Mini Normal 2329: complex. [game over!]

[Political Clout]

any of these you particularly strongly feel is town?

I don't like that hu tao lied about their claim but them switching from me being scum to town d2 makes sense with their play/claim. I feel like kjq is playing around people not actually engaging that might be a new thing though I'm not sure. hu tao says they believe titus I'm not sure where that puts me on titus dannflor also said they believed titus... titus might just be town do you believe titus psyche? I don't really believe them. I think ari idk the day 2 feels a lot like town to me but with that level of insight that they've given do I believe that they would put naerys at -1 because rn said so? maybe they've never played with rn?

if i say titus gera are scum that feels right but also i'm going after the people who have posted least and who are less active. if gera flips scum I'll be really happy if he flips town idek what he is doing. I thought he said he would be easier to sort day 3 it's day 3 and nothing he basically just gave up???? Gera really feels like scum giving up with the doctor claim.

[Psyche]

gera is like nas was to me — plausible enough to be anxious about, but ultimately the decision we have to make right now

do we autowin if he's scum? let me consider...

[Political Clout]

any of these you particularly strongly feel is town?

I don't like that hu tao lied about their claim but them switching from me being scum to town d2 makes sense with their play/claim. I feel like kjq is playing around people not actually engaging that might be a new thing though I'm not sure. hu tao says they believe titus I'm not sure where that puts me on titus dannflor also said they believed titus... titus might just be town do you believe titus psyche? I don't really believe them. I think ari idk the day 2 feels a lot like town to me but with that level of insight that she's given do I believe that they would put naerys at -1 because rn said so? maybe she's never played with rn?

if i say titus gera are scum that feels right but also i'm going after the people who have posted least and who are less active. if gera flips scum I'll be really happy if he flips town idek what he is doing. I thought he said he would be easier to sort day 3 it's day 3 and nothing he basically just gave up???? Gera really feels like scum giving up with the doctor claim.

ebwop

[Psyche]

woah i think i just detected quite an error!

still -- yeah, we should start reasoning from the starting point that gera will flip scum. this anxiety about him being town is natural but probably pointless

[Hu Tao]

only reason to continue day is if anyone wants to have another say about where night actions go

i'm just gonna do what i want in the end, secure that it won't lose the game either way, but would loveee to be right

No stalling please

[Psyche]

worst case scenario if gera is scum, with arbitrary choices within the defined lim/shot pools
assumes a siingle remaining scum is in (kay, hu tao, titus, ari)

D3:
gera flips scum

N3:
roleblock fails to prevent a kill on a confirmed or clear a slot, so one of RN/me/PC dies
a hypothetical vig shot hits town (let's say ari)
leaving 1 scum remaining in 3 of: Titus, Hu Tao, KayJayQueue

D4:
6v2 -> 4v1
remaining scum would be one of: titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be two of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
town has 1/3 chance of guessing right!
we guess wrong, maybe picking titus so remaining scum would be one of: hutao/kay

N4:
scum kill in the confirmed, leaving just one alive in: me/rn/pc

D5:
2v1, mylo
game is a 1v1 between the 2 players still alive in titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be the survivor of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
all up to the survivor! town has a 50/50 chance of guessing right

something feels off in this math. it seems to imply that whether we call gera correctly or not, we have the same chance of winning. there's either an error here or in my earlier post

[Psyche]

only reason to continue day is if anyone wants to have another say about where night actions go

i'm just gonna do what i want in the end, secure that it won't lose the game either way, but would loveee to be right

No stalling please 🙏

if you're bored you can just go do something else this weekend

[Hu Tao]

worst case scenario if gera is scum, with arbitrary choices within the defined lim/shot pools
assumes a siingle remaining scum is in (kay, hu tao, titus, ari)

D3:
gera flips scum

N3:
roleblock fails to prevent a kill on a confirmed or clear a slot, so one of RN/me/PC dies
a hypothetical vig shot hits town (let's say ari)
leaving 1 scum remaining in 3 of: Titus, Hu Tao, KayJayQueue

D4:
6v2 -> 4v1
remaining scum would be one of: titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be two of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
town has 1/3 chance of guessing right!
we guess wrong, maybe picking titus so remaining scum would be one of: hutao/kay

N4:
scum kill in the confirmed, leaving just one alive in: me/rn/pc

D5:
2v1, mylo
game is a 1v1 between the 2 players still alive in titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be the survivor of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
all up to the survivor! town has a 50/50 chance of guessing right

something feels off in this math. it seems to imply that whether we call gera correctly or not, we have the same chance of winning. there's either an error here or in my earlier post

This is wrong since Kay would have been role blocked. Thus only having a scum in me or Titus from any scenario

[Hu Tao]

I don't think scum have a strong arm otherwise NaS' role makes no sense

[Political Clout]

I'm fine with voting now

[Hu Tao]

I'm fine with voting now

[Psyche]

worst case scenario if gera is scum, with arbitrary choices within the defined lim/shot pools
assumes a siingle remaining scum is in (kay, hu tao, titus, ari)

D3:
gera flips scum

N3:
roleblock fails to prevent a kill on a confirmed or clear a slot, so one of RN/me/PC dies
a hypothetical vig shot hits town (let's say ari)
leaving 1 scum remaining in 3 of: Titus, Hu Tao, KayJayQueue

D4:
6v2 -> 4v1
remaining scum would be one of: titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be two of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
town has 1/3 chance of guessing right!
we guess wrong, maybe picking titus so remaining scum would be one of: hutao/kay

N4:
scum kill in the confirmed, leaving just one alive in: me/rn/pc

D5:
2v1, mylo
game is a 1v1 between the 2 players still alive in titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be the survivor of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
all up to the survivor! town has a 50/50 chance of guessing right

something feels off in this math. it seems to imply that whether we call gera correctly or not, we have the same chance of winning. there's either an error here or in my earlier post

This is wrong since Kay would have been role blocked. Thus only having a scum in me or Titus from any scenario

i'm covering the worst scenario; which would include scum having a way around the roleblock

[Hu Tao]

Assuming Kay's role is legitimate, which I think it is. I'm curious how PC was chosen. Imagine we just got unlucky from a random draw and it wasn't an inno on someone else

[Hu Tao]

worst case scenario if gera is scum, with arbitrary choices within the defined lim/shot pools
assumes a siingle remaining scum is in (kay, hu tao, titus, ari)

D3:
gera flips scum

N3:
roleblock fails to prevent a kill on a confirmed or clear a slot, so one of RN/me/PC dies
a hypothetical vig shot hits town (let's say ari)
leaving 1 scum remaining in 3 of: Titus, Hu Tao, KayJayQueue

D4:
6v2 -> 4v1
remaining scum would be one of: titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be two of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
town has 1/3 chance of guessing right!
we guess wrong, maybe picking titus so remaining scum would be one of: hutao/kay

N4:
scum kill in the confirmed, leaving just one alive in: me/rn/pc

D5:
2v1, mylo
game is a 1v1 between the 2 players still alive in titus/hutao/kay
remaining town would be the survivor of: me/rn/pc, and someone in the above group
all up to the survivor! town has a 50/50 chance of guessing right

something feels off in this math. it seems to imply that whether we call gera correctly or not, we have the same chance of winning. there's either an error here or in my earlier post

This is wrong since Kay would have been role blocked. Thus only having a scum in me or Titus from any scenario

i'm covering the worst scenario; which would include scum having a way around the roleblock

If thts the situation and it comes down to me and Kay I'm fine with losing because it would have been a masterclass.

[Psyche]

i swear it feels like you're jumping to conclusoins a lot today
we're really not even imagining that the scum could have a juggernaut or their own interruption role?

[Psyche]

I don't think scum have a strong arm otherwise NaS' role makes no sense

why not? nas's role only realistically gets in the way of RN's role. if titus has a roleblock, scum must have other relatively strong abilities

[Psyche]

there's really no way i don't aim at hutao tonight, particularly if we end now

[Political Clout]

Assuming Kay's role is legitimate, which I think it is. I'm curious how PC was chosen. Imagine we just got unlucky from a random draw and it wasn't an inno on someone else :lol:

your solve is gera and ari right? I think it's interesting how you phrase this post made me pause for a second.

[Hu Tao]

i swear it feels like you're jumping to conclusoins a lot today
we're really not even imagining that the scum could have a juggernaut or their own interruption role?

Maybe they do. But it's not changing anything at all. Gera is the Elim and we already have a plan. If you want to sus me over stating the obvious, so be it.

[Random Nurse]

I'll still be skimming the thread.

[Hu Tao]

there's really no way i don't aim at hutao tonight, particularly if we end now

Just do it then. If you want to play suboptimal I cannot stop you.

[Hu Tao]

Assuming Kay's role is legitimate, which I think it is. I'm curious how PC was chosen. Imagine we just got unlucky from a random draw and it wasn't an inno on someone else

your solve is gera and ari right? I think it's interesting how you phrase this post made me pause for a second.

Yes. Because if it was me, then I would be clear and you would still be clear from me.

[Hu Tao]

I'll still be skimming the thread.

Great. Let us know your thoughts and vote gera whenever you're done please

[Psyche]

think calling it a masterclass overrates the town's abilities exhibited this game
if we lose this eminently winnable game it's because we're bad

[Psyche]

there's really no way i don't aim at hutao tonight, particularly if we end now

Just do it then. If you want to play suboptimal I cannot stop you.

imo it's you playing suboptimally -- and dropping a lot of underbaked takes at a pivotal point in the game