Mini 2321: Classic Commercials (Postgame)

[Thomith]

@Mod - i think Wiz voted Gob a couple pages ago.

gob (5): Bingle, Roden, ssbm_kyouko, AnimatedWiz, Naerys


there is scum here somewhere, which kinda sucks, because I town read all 5 of them at times. i just dont see zero scum being on Gob, even if Gob is scum.

Honestly, especially if Gob is scum.

If Gob is town, I almost think it's more likely no scum are on him.

Interested in the explanation of this, because I feel like I disagree.

[Flavor Leaf]

AnimatedWiz (2): Hu Tao, Dunnstral

Something that stands out about this is that I know, and have praised, both Hu Tao and Dunnstral for having exceptionally strong gut reads, but neither of them really ever explain their reads to gain the momentum necessary when town. So it's possible this is on scum.

I might be willing to sheep this with that thought process.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Mod - i think Wiz voted Gob a couple pages ago.

gob (5): Bingle, Roden, ssbm_kyouko, AnimatedWiz, Naerys


there is scum here somewhere, which kinda sucks, because I town read all 5 of them at times. i just dont see zero scum being on Gob, even if Gob is scum.

Honestly, especially if Gob is scum.

If Gob is town, I almost think it's more likely no scum are on him.

Interested in the explanation of this, because I feel like I disagree.

Gob Scum partners always bus in this situation if Gob is scum. It's a Sinking Ship, and they will want to be seen on it.

Like I said earlier, Gob has little to no true support, so if Gob is scum, their teammates have accepted they have to be okay with them going down.

If Gob is town, they have a lot of heat on them, and scum don't need to help push the wagon. Earlier I was pushing Gob pretty hard, and the fact that I'm now off the wagon, and they're close to fade, is a tell that scum are okay with the Gob wagon.

[Thomith]

Why are we assuming that Scum weren't part of the reason for the heat on gob?

[DragonEater70]

@Mod - i think Wiz voted Gob a couple pages ago.

gob (5): Bingle, Roden, ssbm_kyouko, AnimatedWiz, Naerys

My bad, I will correct this straight away!

Edit: corrected.

[Thomith]

@Mod: I'll be V/LA between 15th - 18th December

Should be able to at least follow along, but may not be able to post as frequently.

@Mod: Also just wanna make sure this has been acknowledged, sorry to be annoying.

[Flavor Leaf]

If I were scum in this game, I would let the game sit out, and see if townies jump on Gob before I would join because it's very possible.

I am gaming scum a little bit, because naturally scum want to spread out on Vote Counts, and if Gob flips town, the main suspects become the people on the wagon, so they want to avoid it if they can.

And like I said earlier, if Gob scum, scum have accepted Gob may go down, and will want to gain some distancing cred, so while I don't think both scum would be on it, not impossible, but likely it would be 1.

I don't necessarily think there

isn't

scum on him, I actually believe there is, but just better odds if he is scum that scum is on him.

i personally think 1 scum is on him at least no matter what right now

[Flavor Leaf]

Why are we assuming that Scum weren't part of the reason for the heat on gob?

because I was the main heat on him, and I know im town.

[Flavor Leaf]

It's very possible scum added coal to the fire, and I would lean Bingle or Cakez from the first wagon, and then Wiz for the 2nd wagon.

bunch of different possibilities, but that's where my heat sensors are picking up. could just be bogeys though

[AnimatedWiz]

Can we hold to give me a second to reread this all and catch my bearings because this whole push has felt super fucking weird to me.

You have time—it’s E-2, so I doubt anyone will be able to hammer for a few hours even if they wanted to.

This was actually E-1 since you were on the wagon as well, just not on the Vote Count, correct?

You’re correct, yeah—glad you noticed the discrepancy on the vote count because I didn’t. Thanks for unvoting to give Thomith more time.

[Flavor Leaf]

most scum just do what feels natural on a gamestate level, and that's the natural take.

It's very rare imo scum go against what feels natural, like pairing 3 scum back to back on the same wagon, but that looks a lot better in the long run, and gives you complete day control in certain scenarios. Nobody ever sees that and goes 'oh, they must all be scum' and can get people to actually believe that. Does that make sense?

We are in Day 1, and thus, in a big circular discussion, but I'm trying to just thought spew so people can see where my mind's at.

End of the day, we'll have to make a decision, of course. We're just playing the first layer of this game. Each layer gets more in depth, and we have a better idea of the picture to make better arguments.

Day 1 is a day for theory testing.

[Thomith]

Why are we assuming that Scum weren't part of the reason for the heat on gob?

because I was the main heat on him, and I know im town.

I didn't really mean you.
At the same time, I don't really mean Kyouko either. I'm more talking about the subtle digs at gob that weren't the main pushes.

Minor things like this and this

More major things like this

Not going to go through the entire thread for everything right now, just wanted to give some examples of the kind of things I mean.

[Thomith]

A Gob flip might give us the most information no matter if he flips green or red right now if I think about it due to the last few pages.

[Flavor Leaf]

A Gob flip might give us the most information no matter if he flips green or red right now if I think about it due to the last few pages.

this is where I'm at. The fact that they could just be scum has me thinking they are the best elim today.

I do think Bingle looks rough on a Gob town flip, but I also was adding heat, so I can't really blame them. People were dropping coal by my feet, and I saw, and just threw it on the fire.

I do think that Kyo also did this.

I'm also playing with the idea that Roden has me pocketed, however, them coming into this game pushing me immediately was a play.

But the last time I saw that play happen, was a ScumRCE choosing to nonstop push me Day 1 - Roden was a partner. I even turned on Roden, and got in a 1v1 with Roden in that game, before that exchange lead to me super town reading Roden. Roden replaced out, Hu Tao replaced in. I called out 3 of the 4 scum correctly in that game, but Hu Tao/Roden slot was the one that slipped through, as Hu Tao stated in ANOTHER game that was mainly because of Roden's play.

So I am looking my Roden Read over as well, but it's not a thing I'll figure out Day 1.


My final verdict:

we fade Gob or AnimatedWiz today.

[Flavor Leaf]

so that's where I'm at.

I think Wiz has more likelihood of flipping scum, I think Gob ends with us finding more scum long term, and lower risk overall.

I'm gonna try and sit back, i've done a lot in this session, and went in a lot of circles, but i think we're in an alright spot this game. I am ready to go to another Day phase, personally.

[Hu Tao]

A Gob flip might give us the most information no matter if he flips green or red right now if I think about it due to the last few pages.

I will vote for whoever you vote for

[Thomith]

A Gob flip might give us the most information no matter if he flips green or red right now if I think about it due to the last few pages.

I will vote for whoever you vote for

What the fuck is going on

[Thomith]

I actually don't know how to react to that

Should gob claim now, if we are considering eliminating him?

[AnimatedWiz]

My final verdict:

we fade Gob or AnimatedWiz today.

Care to give your case on me? Wanna make sure I know what I’m up against here.

[Gamma Emerald]

@Mod: I'll be V/LA between 15th - 18th December

Should be able to at least follow along, but may not be able to post as frequently.

@Mod: Also just wanna make sure this has been acknowledged, sorry to be annoying.

Will make sure to keep that in mind, thank you.

[gob]

@Mod - i think Wiz voted Gob a couple pages ago.

gob (5): Bingle, Roden, ssbm_kyouko, AnimatedWiz, Naerys


there is scum here somewhere, which kinda sucks, because I town read all 5 of them at times. i just dont see zero scum being on Gob, even if Gob is scum.

Honestly, especially if Gob is scum.

If Gob is town, I almost think it's more likely no scum are on him.

Interested in the explanation of this, because I feel like I disagree.

Gob Scum partners always bus in this situation if Gob is scum. It's a Sinking Ship, and they will want to be seen on it.

Like I said earlier, Gob has little to no true support, so if Gob is scum, their teammates have accepted they have to be okay with them going down.

If Gob is town, they have a lot of heat on them, and scum don't need to help push the wagon. Earlier I was pushing Gob pretty hard, and the fact that I'm now off the wagon, and they're close to fade, is a tell that scum are okay with the Gob wagon.

Good analysis actually. That's a good point, even if i was mafia here it would be a misplay since the mafia would be setting me up as the bus Day 1.

[Roden]

I have an idea of who's bussing if Gob does flip red here, but it depends on the NK tonight.

[gob]

A Gob flip might give us the most information no matter if he flips green or red right now if I think about it due to the last few pages.

this is where I'm at. The fact that they could just be scum has me thinking they are the best elim today.

I do think Bingle looks rough on a Gob town flip, but I also was adding heat, so I can't really blame them. People were dropping coal by my feet, and I saw, and just threw it on the fire.

I do think that Kyo also did this.

I'm also playing with the idea that Roden has me pocketed, however, them coming into this game pushing me immediately was a play.

But the last time I saw that play happen, was a ScumRCE choosing to nonstop push me Day 1 - Roden was a partner. I even turned on Roden, and got in a 1v1 with Roden in that game, before that exchange lead to me super town reading Roden. Roden replaced out, Hu Tao replaced in. I called out 3 of the 4 scum correctly in that game, but Hu Tao/Roden slot was the one that slipped through, as Hu Tao stated in ANOTHER game that was mainly because of Roden's play.

So I am looking my Roden Read over as well, but it's not a thing I'll figure out Day 1.


My final verdict:

we fade Gob or AnimatedWiz today.

You're probably mafia here because if you were Town you would hard-defend me here, not the half-defense you're giving me. But thanks anyway. I'm down to vote Animated Wizard

[AnimatedWiz]

But thanks anyway. I'm down to vote AnimatedWiz

I feel like if you were actually convinced it was me, you’d actually vote me—I think you’re hesitating because you’re trying to gauge Flavor’s reaction to you saying this before you commit to the vote.

[AnimatedWiz]

I feel that such hesitation doesn’t make sense in a world where gob and Flavor are partnered—gob would simply just wait for Flavor to respond in the PT before making the post instead of making that public