Large Normal 246: Game Over

[Guillotina]

I am back.

Anyway i think plan of mod was like:
1. Haha i put two millers and they fight with claiming D1!!!
2. Haha i also put rolecop who can get innocents from them
3. I also give mafia alien which punishes claiming millers by protecting them from rolecop!!!

So maybe two millers is not that terrible that i predicted, but two friendly neighbours... Also make sense.

Need to understand that they most likely are real. There's little reason to chain self to buddy so they confirm you, if that's case it will be evident pretty fast. So FL claims are almost always town.
Targets... Not necessarily.


I find strange fact that mafia just killed rolecop with living doctor claim. Main point is Strange. Not suspicious. Maybe they didn't believe claim at first place (i had suspicions because insisting on not claiming target is bruh)

And MACHO BODYGUARD DISLOYAL VIG... Wait this is another innocent for rolecop. Didn't really notice it before.


Yeaaaah, it's overtaked in town favor, something not real, and i have no clue what exactly.

Whst is so BRUH about not claiming your targets as doctor? Not claiming them makes it harder for scum to try to predict whom i cant protect the following night and they’d just hit me. It is obvious scum couldnt wait to kill the rolecop so much that they took the risk.

You didn't claim indecisive until after you were out of shots

Uhuh. And?

[Guillotina]

Also i dont like Kyouko saying kill Guillo down the line if they are alive, seems like an easy way for town to lose to me.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Spoiler: length

I'm just going to post everything I have so far, there are times where I was thinking dave should and shouldn't claim modifiers so you'll see sometimes I talk as if he should hide them and others I consider disloyal versus simple.

Black - Babysitter Hider
Celeb - Rolecop
Kawaii - VT

Hu Tao - VT
Elements - VT
Broccoli Quest 2 - VT
Enchant - VT
TimmerRC - VT

Dunnstral - Miller
ssbm_Kyouko - Miller
Andresvmb - Odd Night Messenger Even Night Friendly Neighbor
Naerys - 1-Shot Friendly Neighbor
Guillotina - 2-Shot Indecisive Doctor
Random Nurse - Macho Combined Bodyguard Disloyal Vigilante
davesaz - Simple/Disloyal (guessing modifier) Neighborizer

vs.

Gamma - Goon
Roden - Complex Alien

Guillo and RN are the most suspicious claims, but RNs claim is more valuable

RN bodyguards dave
dave checks Guillo or a VT

12 alive, 10-2
1 8-2
2 6-2
3 4-2
4 2-2

We get 3 mislims before MELO, 4 lims total
Could be scum are 1-1 or 2-0/0-2 between VTs/PRs.

Assuming there is scum in the VTs, if we lim there, scum would have to kill PRs, because killing a VT would leave 4 VTs and we have 4 mislims.
Let's look at the possibilty there are 2 scum in the PR claims - if we can establish this is not the case, it means there is at least one in the VTs and we can lim in there.
Dunnstral was not neighborized by Dann - Dann is probably either disloyal or simple, so I could see Dunn as just being town here.
Kyouko - I know I'm town but am otherwise unconfirmed by any PR results
Andres - if he's scum it means Dunnstral is too. Dunnstral is probably not scum which means by extension Andres's FN claim checks out and he's town. Andres can send a message to someone toNight to confirm that half of his role as well, and toMorrow night he'll also be able to confirm himself to someone else and that will entirely rule him out of being scum because there are only 2 left
Naerys - same thing as Andres, if she is scum it is with Guillo
Guillo - suspicious that the claim is 2-shot so it now can't be used to help out anymore. With Mafia having an Alien they could stop or kill an ungated Doc
RN - if he's town he can confirm townies every day he doesn't die, and if he's scum he still has to provide us with results in either the PRs or the VTs to narrow things down
Dave - has softed his role is either Simple or Disloyal and will be a prime target for NKs if he is town

It seems unlikely fmpov there are 2 scum amongst the PRs unless it's exactly {Guillo, Naerys} meaning there should be at least 1 in the VTs. Could also be {RN, Dunnstral} - Dunnstral is definitely capable of fabricating RN's claim for him

VTs:

Hu Tao
Elements
BQ2
Enchant - knowing dave's modifiers will shed light on whether this could really be a VT, I don't think there are any goons left. If we kill this and it flips scum PR we will know dave is disloyal but the way he says Enchant is a goon I lean toward simple meaning this is likely just a mislim given town's power level
Timmer

PRs:
Dunnstral - being confirmed/flipped would confirm andres
Kyouko - none
Andres - can send a message to confirm he is a messenger / is confirmed if Dunn is confirmed
Naerys - is confirmed if Guillo is confirmed
Guillo - can be pseudo-confirmed by dave regardless of his modifier, or confirmed if dave is disloyal - disloyal seems too strong for the setup though
RN - can confirm townies every day
Dave - able to confirm other PRs if simple

If we are left with Guillo/Naerys or Andres/Dunn after 3 mislims (6 alive), Dunn/Guillo should contain a scum (Guillo dies first if all 4 live)

All these role make Traffic Analyst very likely for mafia.
An Informed TA could give them the edge if they were informed about things like the existence of dave's role or the existence of FNs (this makes Guillo/Naerys suspect)
Could also see a Simple Alien or similar being able to fuck with the interactions with VTs.
I think Mafia either have 3 PRs, or one of andres/naerys/RN is lying due to "Friendly Neighbor" and "Vigilante" being town-only in normals, which means these are further ways for town to get clears
Probably Mafia have 3 PRs, the flipped Complex Alien, a Traffic Analyst (possibly informed), and something else that can interfere with clears like, idk, a disloyal/simple rolestopper or even a disloyal jailkeeper would look pretty towny to a rolecop, no?


Babysitter Hider is swingy and combined bodyguard disloyal vigilante can be swingy too I guess, can either kill himself or get clears, and given mafia had an alien he wouldn't be able to do anything once his role came out so it's not too imbalanced in town's favor in that respect.

I think Andres should send a message to dave as a way of checking if dave is being rolestopped or aliened, and RN should bodyguard dave. assuming NAR (https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... ormal_Game), even if andres is NKed, dave would get the message:

Killing doesn't stop the actions of the dead player. (Imagine that all kills happen at the end of the night, and everyone pulls the trigger simultaneously.) This means that kills generally do not affect other actions for the purpose of the Golden Rule.

Scum could risk blocking Andres but in this case dave's hood would go off and as long as he doesn't reveal his target or modifiers, scum will be incentivized to stop dave from getting clears/guilties / frame his targets

How is anyone getting blocked by mafia if their roleblocker (alien) died yesterday?

I think given 2 FNs, and Rolecop with 3 clears to be found between 2 millers and a vig, as well as the ability to find the FNs as town if they message the dead, or message scum that later get flipped, or get blocked, that a second interference PR from scum makes sense. Otherwise it feels like too much town power. Maybe no block can happen because one or more of the town PRs is lying, and a single Alien was balanced, but in that case I think the clears start pouring in

[Guillotina]

Alright ive caught up

The PoE (leaving out claims and mafia spew) are:

Enchanter
Timmer
Hu Tao
Dunn

Is this correct?

[Guillotina]

Have to go, I’ll be back later

[Random Nurse]

I think I have to lock-in and declare exactly who I'm targeting tonight otherwise Scum will take advantage of the lack of clarity. For now I will be targeting Hu Tao: if HT is Scum I'll die, if Town we both live (?).

[davesaz]

I think using the bodyguard makes more sense in case I find a liar. Maybe save the sacrifice vig attempt for when no investigative to protect.

[Dunnstral]

I am back.

Anyway i think plan of mod was like:
1. Haha i put two millers and they fight with claiming D1!!!
2. Haha i also put rolecop who can get innocents from them
3. I also give mafia alien which punishes claiming millers by protecting them from rolecop!!!

So maybe two millers is not that terrible that i predicted, but two friendly neighbours... Also make sense.

Need to understand that they most likely are real. There's little reason to chain self to buddy so they confirm you, if that's case it will be evident pretty fast. So FL claims are almost always town.
Targets... Not necessarily.


I find strange fact that mafia just killed rolecop with living doctor claim. Main point is Strange. Not suspicious. Maybe they didn't believe claim at first place (i had suspicions because insisting on not claiming target is bruh)

And MACHO BODYGUARD DISLOYAL VIG... Wait this is another innocent for rolecop. Didn't really notice it before.


Yeaaaah, it's overtaked in town favor, something not real, and i have no clue what exactly.

Whst is so BRUH about not claiming your targets as doctor? Not claiming them makes it harder for scum to try to predict whom i cant protect the following night and they’d just hit me. It is obvious scum couldnt wait to kill the rolecop so much that they took the risk.

You didn't claim indecisive until after you were out of shots

Uhuh. And?

So even if you had claimed your target, mafia would not have assumed you could not target that person again.

[Dunnstral]

I think I have to lock-in and declare exactly who I'm targeting tonight otherwise Scum will take advantage of the lack of clarity. For now I will be targeting Hu Tao: if HT is Scum I'll die, if Town we both live (?).

If you target davesaz, your role functions as a bodyguard so it is harder for davesaz to die. And davesaz has a role which can reveal whether someone is a vanilla role or not.

[Dunnstral]

Alright ive caught up

The PoE (leaving out claims and mafia spew) are:

Enchanter
Timmer
Hu Tao
Dunn

Is this correct?

No I don't think so

[Enchant]

I am back.

Anyway i think plan of mod was like:
1. Haha i put two millers and they fight with claiming D1!!!
2. Haha i also put rolecop who can get innocents from them
3. I also give mafia alien which punishes claiming millers by protecting them from rolecop!!!

So maybe two millers is not that terrible that i predicted, but two friendly neighbours... Also make sense.

Need to understand that they most likely are real. There's little reason to chain self to buddy so they confirm you, if that's case it will be evident pretty fast. So FL claims are almost always town.
Targets... Not necessarily.


I find strange fact that mafia just killed rolecop with living doctor claim. Main point is Strange. Not suspicious. Maybe they didn't believe claim at first place (i had suspicions because insisting on not claiming target is bruh)

And MACHO BODYGUARD DISLOYAL VIG... Wait this is another innocent for rolecop. Didn't really notice it before.


Yeaaaah, it's overtaked in town favor, something not real, and i have no clue what exactly.

Whst is so BRUH about not claiming your targets as doctor? Not claiming them makes it harder for scum to try to predict whom i cant protect the following night and they’d just hit me. It is obvious scum couldnt wait to kill the rolecop so much that they took the risk.

Because doctors have no reason to hide target commonly, unless they can't protect same target twice in a row.
You didn't claim modifier, you claimed it exist.

[Jingle]

@mod

- if a Traffic Analyst checked a Friendly Neighbor (both unmodified), would the TA receive a "Can Communicate" result assuming no other interference?

Yes.

[Jingle]

Vote Count 3.1

TimmerRC

(E-5):

Broccoli Quest 2

, Elements, ssbm_Kyouko,

Elements

(E-6): Andresvmb

Enchant

(E-6):

Broccoli Quest 2

,

Broccoli Quest 2

,

Hu Tao

, TimmerRC,

Elements

Broccoli Quest 2

(E-6): Enchant

Andresvmb

(E-7):

Elements

,

Broccoli Quest 2

Naerys

(E-7):

Andresvmb

Hu Tao

(E-7):

Dunnstral

(E-7):

ssbm_Kyouko

(E-7):

davesaz

(E-7):

Guillotina

(E-7):

Random Nurse

(E-7):

Not Voting

: Random Nurse, Naerys, davesaz, Guillotina, Dunnstral, Hu Tao, Broccoli Quest 2

With 12 alive it takes 7 to eject a player from the Game.

Deadline is (expired on 2024-01-02 14:00:00).

Mod Notes: Due to Christmas and New Years, the deadline is extended. I will be a little more lenient on prods over this period, but please let me know if you plan to be V/LA due to the holidays so that you don't accidentally get replaced.

[Enchant]

I think using the bodyguard makes more sense in case I find a liar. Maybe save the sacrifice vig attempt for when no investigative to protect.

Idk, assuming both town, mafia will have choice between letting to confirm Hu Tao as town (direct faction check) or letting you get VT/Not VT result (which may or may not be condemning).

If anything, RN has more valuable role than you, and probably dies to not give more confirms/frame RN target. So you can as well stop caring about dying for night, you still get result.

If RN wants to target Hu Tao, why not.

Of course, unless there's yet another mafia blocking role. Then you both are kinda boned, but atleast we will learn that.

[Hu Tao]

I think I have to lock-in and declare exactly who I'm targeting tonight otherwise Scum will take advantage of the lack of clarity. For now I will be targeting Hu Tao: if HT is Scum I'll die, if Town we both live (?).

Read Kyouko's message. Do you agree or no

[Hu Tao]

We need Dave alive. RN can you please target Dave

[Enchant]

Hu Tao doesn't want to be checked. Okay.

VOTE: Hu Tao

[Hu Tao]

Do you not see how Dave is important to winning the game

[Enchant]

Do you not see how Dave is important to winning the game

Dave won't die anyway. Mafia can't kill two people at same night.

Difference being that Bodyguard confirms as Town/Not Town. And Dave confirms as VT/Not VT.
First is obviously more valuable, so Dave doesn't need protection.

[Guillotina]

VOTE: Timmer

[Guillotina]

What was the task I was supposed to do again? I forgot

[Guillotina]

Anyway I think Enchant might be town. Though not really sure who would be scum here.

Guillo, when you have time any chance you go over associations again and see who can and can't be cleared off of Roden and Gamma?

Oh this, yah I'm gonna work on this now

[Guillotina]

It's been awhile, remind me why voting millers is the best option?

Slight chance mafia fakeclaims miller
They're guilty if investigated
If telling the truth, miller
If lying, mafia

I’m less inclined to vote a miller specifically because there’s more than one miller claim, it suggests that an investigative exists that can clear millers imo.

Posting this to bookmark it

[Guillotina]

I'm not sure. Dunn's claim felt like a joke with it being the first post of the game. Kyouko's feels more real but I'm not familiar enough with her to tell if it's coming from scum

I feel Duun's claim is genuine, millers often claim miller in their opening posts. Duun's miller claim feels straight up, unlikely that mafia plays this directly. Kyouko feels real/potentially opportunistic, shielding herself behind the initial miller claim if she is mafia

VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko

This feels remarkably convoluted

[Guillotina]

VOTE: Kyouko

VOTE: Kyouko

Why did you 2 vote Kyouko?

My preliminary reads:

Town

Black
Kawaii

Mixed Feelings

Kyouko

Scum

Naerys
Hu
Gamma
Celebloki

What makes you think I’m scum individually? You said I might be scum with Kyouko for a post bug she’s in “mixed feelings”