Large Normal 246: Game Over

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Those are millers, not masons

implying we're not masons that decided to fakeclaim miller in pregame

note to self: do this next time I roll mason
note to everyone else: for legal reasons, don't take that note to self seriously if you roll scum against me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Spoiler: the master plan

Alright well, I was drafting something when the Neighborizer realization hit me and I've since deleted the notepad - I was rereading - cant remember what exactly, but I dont think I started on page 1 - and some post of Hu Tao's I think it was prompted me to look at the setup/claims again and start writing shit out.

I dont really want to be on the chopping block but I don't think limming VTs is the way to go. I remember writing down that I seriously doubt there are any TPRs that claimed VT to hide their role, so we should let dave 'clear' the VTs while we work on finding the scum in the PRs.

We've had, 6 VT flips/claims. 6/13 town being vanilla I think is reasonable given that Millers are just more vanillas that can be cleared by rolecop in this setup. 8 'vanillas' and 5 PRs. All investigatives claimed/flipped are pretty much only able to clear, not guilty, and we had 2 weaker (RN kills himself if he hits scum and dies after 1 successful protect) (Guillo is 2-shot) protectives and 2 FN claims.

Hu Tao - confirmed vanilla by flipped rolecop result
Enchant/BQ2 - confirmed vanilla by unflipped davesaz - at least one must be vanilla as there's just not 5 scum here I don't think
JV (Timmer) - claimed VT
KK - flipped VT
Elements - flipped VT

I think what we need is for dave/RN to clear each other/JV while we lim inside the PRs. So we cant lim either of them. It needs to be between me, dunnstral, and guillo today

Going to flesh this out a little more as it was made on my phone

[Naerys]

Naerys, sheep me please.

Promise me you are not scum

[Broccoli Quest 2]

I promise

[Broccoli Quest 2]

Lock town: Naerys, Enchant

Almost lock town: Hu Tao, Guillo, Nurse

I can't agree on Enchant, and you won't be surprised that not listing me here draws considerable ire.

Why should I be locking you town?

And as I said, I don't expect people to agree on Enchant. That's my take on them anyway.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Spoiler: I drafted this but after VCA/reconsideration I disagree with the plan - here is what I had for anyone curious

Guillo - 2-shot something something doc
RN - combined bodyguard disloyal vig
Davesaz - simple neighborizer
Dunn - no mech ties to the living - did receive Andres' FN message
Kyouko - no mech ties
Naerys - FNed to Guillo

Vanillas (4 alive):
Hu Tao - confirmed vanilla
Enchant/BQ2 - at least one confirmed, both after dave flip
JV (Timmer) - unconfirmed, joins Enchant/BQ2 category after toMorrow if Dave neighborizes successfully
KK - flipped
Elements - flipped


10 alive, 8-2 now. Lim one, if town, move to 6-2 or be 1 town!RN down - will refer to these as evens/odds.

Evens (assuming neighborization works): 2 mislims moves to 4-2 MELO. If we stay in the PRs (assuming JV gets confirmed vanilla), we can kill 2 of {Guillo, RN, Davesaz, Dunn, Kyouko, Naerys} before having to make the potentially game-losing choice in MELO.
Naerys should never die before Guillo because if Guillo is mislimmed (not scum) it removes Naerys from the POE. Dave should be allowed at least one more Night to Neighborize JV -
In evens, there is still a possibilty that RN is scum - assuming he lives this long, he's either getting blocked or getting clears. I've been thinking on this a little - the Andres kill makes sense mechanically because he was the only one left that could help us confirm who, if anyone, was being aliened.
With him dead now, he can't speak up and say "actually I targeted X (not RN) so if they didn't receive the message it means RN can't have been blocked last Night because either X or I was blocked"

Odds: 2 mislims and RN dying leads to 3-2 ELO, where we can kill 2 of {Guillo, Davesaz, Dunn, Kyouko, Naerys} before the potentially game-losing mislim. Again with the Naerys/Guillo thing, thats 2 of {Guillo, Davesaz, Dunn, Kyouko} and if both are misses then ELO is a 1v1 between the last 2 - no way are 2 (more) vanillas scum here I think, unless that's been the whole point of the setup.

Replaced all old names with current slot owners
D1 final:

KawaiiKame

-

Andresvmb

, Dunnstral, Kyouko,

Gamma

,

Black

,

Elements

, Naerys, JacksonVirgo,

Celebloki

Gamma

- Hu Tao, Guillotina
Enchant - dave,

KawaiiKame

ssbm_Kyouko -

Roden

Hu Tao - Broccoli Quest 2
not voting - Random Nurse, Enchant

D2 final:

Roden

- Broccoli Quest 2, Dunnstral, Kyouko, davesaz, Hu Tao, Guillotina,

Elements

, Naerys
Hu Tao - Random Nurse,

Roden

Elements

- Enchant,

Andresvmb

not voting - JacksonVirgo,

Celebloki

D3 final:

Elements

-

Andresvmb

, Hu Tao, ssbm_Kyouko, Dunnstral, Naerys, JacksonVirgo,

Elements

JacksonVirgo - Guillotina, Enchant, Broccoli Quest 2
not voting - Random Nurse, davesaz

Also looking at final VCs for quick patterns -
Hu Tao was on unlimmed scum D1 and on the D2(scum)/D3(town) final wagons: +town for being on scum on D1 and then joins in on the townblocking (below) after D1
Dunnstral, Kyouko, and Naerys on all 3 final wagons: inconclusive - though I know I'm town, I TR Naerys, and Naerys has the FN claim - so this is probably just townblocking
JV on both town wagons (D1/D3) - not voting when scum dies on D2: ++scum
Guillotina on scum D1 and on the scum wagon D2 - off both town wagons: +town/TMI, I suspect the claim but not necessarily the play as far as I can remember. Need to self-ISO.
Dave/BQ2 - off town, on scum, off town on D1/D2/D3: +town/TMI, but I TR BQ2 independently - dave could be TMI without looking at context of votes and recalling my general suspicion of his D1 play.
Random Nurse - not voting, off scum (voting HT with Roden), not voting: +slightly scum
Enchant - Not voting (was Keyleth at this point), off scum, off town: +slightly scum

I think, in a shocking new twist, I am going to ditch my mech plan as I've already been bitten in the ass once by Gamma in this game and accept this is not an Open setup and nothing is guaranteed, even less so when Jingle is the mod and it's a "complex" game.

I am down for JV or RN toDay. I suspect Andres was killed to allow scum!RN to get by claiming he could have been blocked. Aside from that his voting patterns are poor, but no worse than Enchant's. JV has the worst voting patterns at end of day, and I've already individually cased Timmer before him, and I think by both Timmer's play and the catchup is the most likely to flip scum. BQ2 has also been my town "rock" since Black died and he has been on the correct wagons all 3 Days and now he is pushing for JV, I'm going to go with it. Not as a sheep because I'm the one that originally cased Timmer, but as like a townblocking thing. Hopefully Dunn, Naerys, Hu Tao will all join this, JV will flip scum, and we'll have a solid voting block/towncore to move forward with

VOTE: JacksonVirgo

[ssbm_Kyouko]

JV also feels the most likely of anyone to flip scum and if we are in a scum!JV/town!RN world, town!RN can no longer be blocked

while

scum nightkills which means scum probably kills RN anyways if JV is scum, to stop RN from giving clears.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

That is my final vote for toDay most likely - got about 40 minutes left before I'm V/LA for the weekend, and I think the 24h extension just moves the deadline from Saturday to Sunday for me

[Broccoli Quest 2]

VOTE: JV

Hu Tao I know you are the queen of reads but if you want me to blindly sheep you this game we need to flip JV. Then I will just do whatever you say.

Naerys, I'm still waiting to be sheeped.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh darn, checked Hu Tao's ISO I don't think they're a JV vote we can count on

[Enchant]

Not true, you sheep kyouko.

You can't be sheeped if you are sheep

[Naerys]

VOTE: JV

[Broccoli Quest 2]

Not true, you sheep kyouko.

You can't be sheeped if you are sheep

I was voting JV earlier, switched back when it gained momentum. Doesn't count as sheeping.

[Broccoli Quest 2]

VOTE: JV

Oh no

Naerys was right

I am actually pocketing her

[Naerys]

I just want this day to be over. It feels like a very stale bread.

[Random Nurse]

I think it's one scum in RN/Guillo, and one in Enchant (Key)/JV (Timmer).

Naerys and myself are the only people I don't suspect in some way.

Hu Tao's lie is not something I'm ever going to forget
Brocolli gets some scum equity as a pushy and somewhat manipulative slot IMO who is still around

One of the millers is a distinct possibility. Totally mixed feelings on Kyouko, correctness on mech isn't really AI and there are flashes of feeling like there is an agenda.
Dunnstral's role is confirmed, mafia miller is basically the only way he can be scum and he'd be last in POE.

Well this is new.

Why exactly do you mention me, Dave?

Explain to me your exact thought process.

[Random Nurse]

If I was Scum I wouldn't have claimed such a ridiculously convoluted PR.

[davesaz]

One of those sets is PRs that can't be / haven't been confirmed. The other set is claimed vanillas with predecessors who couldn't find a read if it was on a table in front of them.

As for whether you'd claim something convoluted or not as scum, I really don't know. One of the hallmarks of skilled scum is doing things people think they wouldn't do.

[Random Nurse]

One of those sets is PRs that can't be / haven't been confirmed. The other set is claimed vanillas with predecessors who couldn't find a read if it was on a table in front of them.

As for whether you'd claim something convoluted or not as scum, I really don't know. One of the hallmarks of skilled scum is doing things people think they wouldn't do.

And, knowing our extensive history together, how skilled do you think I am in general as SCUM?

Be honest please—I won't be offended.

[davesaz]

Don't think I've seen you as scum since I came back?

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: JacksonVirgo

[JacksonVirgo]

zzz

[Random Nurse]

Don't think I've seen you as scum since I came back?

I've been Scum multiple times and don't do well as Scum.

I don't remember the exact games but I think you've played with me long enough to have a clue about my Town meta.

[Jingle]

Vote Count 4.6

JacksonVirgo

(E-2): ssbm_Kyouko, Broccoli Quest 2, Naerys, Dunnstral,

Guillotina

(E-4): Random Nurse, Hu Tao,

Naerys

,

ssbm_Kyouko

(E-5): Guillotina,

Dunnstral

(E-5):

Broccoli Quest 2

, Enchant,

davesaz

(E-6):

Enchant

(E-6):

Hu Tao

(E-6):

Broccoli Quest 2

(E-6):

Naerys

(E-6):

Random Nurse

(E-6):

Not Voting

: davesaz, JacksonVirgo,

With 10 alive it takes 6 to eject a player from the Game.

Deadline is (expired on 2024-01-07 21:48:36).

Mod Notes: D Flat

[Dunnstral]

If I was Scum I wouldn't have claimed such a ridiculously convoluted PR.

I agree with this