Mini Theme 2330 - A Questionable Almost-Normal Game - Postgame

[usesPython]

We're resolving the question of if scum knew about everyone being cop d1 by looking at the overall picture of the cop claims. There's enough people with anti-cop or weak cop equity that to us it doesn't make sense for that to be happening if scum were informed about the cops in advance since they'd know to fake cop and the overall average quality of cop claims would be higher

[Black]

I'm sorry I don't understand. Why would scum!Drew think this is the setup?

The exact setup doesn't as long as scum don't know it's an all cop game, do you think the gamestate supports this or not?

I have no clue what the gamestate supports

What does that even mean

I think if the scumteam has godfathers and they see a Disloyal Cop claim then they would probably expect there to be other ways to catch them, right?

Our point isn't if town has other ways of catching Godfathers but that Drew explicitly played d1 EOD as a Cop would and that the gamestate doesn't support the belief that scum Drew would know to aggressively take heat and fake cop here over just letting the opportunity pass and blasting Lap at night

Scum Drew would specifically need to know everyone's a cop in order for his EOD play to make sense as scum, which is the only mechanical question that's necessary to sort Drew

I'm confused why Drew's reaction couldn't have come from someone that doesn't know we're all cops. I'm not trying to play dumb I legitimately don't get it. Please explain

[JacksonVirgo]

I’ll explain my thought process soon, am working can’t be fucked honestly lol

[JacksonVirgo]

JV could be a light partner if she flips scum. This counter wagon on me doesn't feel good

You don’t think I’d commit to a bus given my position?

What position?

I’ve been sitting comfy all game, and I’ve been scumreading them nearly all game. That’d be one hell of a choice to make to pivot away now

[usesPython]

I'm confused why Drew's reaction couldn't have come from someone that doesn't know we're all cops. I'm not trying to play dumb I legitimately don't get it. Please explain

Imagine if Koba flipped VT (or any other role that wouldn't make everyone think everyone is a cop), how does Drew survive d2?

Answer: Either not at all or with great difficulty

Imagine if Drew didn't hammer and we wagoned someone d1 who flips VT (or any other role that wouldn't make everyone think everyone is a cop) and then Lap gets shot at night (with no clears since they die n1), how does Drew survive d2?

Answer: Easily

In order for Drew aggressively pushing Lap after the claim to make sense he'd specifically need to know it's safe to pretend to be a Cop pushing a fakeclaim and that there'd be enough Cop flips by the start of day 2 that people would assume something's up and predict the Godfathers. Without the two cop flips happening his play doesn't make any sense from a survival perspective and the only way he'd know that people would see two cop flips and predict the setup as scum is if he knew everyone was a cop

[usesPython]

More specifically:

1. He can only believably push Lap if people believe his cop claim and
   
2. The only way people would believe his cop claim as scum from a balance perspective would be if Drew being cop didn't affect the scumteam, which would require people to accept a GF game, which would require people to realise some bullshit is happening from seeing 2 cop flips, a cop claim, and their cop PM. This would require scum to know everyone is a cop instead of there being like tracker/watcher/rolecop/whatever that would catch Godfathers instead

[Black]

JV could be a light partner if she flips scum. This counter wagon on me doesn't feel good

You don’t think I’d commit to a bus given my position?

What position?

I’ve been sitting comfy all game, and I’ve been scumreading them nearly all game. That’d be one hell of a choice to make to pivot away now

Why would you need to bus if you've been sitting pretty? The fact that you have been pushing them all game doesn't make you town in a scum!Drew world

[Black]

python I'll respond to you later I have to leave for work

[usesPython]

Like you're coming at it from the perspective of knowing you're cop and seeing the two cop flips, scum would only have the knowledge that Lap is probably trueclaiming Disloyal Cop

[JacksonVirgo]

What if I wish for it suuuper hard

[usesPython]

Like you're coming at it from the perspective of knowing you're cop and seeing the two cop flips, scum would only have the knowledge that Lap is probably trueclaiming Disloyal Cop

This is a townslip from Black

[usesPython]

We don't want Drew or Black here

[Ranger]

Interesting, I got a wave of scummy vibe from Black just now. Not sure if that's because I feel that was a silly argument to make, or if they're scum but worth noting

It’s possible.

I believe Town Cop v Scum Panic is detectable, yet Black's analysis certainly isn’t how to.

[Ranger]

Why am I town

You're my masonbuddy with usesPython,

obviously

.

But we're masons #jealous. Don't go break my heart tonight.

Here's a subtle crumb. Ranger's town unless she breaks my heart (by being a scum check).

That’s the issue.

You were acting as if you knew you needed to be seen as a Town Cop.

[Ranger]

I'll explain in about 12 hours if exhaustion doesn’t claim me. (It may, as per the last two days.)

[Ranger]

I'm wary of voting light because of titus and python on the wagon but maybe I should step on the gas and find out which pairing makes most sense...

I’ll give you a hint.

If a team feels wrong, it is.

There’s also no rush.

I’ve promised to explain why Titus is spewed scum here.

Exhaustion delayed delivery, yet the promise remains.

I certainly am willing to vote light, and have been the whole game (perhaps a hint as to how valid the idea I'd be paired with him is), yet I see no reason to settle for possible scum when I’ve found definitive scum.

[Ranger]

VOTE: ranger

interesting.

Quite. It demonstrates to me light has no interest in self-preservation despite his claim of nonstandard cop. He’s not going to dissolve his wagon or get momentum on a counterwagon by voting me.

The above, I’m certain about. What this translates into for alignment, I make no final judgment yet. I can see town pursuing their reads not caring, I can see scum making a strategic decision to not save themselves. Which of the two, I am pondering; I lean scum.

[Black]

I'm confused why Drew's reaction couldn't have come from someone that doesn't know we're all cops. I'm not trying to play dumb I legitimately don't get it. Please explain

Imagine if Koba flipped VT (or any other role that wouldn't make everyone think everyone is a cop), how does Drew survive d2?

Answer: Either not at all or with great difficulty

Imagine if Drew didn't hammer and we wagoned someone d1 who flips VT (or any other role that wouldn't make everyone think everyone is a cop) and then Lap gets shot at night (with no clears since they die n1), how does Drew survive d2?

Answer: Easily

In order for Drew aggressively pushing Lap after the claim to make sense he'd specifically need to know it's safe to pretend to be a Cop pushing a fakeclaim and that there'd be enough Cop flips by the start of day 2 that people would assume something's up and predict the Godfathers. Without the two cop flips happening his play doesn't make any sense from a survival perspective and the only way he'd know that people would see two cop flips and predict the setup as scum is if he knew everyone was a cop

Ok, I think I understand what you're saying. I feel like trading one scum in order to kill the Disloyal Cop would probably be a good move, but even then there's no guarantee that everyone just pushes Drew D2. There's a real possibility he could push a Lap fade through and still survive D2

I guess I'm just not as willing to believe his behavior is enough to clear him but that might be due to how hard it is for me to mentally clear people

[Black]

Like you're coming at it from the perspective of knowing you're cop and seeing the two cop flips, scum would only have the knowledge that Lap is probably trueclaiming Disloyal Cop

This is a townslip from Black

How

[Ranger]

Can someone mechanically explain why Enchant is confTown again?(this isn't snark, I want to dot the I's and cross the T's here)

We're mechanically guaranteed a VT, and Enchant is the VT.

He must therefore be town.

[Ranger]

Where’s the consolidation wagon? I’m not doing Titus

I'm not budging from Titus when she is spewed scum.

[Black]

Where’s the consolidation wagon? I’m not doing Titus

I'm not budging from Titus when she is spewed scum.

I think Titus is scummy but I would prefer it if you explained why instead of just repeating that she's spewed scum

[usesPython]

Like you're coming at it from the perspective of knowing you're cop and seeing the two cop flips, scum would only have the knowledge that Lap is probably trueclaiming Disloyal Cop

This is a townslip from Black

How

Feels like if you were scum you'd understand our argument faster from sheer lived experience, it taking this long for you to get our position indicates that you had to throw away your established setup knowledge (You're cop, two cops flipped, godfather game, etc.) to create an entire new setup where you have to view the game from what would be scum!Drews knowledge that you would also have as scum (Lap is Disloyal Cop, Town don't know about Godfathers, setup is a big question mark)

[usesPython]

I'm confused why Drew's reaction couldn't have come from someone that doesn't know we're all cops. I'm not trying to play dumb I legitimately don't get it. Please explain

Imagine if Koba flipped VT (or any other role that wouldn't make everyone think everyone is a cop), how does Drew survive d2?

Answer: Either not at all or with great difficulty

Imagine if Drew didn't hammer and we wagoned someone d1 who flips VT (or any other role that wouldn't make everyone think everyone is a cop) and then Lap gets shot at night (with no clears since they die n1), how does Drew survive d2?

Answer: Easily

In order for Drew aggressively pushing Lap after the claim to make sense he'd specifically need to know it's safe to pretend to be a Cop pushing a fakeclaim and that there'd be enough Cop flips by the start of day 2 that people would assume something's up and predict the Godfathers. Without the two cop flips happening his play doesn't make any sense from a survival perspective and the only way he'd know that people would see two cop flips and predict the setup as scum is if he knew everyone was a cop

Ok, I think I understand what you're saying. I feel like trading one scum in order to kill the Disloyal Cop would probably be a good move, but even then there's no guarantee that everyone just pushes Drew D2. There's a real possibility he could push a Lap fade through and still survive D2

Sure but it's a lot riskier than just shooting Lap at night for the benefit of maybe hitting an extra PR instead of being forced to shoot Lap, the cost/benefit doesn't add up

[Ranger]

VOTE: Black

I want it put on the record Black could be scum.

I’m skeptical she is, and regardless see no reason to abandon pursuing the much more likely scum, Titus.