Open 902: Frienemies Blitz | Postgame

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Post Post #2400 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:34 am

Post by Alianna »

VC 4.02
Votecount 4.02


Ranger (3):
Save the Dragons, Doctor Drew, Naerys
[E-1]

T-Bone (1):
Black
Doctor Drew (1):
Ranger

Not Voting (2):
T-Bone, davesaz

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to secure an elimination.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2024-02-12 20:47:19).

Mod notes:
I townread Alianna.

Post #1000s Collected: 25
Mini Normal 2337 is full, pending launch!
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Post Post #2401 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:36 am

Post by Ranger »

In post 2392, davesaz wrote:
In post 2388, Ranger wrote:You know how the site upgrade pings people who quote your posts
I don't know this. Must have happened while I was away. I wouldn't want to use it btw, it's all I can do to keep up with pings elsewhere.
Odd, I thought it was enabled by default for all accounts when the site upgrade launched.

Looks like this.
Image
Now think of it as displaying a red (1), and usesPython being there on January 28th.

If you click anywhere on the box for a notification, it'd take you to the post in question. The top one there would take me to your .

So when usesPython quoted me, clicking on the box took me to .
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Post Post #2402 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:41 am

Post by Ranger »

In post 2393, davesaz wrote:I think you should have said this when you originally said that wagon was scum driven btw.
Now all the extra words will make those who scumread you dig in even more.
Perhaps I overestimated the critical thinking skills of town players to realize votes aren't all there is to the drive behind a wagon. It'd be my mistake for assuming they had the basic mafia knowledge to know there's more behind a wagon than just the actual votes.

I didn't include it originally because I thought the statement was a basic truth they already knew and could understand. I thought they would remember the aftermath of usesPython's "woe is me, no gob wagon possible" was to singlehandedly build a Black wagon. I thought I didn't need to do the work to remind them of key events which have been covered numerous times. If they dig in, perhaps that says more about them than it does of me.
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Post Post #2403 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:47 am

Post by Ranger »

My hero solve right now is {Black, Doctor Drew}.

I actually think Naerys may be town.
I agree there's strong reasons for T-Bone to be town.
I believe davesaz has shown himself town.

I don't think STD is scum, either.

Process of elimination, it'd be the two remaining.
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Post Post #2404 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:48 am

Post by Ranger »

{davesaz}
{T-Bone}
{Save The Dragons}
{Naerys}
{Black, Doctor Drew}

Current reads, although they're all fluid.
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Post Post #2405 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:55 am

Post by Ranger »

In post 2400, Alianna wrote:
VC 4.02
Votecount 4.02

Ranger (3):
Save the Dragons, Doctor Drew, Naerys
[E-1]

Doctor Drew (1):
Ranger
We have two days until deadline. That's plenty of time to decide an elimination.

Naerys is willing to vote Doctor Drew.
T-Bone is presumably willing to.
davesaz is open to it.
Black allegedly has interest in the idea.

Regardless of the elimination, if the Ranger elimination goes through unanimously, you would say that's bad for D5, wouldn't you? So let's force the scum to give away information they don't want to. A Ranger elimination going through without any viable alternative especially close to deadline doesn't do any good.

A Ranger elimination going through when I'm actively pushing back and there's plenty of time would be rather damning.
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Post Post #2406 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:11 am

Post by Ranger »

In post 2405, Ranger wrote:
In post 2400, Alianna wrote:
VC 4.02
Votecount 4.02

Ranger (3):
Save the Dragons, Doctor Drew, Naerys
[E-1]

Doctor Drew (1):
Ranger

The day deadline is in (expired on 2024-02-12 20:47:19).
We have two days until deadline. That's plenty of time to decide an elimination.

Naerys is willing to vote Doctor Drew.
T-Bone is presumably willing to.
davesaz is open to it.
Black allegedly has interest in the idea.

Regardless of the elimination, if the Ranger elimination goes through unanimously, you would say that's bad for D5, wouldn't you? So let's force the scum to give away information they don't want to. A Ranger elimination going through without any viable alternative especially close to deadline doesn't do any good.

A Ranger elimination going through when I'm actively pushing back and there's plenty of time would be rather damning.
Accidentally removed the deadline from the votecount, readded to illustrate the time we have available.

I realize the risk behind pushing Doctor Drew. If I'm the elimination today, there's at least a
chance
Save the Dragons would reconsider voting T-Bone. Not high enough to be something I want to bank on; still not zero.

If I'm wrong on Doctor Drew and the elimination goes through, then in effect today was lylo and we instantly lose tomorrow because there's no way STD avoids voting
both
Ranger and T-Bone in the resulting lylo.

I'm willing to take that risk or at least die trying to give the town that extra push.
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Post Post #2407 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:38 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

In post 2397, davesaz wrote:
In post 2386, Save The Dragons wrote: i am willing to move to Tbone if necessary
Being willing on someone the votes scream must be town isn't especially helpful. I'm nowhere near 100% on that read, but I'd say it's at least 75%.
Do you have specific reasons for TRing everyone else?
i see your point but like it's one + in a sea of -

i don't really have a good read of Drew tbh

my read of you is constantly up in the air too

I think black is probably town from d1

i think naerys has been pretty town all game, i don't think scum!anyone plays like naerys has all game.
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Post Post #2408 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:40 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

In post 2378, davesaz wrote: What if Ranger is town? Will we be able to catch all the scum with no mistakes?
if ranger is town i am willing to re-eval everything including my tbone rage and i won't just immediately vote tbone and scoot (so scum you can kill me if you want)
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Post Post #2409 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:42 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

In post 2391, Ranger wrote:
In post 2376, Save The Dragons wrote:game has been advanced by this game moving content
Sure has, it's rapidly advanced towards a town loss orchestrated by your inability to reconsider your read.
your borderline ATEs and "look at me i'm so town" statements haven't gone unnoticed

but it's not going to convince me of anything so i would save you breath
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Post Post #2410 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:43 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

or like

try to convince me drew or black or something if that's your solve
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Post Post #2411 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:57 am

Post by Ranger »

In post 2409, Save The Dragons wrote:your borderline ATEs and "look at me i'm so town" statements haven't gone unnoticed
but it's not going to convince me of anything so i would save you breath
Fortunately, as it's not lylo, I can get the votes without your help, or at least push you to consider why things haven't gone as they ought to have in your world view.

I don't do AtE. I snark to be sure, but my snark carries no emotions. I also have no need to display I'm town given I'll flip as such. However, as I don't believe you won't vote T-Bone, I'd prefer to try and not have the game lost today/tomorrow.

You are already ignoring all the evidence for me being town. You are failing to look at my plays from my viewpoint. You are looking for reasons to scumread me and viewing my actions as those of scum so writing into them motivations for them which don't exist, because you are not being objective.
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Post Post #2412 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:58 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

k
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Post Post #2413 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:12 am

Post by Ranger »

In post 2410, Save The Dragons wrote:try to convince me drew or black or something if that's your solve
My solve is based on PoE.

I'm town.

I believe davesaz's efforts have consistently shown himself to be town. I maintain davesaz's actions at the end of D1 were town-indicative. davesaz saw what he believed to be masons, then when he saw Dannflor was a mason, he hammered. He was handling things as well as any town player could. He's stepped up efforts including going through the votes today and has been putting in the effort. Naerys previously mentioned davesaz as town is more proactive, yet that proactivity is present now. Particularly given I'm at L-1 and davesaz as scum has a free ride to lylo and could have guiltlessly hammered me, I feel he has overwhelming reasons to be town.

I strongly believe T-Bone to be town. T-Bone has had the exact same mindset as me for the majority of the game. He and I have come from the same perspective and same approach and while our actions and conclusions may differ slightly, I vehemently believe his viewpoint matches mine because he shares my alignment. He is looking at things in much the same light as me, in a way I feel indicates he's solving as town who knows he's at a disadvantage.

If you are town as I believe you are, that limits the scum to three names.

Of them, I currently believe Naerys is the most town. I can see my gripes with Naerys as playstyle-based, and underneath, Naerys has shown signs she genuinely believes her reads and pushes to be town. I shouldn't need to convince you of Naerys being town because you're the one critical of me for having scumread her, and it is in part you having given the viewpoint Naerys is town which pushed her into the most likely town for me.

The remaining are Black and Doctor Drew.
Black's strongest reason for being town is being a wagon on D1 pushed by usesPython, yet that doesn't clear her by any extent. I find my reasons for townreading other slots far more compelling, especially as from my perspective, it's impossible for the usesPython wagon to not have scum on it.
In post 1153, DragonEater70 wrote:
Black (2):
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Dannflor (2):
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light_ganski

davesaz (1):
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light_ganski (1):
JacksonVirgo
Unless the scumteam were precisely {T-Bone, Doctor Drew}, the usesPython wagon
must
have scum on it, and that puts Black in the same category as {Black, davesaz, Naerys}. Of them, Black is by far the least town. So I believe it's far more likely the Black-usesPython interaction was an orchestrated bus rather than scum losing out on D1.

This in particular because I had called usesPython a mason, and usesPython was online after. usesPython had the opportunity to confirm my claim and get players to potentially unvote. They deliberately chose not to. This indicates they preferred to go down over the alternative.

Doctor Drew has shown none of his signature fire this game. He's been lackluster the entire game. While Doctor Drew has been lazy as town before, in this extreme it is suspect. He has nothing town to his name, and though that doesn't condemn him, the PoE in tandem does.
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Post Post #2414 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:12 am

Post by Ranger »

In post 2413, Ranger wrote:
In post 2410, Save The Dragons wrote:try to convince me drew or black or something if that's your solve
My solve is based on PoE.

I'm town.

I believe davesaz's efforts have consistently shown himself to be town. I maintain davesaz's actions at the end of D1 were town-indicative. davesaz saw what he believed to be masons, then when he saw Dannflor was a mason, he hammered. He was handling things as well as any town player could. He's stepped up efforts including going through the votes today and has been putting in the effort. Naerys previously mentioned davesaz as town is more proactive, yet that proactivity is present now. Particularly given I'm at L-1 and davesaz as scum has a free ride to lylo and could have guiltlessly hammered me, I feel he has overwhelming reasons to be town.

I strongly believe T-Bone to be town. T-Bone has had the exact same mindset as me for the majority of the game. He and I have come from the same perspective and same approach and while our actions and conclusions may differ slightly, I vehemently believe his viewpoint matches mine because he shares my alignment. He is looking at things in much the same light as me, in a way I feel indicates he's solving as town who knows he's at a disadvantage.

If you are town as I believe you are, that limits the scum to three names.

Of them, I currently believe Naerys is the most town. I can see my gripes with Naerys as playstyle-based, and underneath, Naerys has shown signs she genuinely believes her reads and pushes to be town. I shouldn't need to convince you of Naerys being town because you're the one critical of me for having scumread her, and it is in part you having given the viewpoint Naerys is town which pushed her into the most likely town for me.

The remaining are Black and Doctor Drew.
Black's strongest reason for being town is being a wagon on D1 pushed by usesPython, yet that doesn't clear her by any extent. I find my reasons for townreading other slots far more compelling, especially as from my perspective, it's impossible for the usesPython wagon to not have scum on it.
In post 1153, DragonEater70 wrote:
Black (2):
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Ranger

Dannflor (2):
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light_ganski

davesaz (1):
T-Bone
light_ganski (1):
JacksonVirgo
Unless the scumteam were precisely {T-Bone, Doctor Drew}, the usesPython wagon
must
have scum on it, and that puts Black in the same category as {Black, davesaz, Naerys}. Of them, Black is by far the least town. So I believe it's far more likely the Black-usesPython interaction was an orchestrated bus rather than scum losing out on D1.

This in particular because I had called usesPython a mason, and usesPython was online after. usesPython had the opportunity to confirm my claim and get players to potentially unvote. They deliberately chose not to. This indicates they preferred to go down over the alternative.

Doctor Drew has shown none of his signature fire this game. He's been lackluster the entire game. While Doctor Drew has been lazy as town before, in this extreme it is suspect. He has nothing town to his name, and though that doesn't condemn him, the PoE in tandem does.
Fix'd.
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Post Post #2415 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:26 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

i mean i can't argue that drew has about as much bite to him as a pool noodle this game
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Post Post #2416 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:27 am

Post by Ranger »

In post 1153, DragonEater70 wrote:
usesPython (7):
gob
, Naerys,
Dannflor, humaneatingmonkey
, Black, Save The Dragons, davesaz
[HAMMER]

Black (2):
usesPython
,
Ranger

Dannflor (2):
Doctor Drew,
light_ganski

davesaz (1):
T-Bone
light_ganski (1):
JacksonVirgo
[/area]
I feel that point bears reillustration.

Unless the scumteam is precisely {Doctor Drew, T-Bone}, there
must
be scum on the usesPython wagon.

{Naerys, Black, Save the Dragons, davesaz} are the possibilities.

usesPython . They were deliberately not posting. To me, this indicates the final two votes were not scum hopping on ({STD, davesaz}), and the scum would be in {Naerys, Black}.

As a reminder, . usesPython never popped in after , despite being online. They were online after my claim and never posted. To me, this says they didn't want to try and save themself.

I believe this not only implies the scum were in {Naerys, Black} and the prime alternative wagon (Black) wasn't desirable.
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Post Post #2417 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:28 am

Post by Ranger »

In post 2415, Save The Dragons wrote:i mean i can't argue that drew has about as much bite to him as a pool noodle this game
Which alignment does this typically indicate more likely for him?
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Post Post #2418 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:37 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2400, Alianna wrote:
VC 4.02
Votecount 4.02


Ranger (3):
Save the Dragons, Doctor Drew, Naerys
[E-1]

T-Bone (1):
Black
Doctor Drew (1):
Ranger

Not Voting (2):
T-Bone, davesaz

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to secure an elimination.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2024-02-12 20:47:19).

Mod notes:
I think Naerys and T-Bone are town with me. That leaves 2 scum in Drew, STD, Ranger, Black. I think Black is the least likely of these 4 based on that wagon that Python pushed.

STD and Ranger together would be major theater but possible. The play could be that STD's tunnel comes across as a hero move on a Ranger scumflip, and then play on Naerys being suspicious of me coupled with my waffling stance on Ranger. Not sure where STD would go for a 2nd mislim after that. I don't feel like this is a likely scum strategy being ahead like this. It could be that it's straight up distancing and they never expected it to catch on, and STD's really in a corner where backing off isn't possible.

Drew and Ranger seems much less likely as a pairing. STD as town could be pushing scum ranger, and Drew might figure if he's gonna bus it should be early. I don't see why this pairing would think that bussing is necessary. Drew is set up to be able to claim he has a scumread on almost anyone, and despite the wagon hitting 3 so quickly I would guess that's actually unexpected from a team containing Ranger.

Ranger and Black as a pair would mean it's an all town wagon and they're trying for a Black endgame. It's too late to bus, probably wouldn't get any credit. The analysis of the Black wagon d1 would mean that Python tried to get credit for a Black lim by @ing their other partner and a bunch of town and it didn't go through.

If Ranger is town and STD is just tunneled town, a Drew and Black pairing looks pretty good here. Drew jumped on the possible mislim hoping that the others who were already suspicious of Ranger would go along with a blitz lim. Black stayed off to give a classic on and off split, and looks town given Ranger is pushing hard to clear her and I'm going along with that.

STD and Drew would be 1-2 on a mislim but STD would have a get out of jail free card from the tunnel. This would be a play to have STD endgame.

I haven't covered all the combos yet but this is getting long so better cut it off and see what responses it generates.
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Post Post #2419 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:44 am

Post by davesaz »

Actually having gotten to the end of that, not so sure of the Python-led wagon on Black meaning she's town. Black+Drew looks like the highest probability pairing for the current game state by a mile.
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Post Post #2420 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:48 am

Post by davesaz »

Unless it's just Ranger and whomever. That's a compliment, that being able to logic your way through all of this seems like it's possible. I'd never be able to write that much convincingly.
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Post Post #2421 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:53 am

Post by T-Bone »

In post 2405, Ranger wrote: Naerys is willing to vote Doctor Drew.
T-Bone is presumably willing to.
davesaz is open to it.
Black allegedly has interest in the idea.
That's the entire remaining playerlist if you read STD as town.
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Post Post #2422 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:54 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

In post 2416, Ranger wrote:
In post 1153, DragonEater70 wrote:
usesPython (7):
gob
, Naerys,
Dannflor, humaneatingmonkey
, Black, Save The Dragons, davesaz
[HAMMER]

Black (2):
usesPython
,
Ranger

Dannflor (2):
Doctor Drew,
light_ganski

davesaz (1):
T-Bone
light_ganski (1):
JacksonVirgo
[/area]
I feel that point bears reillustration.

Unless the scumteam is precisely {Doctor Drew, T-Bone}, there
must
be scum on the usesPython wagon.

{Naerys, Black, Save the Dragons, davesaz} are the possibilities.

usesPython . They were deliberately not posting. To me, this indicates the final two votes were not scum hopping on ({STD, davesaz}), and the scum would be in {Naerys, Black}.

As a reminder, . usesPython never popped in after , despite being online. They were online after my claim and never posted. To me, this says they didn't want to try and save themself.

I believe this not only implies the scum were in {Naerys, Black} and the prime alternative wagon (Black) wasn't desirable.
unless ur scum so like

bye bye argument
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Post Post #2423 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:55 am

Post by Doctor Drew »

In post 2417, Ranger wrote:
In post 2415, Save The Dragons wrote:i mean i can't argue that drew has about as much bite to him as a pool noodle this game
Which alignment does this typically indicate more likely for him?
Well my last scum game, coincidentally scum with std, I think you would see I had a lot more bite there.

Also a lot more bite in Boons Ahoy.

Sorry, haven't been free all day(real life day I mean lol)
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Post Post #2424 (ISO) » Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:56 am

Post by T-Bone »

I guess contrast that with literally every other vote where we aren't so willing to form a majority.
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