Mini Normal 2322: Game Over

tris · Post Post #1450 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2023 8:47 pm

Votecount 2.5

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to eliminate. Day 2 ends in (expired on 2024-01-02 19:46:41).

Votecount

cw357 (1)

- cw357

geraintm (1)

- Joyboy

Pavowski (1)

- ssbm_Kyouko

ssbm_Kyouko (3)

- Flavor Leaf, HighPrincessErinys, Pavowski

Not Voting (4)

- geraintm, Purplemango, Hu Tao, DragonEater70

Flavour

Mod notes

tris · Post Post #1451 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2023 8:57 pm

In post 1436, DragonEater70 wrote:
@mod, can we please get a prod on Joyboy?

I've asked for clarification from Ausuka, but I'm counting from the end of the 26th (using the time in England of course hehe) based on what she said in 875. I will send an informal nudge however.

tris · Post Post #1452 (ISO) » Wed Dec 27, 2023 10:49 pm

As it turns out, Joyboy has requested replacement.
Also, I've received clarification that it works like the prod timers were paused during that time.

ssbm_Kyouko · Post Post #1453 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 3:24 am

I was thinking about this game in bed last night and might have been too quick to overlook HPE.

The reason being, I feel like people have sort of come out of the woodwork now that Flavor is voting me, and I think HPE might be one of them. Like Hu Tao i think has voiced suspicion of me pretty consistently - maybe I haven't noticed HPE/Pav doing the same but I feel like for someone my wagon is convenient and that's actually how scum on my wagon will be found. Going to start by catching up on the last few pages and then find old games

ssbm_Kyouko · Post Post #1454 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 3:30 am

In post 1408, cw357 wrote: I don't agree fully with a kyouku hang thus I will not vote

def think dragon or hu tao is a stronger bet

I thought I'd seen you vote me already but I must be remembering voiced suspicions rather than a vote.

I remember wanting to ask someone who they thought was scum and why because it felt like there was a lot of sheeping of Flavor going on

@HPE, Pavowski, cw:

Who are you thinking is scum and why? 2 scumreads preferably

ssbm_Kyouko · Post Post #1455 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 4:02 am

In post 1414, Flavor Leaf wrote: yeah, im set on Kyouko. if CW is a partner, they're about to cause distraction. CW should be left to make judgement to the vig.

CW, if town, and there is scum in Hu Tao/Dragon, is probably okay to have alive in that scenario, so ill think about some things tonight.

I want this option.

If Kyouko is scum, DragonEater and Pavowski become confirmed town.

I'm town though, so you're not going to get any confirmed town out of my ISO. I'll go cw if I have to, but there are 2 reasons that come to mind why I did not want cw before Pav:
1. I think there is potential these 2 are S/S, but it's also possible scum!Pavowski is taking a more laid-back approach that happens to align in some ways with town!cw's reads. This is why I keep mentioning him as a townbeard, might not fit the definition exactly, but I think it describes what I'm feeling.
2. I think after the amogus-posting stopped, cw started to make posts that were making a lot of sense. As I recall though, the posts I thought were making sense that I remember cw in a good light for are the ones where he was casing Hu Tao. I think while rereading I came to disagree with that conclusion, but it might be the analysis itself is still +town even if I disagree

I'm trying to think like what if Pavowski is town? Who is scum then? I default to HPE as I remember when there were 4 on Laplacian's wagon {myself, abnegation, HPE, Pavowski} it would have been "easy" if scum were on the wagon. With all the vanity wagons happening at that time it may not have been the case though. I want to say there are 0-1 scum in HPE/Pavowski, meaning limming there is either a 0 or 50% chance to hit scum, averaging to 25%. Leaving 2-3 scum in the last 6 players (7 alive, exclude Flavor), or an average of 5/12 or 41.67%. These numbers work from town!Pavowski and town!HPE perspectives as well, and they would say 0-1 scum in Kyouko/Pavowski or Kyouko/HPE.

For everyone else, limming on that wagon is 0 or 33.3%, averaging 16.67%. This leaves 2-3 scum in the last 5 players (exclude yourself and Flavor), which averages to 5/10 or 50%.

For Flavor, he excludes only himself, meaning his numbers on and off-wagon are taken from a mix of the two scenarios: 16.67% on, and 41.67% off

ssbm_Kyouko · Post Post #1456 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 4:06 am

In post 1439, Flavor Leaf wrote: yep, the fact kyouko wanted people to unvote cuz wagon was getting hot and 3 people unvoted shows it. kyouko scum.

Wouldn't this make me scum with at least one of those 3? I'm not scum, but for the purposes of this exercise, does it look to you like any of the unvoters were bussing me prior to the unvote?

ssbm_Kyouko · Post Post #1457 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 4:12 am

ok going to find my scum and town tunnels - if anyone wants to supplement my work here is a complete list of my completed games:

Spoiler:

Interesting, I was looking for how often I get mislimmed (it's rare) and noticed Radio Buzz is on here twice - that's going to be really annoying to fix

ssbm_Kyouko · Post Post #1458 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 4:57 am

I've searched my ego for both "parroting" and "parrot" to find games where I have tunneled someone based on the parroting tell. Personally I find the tell is more useful when it is tied to verbiage, not ideas, so I look for places where someone says something that sounds out of character for themself, that is being said by someone else in the game. I also take parroting in RVS seriously as I think it's a way scum tries to ingratiate themselves to town. Repeating something back to someone is a good way to show them you are listening, so if town sees someone saying the same words they're saying, there is a subconscious good feeling about that person.

Mini Normal 2213: Here I am town and push ItalianoVD for parroting. See posts 361, 373, 389. The D1 lim in this game is on RLotus who shares a mutual TR with ItalianoVD - because I couldn't get my top SR I settled for RLotus instead, but if you look at my ISO from D1 in this game it's hard tunneled on the idea of {ItalianoVD, RLotus} scumteam. Unfortunately for me I reevaluated D2 after RLotus flipped Town Cop Jailkeeper and ended up forgetting all about IVD, who went on to win the game as scum. This is also a game where I fake a guilty on a scumread the day before ELO to prevent town from mislimming Gamma because I have a very strong track record of reading Gamma correctly and knew she was town here. I ended up getting mislimmed for that fake guilty, and Gamma still died in ELO the next day. I haven't done this before or since, I just think it's worth pointing out.

Mini Normal 2239: In this towngame I suspect a couple of people of parroting and I do my research and find neither of them are guilty of it. I don't think I've mentioned yet that I did check for the usage of "sup nerds" by Laplacian in other games and did not find it. In this game I would suggest using the "search this topic" feature at the top of the thread and searching for "parroting" - you'll see explanations for why I believe in parroting as a tell and also other players reacting to my use of parroting and calling me town for it.

Toriel's Patience: I don't use the tell in this game, but I do comment on someone else's use of the tell from much earlier in the game (I replaced in around post 3200 in this game). See posts 3325 and 3249 in my ISO (If you go to 3325 first, 3249 is quoted inside this post).

This last game is recent enough I can just click Quote and it will work:

In post 432, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
In post 429, Elements wrote:
In post 423, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
SNIP

normal 2302: scum
119 "I'm not a fan of meta partly because most of the time I get bored reading other people's past games"

SNIP

This was an enjoyable read, thank you
2302 post 119 was a mood. I used to love metadiving but it sucked today ngl. I don't think I have the energy anymore at 30. Gonna stick to that for parrot scumtells which are easy with ctrl + f

pedit: yeah I just scumread you in that game for a long time I think. Noticed you were town when I went to check it

This is the easier portion of self-town-metaing. I've never used "parrot" or "parroting" as scum before. I'll look at scumgames next to see if I can find some scum tunnels.

Hu Tao · Post Post #1459 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 5:38 am

Well it looks like we are waiting for a replacement for joyboy anyway

ssbm_Kyouko · Post Post #1460 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:32 am

Just going to go through all the scumgames I have on-site
Birds of Paradise: No tunneling
Newbie 1764: No tunneling, replaced in and tactically put myself where I needed to be to win, kept my options open
Open 668: Don't think I tunneled. this game I slanked around a lot, prodged, went with the flow on popular wagons, and when I did talk it was a lot about mechanics of the setup. I made it to D4 in this one, scum lost on D6.
Civilization mafia: Similar to open 668, I did a lot of slanking and mech-talking and kinda middle-grounded it. I think I was playing this at the same time I was hydraed with Alisae in the next scumgame of mine, so in one game I was hydraed with Alisae, and in this game I was scum vs. town Alisae and as I recall I had em sort of pocketed in this game. This early in my career I don't think I'd developed my aggressive tunnel-prone playstyle as town yet so I had no reason to try to fake it as scum. This is also why I used to win more scum games and get mislimmed more as town.
Elemental Trinity (Hydra with Alisae "No Bullying Allowed"): I can't seem to find this game in my ego - oh wait it would be in the hydra's ego because I was a good kid and didn't hydra slip. I have 10 posts in this game (All Hydra posts were signed I'm pretty sure), I think what happened was civ mafia got me interested in playing civ 5 and I got addicted and siteflaked because my first hiatus comes after this game and I barely played this game. This was in 2017.

Mini 2053: I played 2 games in 2019, this was one of them, the other was town. I replaced in pretty late and tried to pull the win out with a tactical positioning of my reads but I think what happened was town massclaimed and I was pretty much outed, I was the last scum to be limmed. There's another hiatus after this

Mini 2218: Skip forward to 2021 - in this game I'm definitely more conscious of how I play as town and decide to latch onto Zyla's 301 and 302 and push her hard for them. This is an example of what my scum "tunneling" looks like and it's not very convincing when you know what town!me looks like. This is the game I played with Pavowski and the beginning of Koba soulreading me in like 4 or 5 games straight, most of them I was scum in

I basically try to use my Zyla scumread as a shield to deflect suspicions that are on me in this game - it doesn't work out, unfortunately Koba correctly read Zyla as town and I think Zyla was a PR so my whole vibe sort of died off when I could no longer push her. Town lolhammered town on D1 in this game and I continued the Zyla push into D2. I think this game also had a traitor T3 and when he flipped it gave the rest of us away a little bit.

Large 233: town!Anya randomly decided to claim she was in a PT with me and we shitposted about that for a while before we finally had to admit the hood wasn't real. The WIFOM around the fake hood actually kept me alive in this game for a long time and I basically just coasted and shitposted, not really any pushes of my own. I like didn't vote my partners until I really lamely bussed Titus and then tried to slither through ELO by mech-speccing us into a POE that included myself and hoping town was lying about one of their modifiers. Gamma just like guiltied me or something though so I self-hammered in concession. I think this was one of my better scum performances despite the loss maybe? I played the Anya thing well iirc. Also DKKoba replaced into this game after post 4000 and immediately pegged me as scum, but he wasn't able to get town to lim me that Day.

Large 236: Koba was in this game from the start, and town, so I tried to play this game differently to avoid getting caught by him. It didn't work out, I got limmed D1
Mini 2244: 3d20 uRoll (Cult leader game): I think I did a decent job of appearing town in this game but I got killed by one of the scumteams N1, this was multiball. I think I got killed for appearing town - so when I don't have teammates and need to find scum it seems like I can still pull off my towngame. Actually looks like Enchant Serial Killed me - this game had mafia, werewolf, cult, and SK

Large 237: I tried to push fua for a weird reason (see post 249) like I'm liable to do as town but I was caught D1 and I tried to slank away a little but it didn't work and I got D1ed.

So yeah, before I established my town meta I was able to get away with more as scum, but I've been unable to match my town effort levels as scum. I'm simply not scum here, unless you think 2 years away from the game changed that

ssbm_Kyouko · Post Post #1461 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:33 am

I'll try searching my ego for tunnel/tunneled/tunneling next and see where I've been accused of tunneling

ssbm_Kyouko · Post Post #1462 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:36 am

I am hard to mislim as town and I tend to be unconvincing when defending myself and sort of half-ass it but really just roll over when I'm scum. This is why in most of my towngames I am NKed early or not eliminated until much later when scum have more control over the votes

HighPrincessErinys · Post Post #1463 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:52 am

In post 1454, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
In post 1408, cw357 wrote: I don't agree fully with a kyouku hang thus I will not vote

def think dragon or hu tao is a stronger bet
I thought I'd seen you vote me already but I must be remembering voiced suspicions rather than a vote.

I remember wanting to ask someone who they thought was scum and why because it felt like there was a lot of sheeping of Flavor going on

@HPE, Pavowski, cw:

Who are you thinking is scum and why? 2 scumreads preferably

Direct yourself here. Only difference is you've moved into scum territory after your recent string of bad posts (126 to 130 in isolation, and less severely the meta defense is very Meh to me.) and an ISO review.

ssbm_Kyouko · Post Post #1464 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:04 am

In post 1463, HighPrincessErinys wrote:
In post 1454, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
In post 1408, cw357 wrote: I don't agree fully with a kyouku hang thus I will not vote

def think dragon or hu tao is a stronger bet
I thought I'd seen you vote me already but I must be remembering voiced suspicions rather than a vote.

I remember wanting to ask someone who they thought was scum and why because it felt like there was a lot of sheeping of Flavor going on

@HPE, Pavowski, cw:

Who are you thinking is scum and why? 2 scumreads preferably
Direct yourself here. Only difference is you've moved into scum territory after your recent string of bad posts (126 to 130 in isolation, and less severely the meta defense is very Meh to me.) and an ISO review.

Okay, so what's bad about my ISO 126-130? I just reread them and don't see an issue. It looks like you're just going with what's convenient and not really providing reasoning. Everything you've said about me is generalized, and in the post you linked you don't give reasons why you have Pavowski and Joyboy in the bottom 2. Why are your scumreads scum?

HighPrincessErinys · Post Post #1465 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:20 am

In post 1464, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: Okay, so what's bad about my ISO 126-130? I just reread them and don't see an issue.

First off,

LMAO

, second off:
126, 127, 128 and 129 are absolutely terrible justifications and defenses of the Lap wagon. This one earnestly believed in a Lap scumflip but it feels like you secretly knew the whole time and now that you're being pressed are trying to give reasons as to why you were totally cool and justified to push him regardless because you just hardtunneled and barely considered his posts as you did it. On the other hand, 130... Kinda baffles me because this one doesn't know what you're trying to say. Is it a backpedal? A moment of hypocrisy? "Oh, actually, I

DIDN'T

mean to say I'd do the same thing as scum D1 now that you mention it!"

In post 1464, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: in the post you linked you don't give reasons why you have Pavowski and Joyboy in the bottom 2. Why are your scumreads scum?

Well, beyond the fact this one

has

talked a bit about Pavowski as it was mulling the wagon over, Joyboy was just. Foul? Very little sense made in his posts and a completely nonsensical voting pattern that screams "dead slot". His ISO, small as it is, is utter garbage and of zero use. That would be why.

cw357 · Post Post #1466 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:57 am

hpe sus
i scumread hpe more than kyouko after this interaction
please vig hpe/dragon/hu tao please

ssbm_Kyouko · Post Post #1467 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:07 am

In post 1465, HighPrincessErinys wrote:
In post 1464, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: Okay, so what's bad about my ISO 126-130? I just reread them and don't see an issue.
First off,
LMAO
, second off:
126, 127, 128 and 129 are absolutely terrible justifications and defenses of the Lap wagon. This one earnestly believed in a Lap scumflip but it feels like you secretly knew the whole time and now that you're being pressed are trying to give reasons as to why you were totally cool and justified to push him regardless because you just hardtunneled and barely considered his posts as you did it. On the other hand, 130... Kinda baffles me because this one doesn't know what you're trying to say. Is it a backpedal? A moment of hypocrisy? "Oh, actually, I
DIDN'T
mean to say I'd do the same thing as scum D1 now that you mention it!"

In post 1464, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: in the post you linked you don't give reasons why you have Pavowski and Joyboy in the bottom 2. Why are your scumreads scum?
Well, beyond the fact this one
has
talked a bit about Pavowski as it was mulling the wagon over, Joyboy was just. Foul? Very little sense made in his posts and a completely nonsensical voting pattern that screams "dead slot". His ISO, small as it is, is utter garbage and of zero use. That would be why.

I disagree on ISO 126-129. Flavor thinks 1201 is flawed because he thinks Laplacian had strong posts, but to me it didn't look that way. I explained why it didn't look that way in 126-129. I think there are people here trying to revise history on Laplacian's VT claim (ISO 127/post 1337 cites that the claim was not towny). I do think that Laplacian could have taken a step back and found something convincing enough to prove he was really solving. I think many of the posts flavor cited would be convenient for scum!Lap - I didn't see anything particularly deep or inconvenient coming from Lap. As I said, the only post that gave me pause was 263 because it reminds me of something I would think, but know better than to post in that way if I were town in his shoes. When I was new (and I think Laplacian is new

er

) I would have posted in that way probably.

130 is me saying that I don't think I could reread the game and make my posts 1171 (ISO 78) - 1220 (ISO 118) as scum. "yesterday" means December 26th, the day before I made ISO 130 (1342). "yesterDay" would mean D1 coming from me. I capitalize phases to distinguish them from irl timeframes. So it's not me walking back on my claim I could have made all of my D1 posts as scum.

Spoiler: ISO 126-129

Spoiler: ISO 130

I'll have to look at your ISO to see what you've produced on Pavowski - funnily enough while I was reading my scumgames today I saw myself describing my play as "mulling it over" when I was basically coasting so I kinda think this looks like cover for "I didn't really SR Pavowski but he was the flavor of the thread"

Flavor Leaf · Post Post #1468 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:11 am

A little fluffy

I don’t think it really changes anything for me

Flavor Leaf · Post Post #1469 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:13 am

It just feels like you tunneled specifically because you were hyper aware you hadn’t tunneled as scum like that.

HighPrincessErinys · Post Post #1470 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:14 am

In post 1467, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: I'll have to look at your ISO to see what you've produced on Pavowski - funnily enough while I was reading my scumgames today I saw myself describing my play as "mulling it over" when I was basically coasting so I kinda think this looks like cover for "I didn't really SR Pavowski but he was the flavor of the thread"

No way... projection as offense...

ssbm_Kyouko · Post Post #1471 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:18 am

In post 392, HighPrincessErinys wrote:
In post 391, Laplacian wrote: I had already expressed doubts about both you and HPE earlier, this is just saying XOR instead of OR. It's not an alt wagon if it's just tightening down what I've already said.
You're definitely in survival mode nonetheless imo

tris · Post Post #1472 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:19 am

Gamma Emerald replaces Joyboy

ssbm_Kyouko · Post Post #1473 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:19 am

In post 1469, Flavor Leaf wrote: It just feels like you tunneled specifically because you were hyper aware you hadn’t tunneled as scum like that.

I hate that I have to accept that you just believe this due to the vig claim

ssbm_Kyouko · Post Post #1474 (ISO) » Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:19 am

In post 1472, tris wrote:
Gamma Emerald replaces Joyboy

papa bless

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