Mini Normal 2324: Fake Fantasy Facts | Postgame

[Gypyx]

but i feel like they don't make much sense as a mafia member in terms of the game event so i'm holding on to it

Please, can you elaborate on why you feel this?

Gotta admit, i'm working a bit off of my memory of my thoughts here but basically given the small level of chaos we have / her (lack of) interactions with the margot wagon she basically hasn't acted with a scum agenda, which could mean deepscum but most likely town

They had Margot as a suspect for most of day 1 but never really pressured or questioned there, and only joined the wagon briefly between 313 and 347. I think that pattern of action is if anything more indicative of a possible scum agenda.

Similarly, the very early threatening to hammer Margot in 170 seems more likely to serve a scum purpose (scare people into unvoting the wagon while looking like you were willing to vote scum) than a town purpose. It's a strange post to make if you're unaware of Margot's alignment, but it makes sense for someone who knows Margot is scum.

If Enchant is scum, Hu Tao also has served scum agenda by saying that we should "find the scum on gamma" by voting out Delta or Upwards (971),

while conveniently giving Enchant a pass despite Enchant also being on gamma (900).

for the early hammering, that's just how hu tao plays it seems, even then, they made the same threat around Gamma wagon, even if they didn't actually go through with it

I mean, it *is* a good reason to give enchant a pass on that no? This is the most devoid of meaning vote there is out there, maybe sliiiightly +scum since i've found it's a bit harder as mafia to switch your vote around so it might've been easier for scum!alianna to just leave it as is

[Gypyx]

the annoyance around there being nothing to talk about might also come a bit from an informed perspective? Like, that's maybe a me thing but as a townie there's thousands of things i could ask about at anytime, irrelevant yes but when you know the truth it's hard to have theories that are so out there come to your mind

If you refer to my reply to Naerys in 1012, the "nothing new to talk about" refered to my own wagon that had more votes than arguments behind it at that point. And I’m a fan of actual arguments so that was what annoyed me.

In fact there are a couple of things I’d like to talk about outside of myself. For starters, any thoughts on Delta and Hu Tao?

Hu Tao i read as scum but i feel like they don't make much sense as a mafia member in terms of the game event so i'm holding on to it

Delta is probably the slots i have the least thoughts about but i trust they're town

what about you?

It should come as no surprise when I say that I have my suspicions about both of them currently. Delta even more than Hu Tao.

They’re not the only ones though. I’m still waiting on an actual argument for Mucho Mans vote for me and when I looked back over Gammas Elimination I found Margots 731 about the Enchant slot interesting, still have to make up my mind about how to read that though.

that's a lot of SR's lol, you might wanna thin a bit the list of who you wanna go for

btw when reffering to individual posts, it is good practice to use the "post" tags[post=*number of the post you wanna link*]text that will show the link[/post]

[Upwards]

the annoyance around there being nothing to talk about might also come a bit from an informed perspective? Like, that's maybe a me thing but as a townie there's thousands of things i could ask about at anytime, irrelevant yes but when you know the truth it's hard to have theories that are so out there come to your mind

If you refer to my reply to Naerys in 1012, the "nothing new to talk about" refered to my own wagon that had more votes than arguments behind it at that point. And I’m a fan of actual arguments so that was what annoyed me.

In fact there are a couple of things I’d like to talk about outside of myself. For starters, any thoughts on Delta and Hu Tao?

Hu Tao i read as scum but i feel like they don't make much sense as a mafia member in terms of the game event so i'm holding on to it

Delta is probably the slots i have the least thoughts about but i trust they're town

what about you?

It should come as no surprise when I say that I have my suspicions about both of them currently. Delta even more than Hu Tao.

They’re not the only ones though. I’m still waiting on an actual argument for Mucho Mans vote for me and when I looked back over Gammas Elimination I found Margots 731 about the Enchant slot interesting, still have to make up my mind about how to read that though.

that's a lot of SR's lol, you might wanna thin a bit the list of who you wanna go for

btw when reffering to individual posts, it is good practice to use the "post" tags[post=*number of the post you wanna link*]text that will show the link[/post]

I can see your point, but, like, what can I do?

Delta and Hu Tao decided to say one thing and do the other, Mucho Man argued in what appeared like really bad faith to me, and Enchant is just acting super strange. I can not not be suspicious of them at this point.

Also thanks for telling me how to link posts. I can’t believe we’re over 1000 posts deep and I’ve not heard of it until now.


Test 731

[Upwards]

Btw, Laplacian, I meant to ask you something that I got sidetracked from: What’s wrong with my chess metaphor that you criticized in 657 and 977? And for that matter, what’s your chess Elo that you can make that judgement?

[Enchant]

My will and way to goal are unchanged.

[DeltaWave]

Why are you declaring intent to hammer with a week left in the day phase when you were hesitant to have Gamma on E-1 at the end of the previous day?

Wtf are you talking about. I was the E-1 vote. How was I hesitant?

My reference was to this:

VOTE: Gamma, but I would unvote if Gamma got to E-1. I still want to get more information out of Alianna's replacement and to get some more activity in general going from people who are lower in the post counts. I'd also like Zeb to explain his vote, which seemed to come out of nowhere, and which made me think some things that I'll share after he explains.

It's a markedly different mentality and I was wondering what was the cause for the difference.

What the fuck are you talking about?

1. Post 445 is not "the end of the day" as you claimed in the first quoted post. It was 250 posts prior to the end of the day, which ended prematurely because GE unexpectedly self-hammered.

2. At the time of Post 445, we were still in D1 and Alianna just replaced. Also, I was waiting on more information from Zeb. Plus, there was still a lot of inactivity going around.

3. Are you going to do this every time? "You didn't want to quickhammer on D1 so how come you want to eliminate someone in D2 and beyond????"

I just don't know if you're trying to wind me up or if you're just trying to come up with some kind of argument but the reality is that D2 (and beyond) are different from D1. We have a lot more information, a lot more activity, and flips to look at in D2+. So yeah I'm against a D1 quickhammer.

[DeltaWave]

I forgot to mention that the only person who said they would quickhammer GE was Hu, but then Hu backed off that position. I didn't expect GE to do it herself.

[DeltaWave]

Delta and Hu Tao decided to say one thing and do the other, Mucho Man argued in what appeared like really bad faith to me, and Enchant is just acting super strange. I can not not be suspicious of them at this point.

LIKE I SAID ABOVE - I DIDN'T THINK GE WAS AT RISK OF BEING QUICKHAMMERED BECAUSE I DIDN'T THINK SHE WOULD SELF HAMMER

[Enchant]

Pointing deadly weapon at someone.

Hoping no one will trigger it.

What a laughable way to fail.

[Naerys]

S

Hoping no one will trigger it.

I didnt expect Gamma to self hammer either.

[Prince of Paterson]

for the early hammering, that's just how hu tao plays it seems, even then, they made the same threat around Gamma wagon, even if they didn't actually go through with it

I don't think it is. I searched their past games and the only time they've done something similar is here, where they were encouraging people to hammer a strong scumread they had. The other times they've encouraged hammers are much later in games. In this game, they weren't pushing Margot at all, so it's a very unusual. If they're scum, they most likely said the same about Gamma in order to make it look like a playstyle quirk.

I mean, it *is* a good reason to give enchant a pass on that no? This is the most devoid of meaning vote there is out there, maybe sliiiightly +scum since i've found it's a bit harder as mafia to switch your vote around so it might've been easier for scum!alianna to just leave it as is

I don't think Alianna's vote is suspicious. I think it's suspicious to create a narrative that there has to be a scum on gamma and then limit the pool of who that scum could be. There's no particular reason that there should be 1 scum on Gamma. There could be 2 or 0. And 820 states that her reads include Alianna/Enchant as possible scum on Gamma, but she decides to exclude them from the pool she's pushing. That doesn't feel natural. There's no reason for town to draw arbitrary lines and boxes and only consider pushes within those. If there's someone who looks like scum, push them.

[Enchant]

Still foolish.

As people say, don't point gun at someone, who you don't want to die.

This rule written with bloody inks.

[Naerys]

I think it's suspicious to create a narrative that there has to be a scum on gamma and then limit the pool of who that scum could be

considering how Margot´s wagon fell apart its fair to asume that there is scum on Gamma

[Prince of Paterson]

Why are you declaring intent to hammer with a week left in the day phase when you were hesitant to have Gamma on E-1 at the end of the previous day?

Wtf are you talking about. I was the E-1 vote. How was I hesitant?

My reference was to this:

VOTE: Gamma, but I would unvote if Gamma got to E-1. I still want to get more information out of Alianna's replacement and to get some more activity in general going from people who are lower in the post counts. I'd also like Zeb to explain his vote, which seemed to come out of nowhere, and which made me think some things that I'll share after he explains.

It's a markedly different mentality and I was wondering what was the cause for the difference.

What the fuck are you talking about?

1. Post 445 is not "the end of the day" as you claimed in the first quoted post. It was 250 posts prior to the end of the day, which ended prematurely because GE unexpectedly self-hammered.

2. At the time of Post 445, we were still in D1 and Alianna just replaced. Also, I was waiting on more information from Zeb. Plus, there was still a lot of inactivity going around.

3. Are you going to do this every time? "You didn't want to quickhammer on D1 so how come you want to eliminate someone in D2 and beyond????"

I just don't know if you're trying to wind me up or if you're just trying to come up with some kind of argument but the reality is that D2 (and beyond) are different from D1. We have a lot more information, a lot more activity, and flips to look at in D2+. So yeah I'm against a D1 quickhammer.

Relax. I wasn't saying you were suspicious for the difference, I was asking why there was a difference. Thank you for the explanation.

I think that ending this day at the time you suggested is significantly more premature, so I didn't understand why you were fine with it.

[Gypyx]

yup, exactly what Naerys said, i don't see how that day 1 happens without at least 1 scum on Gamma

[Naerys]

Also Alianna slot can be either LHF or scum. I dont mind sorting Alianna first, but then we should look at Upwards.

[Prince of Paterson]

There were at least 5 town votes on Gamma. 5 town players found Gamma to be suspicious. More than that, in fact, because there were additional players who supported the wagon but didn't end up actually being among the people voting it. It's foolish to believe that 7 votes couldn't have happened without scum influence.

Additionally, if you actually read how the day developed, the one player who did the most to influence the wagon and push people towards Gamma over Margot is Claptastik, who is also excluded from Hu Tao's pool. If you believe that scum influenced the game onto Gamma, then that should be the first place you look.

To be clear, I think it would be surprising if all 7 votes on Gamma were town. My point is that you're drawing lines that are fairly arbitrary and not based on what actually happened in the game, and I believe it's limiting your perspective.

[DragonEater70]

Replacing Macho Man Randy Passion.

[Laplacian]

Replacing Macho Man Randy Passion.

Noooo. Damn you Vince McMahon! Damn you to hell!

[Laplacian]

Why are you declaring intent to hammer with a week left in the day phase when you were hesitant to have Gamma on E-1 at the end of the previous day?

Wtf are you talking about. I was the E-1 vote. How was I hesitant?

My reference was to this:

VOTE: Gamma, but I would unvote if Gamma got to E-1. I still want to get more information out of Alianna's replacement and to get some more activity in general going from people who are lower in the post counts. I'd also like Zeb to explain his vote, which seemed to come out of nowhere, and which made me think some things that I'll share after he explains.

It's a markedly different mentality and I was wondering what was the cause for the difference.

There's also this

We have a whole week left for the day. Going into night when we have like, four or five people who haven't really contributed is not pro-town.

More evidence for a different mentality. Moving from a cautious day 1, wanting to take things slow and get get alll the info, to full-on HAMMERTIME is a big switch.

[Laplacian]

yup, exactly what Naerys said, i don't see how that day 1 happens without at least 1 scum on Gamma

Also Alianna slot can be either LHF or scum. I dont mind sorting Alianna first, but then we should look at Upwards.

Agreed with both 1+ scum on Gamma and Enchant first.

I think Enchant/Alianna slot has to be the flip today because of how weird the vote was. Since Alianna vanished after voting and had no replacement until D2, it effectively meant Gamma required one less vote.

If Enchant is scum, we find the other scum on the wagon as well. My logic is that scum could hop on that wagon knowing Alianna's vote was safe for them. Alianna's vote wouldn't be moved without checking into scumchat first, making it a very easy wagon for Scum to support. Margot stayed off in order to gain some towncred as has been called out earlier

If Enchant is town though, I think it's one on, one off since the wagon wasn't as secure for scum.

[Laplacian]

Btw, Laplacian, I meant to ask you something that I got sidetracked from: What’s wrong with my chess metaphor that you criticized in 657 and 977? And for that matter, what’s your chess Elo that you can make that judgement?

First, this is a social, hidden-information, 13 player, asymmetric game. A comparison to an entirely mechanical, open-information, 2 player, symmetric game will always be flawed.

Second, dubious sacrifice generally implies that the sacrifice is bad; if it was good you'd call it a sound sacrifice. However, sacrificing a scum buddy can definitely pay off if you get enough hard allies. Since the game is social, a bluff is way more powerful here than in chess where you can rigorously analyze some lines to check if a sacrifice actually pays off. If I had to make a chess comparison, hardbussing a scum buddy for clout early would be the Halloween Gambit - where you sac a knight move 4 for crazy strategic presence unless the opponents play perfectly.

And I'm about 1500. Not amazing by any means, but enough that the chess comparison pinged me.

[Naerys]

VOTE: Enchant
green Enchant - look at Upwards, Prince of Paterson
Red Enchant - look at lucca - sat at Upwards basically whole D1, only at the end switche dto Laplacian

[Gypyx]

VOTE: Enchant
green Enchant - look at Upwards, Prince of Paterson
Red Enchant - look at lucca - sat at Upwards basically whole D1, only at the end switche dto Laplacian

How do these actions trace back to a red Lucca?

[Enchant]

You only lose when you give up.