Mini 2321: Classic Commercials (Postgame)

[AnimatedWiz]

As much as I’m onboard with shading Dunn, I’m not sure if the logic about Dunn trying to make me look bad through the Nk holds up when I think about it—Kyouko and I had our scuffle, but after I thought about her content and the possible reasoning behind it, she become one of my top townreads, and vice versa.

If I was scum, wouldn’t I want her to die so that our mutual townreads looked great for me? And wouldn’t that make Dunn look worse?

[AnimatedWiz]

Wait, I think I understand what you’re saying—that the play benefits me so much that you think I wouldn’t actually do it, and that someone (Dunn) is probably framing me?

Or am I holding the idiot ball again?

[Dunnstral]

Not like she wasn’t obv town though right

Sure, but anybody would have wanted to kill her then.

[Celebloki]

I wasn't great at explaining my line of reasoning. Really the short of it was that there was an odd trio there, with Kyouko's flip that leaves you and Wiz as T/S in my eyes. I just TR Wiz way more than you so want to push there. The rest of the game is pretty dead. I'll do a current vibe list. The groups them selves are in no particular order, just groupings of similar towniness/scumminess.

Town

Hu Tao
Wiz

Thom
Naerys

FL
Bingle
RCE
Cakez

Roden
Dunn

Scum

The Yellow tier is the odd null group for me. There's similar buddying and theater within this but I can't figure out who the wolves could be. Cakez might belong in the group below, I haven't really fully decided yet.

[Celebloki]

Wait, I think I understand what you’re saying—that the play benefits me so much that you think I wouldn’t actually do it, and that someone (Dunn) is probably framing me?

Or am I holding the idiot ball again?

This is basically what I was getting at.

[Dunnstral]

Wait, I think I understand what you’re saying—that the play benefits me so much that you think I wouldn’t actually do it, and that someone (Dunn) is probably framing me?

Or am I holding the idiot ball again? :oops:

If anybody is trying to frame here, Celebloki is the one who brought up the kill and pointed at people, not I.

[AnimatedWiz]

Wait, I think I understand what you’re saying—that the play benefits me so much that you think I wouldn’t actually do it, and that someone (Dunn) is probably framing me?

Or am I holding the idiot ball again?

This is basically what I was getting at.

Thank you for explaining—I think my head’s a little wonky after work today.

[Flavor Leaf]

Not like she wasn’t obv town though right

Sure, but anybody would have wanted to kill her then.

Yeah, i think Kyouko just died because scum were content with gamestate, so they killed a obv townie.

I also think it means scum are for sure off the wagon too.

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, I was hard town reading Celeblokiyesterday, but some of the things they’ve been saying today just ping me.

And i don’t remember ever being pinged when they are actually scum, even when i would go over the possibility of them being scum.

I only have one game where i had to read them, though, the other i was scum and they were town.

Their reads list looks political too

[Flavor Leaf]

I just don’t really buy Hu Tao as a top town read here.

Even by Hu Tao’s own statement, they haven’t really done much.

And while I scum read Hu Tao, it doesn’t mean I think they’re always scum here, and I might think that I lean town Hu Tao because I’m scum reading them, if that makes sense.

But the very top? Hu Tao? Someone who actively gets town read as scum?

Yeah, I don’t buy that.

The post they made before Thomith voted also pinged me a little, the “I’m back” kinda post.

I didn’t want to go off of just that, but with the political reads list, Celebloki dropped a bunch for me.

I feel it’s possible Celeb/Dunn?

But Cakez is right, we definitely should take some time for today.

[Flavor Leaf]

The reason it doesn’t ping me as much when Thomith puts Hu Tao to the top is because if Hu Tao is in fact scum, even if they aren’t at this point, then Hu Tao setup that pocket on Thomith early.

And even if Hu Tao town, I can still see a world where the 2 of them specifically just found each other as town.

That’s the difference between Thomith putting Hu Tao at the top and Celeb here.

[Flavor Leaf]

There’s also no explanation on Celeb’s read for Hu Tao, unless I’m missing it somewhere.

[Celebloki]

I'll be real, my town read of Hu Tao is mostly hinging on one game that ended recently where she was town and I hard tunneled her for what now I can only describe as playstyle differences. I thought she was clearly scum and found a lot of her behavior to be anti-town. Turns out she was town and I guess she just plays that way. I see similarities to that here and I felt I needed to look at her differently and not let myself get back into that tunnel. Like I said in a previous post, I'm in my Hu Tao town arc and at least for D2 am going to blindly TR her.

My Wiz and Thom reads are sheeps of Kyouko. I find her to generally have good reads (-gob, he's an odd duck to read). I do find Wiz towny outside of that though. He seems to be providing good content.

I don't see Naerys being any different here to any other game I've been in with her. She has an odd posting style as well, but I've only ever played with her as town. Until I can see a confirmed scum game of hers I can't really interpret her style here any differently and I don't see any independently scummy posts from here this game.

The Yellow and Red sections are basically everyone else that I either have a harder time reading, or have been at odds with those that I TR.

[Flavor Leaf]

I am in this spot where I understand that I could be wrong about Roden. That being said, I genuinely do feel like they are town, and if they are scum, then yeah, that's a testament to the RodenScum play to pocket me this game. I see a small case where that is true, but for the most part, I'd have to have hopped into the pocket, and they just allowed it.

I like to be convinced by players otherwise to have my reads moved, and I'm okay with town reading scum and vice versa, especially in the early day phases.

So @Bingle - if you are town, and see that I'm town, and truly think RodenScum, it's gonna take a bit more to get me out of that pocket. I'm open to the idea. By defending Roden going forward, I should start to see where I'm wrong, if I'm wrong.

I'm not invested in a Wiz/Dunnstral TvS narrative, and think that's lightweight being forced.

[Flavor Leaf]

at least for D2 am going to blindly TR her.

this doesn't line up with how I've seen your town play before. This is why I'm being thrown off a bit.

Hu Tao also specifically stated they're playing this way on purpose, meaning they are exactly aware of it as well.

Same with the sheeping reads of Thomith and Wiz. I think there are plenty of better reasons to town read both of them, and Kyouko was actively pushing Wiz pretty hard at one point yesterday too. Hu Tao also ended the day on Wiz. So while what you're saying checks out to an extent, it doesn't really match up.

It's pinging me because I'm generally able to see your posts and go, dang, that's some under the radar good analysis, even when they aren't necessarily correct.

And a big reason I can see for this is CelebScum trying to be genuine, but they cant truly replicate it because they aren't coming from a town POV.

Why's your read on Roden so low?

[Flavor Leaf]

@Dunnstral - say you somehow found out that Wiz and I were both conf town, who's scum for you?

[Flavor Leaf]

I have someone else I want to put some pressure on, but I think I want to wait a bit for people to come in and react to the current things before I move on.

I’m open to a Dunn/Wiz town/town world.

[Celebloki]

Why's your read on Roden so low?

My read list could probably have used another category between the yellow and orange section. Dunn in a category at the bottom on his own as my only real scum read, then one above with Cakez and Roden as more of a null scum section. The Yellow section is really just my null section. My Roden read is more of a hindsight read after gob's flip. gob didn't do himself any favors, but some of Roden's pushes on the gob wagon could be construed as a bit TMI'ey or in bad faith. Same argument that was used for Dunn by you in 835 for hammering gob after the fake Doc claim could be made on Roden for trying to swat down the doc claim in Roden's 806 or 813 so that his wagon wouldn't get derailed. I think this argument on Roden

is

a bit of a stretch, but I'm not ready to run a case or hard push on Roden over it atp. He's just further down in my suspicion list.

[Roden]

I hard pushed Gob because he flat out said he was going to play scummy and not defend himself because getting mislimmed would benefit his meta. So he was either town and playing against wincon in order to fare better in a future game, or he was scum who was open wolfing. Which is partially why I linked a scum game of his where he open Wolfe. Either way this wasn't really a slot that should stay in the game, and when he faked a Doc claim I knew it wasn't real because of everything he did leafing up to it.

[Flavor Leaf]

i was lean towning Gob by the end of it, and thought their death was best for the game to an eventual solve.

I still stand by that.

[Bingle]

I wasn't great at explaining my line of reasoning. Really the short of it was that there was an odd trio there, with Kyouko's flip that leaves you and Wiz as T/S in my eyes. I just TR Wiz way more than you so want to push there. The rest of the game is pretty dead. I'll do a current vibe list. The groups them selves are in no particular order, just groupings of similar towniness/scumminess.

Town

Hu Tao
Wiz

Thom
Naerys

FL
Bingle
RCE
Cakez

Roden
Dunn

Scum

The Yellow tier is probably all town.

I fixed that for you. Yellow squad unite!

[Dunnstral]

@Dunnstral - say you somehow found out that Wiz and I were both conf town, who's scum for you?

Celeboki.

[Thomith comes in and quotes my post and says 'Why?']

They would be setting up to vote from AnimatedWiz after my flip, and their reasoning for suspecting me doesn't seem well though out. The whole triangle th ing doesn't seem well thought out to me.

[Bingle]

So @Bingle - if you are town, and see that I'm town, and truly think RodenScum, it's gonna take a bit more to get me out of that pocket. I'm open to the idea. By defending Roden going forward, I should start to see where I'm wrong, if I'm wrong.

Im not actually sold on Roden scum, I just don’t think there’s much going for the townreads on him and I wanted to light a fire under his ass to see who got spooked. I’m gonna take your promise of keeping an eye on the slot at face value and say mission accomplished.

[Bingle]

I have been having an inordinately difficult time remembering to solve celeb this game and I know why and yet I still keep not putting much thought into their posts and that annoys me.

[Bingle]

So… someone on Dunn teal deer me the case on Dunn.