In post 420, Elements wrote:
I feel like I'm being very naysayery about most expressed tonreads this game
But not much has happened yet so :shrug:
Maybe I'm too focused on could rather than would
Yea my recent go-to motto I yoinked off of someone's mafia guide who I can't remember the name of is "Town rely on probability, Mafia rely on possibility". You want to be focused on the probable worlds as a townie, not the crazy paranoia tunnels that are technically a possibility but ultimately not a hugely probable world in the game.
Not saying you're doing that but it's marked a shift in how I read people. Ari could be red and have made that push for townpoints, or she's just town and made a good push. I think the latter is more likely than the former so boom.
In post 278, Ydrasse wrote:
i haven’t been able to find anything really towny from fire, play feels kind of fluffy to me.
In post 278, Ydrasse wrote:
i haven’t been able to find anything really towny from fire, play feels kind of fluffy to me.
What do you mean by fluffy, this in itself sounds opportunistic to me to get on the wagon
i don’t feel like fire is playing to their like… best capabilities right now and is falling back on being more social than actually solving? there’s a lot of the fun posts (and everyone should make fun posts from time to time)
my expectations for a town fire are more than this, it is early but i think most games town fire would have down something explicitly towny to me. that hasn’t happened this game so therefore, wagon. wagon for 1000 years
i had a dream that meuh said "sorry everyone but you can stop voting me, im not a deepwolf" and then i was gonna say "true, you're a shallow wolf" but then i thought that sounded mean so i didn't
In post 380, Black wrote:
After reading the setup my first thought was to fade in the small hood because I liked the odds but fading in the big hood is definitely more intriguing
it feels like a double edge sword, if we fade in the big group we can win, but we also only get assosiatives with 3 players? (kinda, not really but you get what I mean) But limmin in the small group we can get 6 assosiatives to look at ya know?
So to try and explain further with examples:
Day 1 we lim a town in the big hood
Big hood players 1 is actively pushing for the mislim
Small hood players 1 is pushing for a mislim but also protecting someone
The reverse being true for mislimming in the small hood but the protecting associatives can be looked at for 6 players rather than 3
Does that make more sense?
actually yes i think so
it isnt how i would think about it but i follow what you're saying at least
In post 418, OopsieDaisy wrote:
I still wanna sheep Ydra meta stuff and on the surface I like what she's posting
fwiw for me at least the early meta stuff i was thinking about on dann/ydra/ari was mostly just a starting point before we had real posts to look at. im not really taking that into account much at this point (it's always fun to try, but i don't think trying to predict that sort of thing is super likely to be accurate) so idk if i would recommend sheeping it
but i do generally like ydra's posting as well, feels more like she's doing things bc there's actual thoughts behind them rather than for the sake of making it look like she has thoughts
In post 409, Afrayed Knott wrote:
I forgot to add, I don't feel the Meuh wagon at all. but again I could be bias
My read on Meuh slipped when I realised my reason for townreading em was flawed. She originally came into the hood with a more nuanced take on how the hoods should operate and I was like "woah she knows what she's on about I like her". This isn't a good reason to townread someone tho, having that pre-knowledge if anything is very slightly mafia-indicative cause they're the ones who would've been chatting in their pt about the setup and their positioning prior to the start of the game.
My take on the hoods was like, extremely surface level and my analysis I had after thinking about it for like 5 minutes, so this idea is pretty ???
Can't say I adored the post you made right before mine there, not taking a stance (like not even voicing a lean) in whether you want to lim in the big or small hood feels overly passive
In post 409, Afrayed Knott wrote:
I forgot to add, I don't feel the Meuh wagon at all. but again I could be bias
My read on Meuh slipped when I realised my reason for townreading em was flawed. She originally came into the hood with a more nuanced take on how the hoods should operate and I was like "woah she knows what she's on about I like her". This isn't a good reason to townread someone tho, having that pre-knowledge if anything is very slightly mafia-indicative cause they're the ones who would've been chatting in their pt about the setup and their positioning prior to the start of the game.
My take on the hoods was like, extremely surface level and my analysis I had after thinking about it for like 5 minutes, so this idea is pretty ???
Can't say I adored the post you made right before mine there, not taking a stance (like not even voicing a lean) in whether you want to lim in the big or small hood feels overly passive
Actually your hood posting is bad but your recent thought processes do feel genuine so you can be town I guess, but I DO stand by you making some BAD posts!!!
In post 420, Elements wrote:
I feel like I'm being very naysayery about most expressed tonreads this game
But not much has happened yet so :shrug:
Maybe I'm too focused on could rather than would
Yea my recent go-to motto I yoinked off of someone's mafia guide who I can't remember the name of is "Town rely on probability, Mafia rely on possibility". You want to be focused on the probable worlds as a townie, not the crazy paranoia tunnels that are technically a possibility but ultimately not a hugely probable world in the game.
In post 427, OopsieDaisy wrote:
Not saying you're doing that but it's marked a shift in how I read people. Ari could be red and have made that push for townpoints, or she's just town and made a good push. I think the latter is more likely than the former so boom.
In post 332, Ydrasse wrote:
also i don't disagree with the daisy town thing but i think it's probably more helpful to explain in context of this game compared to a meta point that matters... mostly to only the two of you.
The read is all based on that
Daisy and I are good friends irl and I wouldn't be able to resist putting us in a hood together and I like to think she wouldn't either
It's not a read that will nessecerily persist through the rest of the game, but it's the strongest ai thing anyone has done this game given i don't have any idea how anyone else would split the group
i.. don't know if i agree with the AI part, someone has probably done something but we don't have the retrospective view on it yet
also tangentially i was reminded of the space game i played like two years ago offsite that you ran. that was a funny game
In post 344, OopsieDaisy wrote:
If people want me to explain my read on El from an in-game context, I struggle to see why they choose to be in the small hood based on the fact that they're a player who doesn't get consistent early townreads in games (not even from me).
Like if the expectation is that the small hood gets the focus, and you know that you're a player who is often hovering in danger of mislims Day 1, why would that be a good idea? The only answer I find is the WIFOM angle.
this is interesting because - is that actually the expectation of the small hood? i feel like this setup's been ran enough that people who are familiar with it know that you can autowin on D1 which is an alluring choice.
I guess my issue with Ydra's posting can kinda just be seen here?
Both posts are fine and reasonable but the content doesn't feel like really intended to move things but just, exist.
In post 288, Meuh wrote:
Lol Black you’re currently at E-1, good luck
Who in the small hood do you think is most likely to be scum atm
I was thinking Elements, but I have a similar feeling in regards to Ydra that I did the last time I played with her when she was scum, and that fills me with dread
this is a very vague comment, what game are you recalling?
Fire Emblem game on MU
I get a similar feeling when looking at your posts that I dismissed in that game but now feeling them again looking at your posts here, it’s making me concerned
i know that saying "i don't believe this is a real read" or "i heavily doubt the weight of this" is like, a thing that is very hard to argue against in a meaningful way but even doing a cursory skim of that game i'm confused how you have this feeling compared to like... what actually happened this game which has barely started. (and, though this is more kneejerk "what?", even skimming your iso there you were townreading me (going off of searching 'val') like... most if not all of this game searching my name so i'm unsure if i can believe that concern is like... dunno, it's clearly not accurate but i'm struggling for the correct word here. i am unsure if i can put any weight to your solving process i guess, if you're coming up with this?
that being said, i think it would be very weird for you to represent it this way if you were a wolf, with other people in this game that were also in that game, but like... what?
In post 318, Ydrasse wrote:
i feel like that's mean because the essence boils down to "i do not fundamentally understand the comparison between this game and that game and i think it's silly let alone the concern part" but that's probably more succinct of a post.
In post 288, Meuh wrote:
Lol Black you’re currently at E-1, good luck
Who in the small hood do you think is most likely to be scum atm
I was thinking Elements, but I have a similar feeling in regards to Ydra that I did the last time I played with her when she was scum, and that fills me with dread
this is a very vague comment, what game are you recalling?
that I dismissed in that game
if this was in response to what i said: the fact that it doesn't look (?) like it ever manifested makes this harder for me to believe or put weight into (and by extension the honesty of the read). if you're town it sucks that i'm dismissing it and i'm sorry but if you're wolf it's a convenient tool to break out.
In post 288, Meuh wrote:
Lol Black you’re currently at E-1, good luck
Who in the small hood do you think is most likely to be scum atm
I was thinking Elements, but I have a similar feeling in regards to Ydra that I did the last time I played with her when she was scum, and that fills me with dread
this is a very vague comment, what game are you recalling?
that I dismissed in that game
if this was in response to what i said: the fact that it doesn't look (?) like it ever manifested makes this harder for me to believe or put weight into (and by extension the honesty of the read). if you're town it sucks that i'm dismissing it and i'm sorry but if you're wolf it's a convenient tool to break out.
(to clarify more: if you're town and genuinely think i'm wolf i think you should probably case me on the content of this game and we can have a conversation which is more likely to help us find each other than the back and forth over this other game.
or i will never trust you and you will die!!!)
These posts feel like they're easy for her to make as scum, which scares me.
The idea of my read being weird and bad is a genuine one she can have regardless of alignment, and the way she stretches it to four posts could be scum milking something for more content because they can.
Although I guess bewilderment as a townie can also make thoughts take more space like this!
In post 278, Ydrasse wrote:
i haven’t been able to find anything really towny from fire, play feels kind of fluffy to me.
In post 278, Ydrasse wrote:
i haven’t been able to find anything really towny from fire, play feels kind of fluffy to me.
What do you mean by fluffy, this in itself sounds opportunistic to me to get on the wagon
i don’t feel like fire is playing to their like… best capabilities right now and is falling back on being more social than actually solving? there’s a lot of the fun posts (and everyone should make fun posts from time to time)
my expectations for a town fire are more than this, it is early but i think most games town fire would have down something explicitly towny to me. that hasn’t happened this game so therefore, wagon. wagon for 1000 years
I kind of have this expectation regarding you tbh
I feel like when I play with you and you're town I can spot the little things and I go "ooh, Ydrasse is definitely town!" a bunch and it's just. not happening enough to my liking
Which I guess is how I'd elaborate on the link with the Fire Emblem game. In that game I had a few "Ydrasse is probably town" moments but they weren't strong or frequent enough for me to give them the weight that I had there.
I kind of like these posts actually, this is a townie thought
Pedit: Meh idk
I'm concerned that my thoughts like these are exactly what will make me miss you as scum because well, they're just not strong enough to warrant townbinning you
i'm confused how i'm milking it to four posts when there was a reply in between to me
i also think that your complaints about me are nebulous at best - why are they easy, what is wolfy -about- them if i am a wolf? just that i am making them and i have the capacity to?
i guess, the way you're approaching this imo is not very productive which is the same complaint you have about me i guess. you're making a push which is fine but it's not saying a lot to me even though it's -about me-.
I kind of like these posts actually, this is a townie thought
Pedit: Meh idk
I'm concerned that my thoughts like these are exactly what will make me miss you as scum because well, they're just not strong enough to warrant townbinning you
i think that if you are town you are overcorrecting yourself currently into wolfreading me. i think this is probably one of those things you point to and say yes i can make it as wolf and like, yeah, probably could. but from what i'm understanding there's not like a wolf... motivation you're able to siphon out from my posts, i guess you could reply to this and say "ydrasse is just vibing and trying to be townread" but meh, tables turned, weight, etc.
like this all boils into: if i am a wolf there should be more than just worry and potential "this could be ydrasse wolf eek" that you can case from my posts, i think this is strange for a day one push and feels a little overblown to me and that it's not... very productive even if it's just to gauge me rather than try to kill me because you're not giving me a whole lot to dialogue with you about and i'm having to go to vaguer ends than i would like.
![:]](./images/smilies/icon_smiling.png "Cheerful Smile")
