Large Normal 246: Game Over

[Dunnstral]

Okay so my solid TR are: Dave,Black,Broccoli,Nurse
Kyou the miller - My read isnt as solid here.I feel i disagree with their dave SR. I feel like dave is doing a decent town play here and i have to wonder what could be Kyous motivation to SR dave. On the other side my gut tells me that Kyou is trying to solve the game. So i am at null here.


Suspects: Hu Tao - Unlike Guillotina their vote on me feels off. She isnt trying to get more posts from me, she just took a comfortable seat from which she posts some witty remarks.
Kawaii - i need more from this slot
Dunn the miller-He kind of vanished, it would be neat if he posted some thoughts of his.

Gut townreading this post

[Dunnstral]

I don't

b

elieve the claim at all. I also don't believe for a second that Hu Tao thought she was actually hammered so the claim itself was no way a twilight-esque spew. It was a calculated gambit.

I think this is town regardless of Hu Tao's alignment

[ssbm_Kyouko]

so far I'm 2 for 2 at identifying the righteousness as town when it is town, yet to find a scumgame with righteousness

please post the links of all game’s you’re searching within

Notes so far:
micro 1094 - town - no righteousness
2318 - town - when she gets in it with Roden over some modifier or something and requotes her signature to Roden a couple of times, and other posts around it, it's clear to me Gamma is town
mini 2315 - town righteousness in smiting that one person who allegedly answered questions quoting buddies from their PT, not scrolling back up to see who it was
defcon - I think this is town but am a little sus (harder to say because I think Gamma and Marci are actually friends and if anything righteousness here is NAI) - when seeing reaction to scum!Marci I think Gamma is town

[gob]

Dunnstral is mafia

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I give myself half a point for correctly reading you in defcon because I had misgivings until seeing your reaction to marci's flip

[Guillotina]

I'm torn between trusting kyouko and voting Gamma and trusting Gamma and voting Keyleth

Someone help

The thing is I only think Key is scum if Kyouko is scum because the thing I latched onto is something I consider a partner tell
VOTE: TimmerRC
How about this instead?

I just find Key's defense of kyouko a bit odd. Like I said she didn't defend her townreads at all in her last game. I'm getting informed vibes there

What is your read on Timmer?

I find Timmer pretty shady, notably some of his posting regarding the claim doesn’t sit well with me

Some of his posting? Show me.

[Guillotina]

What is the current VC?

[Dunnstral]

Can someone explain the voting mechanics this game? And anything else weird about the game.

This is a strange post.

I am okay with myself gone...

Your predecessor claimed Miller btw, can you confirm?

Yea I can confirm. Me and Kyouko are the millers.

This is also a strange post.

I just read over Keyleth's entire ISO in Toriel's Patience and he doesn't defend his townreads like he's doing with kyouko this game. There's one instance of him maybe doing this in post #2791 but other than that, this is just not something town!Keyleth does. He's already defended kyouko multiple times

I think they're both just scum here

That game had a different voting system after the first 2 eliminations, and neither of the first two eliminations was one of her townreads. I don't think these games are comparable.

[gob]

Strange, the second i call Dunnstral scum he calls two random posts of mine weird.

[Dunnstral]

I trust ssbm_Kyouko

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Hu Tao

[Black]

I'm down to wagon Dunnstral

[Black]

Is there an appetite for a Dunn wagon here?

[Dunnstral]

What if I said I was a miller

b

odyguard, and so Hu Tao's claim, while not impossible to be town, feels less likely to come from town?

[Hu Tao]

I think if kyouko flips scum then Keyleth has some partner equity here. These posts feel pretty meh if I consider a scum!kyouko world

Spoiler: Keyleth Quotes

I'm not sure. Dunn's claim felt like a joke with it being the first post of the game. Kyouko's feels more real but I'm not familiar enough with her to tell if it's coming from scum

I feel Duun's claim is genuine, millers often claim miller in their opening posts. Duun's miller claim feels straight up, unlikely that mafia plays this directly. Kyouko feels real/potentially opportunistic, shielding herself behind the initial miller claim if she is mafia

VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko

I understand your thought process. We should probably give them a chance though. At least, I would feel bad voting them out based off that one post when it could be more than one miller. Can't say I personally played with those often so the idea is neat!

Hrm, maybe I'm not seeing it for Kyouko but that could just be the way I play. I'll sit here and let people do their thing though the threadstate seems healthy so I'm not gonna get in yalls way.

Kyouko, Kawaii, and CSF have the most points I should add. So if anyone has suspicions on those slots I'd love to talk them over with you.

So since it's apparent what the situation is, why post at all? 640 feels like a long post about... nothing.

I understand where your post is coming fromI read it as someone just wanting to state the obvious. However, I personally don't really know where to point the smoking gun because I can see it as either side. I've given Dave BOTD because most people push me because of how I play on here, do you think the shade posts are in bad faith?

I can now say Kyouko feels like the same game we were in without being smited phew.

I am so lost over why people want to vote kyouko truthfully, can you spell it out to me like I'm five? Thank you.

Actually I think key is scum and trying to soft protect a town based on that

[Black]

Why would you claim that with no real pressure on you?

If it comes down to you vs. Hu Tao then I'm going with the Miller and the scummier player

[Black]

I think if kyouko flips scum then Keyleth has some partner equity here. These posts feel pretty meh if I consider a scum!kyouko world

Spoiler: Keyleth Quotes

I'm not sure. Dunn's claim felt like a joke with it being the first post of the game. Kyouko's feels more real but I'm not familiar enough with her to tell if it's coming from scum

I feel Duun's claim is genuine, millers often claim miller in their opening posts. Duun's miller claim feels straight up, unlikely that mafia plays this directly. Kyouko feels real/potentially opportunistic, shielding herself behind the initial miller claim if she is mafia

VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko

I understand your thought process. We should probably give them a chance though. At least, I would feel bad voting them out based off that one post when it could be more than one miller. Can't say I personally played with those often so the idea is neat!

Hrm, maybe I'm not seeing it for Kyouko but that could just be the way I play. I'll sit here and let people do their thing though the threadstate seems healthy so I'm not gonna get in yalls way.

Kyouko, Kawaii, and CSF have the most points I should add. So if anyone has suspicions on those slots I'd love to talk them over with you.

So since it's apparent what the situation is, why post at all? 640 feels like a long post about... nothing.

I understand where your post is coming fromI read it as someone just wanting to state the obvious. However, I personally don't really know where to point the smoking gun because I can see it as either side. I've given Dave BOTD because most people push me because of how I play on here, do you think the shade posts are in bad faith?

I can now say Kyouko feels like the same game we were in without being smited phew.

I am so lost over why people want to vote kyouko truthfully, can you spell it out to me like I'm five? Thank you.

Actually I think key is scum and trying to soft protect a town based on that

Yeah that's currently where my read is at too

[ssbm_Kyouko]

STDBINSBICACOT - no righteousness, but scum anyways
guns and roses - no righteousness
Mafia have a Cop - FL says Gamma is "warlocking" and Gamma tells him to DIE - ambiguous from the original post but feels town in the followup convo with FL - 1708 very probably town. The way it ends off has me leaning scum (want to protect X, fine! *vote flavor*). committing to scum. but 1808 is legit again. Final verdict town

^ read Gamma right in STDBINSBICACOT without the righteousness tell, did not guess in G&R, Mafia have a cop was tricky but I got there in the end

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Dunn didn't claim, he said "what if"

relax

[Black]

Dunn didn't claim, he said "what if"

relax

And I'm asking him why he would claim it here. We're both speaking in hypotheticals

You relax

[Hu Tao]

I'm torn between trusting kyouko and voting Gamma and trusting Gamma and voting Keyleth

Someone help

I wouldn't trust gamma so far. I can see key being scum. But I also see some posts that I can see being town so I'm kind of split on that. Anyone else you scumread?

[Black]

Dunn didn't claim, he said "what if"

relax

Also what is this post? He's clearly softing the claim or why else would he bring it up?

[Hu Tao]

I'm not but the votes will probably be telling and as a claimed Miller it might be better that I die sooner rather than later.

I don't think there's anything wrong with point #1 above. 17 players, 4 scum, leaves 12 targets for the NK after a mislim, 13 if we hit scum.

That's about a 9% chance of blocking the kill if the doc is unclaimed and doesnt get killed. This is negligible and if I were scum.i.would not be killing Hu Tao until her chances improved or until I was worried they would start blocking kills on the people I actually want to kill.

N2 after losing another town to a mislim that is an 11% chance of stopping the kill. N3 continues as 1/7 which is maybe 13.5% (estimate). By N4 there is a 20% chance, assuming mislims all along the way. This is the earliest I would ever consider shooting Hu Tao as scum as long as Hu Tao remains suspected

You talking about Hu Tao like an expendable townie and not like scum that needs to be eliminated. "Let's kill them because their chances to block a kill are slim anyway". 9% chance is better than 0% chance.

Ssbm still seems town to me.

[Dunnstral]

I didn't think Hu Tao was going to be eliminated unless the bodyguard comes forward today. ssbm_Kyouko is currently the leading wagon and I don't like that wagon.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I just read in Mafia have a Cop that Gamma hasn't randed scum in like a year so I'm going to skip back a while in her ego because reading that sullies this. So far I would say though I'd put

Gamma

in bold now, as a preferred elimination