Mini Normal 2324: Fake Fantasy Facts | Postgame

[DeltaWave]

The part that sticks with me is that this strategy would be completely suicidal for Scum!Comical.

[Hu Tao]

I'm fine with letting comical cook for a bit.

[Prince of Paterson]

The part that sticks with me is that this strategy would be completely suicidal for Scum!Comical.

Too much scotch.

[Comical]

Naerys
Upwards
lucca

Hu Tao
Gypyx
DeltaWave
Enchant

Prince of Paterson

Laplacian

I don't necessarily think it's Lap/PoP when I really think about it, too on the nose. It's Lap scum, and PoP got triggered as town here. Lap with 1 of the Purple tier is probably more likely, but I lean town on almost all 4 of the slots, but I also can tell they're fully capable of being scum here.

Top tier is pretty good. I like the way Lucca engages. If they're scum, they'll have to mess up tremendously for me to be able to see it, so like I would put Lucca in a tier in between the two top ones if I wanted to, but it's fine. I've liked the questions they've asked.

[DeltaWave]

The part that sticks with me is that this strategy would be completely suicidal for Scum!Comical.

Too much scotch.

With one scum down it's hard to think that scum would suicide bomb themselves like this. That's what I can't get over.

[Comical]

you think i fake claim protective as town and let me good buddy Naerys die with a town gambit?

Lap/PoP is really too on the nose for me. Maybe Gypyx and the team work line is fake and there to discredit me off of Lap.

Delta/Hu Tao probably sweeps this game in a scenario where Dragon did us dirty with the setup like that, but i can see Delta trying to figure out. They're playing it well if scum.

PoP white knighting Lap doesn't make too much sense. Good for them if they are, I just don't see it.

VOTE: Lap

I tried to help you fade me, PoP, but uhm...i don't think you're doing a good enough job convincing others.

[Hu Tao]

you think i fake claim protective as town and let me good buddy Naerys die with a town gambit?

Lap/PoP is really too on the nose for me. Maybe Gypyx and the team work line is fake and there to discredit me off of Lap.

Delta/Hu Tao probably sweeps this game in a scenario where Dragon did us dirty with the setup like that, but i can see Delta trying to figure out. They're playing it well if scum.

PoP white knighting Lap doesn't make too much sense. Good for them if they are, I just don't see it.

VOTE: Lap

I tried to help you fade me, PoP, but uhm...i don't think you're doing a good enough job convincing others.

You overcooked, unfortunately. Lap is town.

[DeltaWave]

I'm going to wait for Lap's rebuttal before I solidify my thoughts on this.

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: Enchant

I forgot if I'm voting already

[Comical]

These posts by Margot make a lot of sense with a Lap/Gypyx scum team.

Spoiler:

At the bottom of page 6. Will post vibes from here and keep going after a bit of a break.

Town leans:
- GammaEmerald - Liked their vote for me the most out of all of them. Feels like the work of a fairly proactive townie to gain info for reads based on responses, which I vibe with
- Laplacian - Based mostly on 119. I didn't like Hu Tao's vote for Upward at 101, for fairly similar reasons expressed there.
- Gypyx can stay for now as well.

Very slight scum lean from FuDuzn. 127 seems like their reads are grasps that don't have much weight behind them. This is only more so by the "genuine but fake" read on Gamma in 131. No post refs, just vibes. There's also alot of filler, like in 143, first half of 144, and the second half of 144, 145 and 146 feel like boosting post count more than anything well thought out or solid.

Back in halfa.

I apologise in advance for the super long psot, but I've finally put together my mid-D1 reads.

Town Lean

Gamma Emerald

The town block conversation has been playing out already, so I'm not going to bother adding to it, other than to say I think 298 does a good job of explaining why the block was made in the first place. I get so lost in RVS, and the plan to get out of RVS with a solid basis from which to make reads from others' responses to it is really intelligent.

I think 255 is town indicative, as I just don't think scum are that obvious about what they are doing and why. I also think responses to finger pointing are too reasonable to be from scum, and indicate a level of confidence in the town motivation of play up to this point.

Gypyx

Gypyx's posting is an enigma, which, given her troll avatar, I imagine and hope she would take as a compliment. I like completely remaking my reads list on players from scratch, and it's very amusing to me that I've written scum lean? and town lean? for her on separate pages. At any rate 74 and 89 look town motivated to me right now. I like the fact that she is so clearly committed to moving the game forward. 106 and 111 in particular feel like posts made by someone who is considering not just which players might be scum, but also which players are most efficient to go after from a scum hunting perspective, which looks town motivated to me. I reeeaaaally like 206 for similar reasons, and I agree a lot with 340, in that votes for GE felt opportunistic.

lucca261

My first impression with this slot was that I felt very familiar rn with the lack of self confidence in 173, which makes me think town. I also just think his reaction to my posts about FD are really sensible and reasoned and, consequently, town aligned. 362 is reasonable and well thought out in particular. I like it when people agree with me, but I love it when they only sort of agree with me, because it looks like someone who is actually trying to work this out, as opposed to jumping on other people's logic, which is ultimately a town move.

Null

Alianna

Going to wait until she is replaced to get a clearer read. Null as I do have some reads that I feel can be disregarded given that they've hbad to drop out for whatever reason, and said reason may have influenced the way they are posting.

Claptastik

Initial gameplay looks similar to town play in the past. See, for contrast, the only scum game of theirs I could find, in which they actively engage with RVS: viewtopic.php?p=13832220#p13832220. Possibly NAI, as it was their first game, but seemed worth mentioning.

I personally don't love their motivations for voting for GE. This may just be play related, but it's hard to tell as from what I've seen, this is by far and a way the most engagement they've had with a game on this site. Did a quick count, and he's played 4 games (one ongoing, but he's dead). Law of averages, you'd expect this game to account for roughly 20% of posts in total, and this game already accounts for 15%, despite our being not even halfway through day 1. I don't know that this is alignment indicative in of itself, but it definitely makes reading his meta difficult. He's definitely hunting, I'm just having trouble working out definitively whether its scum or scummy town.

DeltaWave

Difficult to read because of low post count, which is ironic given how often low post count comes up in 264. I disagree with a lot of those reads, but that's NAI right now. It would certainly be unfair of me to place them lower than Clap though, and I feel comfortable keeping them Null.

Laplacian

Limited post count makes a read difficult. The comment in 119 about Delta not responding to the RVS vote twigged me a little. If I didn't already know I was town, 228 looks like TMI. Good luck to your wife with the dance championships <3

Hu Tao

For whatever reason, probably the first few posts, I think I had very incorrectly assumed this slot was new, but I've learned better now. 313 felt like an intentional misread, though that could just be defensiveness talking. I do think a lot of their posts are very mechanical, and it's hard to get anything definitive or clear from them. Long and short of it is that they've made a lot of short posts with reads that are reasonable, but nothing that really jumps out at me as being pro-town or super engaged in town aligned scum-hunting. Closest null slot to being placed in scum leaning at present.

Naerys

Very little content. I really like 339, even though I disagree with the Gamma read, but there's not enough to be clearly alignment indicative.

Upwards

A slot that's gotten a lot of heat. I didn't find 81 abnormal at all. Clearly nervous, but I too can remember feeling nervous as town and desperately not wanting to get eliminated first day, even if that attitude is not necessarily the most helpful for town. I think there's definitely an element of defensiveness going on (rf. 121 306 356). Read on their scum hunting is basically similar to Naerys, with the added caveat that it feels mostly externally prompted. Slot to keep an eye on, but null for the moment.

Scum lean

FuDuzn

My mind hasn't really changed since the last few posts I made on this slot. Realistically, their responses to it just solidified my earlier thoughts.

Zebedee

Again, little content, but given the complete lack of hunting, or argumentation, this slot honestly feels like new scum at a loss for how to even pretend to scum hunt. Slight scum lean for now.

[Comical]

you think i fake claim protective as town and let me good buddy Naerys die with a town gambit?

Lap/PoP is really too on the nose for me. Maybe Gypyx and the team work line is fake and there to discredit me off of Lap.

Delta/Hu Tao probably sweeps this game in a scenario where Dragon did us dirty with the setup like that, but i can see Delta trying to figure out. They're playing it well if scum.

PoP white knighting Lap doesn't make too much sense. Good for them if they are, I just don't see it.

VOTE: Lap

I tried to help you fade me, PoP, but uhm...i don't think you're doing a good enough job convincing others.

You overcooked, unfortunately. Lap is town.

so you think there's 2 doctors in this game?

[Comical]

Also, setup speculation since DE70 was has past games in his sig.

His 2 games

leaned towards lots of weaker roles, with lots of use or time restrictions

. This matches maf's 1 shot jug, so I'd expect them to have 1 more PR waiting. Rolecop could make sense with the 4+ town PRs I'm assuming.

We definitely have a bodyguard or doc because of the jug.

From the two one-shot roles, this game fits the weaker roles meta. I'd guess 1 more solid role or 2 weak ones, probably including a limited investigator either way.

this does not fit with their 3-shot doc claim.

[Prince of Paterson]

The part that sticks with me is that this strategy would be completely suicidal for Scum!Comical.

Too much scotch.

With one scum down it's hard to think that scum would suicide bomb themselves like this. That's what I can't get over.

If he's scum then he went for too much of a gambit and ended up in a corner, and is just overconfident and thinks he can talk his way out of it.

If he's town then he's fakeclaiming because he does scumread Lap and is also going for too much of a gambit, and is overconfident and thinks he can talk his way out of it.

Either way, if Lap flips town, tomorrow he will say "Oops, sorry, I fakeclaimed to push out a scumread, but I'm still town and here's who we should push next:". And the worst part is that people will listen. There's not any way to tell whether he's doing that as town or as scum.

That's why we have to lim him today. If he's at E-1 and is town and still decides not to retract his claim, then that's on him. If he gets flipped and he's actually somehow a Doctor, then Lap is caught scum and we got a 1 for 1 while covering ourselves from every other possible scenario. More likely I think is that he just flips scum.

[Comical]

Lap and I could target each other the first 3 nights in the game, and we become unkillable without use of juggernaut.

with Juggernaut dead, there would be nothing else stopping that potential.

[Prince of Paterson]

you think i fake claim protective as town and let me good buddy Naerys die with a town gambit?

No, I think you're scum.

[Comical]

I can't even talk this group into limming Lap, and you think i could talk em into not limming me in that scenario.

thanks

[Comical]

you think i fake claim protective as town and let me good buddy Naerys die with a town gambit?

No, I think you're scum.

well you wrong

[Prince of Paterson]

I can't even talk this group into limming Lap, and you think i could talk em into not limming me in that scenario.

thanks

I think that you think you could.

[Prince of Paterson]

Alright, I don't think this is helpful anymore, I'm done responding for now. I've already engaged a lot more than I typically like to. My vote isn't moving.

[Comical]

i am full claiming zero retractions to my role.

i will flip Town Doctor on my flip.

PoP full of it because they're not considering Lap doing that same thing as town, except the difference is Lap has already setup their defense in "Dragon has put 2 doctors in the game before!"

whereas I have already said I'm retiring this account if I am wrong on LapScum.

I am not scum.

[Comical]

if Lap is town, I will have my vote on me the rest of the game.

I will still give my reads and analysis, and will hammer near deadline if I have to, but if I am wrong on Lap, which I really do not believe I am, that is what I offer.

Naerys will automatically live through the next day no matter what, so you'll have a conf town there too. If somehow Naerys did die, then insta fade me.

It's absolutely dumb af to play the way I did this day when Enchant was right there on the chopping block and I could have hammered from the get go.

I'd have gotten far less heat for hammering like that. I do that almost every game anyways.

[Comical]

@Delta
@Enchant
@Naerys
@Lucca
@Upwards

Please. The 6 of us are who needs to vote for Lap here. I beg you to give me this one day to earn your trust. There is not a 3-shot Doc and a Doctor in this game. Lap is already defending themselves for if I get faded today with the "oh dragon's put 2 doctors in a game before!"

[Laplacian]

@Delta
@Enchant
@Naerys
@Lucca
@Upwards

Please. The 6 of us are who needs to vote for Lap here. I beg you to give me this one day to earn your trust. There is not a 3-shot Doc and a Doctor in this game. Lap is already defending themselves for if I get faded today with the "oh dragon's put 2 doctors in a game before!"

I'm not defending myself, I'm searching for reason you

aren't

scum because I town read both of your past slots and your play makes no fucking sense as a scum gambit. But you're shooting youself in the foot there by assuming in there's two goons instead of a more powerful scum team that, again, matches dragon's past games

[Laplacian]

Also, setup speculation since DE70 was has past games in his sig.

His 2 games

leaned towards lots of weaker roles, with lots of use or time restrictions

. This matches maf's 1 shot jug, so I'd expect them to have 1 more PR waiting. Rolecop could make sense with the 4+ town PRs I'm assuming.

We definitely have a bodyguard or doc because of the jug.

From the two one-shot roles, this game fits the weaker roles meta. I'd guess 1 more solid role or 2 weak ones, probably including a limited investigator either way.

this does not fit with their 3-shot doc claim.

Because I was the protective that was listed before that ffs. You're the one with the anomalous claim

[Laplacian]

Inclined to agree with HT. Conical and I reread with updated priors, bayesian style. If this really is 1v1 and not 2 docs, we've got time to resolve it