Mini Normal 2327: Bird Species (Game Over)

[Black]

Also what was the benefit of gob claiming right now. Did he think his partner would get heat today or something?

If he's scum then he wanted to out the Vig. He started pushing me when he realized the Vig was one-shot

Which post made him realize the Vig was one-shot?

Snow claimed 1-shot

Snow never claimed 1-shot

Oh true. He could be an odd-night Vig

[Black]

Snow to be clear you should NOT reveal that

[gob]

Why did you assume that Black?

[shaddowez]

sus people:
gob
NotAScum
RN
StD

Town:
Smiley
Snow

Hu,Black,shaddowez are null

Why StD in the sus pool?

[Black]

Why did you assume that Black?

I wasn't thinking about other gated Vig roles

[Black]

sus people:
gob
NotAScum
RN
StD

Town:
Smiley
Snow

Hu,Black,shaddowez are null

Why StD in the sus pool?

Do you townread StD?

[SmileyDude1]

So i've been thinking about the ramifacations of the conflicting vig claims from differing perspectives all day today while at work and this is what i've got.

If Snow is Scum

: Then that would mean that Scum!Snow decided to counterclaim Gob after they had already claimed vig. This doesn't make sense to me for multiple reasons. Even moving past the concept of scum counterclaiming a vig that claimed the shot already being, to put it kindly, kind of stupid in most scenarios, it doesn't make sense for Snow to be the one to claim this given they were widely townread by most of the list going into this phase. It'd be cutting the longevity of the slot for not much apparent award. I think the only reality where this is feasible to me would be one where Scum!Snow believed that a confirmed Gob would push one of their partners out if left unchecked, which would implicate Black in this scenario due to Gob mainly angling for her (I think Scum!Snow requires Scum!Black because otherwise I feel like Scum!Snow doesn't counterclaim the vig in this spot. Like if Scum!Snow + Town!Black you probs just let Gob push her).

Conclusion: Not very Feasible (would require Black flipping red first for me to consider it

If Snow is Town

: Thinking about some of the posts from earlier today, (Thought this was talked about more but I only see Snow's 920 and 927 that bring this up) I partially retract my stance in my 914. I think there's a reality where both Snow and Gob could be town (though i;ll get into that more in the Gob is Town hypothetical). Regardless based on the Snow is town section, it should be clear that I feel in general that this ismore likely to be true.

Conclusion: Likely

If Gob is Scum

: Then they elected to claim the vig shot in order to get the real vig to out themselves, maybe not the best play in terms of expected value but on that at least makes sense to do in a vacuum depending on your team's relative position. This also feels further supported by the fact that Gob did something similar in Mini Normal 2326 that just ended (Was keeping light tabs on it) and might've decided to try a similar play here.

Conclusion: Feasible

If Gob is Town

: Then I think he's lying about being a vig. In the aforementioned 920 and 927 Snow brought up the idea of Gob being town that's covering for the real vig, and after thinking about it more, I think the way gob approached this actually makes a lot of sense if you look at it from this perspective. If Gob fakeclaimed vig to provide the real vig cover only to be CCed then it makes a lot more sense why he doesn't wish to vote his CC over Black. Also looking at it from a Town!Gob's perspective it does make sense to me why he may have decided to intensify his push on Black here. In a world where Gob knows that him/Snow is TvT it makes sense to become suspicious of people who are trying to lock the game in a 1 for 1 (scum have high incentive to do that when they know it doesn't involve any of the scum team). Given that, it feels reasonable for Gob to push Black for pushing the 1v1 (Though I wonder why I didn't catch more flack for pushing the 1v1 earlier if that was the case. If we look at it from the context of he's actually the vig then I still don't think his actions here make much sense. This feels more complicated then the reality where he's just scum, though I do think it's possible.

Conclusion: Feasible

(Also I realize that me bringing up the Gob is covering for Snow as real vig idea undermines the concept of the idea if that is in fact what is occuring here, but sorry, it's tantamount to my current thoughts on the Gob slot and i'm not going to compromise my actual thoughts by making something up in service of hiding it (especially when i'm not even sure that this is what's occurring in this instance)).

Continuing off my Gob is town hypothetical, I think Black does feel scummy in the world where Gob was trying to cover for Snow vig, as in a world where that is TT i'd expect scum to push it in order to near-guarantee a mislim and I feel Black was probs the player most aggressively pushing the 1v1 early (stuff like 807, and 866 come to mind). Though I think it also feels like the natural way to approach a counterclaim in that situation (I was in the same camp for a while after all) so it could just be NAI for her regardless of what Gobs alignment is.


Looking at pairs within the three I just mentioned, I already mentioned the Snow/Black connection from earlier. I'm not really seeing the Black/Gob pair that some others see right now. Atm I feel that the conflict between the slots feels too longstanding and persistent to be distancing. Might need to take a deeper look at some point to see if my thoughts change there. Snow+Gob is moonlogic, it goes beyond not really making sense to me.

If I had to rank the possibilities based on how likely I think they are at the moment I think they would be as follows (ordered within tiers btw)

(Just Gob, Just Black)- Most feasible to me at the moment, feels like the likely realities we're in to me
(Snow/Black, Black/Gob, None of them)- Possible but less feasible then the above two atm for me
(Snow/Gob, Just Snow, All of them)- These feel incredibly unlikely from my standpoint right now, would be shocked if any of these were true.

[SmileyDude1]

Also what was the benefit of gob claiming right now. Did he think his partner would get heat today or something?

If he's scum then he wanted to out the Vig. He started pushing me when he realized the Vig was one-shot

Which post made him realize the Vig was one-shot?

Snow claimed 1-shot

Snow never claimed 1-shot

I noticed this but didn't want to say anything about it. Kind of wished you didn't bring that up

[shaddowez]

sus people:
gob
NotAScum
RN
StD

Town:
Smiley
Snow

Hu,Black,shaddowez are null

Why StD in the sus pool?

Do you townread StD?

Not particularly, but I also don't TR Naerys. And since she hadn't mentioned him in any post up until then, curious as to what the reason for her read is.

[shaddowez]

Also what was the benefit of gob claiming right now. Did he think his partner would get heat today or something?

If he's scum then he wanted to out the Vig. He started pushing me when he realized the Vig was one-shot

Which post made him realize the Vig was one-shot?

Snow claimed 1-shot

Snow never claimed 1-shot

I noticed this but didn't want to say anything about it. Kind of wished you didn't bring that up

I considered not, but also thought that the reactions could be informative.

[Hu Tao]

Holy long post

[Hu Tao]

After reading the long post I would say I agree

[SmileyDude1]

Also what was the benefit of gob claiming right now. Did he think his partner would get heat today or something?

If he's scum then he wanted to out the Vig. He started pushing me when he realized the Vig was one-shot

Which post made him realize the Vig was one-shot?

Snow claimed 1-shot

Snow never claimed 1-shot

I noticed this but didn't want to say anything about it. Kind of wished you didn't bring that up

I considered not, but also thought that the reactions could be informative.

Do you have a take on the Gob/Snow situation?

[Hu Tao]

sus people:
gob
NotAScum
RN
StD

Town:
Smiley
Snow

Hu,Black,shaddowez are null

Why StD in the sus pool?

Do you townread StD?

Not particularly, but I also don't TR Naerys. And since she hadn't mentioned him in any post up until then, curious as to what the reason for her read is.

What are your thoughts on RN/black/NAS

[SmileyDude1]

Spoiler:

Think I lean towards launching Gob over Black here right now. If i'm being honest there's a part of me that's hesitant to E-1 this so early into the day, and there's another part of me that wants to YOLO it. Maybe one day i'll let the reckless side of myself prevail, but I think i'm going to follow my cautious side and give both another readover after sleeping on it before I commit to that. Expect a vote from me sometime tomorrow pending any thread events disincentivizing such

[Hu Tao]

I think we just eliminate gob

[shaddowez]

Do you have a take on the Gob/Snow situation?

Working under the assumption that one is a vig, Snow has a much higher likelihood of being town. He wasn't in any danger of being limmed, so the only thing a cc does is put a target on him if gob ends up limmed and flips green.

Like others have said, it is possible gob was trying to cover for the real vig. However, that's a pretty long gambit - while it would be hard to believe that Cakez was the scum target and Ari was the vig, explicitly stating the target makes it a pretty high bar to hit without knowing which was which. Not infeasible in this situation, but unlikely.

[NotAScum]

Gob should be our target today for sure. The possible scum team is gob + black + ht

[Random Nurse]

Gob should be our target today for sure. The possible scum team is gob + black + ht

I'm OK with launching Gob.

However, if it turns out he's Scum I cannot stress enough putting scrutiny on Black.

[Black]

Gob should be our target today for sure. The possible scum team is gob + black + ht

I'm OK with launching Gob.

However, if it turns out he's Scum I cannot stress enough putting scrutiny on Black.

Who do you think is scum in a town!gob world?

[Random Nurse]

Gob should be our target today for sure. The possible scum team is gob + black + ht

I'm OK with launching Gob.

However, if it turns out he's Scum I cannot stress enough putting scrutiny on Black.

Who do you think is scum in a town!gob world?

Well, if Gob is Town then Snow would be dead immediately.

If Gob us Town, putting Snow aside, I'd have to re-evaluate.

[gob]

Black is definitely scum. Hu Tao also seems to be acum given her short attack on me. Feels fake.

There is a hig contrast in how Black And Hu Tao attacked and and how Nurse/Smiley/whoever approached my case

[gob]

Oh yea i am not vigilante. Sorry for lying about it. Wasnt even planning on it really. Just sorta did it without thinking.

[Random Nurse]

Oh yea i am not vigilante. Sorry for lying about it. Wasnt even planning on it really. Just sorta did it without thinking.

...

How do you sorta lie about being Vig without thinking?

VOTE: Gob

[gob]

Oh yea i am not vigilante. Sorry for lying about it. Wasnt even planning on it really. Just sorta did it without thinking.

...

How do you sorta lie about being Vig without thinking?

VOTE: Gob

I was giving cover for Snow. There is no sense in me hiding anymore though especially since it lokks like im gonna get limmed