I've caught up.
In post 1357, Klick wrote:
I'm a bit tired of thinking about DragonEater's alignment in this game in general. Because there's a lack of clarity as to his perceived and actual scum range, and I haven't a clue what a DragonEater scum game would actually look like if he drew red here. Contrast that with feeling like I know what a fire scum game would look like - very similar to a town one, and what we're seeing currently. This description encapsulates why I am uncertain here.
I feel sort of rotationally similar to this, in that I think I'm being convinced that I have a pretty murky picture of what a DragonEater scum game would look like but I think I do know what his town game would look like if he had drawn green here and it's pretty much this picture. I am remembering that fire is a player I have historically figured that I probably just can't read well at all. I feel like fire's reasons for "this could be Dragon's scum game" in
1285 are in essence compelling reasons for exactly that, that the way Dragon played around the coalition is not a reason to locktown Dragon because it can come from Dragon-scum. But "this thing people are locktowning Dragon for could come from Dragon as scum" is not strictly a reason to scumread Dragon, and it's not even necessarily an argument that that thing Dragon did isn't on net more likely to come from him as town than as scum. I feel like the wholistic read of Dragon's ISO at this point just makes it hard for me to believe that it's not his town game, and it's possible that
i
am town tunneling him but things like him calling T3 scum for taking 4 minutes to read a post and his (I agree with fire here) very uninspiring logic in
1348 are, I think, also evidence of him being town because I just don't understand what reasons he has to post those things as scum. The former just alienates T3 if T3 is town and looks really weird and attention-draw-y if they're scum together, the latter is the kind of thing that I feel is very easy to post when you have the brazenness of actually being town and very hard to decide to post when you're in this public 1v1 as scum and you're trying to play the crowd or whatever. Bad logic is probably pretty correlated with being town, in practice, because town is on average less self-critical about what they're posting.
Basically I think I haven't seen any good reason why Dragon wouldn't have made any of the posts he's made as town.
I think fire is the best lim. I ideally would like to get some life out of Appearance before day end but I know he's V/LA.