Mini Normal 2327: Bird Species (Game Over)

[Hu Tao]

[SmileyDude1]

[ post] number [ /post]

Without the spaces

This.

Kind of want to leave the thread and wallow in despair rn, but I keep pushing

[SmileyDude1]

Ok, So I took another look at T3's case on Cakez, as well as Cakez ISO. I didn't find anything wrong with their StD interaction earlier and I think I agree with Cakez 608 in that I think T3's logic was a stretch in that scenario. I think the best point T3 makes against Cakez is their 586. I can see his point about Cakez potentially trying to hide behind Black's vote there. Will admittedly say I was pinged a bit by Cakez electing to not respond to that point, though thinking about it more i'm not confident in that point even being AI in the first place.

It feels fairly normal to me to not want to repeat a case if your voting for someone for reasons that are similar to what another player has already said. The most suspicious part would be Cakez publicly agreeing with another player as a justification to vote (could be used as a way to shift blame onto someone else), but I feel less worried about this for two reasons.

A.: I think this type of mind meld in terms of logic is fairly common and tends to often happen whether spoken or unspoken in games regardless of alignment. I don't really see how it's anymore AI of Cakez to publicly agree with Black's case then it would be if he just repeated her reasoning and voted there without invoking her. It feels generally NAI

B.: I didn't really notice any patterns of Cakez hiding behind other players reads anywhere else when looking throughout their ISO. I would actually say they've been somewhat aggressive in pushing reads that were not consensus such as the StD interaction earlier and their 408 in regards to NotScum, doesn't jive with the idea of scum who's plan is to hide behind someone else's reads

[SmileyDude1]

Don't think I want Cakez today.

VOTE: T3

I think we launch this and call it a day (My apologies to you T3 if i'm wrong).

Less than 9 hours to go, we got to make a decision here.

[Snow2697]

I have considered whether I should change my no-elim position now that there are more moves and data and I have formed a view on which players look scummy.
To put it other way, if I see someone scummy, why don't I vote for his/her elimination.
I have 4 issues here.
1 - Cakez and T3 look scummy to me based on my interpretation of their moves. But if Black is scum, then Cakez and T3 should be credited, not criticized for their votes. Black can be scum and town in my set-up.
2 - If Black is indeed town, a good candidate would be Aristeia. But again, if Black is scum, Aristeia looks very townish for pushing a scum.
3 - I don't like to make a D1 vote where so much depends on the status of one particular player.
4 - another approach can be to vote for a passive player. But I do not think that such a harsh step is required at D1 and that voting for a lurk would give a lot of data.
So, I would keep my no-elim vote unchanged.

[SmileyDude1]

Mass Ping. just want to clarify if you guys are going to be available before deadline here (less than 8 hours from now). If not to discuss any further, at least to hammer if necessary.

Of course, don't sweat it if you don't have time and my apologies if this ping is of any inconvenience.

(I excluded Ari from this ping btw, since they already said they'll be back before deadline in there 660)

[Aristeia]

I have considered whether I should change my no-elim position now that there are more moves and data and I have formed a view on which players look scummy.
To put it other way, if I see someone scummy, why don't I vote for his/her elimination.
I have 4 issues here.
1 - Cakez and T3 look scummy to me based on my interpretation of their moves. But if Black is scum, then Cakez and T3 should be credited, not criticized for their votes. Black can be scum and town in my set-up.
2 - If Black is indeed town, a good candidate would be Aristeia. But again, if Black is scum, Aristeia looks very townish for pushing a scum.
3 - I don't like to make a D1 vote where so much depends on the status of one particular player.
4 - another approach can be to vote for a passive player. But I do not think that such a harsh step is required at D1 and that voting for a lurk would give a lot of data.
So, I would keep my no-elim vote unchanged.

waiting for the mafia to kill us all is a game losing strat

you need to vote to kill mafia to win

if you do not vote you cannot win

[Naerys]

i am about to go to sleep

[Snow2697]

waiting for the mafia to kill us all is a game losing strat

you need to vote to kill mafia to win

if you do not vote you cannot win

It's my approach for this D1 voting. I don't think that town will loose if no-one is limmed today.

[Snow2697]

Will be back in some 6 hrs.

[SmileyDude1]

i am about to go to sleep

if you're still up, can I ask you vote one of T3 or SirCakez before you do so. Don't think there's time for anything else today

[Aristeia]

ill vote whichever one out of T3/SirCakez gets to 6 votes first

i dont think either of them will flip mafia

[Aristeia]

the reason I don't think either of them flip mafia is that this just doesnt feel like a game state where mafia are in danger of being eliminated because I don't think anyone cares who actually gets eliminated today

[Aristeia]

I guess I could just refuse to vote and settle for no lim. that's not that bad since people want to try it

[Naerys]

VOTE: t3
good night

[Aristeia]

VOTE: no lim

[Aristeia]

VOTECOUNT 1.8

T3 (5)

- SmileyDude1, Black, SirCakez, Hu Tao, Random Nurse, Naerys

SirCakez (4)

- Save the Dragons, T3, Hu Tao, Gob

Naerys (1)

shaddowez

No Elimination (2)

- Snow2697, Aristeia

Not Voting (1)

- NotAScum

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2024-02-26 01:12:53).

I think this is where we are currently at

[SmileyDude1]

the reason I don't think either of them flip mafia is that this just doesnt feel like a game state where mafia are in danger of being eliminated because I don't think anyone cares who actually gets eliminated today

I think I see your point, but I disagree with your conclusion.

I think I see what you mean in the sense that I do see some sentiment of hedging in terms of who people want to eliminate (HT's 629 comes to mind for me as an example off the top of my head, probs could find similar sentiment elsewhere in this thread) which gives the impression that people don't care which person is eliminated indicating scum not being worried).

I'd be more inclined to agree with this though if there was minimal to no resistance to the wagons that occurred today. I don't think that is the case though. Look through most of the major wagons today and you can find someone who dissented against them. Black (myself for a while, Hu Tao), NotScum (SirCakez) T3 (StD, Gob) and SirCakez (you,me) all had resistance posed at some point while their wagons were ongoing and I do think that indicates that people care who the elimination here is to me.

[Aristeia]

i'm fine with flipping T3 and seeing where things go

i am just naturally pessimistic I guess

[Aristeia]

I'd be more inclined to agree with this though if there was minimal to no resistance to the wagons that occurred today. I don't think that is the case though. Look through most of the major wagons today and you can find someone who dissented against them. Black (myself for a while, Hu Tao), NotScum (SirCakez) T3 (StD, Gob) and SirCakez (you,me) all had resistance posed at some point while their wagons were ongoing and I do think that indicates that people care who the elimination here is to me.

I can see resistance being mafia who are trying to look good for the next day,

what I'm missing is people advocating for one lim over another. everyone is kind of in a mood where it seems they don't really care what's going on

[T3]

Usually resistance to a wagon like mine is more likely to come from Mafia tbh

It’s felt kind of inevitable for a few days that I’d be limmed

[SmileyDude1]

I'd be more inclined to agree with this though if there was minimal to no resistance to the wagons that occurred today. I don't think that is the case though. Look through most of the major wagons today and you can find someone who dissented against them. Black (myself for a while, Hu Tao), NotScum (SirCakez) T3 (StD, Gob) and SirCakez (you,me) all had resistance posed at some point while their wagons were ongoing and I do think that indicates that people care who the elimination here is to me.

I can see resistance being mafia who are trying to look good for the next day,

what I'm missing is people advocating for one lim over another. everyone is kind of in a mood where it seems they don't really care what's going on

I would take stuff like 626, my revote of T3 earlier to fit this criteria ( I also kind of interpret Cakez 653 that way as well though that one is a stretch).

Would agree with you that it feels lacking though

[Aristeia]

I mean like people just plugged in their votes and left

nobody is here openly advocating or asking for votes for their preferred candidate

[Aristeia]

like 626 is one post from yesterday ~24 hours ago, he's posted nothing since.

is STD really that interested in getting Cakez eliminated? who is he trying to get to vote for Cakez?

its just a feeling that nobody really cares about who gets flipped today

[Aristeia]

maybe I'm the problem and I just care too much