Mini Normal 2327: Bird Species (Game Over)

[Ausuka]

(I am v/la, these vcs will be mobile so please correct if I made a mistake, thanks)

VOTECOUNT 3.2

Random Nurse (3)

- Black, SmileyDude1, Save the Dragons

Black (2)

- Random Nurse, NotAScum

Naerys (1)

- shaddowez

NotAScum (1)

- Hu Tao

Not Voting (1)

- Naerys

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 3 is in (expired on 2024-03-10 17:16:48).

[Black]

I wish RN was more available and open with his thoughts because I think there's a chance he's town. I'm just not going to be able to find him as town if he's barely here and when he is here he's tunneled on me

[Black]

If RN and NAS are both town then this game is going to be an uphill battle

[Black]

Do you have a take on the Gob/Snow situation?

Working under the assumption that one is a vig, Snow has a much higher likelihood of being town. He wasn't in any danger of being limmed, so the only thing a cc does is put a target on him if gob ends up limmed and flips green.

Like others have said, it is possible gob was trying to cover for the real vig. However, that's a pretty long gambit - while it would be hard to believe that Cakez was the scum target and Ari was the vig, explicitly stating the target makes it a pretty high bar to hit without knowing which was which. Not infeasible in this situation, but unlikely.

I really don't like how hedgy this is

[Black]

I just read over the gob/Snow claim pages again and I can't believe people think this was theatre between me and gob

Anyway I'm kinda surprised shaddow didn't really have more to say about all this when he came in the thread later. He corrected me on the Snow one-shot thing and asked Naerys about a read. It wasn't until Smiley asked him about Gob/Snow that he gave his thoughts. I feel like town!shaddow would provide thoughts more willingly during such an crucial moment in the game

[Black]

It could be that 2 scums were in Cakez wagon (to distance themselves from a mislim) and thus they did not kill Cakez (to play against him) and killed a townie on the T3 train (to compromise other members of the T3 train). I am more inclined to look closer at Cakez wagon for scum search.

SirCakez (4) - Save the Dragons, T3, Hu Tao, gob

Unless you don't believe gob's claim

, you're saying that both StD and Hu are scum, there's no "searching".

This is also pinging me a little. This was before Snow's CC. It just feels a little like a guilty conscious thing to say, like shaddow knows gob is fakeclaiming and is getting slightly defensive here

[Black]

@Smiley didn't you say you thought Naerys/Gob had unpartnered interactions? Can you point these out because I'm not seeing them

[Black]

Also I'm not sure I agree that shaddow/Naerys can't be partnered. It's true shaddow has been pushing Naerys for most of the game but it's been a very light push, and it almost seems like something he falls back on to seem like he's doing stuff. For example instead of commenting on the gob/Snow claim stuff he just asked Naerys a question about her StD read. I'm not sure how likely this pairing is but I think it's at least possible

[Hu Tao]

VOTECOUNT 1.10

T3

(7)

- Black,

SirCakez

, Random Nurse,

SmileyDude1

, Naerys,

Aristeia

, shaddowez

SirCakez

(4)

-

Save the Dragons

,

T3

, Hu Tao,

gob

No Elimination (1)

-

Snow2697

Not Voting (1)

- NotAScum

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2024-02-26 01:12:53).

Another thing to consider, do we think the T3 wagon was pure? I'm inclined to think no given the general state of the gamestate (both main wagons on town, I think scum being completely off one of them feels unlikely.

Yeah I think i'd be down for Nurse, Black.

VOTE: Random Nurse

I personally am getting paranoid about shaddowez a little, i will need to reread once i feel bit better

What about shadow in particular? (Hope you're getting better )

[Hu Tao]

If RN and NAS are both town then this game is going to be an uphill battle

Big doubt. Since that would mean both Naerys and Shadow would be scum and I don't see that

[Black]

If RN and NAS are both town then this game is going to be an uphill battle

Big doubt. Since that would mean both Naerys and Shadow would be scum and I don't see that

Why not?

[SmileyDude1]

@Smiley didn't you say you thought Naerys/Gob had unpartnered interactions? Can you point these out because I'm not seeing them

I think most of my feeling about Gob/Naerys was coming from what I had felt was more generally a negative perspective on Naerys from gob's end due to 437 and 666, as well as Naerys handling of day 2 feeling good (Given Gob's flip, I had liked that she went to Gob wagon. Especially given she was one of the earlier people to do so and unlike some others it didn't feel like they were trying to push an agenda in doing so).

I think a lot of me saying that was more based on vibes, though I think my confidence there is weakening over time. The more I think about it, the less clearing Gob's interactions with Naerys are in comparison to some others (They were the first pairing I did, so I didn't have a good baseline at the time), and thinking about it more it feels decently likely that scum would want to position themselves against gob early due to low longevity of his vig claim, so I'm not sure I can clear on that either.

As mentioned in my 1133, there's a decent chance that if one of my townreads is wrong it's Naerys though I'm not sure I'm at the point where I'd want to shoot there yet today.

Also sorry for hopping on super late, been having a bit of an issue of intermittent pain in my right ear recently . Probs going to look into getting that checked out soon.

[SmileyDude1]

Hu, what do you think about Black + STD?

I can tell you that you're guaranteed 0 for 1 here (probs 0 for 2 if i'm being honest). What are your thoughts in light of what's transpired here since you left?

[SmileyDude1]

I am less sure on Black being town. I think her reads lately have been sus. And I don't see her reasoning for scumreading me. Even if she thought it was me and RN that's contingent on RN being scum. And has yet to say reasons why I'm scum independently

I actually think there's a world where both RN/NAS are town and you're scum with someone like Naerys or shaddow

You think my reads lately have been sus? That doesn't seem very truthful considering you just said we had similar reads and tried to use that as a reason why I should townread you

I scumread you because you're in the PoE and you haven't done anything that has made me go "oh I guess Hu is town"

This "I'm not sure about Black anymore" feels completely fake

In regards to the first sentence I agree. In a world where both NaS and Nurse are town that means that the only possivle teams are Hu Tao/Shaddow, Hu Tao/Naerys, and Shaddow/Naerys. Off the top of my head I don't think Shaddow/Naerys really works here (Shaddowez most consistent push in this game has been the Naerys slot), which only leaves the Hu solves remaining there.

I'm still trying to parse if it's reasonable (like decently) for Nurse/NaS as both town world to exist. In terms of launching Hu Tao, my initial gut kind of tells me that I don't want NaS and Nurse both in an ELO so would want to shoot there first. I probably need to think on it more before I come to a conclusion on that including reading over Hu Tao again, with a focus on looking at her in a vacuum (there interactions with flip scum feel alright)

Also thought that I wanted to get out. I think the way this day phase has went probs makes the Nurse/NAS both town world less likely to me. As mentioned earlier in the above post I think that most worlds where this is true would require Hu Tao scum. I find Hu Tao's persistence on wanting NAS today to be notable in this regard.

I know StD is town and I have high confidence in Black town.
Assuming Nurse and NAS both town, I feel Scum!Hu Tao probs would have been alright voting Nurse by this point in most scenarios. Keep in mind that we have 1 spare elimination left until MELO and NotScum's tunnel on Black. I think if we were in Hu Tao + Naerys/Shaddow world, you probs go along with launching Nurse, probs kill me, and go into MELO knowing that NotScum probs isn't going to be willing to go along wiith Black here. I think Hu Tao's persistent NAS preference indicates that she probably can only be scum with Nurse.


If you consider the above to be true then the only world (FMPOV) where Nurse/NAS are both town is one where it's exactly Naerys+Shaddow which as I mentioned in 1303 doesn't feel the most likely (granted that's admittedly a base-level read that should be probed at deeper at some point).

It's 3:30 AM where i'm at and I have work in the morning so I have to go. Good night

[Black]

Assuming Nurse and NAS both town, I feel Scum!Hu Tao probs would have been alright voting Nurse by this point in most scenarios. Keep in mind that we have 1 spare elimination left until MELO and NotScum's tunnel on Black. I think if we were in Hu Tao + Naerys/Shaddow world, you probs go along with launching Nurse, probs kill me, and go into MELO knowing that NotScum probs isn't going to be willing to go along wiith Black here. I think Hu Tao's persistent NAS preference indicates that she probably can only be scum with Nurse

I disagree. Hu Tao has already begun the shift to RN by saying she's not opposed to voting there. I actually think her reluctance to vote there is somewhat alarming, but if she's scum then it doesn't have to be with RN. She could easily be playing into the Hu/RN theory and setting him up to look like scum if she flips

[Black]

Random Nurse may have site flaked

If he's town then maybe a replacement will be able to show us that

[NotAScum]

I think Black or HT is the way to go. I'm leaning more towards Black, but can be swayed to HT. I'm still neutral about RN, again no anti-town behavior. Naerys & shaddowez need more examinations.

[Black]

I could do Hu Tao

[Ausuka]

Prodding random nurse and shaddowez.

[Black]

I think I may have somewhat talked myself out of my RN scumread last night. Not fully but I'm finally considering what the solve may be if he's town

[Save The Dragons]

i want to shoot in {NAS, RN, HT} today

[shaddowez]

I'm back and catching up, but based on what I've read so far I'm comfortable with HT. Her defense on Naerys, regardless of Naerys' alignment, feels like it's forced and not a real town read. Some of the assumptions/reasonings there don't come off as legit.

VOTE: Hu Tao

[shaddowez]

Their*** (I'm so sorry HT!)

[Hu Tao]

If RN and NAS are both town then this game is going to be an uphill battle

Big doubt. Since that would mean both Naerys and Shadow would be scum and I don't see that

Why not?

Because I think one of RN or NAS is scum based on how yesterday went. I think it's NAS

[Hu Tao]

Assuming Nurse and NAS both town, I feel Scum!Hu Tao probs would have been alright voting Nurse by this point in most scenarios. Keep in mind that we have 1 spare elimination left until MELO and NotScum's tunnel on Black. I think if we were in Hu Tao + Naerys/Shaddow world, you probs go along with launching Nurse, probs kill me, and go into MELO knowing that NotScum probs isn't going to be willing to go along wiith Black here. I think Hu Tao's persistent NAS preference indicates that she probably can only be scum with Nurse

I disagree. Hu Tao has already begun the shift to RN by saying she's not opposed to voting there. I actually think her reluctance to vote there is somewhat alarming, but if she's scum then it doesn't have to be with RN. She could easily be playing into the Hu/RN theory and setting him up to look like scum if she flips

I'm so confused with this. So I'm scum for not voting RN but also scum for willing to compromise at deadline?