Mini 2321: Classic Commercials (Postgame)

[Gamma Emerald]

flavor

VC 3.01

VC 3.01

Bingle (2): Roden, Naerys
Elements (1): Thomith

Not voting (6): Hu Tao, Dunnstral, Celebloki, Flavor Leaf, Bingle, Elements

It takes 5 votes to eliminate someone.

Deadline: (expired on 2024-01-12 02:50:00).

combined mod ISO: here

Mod notes: currently searching for a replacement for Elements. Thomith is V/LA over the weekend.

[Dunnstral]

nah, still worth openly saying the coin flip scenarios, if only for the potential of a town Celeb getting more VT confirmations.

The whole point is that JK targeting Celeb makes it a 0% chance that there are more VT confirmations, AND in the situation where celeb is scum bakes in a reason that celeb doesn't have to have a result tomorrow.

There's also a 0% chance of more vt confirmations if they die during the night because the jk absolutely won't go there

In any case my opinion changed and it's not that bad if Celebloki dies given we suspect there. Only issue is if they are mafia they can simply perform the kill meaning our jk doesn't help anyway.

[Flavor Leaf]

yeah, if they are Maf, they probably wont make the kill anyways considering there's JK potential on them.

That's one of the big reasons to use that WIFOM there.

Shooting for who makes the kill is a much wider range of possibilities, and while it should definitely be considered, dont think it should be the sole option that is presented.

If it is, like Dunn said, Celeb just makes the kill.

[Thomith]

they dont have to listen to it, but dont see the purpose of letting it be on paper WIFOM'able.

The fact that I'm not going to publicly say what plan I'm going with should be enough WIFOM, no?

[Flavor Leaf]

they dont have to listen to it, but dont see the purpose of letting it be on paper WIFOM'able.

The fact that I'm not going to publicly say what plan I'm going with should be enough WIFOM, no?

yeah you're perf.

[Thomith]

the thing is, for me, idc if the replacement is the most townie to ever town on replace-in, im still probably going to wanna fade there based on my read on the other 2 in the slot, and my willingness to not push Bingle here yet.

I want to reread the ISOs, but I think I'm in the same boat here.
I want to reread everyone over the next few days if I can as well to try and get a more solid idea in place, because after Elements I'm not too sure where to go next.

[Flavor Leaf]

we are in ELO tomorrow if we misfade today. Maybe I should put some more work in.

[Flavor Leaf]

Thomith, Roden, Celebloki. at most, only 1 of these are scum based on PR count.

Naerys, Hu Tao, Bingle, Dunnstral, Elements slot. 2 of these, possibly 3 are scum.

[Naerys]

Pleasantly surprised Dunn didn’t die after telegraphing so hard, fwiw.

Bingle+ dunn could be buddies mhmm

What exactly about me suspecting Dunn was a JK makes me and Dunn likely partners?

Beceause it feels faked.Correct me if i am wrong but you didnt react to thom´s jk claim?

[Roden]

We know that Celeb has to die tonight because otherwise we'll have too many clears for scum to be able to win tomorrow. Thomith is conftown, and Leaf also becomes conftown after Celeb flips, and if Celeb doesn't die then we'll have a 3rd conftown tomorrow after he checks one of Bingle/Elements/Naerys. If he doesn't die then it's obvious he's just scum and we still get a guaranteed scum flip.

I still feel confident that Hu Tao and Dunn are town here. If Naerys is also town then Celeb has to be scum. Bingle and Elements are always red flips here, unless I got seriously snowed by some wacky team like Celeb/Leaf/Hu Tao.

[Roden]

Also Bingle guessing that Dunn was a PR feels really off since Dunn soft claimed VT early into Day 2

[Naerys]

Thomith, Roden, Celebloki. at most, only 1 of these are scum based on PR count.

Naerys, Hu Tao, Bingle, Dunnstral, Elements slot. 2 of these, possibly 3 are scum.

I think in Bingle -Dunn-Elements we have high chance of hitting scum. It could be actually solve of the game.

[Flavor Leaf]

Thomith, Roden, Celebloki. at most, only 1 of these are scum based on PR count.

Naerys, Hu Tao, Bingle, Dunnstral, Elements slot. 2 of these, possibly 3 are scum.

I think in Bingle -Dunn-Elements we have high chance of hitting scum. It could be actually solve of the game.

why do you town read hu tao?

[Flavor Leaf]

In all seriousness, Bingle/Dunn have partner equity imo.

[Flavor Leaf]

In all seriousness, Bingle/Dunn have partner equity imo.

like it's not a new or weird partner association

[Flavor Leaf]

oh damn.

Roden and Hu Tao actually have a huge amount of potential as a team.

[Flavor Leaf]

actually, i'm like 90% sure it's Roden.

70% sure it's Hu Tao.

[Flavor Leaf]

ill take it one further-- Roden is probs a Juggernaut.

[Flavor Leaf]

maybe this is a silly reason, but Bingle's fade feels like it's actually pretty easy to get today.

i feel Elements slot is ripe for the taking, and there's not many biters for it despite multiple players putting them on the team.

This kind of made me feel like ScumBingle didn't barely survive. Scum almost got TownBingle fade, but settled for Cakez.

Now we get to today, and somehow Hu Tao isn't even on the table anymore.

We also now specifically know that Cakez posting towards Hu Tao was 100% genuine, and I know my posting was 100% genuine, so this also raises Hu Tao scum equity, especially if Bingle ends up being town, because that means all 3 of us were on Hu Tao, and then the game got really chaotic. That's a sign of Hu Tao scum here, I believe, on a gamestate level.

Roden and I have also been very linked, and I think that was a play by Roden. That being said, they never got on the Hu Tao wagon, and I do believe the Bingle pushing Roden might have had some weight to it and placed Bingle in this situation to discredit that read.

[Flavor Leaf]

Okay, Wiz also had motive for Bingle to kill to, but could easily be a frame.

I think we are always living in a Bingle/Roden 1 town 1 scum kind of world.

I think S/S is more likely than a T/T world.

[Flavor Leaf]

in a world where Bingle is flipped today, and flips town, Celebloki result doesnt matter because it will be ELO, and they could have just been lying.

[Flavor Leaf]

Bingle
Flavor Leaf
Dunnstral
SirCakez
Celebloki
AnimatedWiz
Thomith


Naerys
RCEnigma
Roden
Hu Tao

Readslist.

yeah, this is it. In a Bingle town world, this is the exact split I got to.

[Flavor Leaf]

You just said you don't think she's good at playing scum

I didn't specify that she's bad at scum. I believe she's too self oriented to be good at the game in general. That has nothing to do with complex strategies, just personality.

This is a fair criticism. I think it started from when I went on vacation and didn't have enough time to play and it carried over to the holidays. I'll try to change this though going forward.

Okay now that I understand where bingle is getting this from. I think I'd rather cakes today.

VOTE: Cakez

I can see bingle being annoyed by my play and tunneling for that reason. I still think that based on that I shouldn't just auto be scum here.

Pages 64-66 look pretty rough for Hu Tao/Roden. Reading this back, I have a hard time not seeing it like the two scum discrediting Bingle, and Bingle has a decent case, even Hu Tao agreed, and then Hu Tao diffused the Hu Tao vs Bingle here, something Roden was spending effort doing before, and went to Cakez. It was a pivot.

[Flavor Leaf]

SirCakez

(5): Roden, Hu Tao,

Flavor Leaf, Thomith

,

Wiz

Hu Tao (1): Bingle
Naerys (1): Celebloki
RCEnigma (1): Naerys

Not voting (3): RCEnigma, Dunnstral,

SirCakez

yeah. Roden/Hu Tao.

[Naerys]

If FL wasnt 10000% town i would sus him for suspecting claimed bulletproof