Mini Normal 2322: Game Over

[Ausuka]

Votecount 2.2

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to eliminate. Day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-01-02 19:46:41).

Votecount

cw357 (4)

- DragonEater70, cw357, HighPrincessErinys, Hu Tao

geraintm (1)

- Joyboy

Not Voting (5)

- Flavor Leaf, geraintm, Pavowski, Purplemango, ssbm_Kyouko

Flavour

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I thought Kyou was townie, and they over pushed, but it could be bold aggressive scum, i don’t want to count that out.

I do think I could have played that D1 exactly the same as scum fwiw, because Laplacian didn't do well at scumhunting under pressure and nobody challenging my read was vocal/dedicated enough to sway the sheep off the wagon. It didn't take many posts from me to case him. I don't think I'm good enough at scum to get him limmed if there was more resistance, but since that wasn't the case I'm not out of my scumrange

[cw357]

this is my swan song
scum is probably dragon+hu tao+hpe
I called it
tbh I don't even care anymore

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Purple actually looks pretty good on a reread.

I want to do some Day 1 wagonomics.

I'm at this wagonomics post in my reread, looking at your ISO for conclusions - is this post below a conclusion of the wagonomics? How did you get to Pavowski/cw and Hu Tao/DE as obvious splits? And by obvious splits you mean not scum together, right? Or do you mean T/S explicitly, leaving no room for T/T.

Oh wait, I see the second half of the post. So you think Hu Tao/DE vs. Pavowski/CW is TT vs. SS but you're not sure which side is town? I'd say DE/HT are the town side by a landslide (the

townslide

, if you will) in that case

Pavowski/cw and Hu Tao/DragonEater are an obv split.

If we fade in Hu Tao/DE, I’m vigging Pavowski if they flip town, and vice versa.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

this is my swan song
scum is probably dragon+hu tao+hpe
I called it
tbh I don't even care anymore

Setting aside DE/HT, why is HPE scum over Pavowski? I feel these two are very clearly unaligned and I would lean toward Pavowski being scum more often than HPE

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Why pav is scum?

Why ask only about Pavowski and not Hu Tao here?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

You know what, maybe I’ll make this easier for yall

I’m a Night 1 Vig. I killed Abnegation.

I’ve been playing this day phase trying to act like it wasn’t me, so I could pull this out later, but I’m ready to play as IC.

Is this a serious claim?

Trying to catch up this morning and this is the strangest thing. Why make like you're gonna scumcase Abnegation next day then shoot overnight? You didn't "act like it wasn't you" for very long, some of the plist hasn't even checked in yet

but does scum post this about an uncountered Vig? Maybe if cw is town, scum!Pav is willing to push his luck given the cw is a townbeard in this case.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

given that*

[ssbm_Kyouko]

joyboy/hu tao
i could see it

again, if and only if flavor's vig claim doesn't get cced

I just don't see Flavor making a vig claim that could get countered to nail him as scum on d2 here. I don't think he's getting countered. I was trying to hang onto ways to fear that he was scum kinda sorta driving the game but I don't think it's the case

This reads to me, a lot more like what scum would post about Flavor's claim if cw is town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Feels like Kyouko already knew that was there and is acting like they didn’t

explain?

Can someone voting dragon explain that? I don't see it

pushed laplacian while maintaining distance yesterday in a very un-towny way
pocket attempts
a lot of interactions stuff, if a dragon wagon actually becomes a big thing I could ISO

Basically i think Kyouko already knew that FBI soft was there, and is acting like they just found it to help push a narrative. It’s sussy baka if they knew about it in Day 1.

Same thing occurred to me but I didn't know if that was the paranoia talking

It sure feels like I'm seeing Pavowski *behind* a lot of ideas but not giving a lot of his own ideas

VOTE: Pavowski
I do think I prefer this over cw because there's a possibility cw is being used as a townbeard. I agree with the points made that, if town, cw could be a liability in ELO given his tunneling hasn't stopped yet. Maybe it stops soon though if he is town?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Pavowski, CW, HPE team is possible

Idk if I replied to this one already but I think given the analysis of the VC where Laplacian had 4 votes and there were a bunch of vanity wagons, at most one of Pavowski/HPE are scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I could be high but that may be e-2.

In the interests of holidays since I imagine most of us may not be around, and so silly things don't happen, I'm unvoting. This vote will be reapplied in 48 hours or so.

UNVOTE: Dragon

Pavowski did not unvote when

Laplacian

was E-2, despite his vocal dislike of geraintm putting Lap on E-2

[cw357]

this is my swan song
scum is probably dragon+hu tao+hpe
I called it
tbh I don't even care anymore

Setting aside DE/HT, why is HPE scum over Pavowski? I feel these two are very clearly unaligned and I would lean toward Pavowski being scum more often than HPE

because I say so

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alright I skimmed like 2-3 of Kyouko's town games and also 2-3 scum games of hers, and my conclusion is that Kyouko doesn't know how to powerwolf / fake-tunnel as scum. OTOH, there's at least one instance in her town games of being overly-insistent on a wrong scumread.

So I feel content with my read of her as town for now - at least until she does something which makes me question that read.

These were posts I missed due to stopping in the middle of pages - Dragon's meta diving of me checks out as accurate fmpov, I'm inclined to think putting in the effort to find my alignment via meta is +town for him. If my meta didn't support SRing me, scum!Dragon could have pretended the results were inconclusive, or just not posted about his meta dive at all.

Oh I see, DE is scum trying to bait out the real vig
VOTE: DE

How the fuck does that work??? Like you think FL is lying about being a vig? If so you should vote him not me. And why would scum!me even need to "bait out the real vig" if Flavor isn't the real vig? Wouldn't the "real vig" CC anyway?

I was kinda between a couple of ideas here - one being, Flavor isn't the real vig and he claimed the shot to try to simultaneously protect the real vig and force scum to accept him as locktown. This only works if the real vig really trusts Flavor is town. Thinking about this got me thinking, if Flavor is the real vig, I could pretend that I'm the real vig that he was pretending to cover for. I think Flavor is smart enough that if he is the real vig and I did get run up to E-1, I could get away with claiming vig and Flavor would just shoot me at Night, which would effectively gain the town another chance at the lim.

It was tunneled and dumb of me to think scum would try to bait out the real vig, but the way you came in so confidently with "that's not a real modifier in a simple game" I was like "oh, of course, scum!DE also saw that Flavor is covering for the real vig and is trying to lure the real vig into the open". By voting Flavor first, and then saying this to you, I thought odds were pretty good that if you were scum, you might believe I'm the real vig and try to kill/block me instead of FL.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alright I skimmed like 2-3 of Kyouko's town games and also 2-3 scum games of hers, and my conclusion is that Kyouko doesn't know how to powerwolf / fake-tunnel as scum. OTOH, there's at least one instance in her town games of being overly-insistent on a wrong scumread.

So I feel content with my read of her as town for now - at least until she does something which makes me question that read.

These were posts I missed due to stopping in the middle of pages - Dragon's meta diving of me checks out as accurate fmpov, I'm inclined to think putting in the effort to find my alignment via meta is +town for him. If my meta didn't support SRing me, scum!Dragon could have pretended the results were inconclusive, or just not posted about his meta dive at all.

Oh I see, DE is scum trying to bait out the real vig
VOTE: DE

How the fuck does that work??? Like you think FL is lying about being a vig? If so you should vote him not me. And why would scum!me even need to "bait out the real vig" if Flavor isn't the real vig? Wouldn't the "real vig" CC anyway?

I was kinda between a couple of ideas here - one being, Flavor isn't the real vig and he claimed the shot to try to simultaneously protect the real vig and force scum to accept him as locktown. This only works if the real vig really trusts Flavor is town. Thinking about this got me thinking, if Flavor is the real vig, I could pretend that I'm the real vig that he was pretending to cover for. I think Flavor is smart enough that if he is the real vig and I did get run up to E-1, I could get away with claiming vig and Flavor would just shoot me at Night, which would effectively gain the town another chance at the lim.

It was tunneled and dumb of me to think scum would try to bait out the real vig, but the way you came in so confidently with "that's not a real modifier in a simple game" I was like "oh, of course, scum!DE also saw that Flavor is covering for the real vig and is trying to lure the real vig into the open". By voting Flavor first, and then saying this to you, I thought odds were pretty good that if you were scum, you might believe I'm the real vig and try to kill/block me instead of FL.

EBWOP - originally posted the bold part of my post inside DE's quote tags

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Me knowing that Hu Tao could easily be trying to get me to town read them and avoid being vigged is one of the things keeping me from fully scum reading Pavowski, though. I also think it's possible it's a ScumPav, TownKyouko.

I'd be down for you to shoot me if Pav flips town - scum!me would say this if scum has a blocker of course, but I think my flip clearly shows what happened D1 and leads to scumflips down the line

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Rather you shoot Dragon if you flip me/CW today but you do you boo

Maybe somebody can change my mind over the coming days, tho

I'm re-voting Dragon tomorrow

Shooting in dragon and and me seems terrible regardless of the vote today.

I think shooting Dragon is bad unless Pav flips scum, and even then only because Dragon seems like the only deepwolf candidate, and it's more because Pav didn't let the Dragon wagon sit at E-2, but he did let Laplacian sit at E-2. If Pav is scum it's hard to look away from scum!DE possibilities

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I just also don't believe DE goes through this much effort as scum after that Normal game we just finished where he was scum - I think it was 2315. T3's "Flavorless Hell"

[ssbm_Kyouko]

i just generally feel Pav's got a sense of 'if i gotta die, i gotta die, but im gonna fight trying' in a townie way, and not a scummy way.

I also saw that and it definitely gave me pause, but I feel this is more posturing about fighting than actually fighting? Like if he really had this attitude I'd expect him to push me / Hu Tao more and make sure that the "right" lim/kill happens after he dies, but instead he's like "oh okay cool you wanna kill me today? I believe in you town".

It's fake.

Thing is. Pav doesn't need to push us. Cw is doing it for him. So that's why it seems he has no need to fight it

I do think cw can be townbearding/scumsiding, whatever you want to call it, for scum!pav

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think it's {Pavowski} + 2 of {Joyboy, geraintm, Purplemango}. DE has deepwolf potential but I think the level of effort shown here is unlikely to come from scum given what I just saw from scum!DE a few weeks ago.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Everyone else just seems town either individually or by POE, except Flavor who, barring his claim, I would still harbor suspicions he's powerwolfing.

[cw357]

I think it's {Pavowski} + 2 of {Joyboy, geraintm, Purplemango}. DE has deepwolf potential but I think the level of effort shown here is unlikely to come from scum given what I just saw from scum!DE a few weeks ago.

lol that's probbly vv/v/v/v/v lol no u

[Hu Tao]

I just also don't believe DE goes through this much effort as scum after that Normal game we just finished where he was scum - I think it was 2315. T3's "Flavorless Hell"

Yep. I made this point earlier

[cw357]

no
ur w/w with de

[Pavowski]

Hang on while I process how hard Kyo is trying not to let the CW wagon happen by casing me under the fkin planet