Mini 2321: Classic Commercials (Postgame)

[Roden]

Yeah, to clarify my point, I'm agreeing that the 1-shot BP is a convenient claim that is likely a lie. I suspect he is the liar in the PR claims and doubt town has all 4 of the claimed PRs as they stand.

For the setup theorist nerds, what is the balance likelihood that Thom could be a Scum JK/RB?

Why do you think I fake claimed BP instead of trying to CC you?

[Bingle]

Yeah, to clarify my point, I'm agreeing that the 1-shot BP is a convenient claim that is likely a lie. I suspect he is the liar in the PR claims and doubt town has all 4 of the claimed PRs as they stand.

For the setup theorist nerds, what is the balance likelihood that Thom could be a Scum JK/RB?

None. The only way to balance scum jk here would be massive negative scum utility roles which isn’t a thing in simple normal setups.

[Bingle]

WIthout a Vig 1SBP seems weird for scum to have for a Simple though imo.

How so?

We literally had this discussion about why a rolecop Neapolitan result is a clear

[Celebloki]

I'm honestly not sure what the motivation would be for that claim. I'm generally surprised counter claiming isn't something I've seen more often. From the games I've been in so far I've never actually seen someone attempt to go head to head in a true counter claim.

At this point, from a balance standpoint (I know very little about what a balanced setup looks like mind you) I just don't think town can have all 4 of those roles. I'm just trying to decide which of you or Thom is more likely to be lying. As the game has gone on, I've just town read Thom more than you.

Considering it's dangerous for the scum that have made VT claims, I'm surprised there weren't more PR fake claims to make my job harder since I can't confirm them, just that they aren't VTs. It would seem to me to have been a better strategy for all the scum players to fake claim PRs or at least one of them to CC me and get me out before I could find out otherwise.

[Roden]

WIthout a Vig 1SBP seems weird for scum to have for a Simple though imo.

How so?

We literally had this discussion about why a rolecop Neapolitan result is a clear

What does that have to do with 1-shot BP?

[Roden]

I'm honestly not sure what the motivation would be for that claim. I'm generally surprised counter claiming isn't something I've seen more often. From the games I've been in so far I've never actually seen someone attempt to go head to head in a true counter claim.

At this point, from a balance standpoint (I know very little about what a balanced setup looks like mind you) I just don't think town can have all 4 of those roles. I'm just trying to decide which of you or Thom is more likely to be lying. As the game has gone on, I've just town read Thom more than you.

Considering it's dangerous for the scum that have made VT claims, I'm surprised there weren't more PR fake claims to make my job harder since I can't confirm them, just that they aren't VTs. It would seem to me to have been a better strategy for all the scum players to fake claim PRs or at least one of them to CC me and get me out before I could find out otherwise.

This doesn't answer the question, you just talked around it.

[Roden]

My dude...if more scum aren't faking PR claims then they clearly aren't afraid of you being a Neap

Why do you think that is

[Thomith]

I'm honestly not sure what the motivation would be for that claim. I'm generally surprised counter claiming isn't something I've seen more often. From the games I've been in so far I've never actually seen someone attempt to go head to head in a true counter claim.

At this point, from a balance standpoint (I know very little about what a balanced setup looks like mind you) I just don't think town can have all 4 of those roles. I'm just trying to decide which of you or Thom is more likely to be lying. As the game has gone on, I've just town read Thom more than you.

Considering it's dangerous for the scum that have made VT claims, I'm surprised there weren't more PR fake claims to make my job harder since I can't confirm them, just that they aren't VTs. It would seem to me to have been a better strategy for all the scum players to fake claim PRs or at least one of them to CC me and get me out before I could find out otherwise.

If I was scum Roleblocker/Jailkeeper, why would I start hard defending you, essentially soft claiming that I roleblocked you (to the point of I'm actually genuinely surprised nobody picked up on this - I thought FL may have, but he didn't mention it really), especially after people were initially 1) scumreading you for the "No Result" thing, and 2) assuming you were blocked by scum?

[Roden]

If FL wasnt 10000% town i would sus him for suspecting claimed bulletproof

Why? Bp is an incredibly convenient claim AFTER a ev dies. No one can guilty him, there’s no reason he would ever die at night and he didn’t share that he was a potential rc inno when the rc could have, yknow, made a bulletproof IC.

Also what even is this logic?

At what point could the Rolecop have checked me? He died before he could even confirm the Neap. My claim can't be "convenient", because if I'm scum then I knew Wiz was going to die N2 anyway, so it didn't matter whether I claimed D2 or D3.

[Thomith]

Kyouko is just such a weird target when we had an actual VT claim that no one really disputed should be investigated

Yeah, the inconsistencies are there in celeb. They stalled for the claim, but couldn’t much longer.

They also had to be a N1 Roleblock target on top of it.

The roleblock feels like a weird thing to fake though, when it would just make the claim less believable?

It’s a stronger claim with it. Why would Celebloki of all players here be roleblocked N1 and then just happen to get pushed here today?

Why did it take that long to get to the claim?

They spent the time with a scum partner crafting the claim.

I believe him when he says he got no result.

I believe that you believe that.

Like I kept pushing that I believed you got Roleblocked until I saw this post, because I assumed this was at least somebody picking up what I was trying to subtly (or not so subtly) try and hint at.

[Celebloki]

Thom, I do believe that you're a town JK, I was mainly playing devil's advocate with those posts and just trying to get a sanity check about whether or not I should be taking your claim as fact.

Roden, I did answer your question. I said I don't know why you would make that claim. How am I supposed to know what you were thinking when you made that claim. I'm not going to justify for you why it was a good or bad claim.

[Roden]

Thom, I do believe that you're a town JK, I was mainly playing devil's advocate with those posts and just trying to get a sanity check about whether or not I should be taking your claim as fact.

Roden, I did answer your question. I said I don't know why you would make that claim. How am I supposed to know what you were thinking when you made that claim. I'm not going to justify for you why it was a good or bad claim.

If you don't know why I would make that claim then 1) you have no case and 2) you aren't scum hunting.

[Roden]

I feel like it's obvious that I'm not scum here and that I'm being honest about my claim

I've been pushing Celeb as scum for awhile, if I were actually scum pushing a town PR and Hu Tao made it clear that she thought someone softed an inno on her, then I was already set up to fake claim a PR equivalent to Neap so I could counter claim Celeb

What's the use in claiming BP when I had the trajectory to feasibly counter claim Celeb and get him voted out without having to use a NK to get rid of him

Celeb if you cannot explain this then you are just caught scum

[Roden]

You want to push me as scum fake claiming BP, but you can't make a case for it and you can't even fathom a motivation for my actions

[Celebloki]

Where I'm at right now is that I obviously locktown FL, I cleared him. I am placing Thom in a similar slot just shy of locktown, maybe a slight bit of paranoia still about him.

Dunn and Bingle are kind of equivalent in that I am not sure where I stand with them, but I probably more town lean them.

Naerys and Hu Tao are maybe just behind them, slightly more confused on how to read them.

And my preferred lim pool is between Elements and Roden. I'm pretty sure this is 2/3 of the scumteam.

[Celebloki]

I don't need to be able to explain why you would fake claim BP. How does that even make sense. The case from my point of view is just PoE. If I am believing Thom, I'm of the belief that your PR claim just doesn't fit. I don't think there's a world where town has Neap, RC, JK, and a 1-shot BP. I obviously believe myself, Wiz flipped, and I'm believing Thom. PoE means you. That's the whole case.

[Roden]

"It's not me so it's you" is not scum hunting lol

[Roden]

Who's the final scum Celeb? You said it's PoE right? So who is it?

[Celebloki]

I'm saying it's not Thom, it's you. Not it's not me.

[Celebloki]

I'm PoEing the PR claims right now, not the rest. I was pretty clear that I also think it's Elements. Whoever the last is I really don't know. Of the 4 it could be, I probably most think it's in Naerys or Hu Tao.

[Roden]

Thank you for spewing those two as town, that's what I was looking for

[Celebloki]

Aww man, I missed my 1000th post, I was gonna mark it. Well I'm finally at 4 digits.

[Naerys]

Why me? People keep mentioning me as possible scum, but when i asked for you all to speak your concerns about me, then there was huge silence.

[Flavor Leaf]

Why me? People keep mentioning me as possible scum, but when i asked for you all to speak your concerns about me, then there was huge silence.

I think you’re just POE.

Townier people than you, scummier people than you.

Don’t have a strong case either way for you, and this point in the game, that’s worrying.

[Celebloki]

I think I need to keep you in perpetual suspicion purely because I have no idea what scum!Naerys looks like. I've been in multiple games with you so far and have yet to see what your confirmed scum game looks like. I'm not putting it past you to finally roll scum and be able to play it off like town!Naerys. FWIW, I don't think you're today's fade, at least I'm not sold on going there yet.