Open 895 - 09:12 PM - Postgame

[Alianna]

2.06

Votecount 2.06

Cook (E-2): Doc and Drew, Elements
Elements (E-2): gob, Cook
Mizuki (1): ssbm_Kyouko
Doc and Drew (1): Black

Not Voting (1): Mizuki

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to secure an execution.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-12-24 14:59:37).

[Elements]

I'm not really sure why everyone is allergic to Elements/Kyoko

Especially Kyouko.

I'm happy to vote kyouko
Given the severe resistance to her wagon yesterday

[gob]

VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko

Lets run it up

[ssbm_Kyouko]

shaddowez

(EXECUTED):

Claptastik

, Doc and Drew, Mizuki, Black, Cook
ssbm_Kyouko (2): Elements,

gob

Elements (1): ssbm_Kyouko
Claptastik (1):

shaddowez

On a mislim wagon Day 1, there is always at least one wolf. Given the night kill was on the shaddowez wagon (Claptastik) I find it more likely there is 1 mafia on shaddowez and 1 mafia off. Why? Because if the mafia NK'd Claptastik on the main shaddowez wagon, it means they aren't scared of making the PoE from the main-wagon being 50/50 with 2 mafia in it.

This leaves Elements / ssbm_kyouko

Between the two I find ssbm_kyouko far more likely to mafia. The main reason is I feel she isn't being as forceful and open as normally. It feels like she was playing scared. Not to mention the difference in activity.

For the on-wagon wolf.

First off I want to mention that Elements and Kyoko together also have w/w equity but that is relatively unlikely. Elements is hard to read at EoD1 for me, but I lean kyoko over Ele for that PoE.

Anyway for the on-wagon wolf,

I don't really find Cook's play at EoD1 to indicate they're wolf. It's possible Cook is trying to go TWTBAW but it just seems really attention-drawing in a bad way for no reason.

Doc and Drew, Mizuki, Black is who I would look at in that PoE. Frankly I feel like they all have wolf equity which is why I dont really want to lim in that pool today.

If I were to guess right now though, Doc and Drew. A lot of Drew's engagement feels fake af.

You're starting from a faulty premise in more than one way here - first off, there are 3 living players off-wagon, and only 2 scum. From any one of our POVs both scum can be off-wagon. More importantly though, Claptastik flipped Roleblocker. I think it's more likely than not that he was speculated to be a PR and killed for that reason. I don't think him being on the wagon is why he was killed, otherwise I feel like Cook would have been the target as she's obviously town off of the fake hammer. Under normal circumstances, I think your assessment is correct and there is 1 scum on, 1 scum off, but in this case I don't think that's a safe assumption to make. In this case it's arbitrary - could be right, but if you're wrong it's a loss. One Day away from ELO is not the time to be assuming a less likely scenario is the case.

What gives Black and Mizuki "wolf equity" for you? What posts of D&D's feel fake?

[Mizuki]

What makes it more likely that Mafia specced Clap as a PR? And Cook being "obviously town" is quite clearly a contested claim here considering she was at E-1 just moments ago. I don't think your NKA tracks here.

[gob]

One of the 3 living players off-wagon is me. I know I am town so that is a moot point. Obviously for you own personal analysis you can do whatever.

I do agree that both scum could be off wagon, however its REALLY unlikely. And if it does exist, it's you and elements. From everyone else's perspective it could be me/ele/kyo of course.
HOWEVER, the night kill being on the main wagon heavily implies there is a wolf off the wagon in this scenario. If there wasn't a wolf off wagon, then the wolf team 100% would've killed off-wagon. Since if they don't kill off wagon in that scenario, they are making the PoE pool of people on the mislim a 50/50. As I explained before.

So there is logic to think there isn't 2 wolves off wagon.

I do understand the PR logic, though. That is all fair. I dont think if im wrong its a loss though lol. However idk, maybe you are right.

You actually are probably right in a way. Like it is most likely one wolf off one wolf on still, but you're right in that if im wrong it's a loss. So the correct play is to go for the wolf on the wagon here. From my point of view it obviously heavily leans ele/kyo but from a more logical neutral view going for the wolf who mislimmed Shaddowez makes more sense.

However in taht I still don't feel Cook is sus so whatever. I feel like too much time has been spent on her at least. We need to sus everyone else who was on that wagon.

I just feel like Black and Mizuki could both possible be scum here. Mizuki the whole AtE angle could come from scum. Some of black's logic in the game I've felt are kind of too easy and too eager also. I'll probably go more indepth there l8r.

Mainly Drew's posts. Gamma not posting that much also pings me but whatever. It just doesn't feel like town drew to me.

[Elements]

VOTE: Kyouko

[Elements]

In 729 - "where do you go when I flip town" implies you think Black is solving

I disagree?
Asking that quesion of anyone can let you see if they're trying to think flexibly or not. It was a question to get a reaction and see how Black is treating my slot. As she's since reconsidered her stance on me it's not important anymore
also, do you never quesiton people you're in 1v1s with?

I didn't answer at the time because I wanted to wait for Black to respond to my question first, then I forgot about it so thatnks for reminding me Mizuki

[gob]

Votecount 1.17


shaddowez (E-1): Claptastik, Doc and Drew, Mizuki, Black
Elements (2): Cook, ssbm_Kyouko
ssbm_Kyouko (2): Elements, gob
Claptastik (1): shaddowez


This one is also kinda telling. Elements and Kyoko are the counter wagons at this point. Earlier it was Doc and Drew and Claptastik btw.

I feel better going Ele/Kyo here. And if i go on wagon, I probably go Doc & Drew.

Anyway tonight I die for sure LOL so yea. If/when i do die, Ele/Kyo i think almost certainly contains a wolf. Doc & Drew is who I would go for on-wagon for shaddowez. Then Mizuki/Black/Cook. Cook I feel like has too much sus on them to really be wolf lol. Could be wrong of course. But the way she jumped on Shaddowez at the EoD1 doesn't really seem like a mafia to me. She would have to be TWTBAW'ing be she really isn't doing that in other ways.

The other people I don't feel good enough talking about since I haven't read their EoD1's.

[Gamma Emerald]

My phone is having an aneurysm so I cannot post from my hydra basically at all rn, so I have to post from main until my phone stops being absolute trash

[Alianna]

My phone is having an aneurysm so I cannot post from my hydra basically at all rn, so I have to post from main until my phone stops being absolute trash

Noted.

[Gamma Emerald]

@Black

I’m having trouble following your thought process. It seems you see Cook+gob as a possible pairing but earlier you said you thought there was 2 scum in D&D/cook/mizuki. Could you walk me through that? Who do see as possible partners for us/Mizuki?

[gob]

How about we find one mafia before talking about pairings.

The fact so many people are devoting brain power to Cook + me being a team when I know I'm not mafia at least is a little baffling. If you think I am scummy, then explain why I am scummy. But to blanketly say "they could be a pair lol" is not helpful. It doesn't give any insightful commentary on either of our posts. It doesn't explain why my defense of Cook is wrong or misplaced. All it is a worthless shade.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What makes it more likely that Mafia specced Clap as a PR? And Cook being "obviously town" is quite clearly a contested claim here considering she was at E-1 just moments ago. I don't think your NKA tracks here.

Shooting randomly, mafia would have a 1/3 chance of hitting a PR, or 2/5 if you assume Cook is town and trueclaimed about being VT. Both of these are less than 50% so it makes it more than likely he was targeted as a PR rather than randomly flipped as a PR.

Also if you look at Cook's E-1 wagon there was Black who herself says Cook is probably town from the fake hammer, and Elements who has literally voted every slot in the game except shaddowes'. Saying she was just at E-1 sounds a lot worse than it was imo.

I think I'm more likely to be correct here than gob

[gob]

What exactly is your conclusion Kyouko? You saying Elements is mafia here?

I take some issue with this analysis cause a lot of it is assuming things.

[Gamma Emerald]

How about we find one mafia before talking about pairings.

The fact so many people are devoting brain power to Cook + me being a team when I know I'm not mafia at least is a little baffling. If you think I am scummy, then explain why I am scummy. But to blanketly say "they could be a pair lol" is not helpful. It doesn't give any insightful commentary on either of our posts. It doesn't explain why my defense of Cook is wrong or misplaced. All it is a worthless shade.

This feels a bit disingenuous, I have not really made much note of any partner theories of my own apart from saying cook + elements aren’t partnered. I’m mainly pressing Black on it since I feel like her reads are disorderly.

[Black]

Sorry I'm here I just had a bad day. I'll respond to stuff tomorrow

Still 6 days in the deadline. We're gucci

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What exactly is your conclusion Kyouko? You saying Elements is mafia here?

I take some issue with this analysis cause a lot of it is assuming things.

My "conclusion", if you want to call it that, is that Cook being at E-1 recently is not really strong evidence to refute that she is obviously town from the hammer, given the makeup of the wagon. Mizuki said her being E-1 makes her not obviously town from the fake-hammer reaction, but one of the players voting her believes her reaction was towny and another has voted every slot except for one. I don't think that makes as convincing a case against Cook being the towniest on the shaddowes wagon as Mizuki claims.

Furthermore, your analysis also makes an assumption, a less likely assumption, that scum killed Clap because he was on the wagon and not because they thought he was a PR. If scum were killing someone on the wagon for "numeric" reasons like you're suggesting, I think it's far more likely they would kill Cook than Claptastik.

Do you contest anything specific in my reasoning? I feel like you're the one making unsupported claims here

[Doc and Drew]

My phone is having an aneurysm so I cannot post from my hydra basically at all rn, so I have to post from main until my phone stops being absolute trash

@Black

I’m having trouble following your thought process. It seems you see Cook+gob as a possible pairing but earlier you said you thought there was 2 scum in D&D/cook/mizuki. Could you walk me through that? Who do see as possible partners for us/Mizuki?

How about we find one mafia before talking about pairings.

The fact so many people are devoting brain power to Cook + me being a team when I know I'm not mafia at least is a little baffling. If you think I am scummy, then explain why I am scummy. But to blanketly say "they could be a pair lol" is not helpful. It doesn't give any insightful commentary on either of our posts. It doesn't explain why my defense of Cook is wrong or misplaced. All it is a worthless shade.

This feels a bit disingenuous, I have not really made much note of any partner theories of my own apart from saying cook + elements aren’t partnered. I’m mainly pressing Black on it since I feel like her reads are disorderly.

Things seem to be working better now so quoting these to put them into hydra ISO
-Drew

[Doc and Drew]

Feels somewhat like we’re being talked past? Most people are absorbed in their own debates from what I’m seeing
-Drew

[Black]

I started a new job today so my activity during day time hours is going to plummet. I'll have to do all my catching up at night (central American time)

[gob]

Everyone list your height.

We will listen to the tallest person here

Ill start

6’5 or 196cm

[Black]

Liar

Jigglypuff is 1'8"

[Mizuki]

Spoiler: Kyouko Quotes

What exactly is your conclusion Kyouko? You saying Elements is mafia here?

I take some issue with this analysis cause a lot of it is assuming things.

My "conclusion", if you want to call it that, is that Cook being at E-1 recently is not really strong evidence to refute that she is obviously town from the hammer, given the makeup of the wagon. Mizuki said her being E-1 makes her not obviously town from the fake-hammer reaction, but one of the players voting her believes her reaction was towny and another has voted every slot except for one. I don't think that makes as convincing a case against Cook being the towniest on the shaddowes wagon as Mizuki claims.

Furthermore, your analysis also makes an assumption, a less likely assumption, that scum killed Clap because he was on the wagon and not because they thought he was a PR. If scum were killing someone on the wagon for "numeric" reasons like you're suggesting, I think it's far more likely they would kill Cook than Claptastik.

Do you contest anything specific in my reasoning? I feel like you're the one making unsupported claims here

What makes it more likely that Mafia specced Clap as a PR? And Cook being "obviously town" is quite clearly a contested claim here considering she was at E-1 just moments ago. I don't think your NKA tracks here.

Shooting randomly, mafia would have a 1/3 chance of hitting a PR, or 2/5 if you assume Cook is town and trueclaimed about being VT. Both of these are less than 50% so it makes it more than likely he was targeted as a PR rather than randomly flipped as a PR.

Also if you look at Cook's E-1 wagon there was Black who herself says Cook is probably town from the fake hammer, and Elements who has literally voted every slot in the game except shaddowes'. Saying she was just at E-1 sounds a lot worse than it was imo.

I think I'm more likely to be correct here than gob

shaddowez

(EXECUTED):

Claptastik

, Doc and Drew, Mizuki, Black, Cook
ssbm_Kyouko (2): Elements,

gob

Elements (1): ssbm_Kyouko
Claptastik (1):

shaddowez

On a mislim wagon Day 1, there is always at least one wolf. Given the night kill was on the shaddowez wagon (Claptastik) I find it more likely there is 1 mafia on shaddowez and 1 mafia off. Why? Because if the mafia NK'd Claptastik on the main shaddowez wagon, it means they aren't scared of making the PoE from the main-wagon being 50/50 with 2 mafia in it.

This leaves Elements / ssbm_kyouko

Between the two I find ssbm_kyouko far more likely to mafia. The main reason is I feel she isn't being as forceful and open as normally. It feels like she was playing scared. Not to mention the difference in activity.

For the on-wagon wolf.

First off I want to mention that Elements and Kyoko together also have w/w equity but that is relatively unlikely. Elements is hard to read at EoD1 for me, but I lean kyoko over Ele for that PoE.

Anyway for the on-wagon wolf,

I don't really find Cook's play at EoD1 to indicate they're wolf. It's possible Cook is trying to go TWTBAW but it just seems really attention-drawing in a bad way for no reason.

Doc and Drew, Mizuki, Black is who I would look at in that PoE. Frankly I feel like they all have wolf equity which is why I dont really want to lim in that pool today.

If I were to guess right now though, Doc and Drew. A lot of Drew's engagement feels fake af.

You're starting from a faulty premise in more than one way here - first off, there are 3 living players off-wagon, and only 2 scum. From any one of our POVs both scum can be off-wagon. More importantly though, Claptastik flipped Roleblocker. I think it's more likely than not that he was speculated to be a PR and killed for that reason. I don't think him being on the wagon is why he was killed, otherwise I feel like Cook would have been the target as she's obviously town off of the fake hammer. Under normal circumstances, I think your assessment is correct and there is 1 scum on, 1 scum off, but in this case I don't think that's a safe assumption to make. In this case it's arbitrary - could be right, but if you're wrong it's a loss. One Day away from ELO is not the time to be assuming a less likely scenario is the case.

What gives Black and Mizuki "wolf equity" for you? What posts of D&D's feel fake?

I still disagree with your NK spec but lets shelve that for right now: Where is all this actually leading you right now? Did you enter this debate just because you think gob is on the wrong path, or did you enter to actually try and push the votes somewhere?

Because after waking up and re-reading this conversation, it kinda just ends up reading to me like you're arguing with gob to argue with him. There's

analysis

here, sure, but it doesn't seem like you're actively trying to advance things here, just throw up a roadblock in gob's path.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I do think gob is on the wrong path. So far gob has responded as I think town should - there's no concrete evidence he is being willingly ignorant here.

I do suspect him, and if he's scum then Elements certainly isn't his partner, which means his partner is off-wagon amongst you, D&D, Black, and Cook.

If gob is town, his theory is still less likely than Clap being killed because Clap was a PR, which makes the Elements lim a crapshoot without some additional evidence.

I think you're the most likely to be scum here and as long as gob is advocating for a lim within myself and Elements, he won't be voting you. If he is town, I still need to work with him despite his obstructed worldview, and the easiest way to do that I think is to show him where he's going wrong