Mini 2321: Classic Commercials (Postgame)

[Naerys]

Hu Tao felt genuinely solving to me, but i might need to look ar her iso

[Flavor Leaf]

If FL wasnt 10000% town i would sus him for suspecting claimed bulletproof

why?

I believe one of the PR's have a decent chance of being scum, and if Celeb is town, that raises Roden's scum equity up heavily. Not only that, it ties in with the potential of a juggernaut + the idea that a Role Cop was threatening to it.

That being said, I think 1-shot BP and JK feels really bad against a scum team that could already get wrecked out.

I also dont like the way it looked like Roden and Hu Tao instinctively got on the same agenda objectively that they did, and the Cakez wagon was a complete diffusing of Bingle vs Hu Tao, saving Hu Tao.

[Thomith]

I think im either on a FL pocket or a Hu Tao pocket which worries me.

FL obviously can only be scum if Celeb also is, and obviously isnt confirmed scum even if Celeb is.

Going to read through ISOs over the next few days or so to see which one this is..
Want to get my head together for ELo if i am there..

[Thomith]

Is RC and JK against scum 1shot Juggernaut and Neap/VC balanced?

[Roden]

Why would a Juggernaut exist in a setup that would get it guilty'd by two different town PRs?

Neap + Rolecop + Jailkeeper vs Juggernaut + 2 goons feels like a really bad set up and has no real cohesion

[Flavor Leaf]

Tinfoil of Roden Hu Tao

oh shit

[Flavor Leaf]

UNVOTE: Gob

Day got juicier.

Hu Tao TMI’ing Gob possibility tips the scale to where I think Gob is more likely to flip town than scum, whereas before the chance was more likely scum than town, which is always a good roll on Day 1.

Gob got White Knighted.

Fun thing about this is both Gob and Wiz were my candidates. It’s possible they are both town.

I don’t think I was hiding it very well, but I think Hu Tao is pretty obv scum here.

Not necessarily caring about their fade today because I think it’s just infinitely hard to fade someone like Hu Tao Scum on a Day 1, also in ways it’s not worth it sometimes.

But by their own admission, they were trying to ‘do nothing’ to get town read. This means they are actively trying to position themselves in a specific way in the game.

On top of this, when I stated they had done things already, they were salty because they thought they had ‘literally done nothing’. That reeks of scum being upset they got caught for wrong reasons.

Now the advocate for Vig on FL after I advocated for Cop on Hu Tao.

I would say bar a couple players, I am generally a solid town read player for most players. The difference is, I’m wanting Hu Tao checked, which if they are town, is very beneficial in the long run, especially towards someone who has been actively trying to become town read.

By their own admission, they’ve been ‘doing nothing’ on purpose to get town read, and that’s like the perfect investigative action onto a slot that’s in the background like that, and especially on a sneaky scum like her.

She advocates for a Vig on me, taking me out of the game.

That is a direct Threat Challenging of me. I want to town read Hu Tao if she’s town.

She wants me to die.

She doesn’t have to worry about reading me here.

It also helps guide a Vig off of scum team and onto a claimed Vanilla Townie.

If I am the only death, and ANYONE claims Vig, Hu Tao is scum here.

None of that maybe Vig targeted same player, maybe someone protected.

I have coasted so many games from a Vig claim, partner Vig claim, that I know how to set things up like that.

That is a potential crumb setup by Hu Tao in case they get Gunsmith guiltied they have that to fall back on.

[Flavor Leaf]

okay, gonna sleep.

roden/hu tao/naerys

bingle/elements/dunnstral

are my two splits. mix and match one maybe, but that's where im at.

[Naerys]

If one of the prs is scum then town feels pretty weak
Unless some pr is still in hiding

[Thomith]

If a PR is in hiding i feel like they are at best soft throwing at this point.

[Flavor Leaf]

I could see a world where it’s Dunn plus Bingle and RCEnigma, but I do think my read on Dunn is the strongest out of the 3 by far. I don’t like how he jumped to join Kyouko’s vote on me D1 with no explanation other than sheeping and then today claim

I’m

the one sitting back trying to be quiet when I’ve made twice the posts he has.

I don’t think all votes on me are instantly scummy, but I think a lack of solid reasoning for those votes

is

(the people who were with me in my last game can recount how I townread people voting me D1 and D2 because I agreed with their points). Dunn isn’t very convincing to me because the reasons he gives are very surface-level, and I do think he’s trying to get rid of me because I’m scumreading him.

P.S. Interesting note on the triangle: I currently townread Naerys, and I think she’s townreading me as well, so it’s more of a 2v1 with Dunn than a 1v1v1, I think.

this is a good post, though

[Hu Tao]

I think I'd be fine with getting rid of bingle or roden. I only tr roden since I thought he was a pr.

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: roden

[Thomith]

I think I'd be fine with getting rid of bingle or roden. I only tr roden since I thought he was a pr.

If one of the PRs are fake, why do you suspect Roden over me or Celeb?

[Hu Tao]

Because I thought he softed an innocent. And both of your claims check out. Unless you're scum together idk

[Thomith]

Because I thought he softed an innocent. And both of your claims check out. Unless you're scum together idk

Rigt, makes sense.

@Roden why did you say what you did about "wanting to try something different" when TRing Hu Tao?

[Bingle]

they dont have to listen to it, but dont see the purpose of letting it be on paper WIFOM'able.

The fact that I'm not going to publicly say what plan I'm going with should be enough WIFOM, no?

Actually what I was going for. I think you should make the decision after night start. The reason I was fighting so hard there was that giving preference to celeb fl targets just makes it easy to kill you.

[Bingle]

If FL wasnt 10000% town i would sus him for suspecting claimed bulletproof

Why? Bp is an incredibly convenient claim AFTER a ev dies. No one can guilty him, there’s no reason he would ever die at night and he didn’t share that he was a potential rc inno when the rc could have, yknow, made a bulletproof IC.

[Bingle]

Rc not ev.

[Celebloki]

I think my preferred fades today are between RCE/Elements and Roden. I think RCE/Elements is a really safe bet at that. I think there's still something about Dunn that irks me from his associations with Wiz and Kyouko in the early game. Hu Tao has good goon potential. I think I place Naerys and Bingle at the end of the list. I'm obviously not interested in going after Thomith or especially FL.

I need to find some time to read back some people. I recently had to take a step back from Mafia as start of year looks like it's going to be stupid busy for me. I'm hoping to try and get some actual analysis in and not just go off gut reads.

[Celebloki]

Why would a Juggernaut exist in a setup that would get it guilty'd by two different town PRs?

Neap + Rolecop + Jailkeeper vs Juggernaut + 2 goons feels like a really bad set up and has no real cohesion

Also wanted to respond to this, a Neap wouldn't guilty a juggernaut, it would just out that it's not a VT. Could still be a town PR with no other info.

[Hu Tao]

It's certain one of the pr is scum imo. We should be voting there.

[Naerys]

It's certain one of the pr is scum imo. We should be voting there.

Me: Hu Tao is genuinely trying to solve
Hu Tao: makes this post
Me:

Thom jailkept Celebloki and Cele himself said he was blocked even before Thom claimed, i believe.
I think this rather strongly indicates that both are town.

[Celebloki]

What do you think about Roden's claim though?

[Naerys]

I think he should have claimed it earlier, now it does look opportunistic. I recently rolled as 1-shot bulletproof town so i know this claim will always get some suspiction. I am inclined to believe it for now.