Mini 2321: Classic Commercials (Postgame)


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Post Post #1850 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:15 am

Post by Thomith »

In post 1848, Naerys wrote: Wouldnt scum!Cele fake guilty on FL with intent to get him mislimmed tho
I dont think Cele wins in a FL vs Cele wagon battle, so maybe this was done out of self preservation?

I guess theres a world where FL and Cele are scum together, but with FL still pushing Cele I'm not as sure.
thomith could be a court jester

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Post Post #1851 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:16 am

Post by Thomith »

In post 1846, Flavor Leaf wrote: Yeah, Neap specifically looks for VT or Not VT.

I really really struggle with seeing why a townWiz dies over a townCeleb unless Bingle exactly is scum. Celeb, in theory, being scum is another option, of course, but that also makes Bingle look bad on the way they defended.
Just to check, why am I not also scummy for defending Cele? Is it because I had the information I did?
If you dont wanna answer until after mass claim is over then that's fine, I'm just curious.
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Post Post #1852 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:16 am

Post by Naerys »

In post 1850, Thomith wrote:
In post 1848, Naerys wrote: Wouldnt scum!Cele fake guilty on FL with intent to get him mislimmed tho
I dont think Cele wins in a FL vs Cele wagon battle, so maybe this was done out of self preservation?

I guess theres a world where FL and Cele are scum together, but with FL still pushing Cele I'm not as sure.
I think its unlikely, i dont feel any predatory vibes from FL
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Post Post #1853 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:24 am

Post by Celebloki »

I assume Wiz was killed because he could have cleared me if town believed his claim, he was claiming to target me last night. Killing him keeps me unclear and a possible target for wagons going forward. Scum were probably hoping to keep me a viable wagon target. I assume they are banking on the town not believing me.
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Post Post #1854 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:32 am

Post by Flavor Leaf »

oh ive been to Mendocino
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Post Post #1855 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:38 am

Post by Dunnstral »

I'm VT

Not sure what Bingle thinks I was "telegraphing so hard" :]
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Post Post #1856 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 12:02 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1833, Thomith wrote: Whatever I'll just claim.

I'm Town Jailkeeper.

This was why I kept saying I believed Celebloki when he said he was roleblocked Night 1, because he was my night 1 target. I also said that I thought Bingles (at least I think it was Bingle) theory about a Jailkeeper made sense, because I knew he was right, because I was a Jailkeeper.
I wasnt confident I'd be able to protect correctly Night 1, so I instead tried to block the kill by targeting someone I suspected. I targeted off wagon, for the WIFOM reason that scum may think someone on the wagon might be targeted by a town roleblock, so sent someone off wagon to do the kill instead.

I Jailkept Flavor Night 2, because I did believe that the Rolecop/Neap were on opposing factions, so assumed both claims would live through the night, so instead Jailkept a Vanilla claim I thought was likely to be attacked.

Tl;dr:
I'm claiming Jailkeeper
Night 1 Target was Celebloki
Night 2 Target was FL
That was me. Maybe flip a coin to decide if you are jailkeeping Celebloki tonight.
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Post Post #1857 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 12:12 pm

Post by Naerys »

In post 1856, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1833, Thomith wrote: Whatever I'll just claim.

I'm Town Jailkeeper.

This was why I kept saying I believed Celebloki when he said he was roleblocked Night 1, because he was my night 1 target. I also said that I thought Bingles (at least I think it was Bingle) theory about a Jailkeeper made sense, because I knew he was right, because I was a Jailkeeper.
I wasnt confident I'd be able to protect correctly Night 1, so I instead tried to block the kill by targeting someone I suspected. I targeted off wagon, for the WIFOM reason that scum may think someone on the wagon might be targeted by a town roleblock, so sent someone off wagon to do the kill instead.

I Jailkept Flavor Night 2, because I did believe that the Rolecop/Neap were on opposing factions, so assumed both claims would live through the night, so instead Jailkept a Vanilla claim I thought was likely to be attacked.

Tl;dr:
I'm claiming Jailkeeper
Night 1 Target was Celebloki
Night 2 Target was FL
That was me. Maybe flip a coin to decide if you are jailkeeping Celebloki tonight.
Something is meh about this post
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Post Post #1858 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 12:34 pm

Post by Hu Tao »

So just waiting on Dunn and roden claims?
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Post Post #1859 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 12:41 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

Just Roden
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Post Post #1860 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 12:41 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

In post 1836, Thomith wrote: Hu Tao: VT
Dunn: VT
Celeb: Neapolitan
FL: VT
Bingle: VT
Roden: ?
Elements: VT
Thomith: Jailkeeper
Naerys: VT
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Post Post #1861 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 12:42 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

Gob - VT
Kyouko - VT
CAKEZ - VT
Wiz - Role Cop
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Post Post #1862 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 12:53 pm

Post by Roden »

I'm 1-shot Bulletproof
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Post Post #1863 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 1:09 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

Claim ListGob - VT
Kyouko - VT
CAKEZ - VT
Wiz - Role Cop

Hu Tao: VT
Dunn: VT
FL: VT - Neap Night 2 VT result.
Bingle: VT
Elements: VT
Naerys: VT
Roden: 1-shot BP
Celeb: Neapolitan - N1 No Result on Kyouko. N2 VT Result on FL
Thomith: Jailkeeper - N1 Jailed Celeb. N2 jailed FL.
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Post Post #1864 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 1:10 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

So, Roden, Celebl, and Thomith have at most 1 scum in them, but might be 0. Meaning the VT claims have 2 or 3 scum in them.
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Post Post #1865 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 1:12 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

Imo, I'm leaning Bingle/Elements/Dunn or Bingle/Elements/Naerys.

That being said, Thomith, Celeb, and Roden all have an individual chance of being scum, at varying degrees.
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Post Post #1866 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 1:16 pm

Post by Roden »

I'm also think Bingle/Elements/Naerys

VOTE: Bingle
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Post Post #1867 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 1:50 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

Day 1 VC

Spoiler:
ssbm_kyouko
(2): Thomith, Bingle
Flavor Leaf
(1):
ssbm_kyouko

AnimatedWiz
(1): Roden
gob
(1):
SirCakez

Hu Tao (1): Naerys

No elimination (1):
AnimatedWiz


Not voting (6): Hu Tao, Dunnstral, Celebloki,
Flavor Leaf
, Elements,
gob



VC 1.02


ssbm_kyouko
(2): Thomith,
gob

Flavor Leaf
(2):
ssbm_kyouko
, Roden
gob
(2):
SirCakez
,
Flavor Leaf

Hu Tao (1): Naerys
Elements (1): Elements
Dunnstral (1): Bingle

No elimination (1):
AnimatedWiz


Not voting (3): Hu Tao, Dunnstral, Celebloki


VC 1.03


Flavor Leaf
(3):
ssbm_kyouko
, Roden,
gob

gob (3): SirCakez,
Flavor Leaf
, Bingle
Hu Tao (1): Naerys
Elements (1): Elements
Dunnstral (1): Thomith

No elimination (1):
AnimatedWiz


Not voting (3): Hu Tao, Dunnstral, Celebloki



VC 1.04


gob (3): SirCakez,
Bingle, Roden
Flavor Leaf
(2):
gob
,
Flavor Leaf

AnimatedWiz
(1):
ssbm_kyouko

Hu Tao (1): Naerys
Elements (1): Elements
Dunnstral (1): Thomith

No elimination (1):
AnimatedWiz


Not voting (3): Hu Tao, Dunnstral, Celebloki


VC 1.05


gob (4): SirCakez,
Bingle, Roden,
Flavor Leaf

AnimatedWiz (3): ssbm_kyouko,
Hu Tao, Dunnstral
Flavor Leaf
(1):
gob

Hu Tao (1): Naerys
Elements (1): Elements
Dunnstral (1): Thomith
ssbm_kyouko (1): AnimatedWiz


Not voting (1): Celebloki



VC 1.06


gob
(2): Bingle, Roden
AnimatedWiz
(2): Hu Tao, Dunnstral
Dunnstral (2): Thomith, AnimatedWiz
Flavor Leaf
(2):
gob, SirCakez

Hu Tao (1): Naerys
Elements (1): Elements
SirCakez
(1):
Flavor Leaf


Not voting (2): Celebloki,
ssbm_kyouko




VC 1.07


gob
(5): Bingle, Roden,
ssbm_kyouko, AnimatedWiz,
Naerys
AnimatedWiz
(2): Hu Tao, Dunnstral
Elements (2): Elements,
SirCakez

SirCakez
(1): Thomith
ssbm_kyouko
(1): Celebloki
Naerys (1):
Flavor Leaf


Not voting (1):
gob




VC 1.08

gob
(6): Roden,
ssbm_kyouko, AnimatedWiz
, Naerys,
Flavor Leaf,
Elements
SirCakez
(2): Thomith, Hu Tao
AnimatedWiz
(1): Dunnstral
Elements (1):
SirCakez

ssbm_kyouko
(1): Celebloki
Flavor Leaf
(1):
gob

Roden (1): Bingle


VC 1.FINAL

gob
(7): Roden,
ssbm_kyouko, AnimatedWiz,
Naerys,
Flavor Leaf,
Elements, Dunnstral
SirCakez
(2): Thomith, Hu Tao
Elements (1):
SirCakez

ssbm_kyouko
(1): Celebloki
Flavor Leaf
(1):
gob

Roden (1): Bingle




Day 2 VC

Spoiler:
2.01

Dunnstral (3): Hu Tao,
Flavor Leaf
, Celebloki
Naerys (1):
SirCakez

SirCakez (1): Roden

Not voting (6): Dunnstral, Bingle,
AnimatedWiz
, Elements, Thomith, Naerys

2.02

Dunnstral (2): Hu Tao, Celebloki
Naerys (1):
SirCakez

SirCakez
(1): Roden
Celebloki (1): Thomith

Not voting (6): Dunnstral, Bingle,
AnimatedWiz
, Elements, Naerys,
Flavor Leaf



VC 2.03

Dunnstral (3): Hu Tao, Celebloki,
AnimatedWiz

Celebloki (2): Thomith,
Flavor Leaf

Naerys (1):
SirCakez

SirCakez
(1): Roden
AnimatedWiz
(1): Dunnstral

Not voting (3): Bingle, Elements, Naerys


VC 2.04

Dunnstral (4): Hu Tao, Celebloki,
AnimatedWiz
, Roden
Celebloki (4): Thomith,
Flavor Leaf
, Naerys, Bingle
Naerys (1):
SirCakez

AnimatedWiz
(1): Dunnstral

Not voting (1): Elements


VC 2.05


Hu Tao (3):
SirCakez
, Bingle,
Flavor Leaf

Celebloki (2): Naerys, Roden
Naerys (2): Celebloki, Hu Tao
Dunnstral (1):
AnimatedWiz

AnimatedWiz
(1): Dunnstral

Not voting (2): Elements, Thomith


VC 2.06


AnimatedWiz
(4): Dunnstral, Hu Tao,
SirCakez
, Roden
Celebloki (2):
Flavor Leaf
,
AnimatedWiz

Hu Tao (1): Bingle
Naerys (1): Celebloki
Elements (1): Naerys

Not voting (2): Elements, Thomith


VC 2.07


SirCakez
(4): Roden,
Flavor Leaf
, Hu Tao, Thomith
Celebloki (1):
AnimatedWiz

Hu Tao (1): Bingle
Naerys (1): Celebloki
Elements (1): Naerys

Not voting (3): Elements, Dunnstral,
SirCakez



VC 2.08


SirCakez
(2): Roden,
Flavor Leaf

Bingle (1): Hu Tao
Hu Tao (1): Bingle
Naerys (1): Celebloki
Elements (1): Naerys

Not voting (5): Elements, Dunnstral,
SirCakez, AnimatedWiz,
Thomith


Votecount 2.09


SirCakez
(3): Roden, Hu Tao,
Flavor Leaf

Hu Tao (1): Bingle
Bingle (1):
AnimatedWiz

Naerys (1): Celebloki
Elements (1): Naerys

Not voting (4): Elements, Dunnstral,
SirCakez
, Thomith


Votecount 2.10


SirCakez
(4): Roden,
Flavor Leaf
, Thomith,
AnimatedWiz

Hu Tao (1): Bingle
Naerys (1): Celebloki
Elements (1): Naerys

Not voting (4): Elements, Dunnstral,
SirCakez
, Hu Tao


Votecount 2.11


SirCakez
(3): Roden,
Flavor Leaf
, Thomith
Naerys (1): Celebloki
Elements (1): Naerys
Bingle (1):
AnimatedWiz

Roden (1): Bingle

Not voting (4): Elements, Dunnstral,
SirCakez
, Hu Tao


Votecount 2.12


SirCakez
(6): Roden,
Flavor Leaf
, Thomith, Bingle, Celebloki, Dunnstral
Elements (1): Naerys
Bingle (1):
AnimatedWiz


Not voting (3): Elements,
SirCakez
, Hu Tao
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Post Post #1868 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 1:50 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

At first glance, Roden and Bingle look pretty rough VCA wise. I think we are living in a T/S world with them. Not 'impossible' that they are S/S, but I think that's tinfoil.
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Post Post #1869 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 2:12 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

OK I think Celebloki has a possibility of being mafia with the role claims. I think Roden's claim if investigated by the town rolecop could be assumed to be town, given town has no vigilante. Celebloki would likely be a mafia power role who would know when their action fails. It's hard to say because 3-4 power roles seems correct and the roles we have still seems on the weak side if Celebloki is mafia. Maybe the rolecop is stronger than we thing depending on mafia roles.

I am alright with looking elsewhere today though, just something I am keeping in mind. I doubt the jailkeeper claim is a fake. Roden if mafia would be claiming to keep Celebloki in the suspect pool because with only 3 power roles claimed I would be ready to call Celebloki town. I think the role cop dying makes Celebloki look worse.
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Post Post #1870 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 2:13 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 1855, Dunnstral wrote: I'm VT

Not sure what Bingle thinks I was "telegraphing so hard" :]
I read your defense of celeb yesterday as you being a town blocker (either JK or RB), actually.
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Post Post #1871 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 2:15 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 1856, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1833, Thomith wrote: Whatever I'll just claim.

I'm Town Jailkeeper.

This was why I kept saying I believed Celebloki when he said he was roleblocked Night 1, because he was my night 1 target. I also said that I thought Bingles (at least I think it was Bingle) theory about a Jailkeeper made sense, because I knew he was right, because I was a Jailkeeper.
I wasnt confident I'd be able to protect correctly Night 1, so I instead tried to block the kill by targeting someone I suspected. I targeted off wagon, for the WIFOM reason that scum may think someone on the wagon might be targeted by a town roleblock, so sent someone off wagon to do the kill instead.

I Jailkept Flavor Night 2, because I did believe that the Rolecop/Neap were on opposing factions, so assumed both claims would live through the night, so instead Jailkept a Vanilla claim I thought was likely to be attacked.

Tl;dr:
I'm claiming Jailkeeper
Night 1 Target was Celebloki
Night 2 Target was FL
That was me. Maybe flip a coin to decide if you are jailkeeping Celebloki tonight.
Tho should aim at scum. JK is easily the strongest role alive, and also assuredly town based on balance.
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Post Post #1872 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 2:16 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

I am leaning towards believing Roden's claim.

So I think if there is mafia in the prs it is Celebloki.
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Post Post #1873 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 2:17 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 1865, Flavor Leaf wrote: That being said, Thomith, Celeb, and Roden all have an individual chance of being scum, at varying degrees.
Don't be daft, flavor. Look at that balance.
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Post Post #1874 (ISO) » Tue Jan 02, 2024 2:18 pm

Post by Bingle »

In post 1872, Dunnstral wrote: I am leaning towards believing Roden's claim.

So I think if there is mafia in the prs it is Celebloki.
Setup wise, it's maybe one of the two but not both. I very much doubt that Roden is town here.

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