Mini Normal 2329: complex. [game over!]

[Psyche]

Titus
Hu Tao
Aristeia
geraintm
KayJayQueue

it's a small list. somehow almost totally PR claims. which two??
i came in not really psychologically prepared to scumread anyone here, and it's still feeling close to that

i think there are some reasons to scumread hu tao (which i guess i'll take some time to carefully elaborate), including a global baseline suspicion of skilled players, but also that the scenario where she bussed NAS and even gera (??) is super tough to imagine. it's not impossible but it means she chose to play the game on hard mode kind of early and went out of her way to do it. the claim is tough to evaluate, with the decision to hide it until after the massclaim's first pass being sort of questionable; i've definitely seen scum use gunsmith to fakeclaim before, and even clear town to do it. gunsmith is also theoretically powerful enough to ward off a vigshot -- it could even clear additional town or find scum if allowed to survive. it's a weird situation where hu tao seems to be in both a bad and a great position if she were scum. occam's razor says we should just accept that she's town but...idk. i'll have to return to this to outline the things in her play i find scummy and decide if they mean anything.

Titus's play has been ineffective at best, and disengaged from most discourse happening here. But I've seen her play like this before in games where she flipped town. And her play around dannflor looks like it holds sincere conviction in her read, though one could argue that she may have failed to pressure dannflor much after her claim failed to convince anyone to feel differently. This feels more likely than most alternatives, but is sort of missing its own case.

ari's frustration at various points in this game seems genuine, organic, consistent -- and not just in a "caught scum" sort of way. it's really hard for me to imagine her as scum. 1743 looks particularly sincere. playwise, she's been rather passive since her naeyrs vote on D1, but this facilitated the NAS lim. i'm more inclined to use people's readiness to scumread this slot as a potential tell than to scumread it myself -- maybe this makes titus scum a more likely call since imo she substantially misread ari in 973 (though i don't recall the details of that post atm -- this is me summarizing notes from last Night).

i've covered across a couple of posts what i find suspicious about gera beyond his not doing much for most of the game. the most recent one focuses on my evaluation of his claim. iirc the one before is critical of an analysis he attempted and outlines this theory that gera might be leaning on his meta too hard to justify his lackluster play, with the sign that he is doing so being the rather doctrinaire way he commits to this approach. but on the other hand a factor behind my davesaz shot was the doctraire way he initially rejected my NAS case ("i can't scumread people who have only made 5 posts" or something), so i'm loathe to anchor on that issue again. on the townside, several posts in his iso feel genuinely apologetic about the depth of his play and others even seem to be trying to sort. but as inactive scum i've been able to channel sincere regret about the quality of my play into some convincing posts, so i think i still overwhelmingly scumread this slot, particularly given my other options.

kay...i don't even know how to imagine her posts as coming from a scum pov. an inexperienced player as scum might explain some of the more questionable calls we know scum have made (eg targetting unconfirmed VTs, not helping NAS resist a D2 lim). and her voting trajectory isn't exactly clearing. but her posts really do look like sorting behavior, similarly to how dann's iso has looked for most of the game. even her resistance to the initial NAS wagon feels organic and well-motivated -- neither too invested or underinvested either. i thinkkk we just have to bet the game on her being town.

this seems to narrow it to hutao/titus/gera for me. small enough pool for us to win i guessss.

[Psyche]

VOTE: Aristela

Just following wagons. No following up on Clout. Only 2 mentions before the vote.

973 was early enough that i can't hold it against titus just for voting ari. i remember taking some time to weigh whether there was anything to it (titus was probed to explain each part of this pretty concise post); there wasn't

[Psyche]

bahhh idk if the game is worth this much additional effort. if the ari/kay reads are right we win; if they aren't we don't. maybe we just get titus's final claim and seem this through.

[Aristeia]

fwiw i think titus if mafia would have some level of fear of me to not deathtunnel me

[Hu Tao]

bahhh idk if the game is worth this much additional effort. if the ari/kay reads are right we win; if they aren't we don't. maybe we just get titus's final claim and seem this through.

I think you're town binning ari way too easy.

[Hu Tao]

I already explained how yesterday her frustrations didn't match what the game state was.

[Hu Tao]

I think titus' full claim could potentially give us a confirmed win though if we get scum today

[KayJayQueue]

Titus where are youuu

[Random Nurse]

Pretty much. But I'm likely dying tonight

You think you'll die before a confirmed IC?

[Psyche]

that's actually one of the posts that don't sit well w me
scum have a wide range of valid kill options tonight
they definitely have a lot of good reasons to avoid killing in the pool of uncleared slots, even if hu tao's role is pretty powerful wo more context

but i haven't really thought through what their win condition is given this gamestate, what needs to go their way. maybe it's just that important to them that hutao doesn't collect any new results.

[Psyche]

another thing:

I'm so confident Naerys flips scum this game. Eliminate me and vote her out tomorrow. I agree with this.

VOTE: hu tao

She's contradicting herself. She does this as scum. She literally I'd saying the thing she did as town last game is now scummy when I do it.

It is worth the sacrifice to get 1 scum out the game. But only if it is agreed that she is the elimination tomorrow

this reasoning is even less sound if hu tao was a soft cop the whole time

suggests hu tao never sincerely intended to trade a naerys lim for her lim back in day 1
did anyone reading think she did? if so, they should doubt their ability to track her sincerity now

[Psyche]

It is worth the sacrifice to get 1 scum out the game. But only if it is agreed that she is the elimination tomorrow

that's really dumb! why would anyone agree to that? has an entire town ever agreed to that?

Well if town thinks I'm scum better for them to see I'm town and just vote out my scumread after. Last time Naerys was scum and I was town I literally had to beg for 3 pages for town to eliminate Naerys after I flipped town.

For context:

1 or 2 more for hammer. I probably die tonight. Good bye everyone. I think Naerys is last assuming Prince is scum

Last scum is likely not vanilla.

So enchant is prob town if he's confirmed vanilla.

I think Dunn and kyouko are town.

PoP is likely scum .

Broccoli by vibe is town but by play is sus.

Naerys is likely scum partner and should be the elim tomorrow assuming PoP is scum

Naerys
Hu Tao
Broccoli Quest 2
Guillotina
Enchant
Dunnstral
ssbm_Kyouko

This is the alive list - 7 alive, 4 to hammer - Naerys, Hu Tao, BQ2 and I voted you

I trust your judgement tomorrow but please have naerys as the Elim tomorrow assuming pop is scum

I repeat kill Naerys tomorrow, she chained self to mafia claiming DOCTOR.


Naerys and fresh replacement may be reason why mafia didn't bother to skip kill, they are both just didn't knew hell about it.

I agree naerys is most sus

I'll trust town to decide if naerys isn't scum. But yeah, that should be the vote tomorrow. Sorry for repeating myself so many times.

And yes she was scum.

not helping the "more focused on selling yourself as genuine than finding scum" accusations

Well it won't matter when I flip town? So who cares. There is no mystery anymore.

these posts are not consistent w an experienced player holding an town gunsmith role pm

[Hu Tao]

No. I planned to make the deal since I figured I'd be getting a scum so it would be fine

[Hu Tao]

So I think PC is probably town BTW. Day ended before I could go over final reads, he started to act like he did as his last town game I was in with him and he started to ask more questions toward the end with me.

vote count 1.final

with 13 votes in play, it took 7 to make a decision. day 1 ended.

yeet

Naerys [7]:

Random Nurse

, davesaz, geraintm, Hu Tao, Titus, Aristeia, NotAScum

[HAMMER]

NotAScum [2]:

Dannflor, Klick

not voting [4]:

Naerys, KayJayQueue, Political Clout, Psyche

mod notes

fun fact: all flavour images this game have been provided by our wonderful backup mod GeorgeBailey!

flavour

So based on wagon stuff. Naerys is town, PC is town, Kay is highly likely town, Psyche I think is town based on Klick kill (if it actually was a vigilante then they should say so, cause that changes this read)

We know Klick is town. So that means all 3 scum were on Naerys' wagon or Dann is scum assuming everything above is correct.

ok so my hesitation with NotAScum is that I think Political Clout is scum and I am pretty sure if that's the case then PC's weird hard town case on NAS yesterday was a TMI town read

PC is likely town. So NAS is a good vote

i dont care im going to case political clout anyway

Stop getting distracted by town

think it’s important for dann to feel heard if we’re going to make any progress.

I am willing to hear Dann. Just not on PC being scum and him basing his reads off that.

Town

Hu Taown
Random Nurse
Political Clout

Leaning Town

Psyche
davesaz
Titus

Slight Town

KayJayQueue

Unsure

Aristeia
Dannflor
geraintm
NotAScum

VOTE: PC

Naur

hu tao why are you town reading titus and PC

Drew I liked before he left with his questions. Titus I like her vibe. When she was scum before she was obvious in the last game I was in with her. PC I'm just pretty confident in. I don't think he's scum based on end of day yesterday and how he approached me.

I literally cannot see a path to Hu Tao being scum. I think we’re going in circles trying to find reasons Hu might be bad. If we’re voting NAS, I’m fine with it. PC? Sure let’s do it. But I think we’re chasing our tails with the Hu discussion. I’m ready to put Hu next to RN on my list.

WHY? HOW? WHAT???????

Because I received a green PM

I want to yeet PC

I am Vanilla townie

Too bad

Look how many PC town softs I did

[Hu Tao]

Pretty much. But I'm likely dying tonight

You think you'll die before a confirmed IC?

Scum can't keep a gunsmith alive. Especially if we hit scum today.

[Hu Tao]

I literally gigabrained this and set it up perfectly for this moment. I made scum think I was VT. And me claiming later allowed Kay to even out something that is credible.

[Hu Tao]

Anyway. I guess we still wait for Titus

[Hu Tao]

Please full claim when you're back

[Hu Tao]

It is worth the sacrifice to get 1 scum out the game. But only if it is agreed that she is the elimination tomorrow

that's really dumb! why would anyone agree to that? has an entire town ever agreed to that?

Well if town thinks I'm scum better for them to see I'm town and just vote out my scumread after. Last time Naerys was scum and I was town I literally had to beg for 3 pages for town to eliminate Naerys after I flipped town.

For context:

1 or 2 more for hammer. I probably die tonight. Good bye everyone. I think Naerys is last assuming Prince is scum

Last scum is likely not vanilla.

So enchant is prob town if he's confirmed vanilla.

I think Dunn and kyouko are town.

PoP is likely scum .

Broccoli by vibe is town but by play is sus.

Naerys is likely scum partner and should be the elim tomorrow assuming PoP is scum

Naerys
Hu Tao
Broccoli Quest 2
Guillotina
Enchant
Dunnstral
ssbm_Kyouko

This is the alive list - 7 alive, 4 to hammer - Naerys, Hu Tao, BQ2 and I voted you

I trust your judgement tomorrow but please have naerys as the Elim tomorrow assuming pop is scum

I repeat kill Naerys tomorrow, she chained self to mafia claiming DOCTOR.


Naerys and fresh replacement may be reason why mafia didn't bother to skip kill, they are both just didn't knew hell about it.

I agree naerys is most sus

I'll trust town to decide if naerys isn't scum. But yeah, that should be the vote tomorrow. Sorry for repeating myself so many times.

And yes she was scum.

not helping the "more focused on selling yourself as genuine than finding scum" accusations

Well it won't matter when I flip town? So who cares. There is no mystery anymore.

these posts are not consistent w an experienced player holding an town gunsmith role pm

I should be at E-1 now I think. Remember after you see me flip town to vote Naerys tomorrow or I'll be pretty upset.

To go back to this. That's why I made the post above. Because I'd be giving up a PR role for it. But I realized since you all didn't know I was pr it sounded more like a tactic than an exchange since you can't see my role. Which is why I stopped after

I find this tactic really obnoxious and would appreciate if you avoided it in the future

But I think you're not that likely to have partners

This isn't a tactic or play. I'm just trying to do an equal exchange. In my mind once I flip town maybe people will see what I mean.

[Psyche]

uhh i'll stew on it

maybe setup spec. can we accept a world where it's just gera with the fake pr claim?

[Psyche]

ohh nas is bulletproof-

immune

. that just means he ignores bulletproofs when he NKs, right?

[Psyche]

NAS's role is pretty weak in context. even that part only kicks in N3+? lame

[Hu Tao]

I was gonna ask that. I thought that meant he couldn't be vigged after n3? Confused.

[Psyche]

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Immune

[Hu Tao]

I see. Well, if I'm being honest. I think last 2 are gera and Ari. But we will see Titus' claim.