Mini Normal 2322: Game Over

[geraintm]

I've got nothing tonadd today from last night BTW

C'mon man. There are almost 40 pages of game. To quote Vincent Vega, right before he shot some dude in the face, you gotta have an opinion

I was posting at 11:20pm on Xmas eve. You were lucky I logged on

[DragonEater70]

*sigh*

[DragonEater70]

Pav care to explain the vote on me

[DragonEater70]

MY READS

WELCOME TO AMOGUS CITY

He got that drip frfr

The nice list
Flavor
Pavowski
Joyboy

The neutral list
HighPrincessErinys
geraintm
Purplemango

The naught list (impostors are venting and sabotaging our tasks like taking care of navigation but then the oxygen starts to run out??!?!?!??!!)
Kyouku
DragonEater
Hu Tao

further developments could cause me to downgrade either joyboy or purplemango and swap them with a scumread, unlikely though

T

A

K

E

I

T

O

R

L

E[color=#0040FF]A[color=#00FFFF]V[color=#FFFFFF]E [color=#800000]I[color=#408040]T

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Unfortunately 1 and probably 2 of your scumreads are wrong. So might need to rethink it

I think all three SRs are wrong but I'm probably wrong on that mathematically speaking

[DragonEater70]

im still pissed that I was (presumably?) wrong about flavor
UNVOTE:

How does this change your reads

see below

Oh I see, DE is scum trying to bait out the real vig
VOTE: DE

well this means at least one scum in DE/Kyouko, which I could have seen already.
I arrive at the following conclusion:
If Kyouko is town then DE/Flavor ig could be w/w? Maybe both Kyo and DE are scum
But I'm going to go out on a limb and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko
prob should vig DE if kyouko flips town

I'm not going to pretend to understand the logic of why this post means Kyo or DE or *both* could be scum, but the more I sit with it the more scum!Dragon makes sense to me

VOTE: Dragon

This is definitely a scum post

Like Pav isn't even pretending to have a reason to vote me. It's thinly veiled OMGUS on a slot that he sees is coming under fire, when he needs to divert attention off hinself after the towncore starts suspecting him.

Game solved GGEZ

[HighPrincessErinys]

im still pissed that I was (presumably?) wrong about flavor
UNVOTE:

How does this change your reads

see below

Oh I see, DE is scum trying to bait out the real vig
VOTE: DE

well this means at least one scum in DE/Kyouko, which I could have seen already.
I arrive at the following conclusion:
If Kyouko is town then DE/Flavor ig could be w/w? Maybe both Kyo and DE are scum
But I'm going to go out on a limb and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko
prob should vig DE if kyouko flips town

I'm not going to pretend to understand the logic of why this post means Kyo or DE or *both* could be scum, but the more I sit with it the more scum!Dragon makes sense to me

VOTE: Dragon

This is definitely a scum post

Like Pav isn't even pretending to have a reason to vote me. It's thinly veiled OMGUS on a slot that he sees is coming under fire, when he needs to divert attention off hinself after the towncore starts suspecting him.

Game solved GGEZ

This one can see it with the example you quoted but it's still like, pretty pleased with his earlier play? But it supposes this could be a caught scum flailing moment or however you wanna describe it. This one will think on it. Reminder to me also to go and take a look at PM and Kyouko because they've not been on it's radar all that much this game.

[DragonEater70]

Yeah I don't think Pav has been particulalrly scummy in his play, it's just a gut thought that he's scum more than anything else. Like his towniness is the easiest to fake out of all players, if that makes sense.

[DragonEater70]

But 900, 863 and 867 read as flailing / throwing mud everywhere in search of a viable wagon

[DragonEater70]

Anyhow I'm going to slither back into the meta rabbit hole I've been in for the last 40 minutes trying to figure out if my read of Kyo is valid or not

[Flavor Leaf]

I feel I was close to a full solve with CW, Pavowski, HPE. HPE’s AtE is strong, though, so I think they could be town, but then there’s a scum in the lurkers, so

[DragonEater70]

Alright I skimmed like 2-3 of Kyouko's town games and also 2-3 scum games of hers, and my conclusion is that Kyouko doesn't know how to powerwolf / fake-tunnel as scum. OTOH, there's at least one instance in her town games of being overly-insistent on a wrong scumread.

So I feel content with my read of her as town for now - at least until she does something which makes me question that read.

[DragonEater70]

Oh I see, DE is scum trying to bait out the real vig
VOTE: DE

How the fuck does that work??? Like you think FL is lying about being a vig? If so you should vote him not me. And why would scum!me even need to "bait out the real vig" if Flavor isn't the real vig? Wouldn't the "real vig" CC anyway?

[DragonEater70]

Santa brought us coal for Christmas

Probably because we were naughty and killed Laplacian

@Kyo

can I be conftown for not wanting to kill him earlier?

No?

You have a really dry sense of humor.

[DragonEater70]

Wait that's not what that means

I meant you don't get jokes

[cw357]

I think I’m still team fade CW

If he's town and we don't vote him out today and vote out town today I think we lose tomorrow. Because he will push on me or dragon tomorrow. So I agree.

Fixed

lol this is the most blatant de/hu Tao w/w post I’ve seen yet

[cw357]

I feel I was close to a full solve with CW, Pavowski, HPE. HPE’s AtE is strong, though, so I think they could be town, but then there’s a scum in the lurkers, so

Im town

[HighPrincessErinys]

I feel I was close to a full solve with CW, Pavowski, HPE. HPE’s AtE is strong, though, so I think they could be town, but then there’s a scum in the lurkers, so

Im town

And

a liablity!

[DragonEater70]

If all my town reads are correct (which is 100% not the case), then the following are town:
Purple, Flavor, Dragon, HPE, cw, Kyouko, Hu Tao

Meaning the scum team is exactly Gera/Pav/Joyboy

However like I said this is incorrect

What I think is pretty likely is there's 0 scum in Purple/Dragon/Flavor/Kyo, 1 scum in cw/HPE/Hu Tao, and 2 scum in Gera/Pav/Joyboy

Pav is my most confident SR but I would 100% go for Gera/Joyboy. I think fading one and vigging another out of these three will give us a scum flip 95% of the time.

[DragonEater70]

Votecount 1.6

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to eliminate. Day 1 ends in (expired on 2024-01-02 07:27:34).

Votecount

Laplacian

(7)

-

ssbm_kyouko

,

Abnegation

, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys, geraintm,

DragonEater70

,

Flavor Leaf

Joyboy (2)

- cw357, Hu Tao

cw357 (1)

- Joyboy

HighPrincessErinys (1)

-

Laplacian

Not Voting (2)

-

Purplemango

,

Thomith

Flavour

Dark green - conftown
Light green - confident these are town / conftown FMPOV only

Based on this we can rule out HPE/Pav/Gera scum team as well as Hu/cw/Joy scum team. However cw and Hu Tao have individually high partner equity with Joyboy (distancing).

Pav's vote looks less opportunistic than I remembered.

Maybe the solve is like 2 out of cw/Joy/Hu Tao + 1 out of HPE/Gera. I need to look at combined ISOs to confirm likelihood of this.

[DragonEater70]

Okay Hu Tao is never scum with Joyboy (and on reread of ISO is town)

[DragonEater70]

Going to sleep, continue tomorrow

[Hu Tao]

I feel I was close to a full solve with CW, Pavowski, HPE. HPE’s AtE is strong, though, so I think they could be town, but then there’s a scum in the lurkers, so

I don't think cw and joyboy are scum together. So if cw is scum I think it's Gera in the lurkers. I'm not sure.

[Hu Tao]

I think I’m still team fade CW

If he's town and we don't vote him out today and vote out town today I think we lose tomorrow. Because he will push on me or dragon tomorrow. So I agree.

Fixed

lol this is the most blatant de/hu Tao w/w post I’ve seen yet

How so?

[Hu Tao]

If all my town reads are correct (which is 100% not the case), then the following are town:
Purple, Flavor, Dragon, HPE, cw, Kyouko, Hu Tao

Meaning the scum team is exactly Gera/Pav/Joyboy

However like I said this is incorrect

What I think is pretty likely is there's 0 scum in Purple/Dragon/Flavor/Kyo, 1 scum in cw/HPE/Hu Tao, and 2 scum in Gera/Pav/Joyboy

Pav is my most confident SR but I would 100% go for Gera/Joyboy. I think fading one and vigging another out of these three will give us a scum flip 95% of the time.

I don't hate this plan

[Hu Tao]

Votecount 1.6

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to eliminate. Day 1 ends in (expired on 2024-01-02 07:27:34).

Votecount

Laplacian

(7)

-

ssbm_kyouko

,

Abnegation

, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys, geraintm,

DragonEater70

,

Flavor Leaf

Joyboy (2)

- cw357, Hu Tao

cw357 (1)

- Joyboy

HighPrincessErinys (1)

-

Laplacian

Not Voting (2)

-

Purplemango

,

Thomith

Flavour

Dark green - conftown
Light green - confident these are town / conftown FMPOV only

Based on this we can rule out HPE/Pav/Gera scum team as well as Hu/cw/Joy scum team. However cw and Hu Tao have individually high partner equity with Joyboy (distancing).

Pav's vote looks less opportunistic than I remembered.

Maybe the solve is like 2 out of cw/Joy/Hu Tao + 1 out of HPE/Gera. I need to look at combined ISOs to confirm likelihood of this.

Okay let's go joyboy if you think I'm just scum bussing.