Mini Normal 2327: Bird Species (Game Over)

[SmileyDude1]

Okay i think the team is snow and black + someone else.

Anyway there is no reason to lim Snow here today. Lets get Black.

Okay i think the team is snow and black + someone else.

Anyway there is no reason to lim Snow here today. Lets get Black.

This is a fake thought. From your pov you should consider Snow confscum. It doesn't make sense to fade me today. You just want to get rid of me because Snow is a one-shot

There is no snese in limming a conf-scum. You keep them around as long as possible so they spew people.

This is also why you dont want to let mafia bus their partner

How confident would you say you are in Black flipping scum right now and why, cause imo it doesn't make sense to vote her over Snow from Town!you's perspective unless you are certain that she flips scum as well (I think I disagree with the idea presented in 825 to begin with, though it's transparently not worth imo if there's any chance of a mislim or unecessary claim).

It actually does make sense to vote her over snow even if its not 100% but whatever. I know what you are trying to ask. Yes i think Black flips scum for sure.

Honestly I don't really care if you think I'm scummy. We have guaranteed scum within gob/snow and I'm excited about that prospect

or could it be that they're both town? Notice gob hasn't actually claimed he's vig, it's implied. But he could've another town power role and just doesn't want to give it away. This'd also explain why he doesn't want to lim Snow. And this'd also explain why you'd be so excited to kill either of them

My hero…

Wait ???

This implies agreeance with NotScum's 867. If you're trying to say this is what happened, then why did you scumread Snow in your 822 after he counterclaimed the vig shot?

Because I am the vigilante and shot SirCakez, but he is claiming to have done that.

I'm skeptical of the idea that your so confident in Scum!Black that you'd rather launch her than someone who's directly CCing you, but I feel like we're currently at an impasse in regards to that so i'll leave it alone for now.

Can you go over why you elected to shoot Cakez?

[gob]

Okay i think the team is snow and black + someone else.

Anyway there is no reason to lim Snow here today. Lets get Black.

Okay i think the team is snow and black + someone else.

Anyway there is no reason to lim Snow here today. Lets get Black.

This is a fake thought. From your pov you should consider Snow confscum. It doesn't make sense to fade me today. You just want to get rid of me because Snow is a one-shot

There is no snese in limming a conf-scum. You keep them around as long as possible so they spew people.

This is also why you dont want to let mafia bus their partner

How confident would you say you are in Black flipping scum right now and why, cause imo it doesn't make sense to vote her over Snow from Town!you's perspective unless you are certain that she flips scum as well (I think I disagree with the idea presented in 825 to begin with, though it's transparently not worth imo if there's any chance of a mislim or unecessary claim).

It actually does make sense to vote her over snow even if its not 100% but whatever. I know what you are trying to ask. Yes i think Black flips scum for sure.

Honestly I don't really care if you think I'm scummy. We have guaranteed scum within gob/snow and I'm excited about that prospect

or could it be that they're both town? Notice gob hasn't actually claimed he's vig, it's implied. But he could've another town power role and just doesn't want to give it away. This'd also explain why he doesn't want to lim Snow. And this'd also explain why you'd be so excited to kill either of them

My hero…

Wait ???

This implies agreeance with NotScum's 867. If you're trying to say this is what happened, then why did you scumread Snow in your 822 after he counterclaimed the vig shot?

Because I am the vigilante and shot SirCakez, but he is claiming to have done that.

I'm skeptical of the idea that your so confident in Scum!Black that you'd rather launch her than someone who's directly CCing you, but I feel like we're currently at an impasse in regards to that so i'll leave it alone for now.

Can you go over why you elected to shoot Cakez?

Yea, i didnt like how cakez' jumped off Black for T3 so easily. It just felt like he was trying to get the lim out of the way. It was wrong though so whatever.

Anyway its not so much that i am attacking Balck over Snow, its just that i dont think there is anything to be gained by trying to lim Snow here/.

[Save The Dragons]

What if there are two vigs who both shot cakez

[gob]

What if there are two vigs who both shot cakez

HOLY

[Hu Tao]

What if there are two vigs who both shot cakez

Galaxy brain

[SmileyDude1]

What if there are two vigs who both shot cakez

Had a similar thought earlier today.

It's not impossible for that to have occurred (AFAIK duplicate roles in regular normal games are fine), though I do find it highly unlikely. I feel like double vig in a mini is somewhat rare, and I think in the cases where that does occur it's usually like one odd one even where they can't both shoot within the same night. Then add the odds both shoot into the same person and it very much goes into "have to see it to believe it" category for me

[Snow2697]

What if there are two vigs who both shot cakez

Had a similar thought earlier today.

It's not impossible for that to have occurred (AFAIK duplicate roles in regular normal games are fine), though I do find it highly unlikely. I feel like double vig in a mini is somewhat rare, and I think in the cases where that does occur it's usually like one odd one even where they can't both shoot within the same night. Then add the odds both shoot into the same person and it very much goes into "have to see it to believe it" category for me

UNVOTE:
Interesting. IMO Cakez was an obvious vig target, so a double vig shot would be very possible. Cakez looked scummy, was target of the 2nd D1 train and would be a D2 candidate anyway.
What troubles me is why would a scum claim a vig role to provoke a CC. Or this can be scum Gob's play? I also did not quite like Black from the D2 exchange.
Will need to think it over. What do others think?

[Naerys]

Gob spent day 1 hard pushing Black and then somehow vigs Cakez? I dont see much logic there

[Random Nurse]

Interesting.

What's your thoughts on this?

PEDIT: lol on the mind meld

I wasn't expecting two kills.

Also, I admit I haven't been that active—working back to back 16-hour shifts.

If I read the latest page correctly there's a claim/CC on the vig shot?

[Naerys]

Yes, nurse

[Random Nurse]

What if there are two vigs who both shot cakez

I don't like this line of thought.

I don't see how there'd be two Vigs in a 13-player game. Doesn't fit.

[Snow2697]

Gob spent day 1 hard pushing Black and then somehow vigs Cakez? I dont see much logic there

There can be some logic.
The set up favours vigging Cakez. There was an initial train on Black, but Cakez and T3 trains happened simultaneously, so Cakez status would be more helpful, and Cakez could be under fire on D2 anyway.
Further, if Gob is vig, I would treat his D1 push on Black more like a fear vote. You can explain a D1 fear vote, but a N1 fear vig kill looks more problematic.

[Snow2697]

What if there are two vigs who both shot cakez

I don't like this line of thought.

I don't see how there'd be two Vigs in a 13-player game. Doesn't fit.

Can it be that town has 2 vigs at the expense of lifting another power role?

[Random Nurse]

What if there are two vigs who both shot cakez

I don't like this line of thought.

I don't see how there'd be two Vigs in a 13-player game. Doesn't fit.

Can it be that town has 2 vigs at the expense of lifting another power role?

I highly, highly doubt it, because now you're talking three potential kills in one night.

No, I don't see that as a possibility one bit, and I do challenge Scum to offer me their heads if they disagree.

[SmileyDude1]

What if there are two vigs who both shot cakez

I don't like this line of thought.

I don't see how there'd be two Vigs in a 13-player game. Doesn't fit.

Can it be that town has 2 vigs at the expense of lifting another power role?

In theory yes, in practice the big problem is both of you are claiming to have shot Cakez here. Skimmed through a good chunk of the mini archives (up through post 7) and while I did see double vig on occasion, in every instance they were gated so that they couldn't both shoot on the same night (and this was looking through a time where what was considered "normal" was less strict than what it is now).

viewtopic.php?t=29549
This is the link, would need to finish skimming later to be sure (have to leave for work in a second), but atm both of you being town vigs that shot the same night seems like it'd be unprecedented. It seems more likely that one of you/gob is just scum here imo

[Black]

What if there are two vigs who both shot cakez

Had a similar thought earlier today.

It's not impossible for that to have occurred (AFAIK duplicate roles in regular normal games are fine), though I do find it highly unlikely. I feel like double vig in a mini is somewhat rare, and I think in the cases where that does occur it's usually like one odd one even where they can't both shoot within the same night. Then add the odds both shoot into the same person and it very much goes into "have to see it to believe it" category for me

UNVOTE:
Interesting. IMO Cakez was an obvious vig target, so a double vig shot would be very possible. Cakez looked scummy, was target of the 2nd D1 train and would be a D2 candidate anyway.
What troubles me is why would a scum claim a vig role to provoke a CC. Or this can be scum Gob's play? I also did not quite like Black from the D2 exchange.
Will need to think it over. What do others think?

A double vig shot is possible but highly unlikely. It is extremely likely that one of you is lying

[NotAScum]

I seriously doubt there's two vigs in a game of 13. Not saying it's impossible, but the chance is astronomically small. I'm more inclined to believe snow here, mafia are more likely to fake claim first than to counter claim to the real role. But one thing in that case is, other than by guessing, how did gob figure out the vig killed cakez?

[Black]

I seriously doubt there's two vigs in a game of 13. Not saying it's impossible, but the chance is astronomically small. I'm more inclined to believe snow here, mafia are more likely to fake claim first than to counter claim to the real role. But one thing in that case is, other than by guessing, how did gob figure out the vig killed cakez?

If gob is scum then he knows the scum team killed Ari

[NotAScum]

SmileyDude1, what do you think of Black? Do you think she's honest in her assessments or have some ulterior motive like I suspect?

[Black]

SmileyDude1, what do you think of Black? Do you think she's honest in her assessments or have some ulterior motive like I suspect?

Do you think I'm scum with gob?

[Snow2697]

In theory yes, in practice the big problem is both of you are claiming to have shot Cakez here. Skimmed through a good chunk of the mini archives (up through post 7) and while I did see double vig on occasion, in every instance they were gated so that they couldn't both shoot on the same night (and this was looking through a time where what was considered "normal" was less strict than what it is now).

viewtopic.php?t=29549
This is the link, would need to finish skimming later to be sure (have to leave for work in a second), but atm both of you being town vigs that shot the same night seems like it'd be unprecedented. It seems more likely that one of you/gob is just scum here imo

9 theoretical options and my takes on them.

1. We both are vigs killing on N1. Very unlikely.
2. Gob is townie who has decided to cover a real vig. I am a real vig. Would not exclude this.
3. Gob is vig and I am townie who has decided to cover him. N/A.
4. Gob is vig and I am scum. N/A.
5. Gob is townie covering a real vig and I am scum. A real vig or a 2nd killer is in the game. N/A.
6. Gob is scum and I am vig. May be.
7. Gob is scum and I am covering a real vig. A real vig or a 2nd killer is in the game. N/A.
8. We both are scums. A real vig or a 2nd killer is in the game. N/A.
9. Gob is townie on fishing expedition (which leaves me as a real vig/real vig cover/scum). Don't know Gob enough, but sounds a bit eccentric.

Any other options?

I have quickly gone through the link with previous games. If there is a Vig and a scum is killed (presumably by the Vig), then town win/loss ratio is roughly 29/17 games. My biggest issue with scum Gob was his false claim rationale. It can be that after 2 town kills on N1 scums have made a decision to disable a Vig. Though the above town win/loss ratio does not seem to be that big to require a false claim.

My next problem is that, if I take it right, Gob is not playing against me after my CC, but rather attacks Black. And Black wants to lim Gob.

[Snow2697]

I seriously doubt there's two vigs in a game of 13. Not saying it's impossible, but the chance is astronomically small. I'm more inclined to believe snow here, mafia are more likely to fake claim first than to counter claim to the real role. But one thing in that case is, other than by guessing, how did gob figure out the vig killed cakez?

If gob is scum then he knows the scum team killed Ari

I do not understand why a vig would kill Ari.

[NotAScum]

Do you think I'm scum with gob?

it's not out of the question. Voting gob doesn't exclude such possibility

[Snow2697]

I seriously doubt there's two vigs in a game of 13. Not saying it's impossible, but the chance is astronomically small. I'm more inclined to believe snow here, mafia are more likely to fake claim first than to counter claim to the real role. But one thing in that case is, other than by guessing, how did gob figure out the vig killed cakez?

If gob is scum then he knows the scum team killed Ari

I do not understand why a vig would kill Ari.

And equally why scums would kill town T3 who already got trained on D1.

[Black]

I seriously doubt there's two vigs in a game of 13. Not saying it's impossible, but the chance is astronomically small. I'm more inclined to believe snow here, mafia are more likely to fake claim first than to counter claim to the real role. But one thing in that case is, other than by guessing, how did gob figure out the vig killed cakez?

If gob is scum then he knows the scum team killed Ari

I do not understand why a vig would kill Ari.

I seriously doubt there's two vigs in a game of 13. Not saying it's impossible, but the chance is astronomically small. I'm more inclined to believe snow here, mafia are more likely to fake claim first than to counter claim to the real role. But one thing in that case is, other than by guessing, how did gob figure out the vig killed cakez?

If gob is scum then he knows the scum team killed Ari

I do not understand why a vig would kill Ari.

And equally why scums would kill town T3 who already got trained on D1.

The Vig didn't kill Ari. Scum did. Also scum didn't kill T3 because he was already dead. 'm not sure what you're trying to say here?