Mini Normal 2329: complex. [game over!]

[Aristeia]

so let's say i get my kill and gera flips scum
also, titus RBs kay
is that enough to confirm a win?
does it at least take another unconfirmed off the table?

if there's no kill you are at 4 unconfirmed with 3 elims
if there is a kill you are at 3 unconfirmed with 2 elims

[Psyche]

Titus RB scenarios after a scumflip:
NK doesn't happen -- kay is scum and titus is simultaneously confirmed town! we win
NK does happen -- (kay is not scum -- hutao is) OR (kay is not scum -- titus is and never RBd!) OR (kay is scum and can get around titus's RB somehow)

where a successful NK this leave us D4?
it looks to me like it's still a 1v1v1

we probably more strongly lean toward townreading kay though, kay being scum AND having exactly the right role to sidestep titus's RB is relatively unlikely.

[Psyche]

ok, now i see the logic in RBing a relatively strong townread (kay). it gets us as close to another confirm as we can get in this gamestate.

[Aristeia]

how about this

since Hu Tao is p confident that I'm mafia with Gera we do it this way.

we flip Gera today.

if Gera flips Mafia, you can vig me and Titus can roleblock Kay.

if Gera flips Town, Titus flips a coin on roleblocking between Kay and Hu Tao and you vig Hu Tao.

[Psyche]

oh, im probably undervaluing a D4 1v1v1.
it's not mylo tomorrow if gera flips scum.
this means we can safely lim two in that 1v1v1 without any risk.

in the worst case (assuming gerascum), telling titus to RB kay is probably enough to convince that kay is town. She's

very very lucky

if she's scum AND widely townread AND can avoid a RB.
so in this worst case scenario, it's as safe a bet as we can get that kay is town
therefore, we pretty much win, except in the scenario where kay is

very very lucky

[Psyche]

Ah, but I'm forgetting the scenario where my shot fails after gera flips scum.
Ugh how tedious.

[Psyche]

if my vigshot is interrupted, we can assume that's scum's whole ability! So kay is confirmed town if the NK succeeds.
D4 is a 1v1v1 again, but this time between titus, hutao, ari
Town gets two chances to get it right -- D4 and D5
not as cool
but still pretty good odds we win

[Random Nurse]

What if we launch Kay?

[Psyche]

what if i shoot titus while we instruct to RB kay?
this makes it easier to interpret the rb (since we'll know titus really is RB), but i guess kay could still be scum with a workaround
next day is hutao vs ari vs kay
kay is even closer to softconfirmed but otherwise things are not much different. or am i wrong? wonder if i could get someone else to think this through

[Psyche]

My math says that the only difference between me shooting ari or hutao tonight and me shooting titus tonight is that we get an even clearer idea of kay's by D4.
Does this mean I shoot titus? Or is my math wrong?

[Random Nurse]

I don't see how a roleblocker fits in with all of this. I Lind of feel maybe Titus is Scum and tried to give a convincing fake claim. Maybe launch her instead of gera today? If not why launch gera first?

[Psyche]

I don't see how a roleblocker fits in with all of this. I Lind of feel maybe Titus is Scum and tried to give a convincing fake claim. Maybe launch her instead of gera today? If not why launch gera first?

If you townread gera and scumread titus, it might still be best to lim gera anyway because of titus's RB claim.

If titus is town, the RB has a reasonable chance of interrupting the night kill.
If titus is scum, we can still direct her target tonight and infer things about her target afterward. In particular, we can more strongly townread the person we direct her target

if

the NK succeeds. This narrowing down of options will help us eliminate her.

On the other hand, we can't learn much by directing gera's doctor shot.

[Psyche]

If gera is scum and i kill titus while she rbs kay, here's the worst case scenario:

D3
currently 6v2
we lim in the unconfirmed -- maybe gera,
he flips scum, 6v1

N3
i shoot titus
titus is town and roleblocks kay -- fails to interrupt a night kill. could be because she missed scum, but also could be because scum have a way around a roleblock.
someone among the confirmed -- maybe me! -- flips town, 4v1

D4
4v1, NOT a mislim or lose scenario. we have two lims until we lose!
there is 1 scum in the 3 surviving unconfirmed of {hutao, ari, kayjayqueue}
town knows that titus is a roleblocker who targetted kay

potential explanations for the NK's success:
- kay is scum but got around Titus's roleblock (unlikely)
- hutao is scum
- ari is scum

So kay is softconfirmed town. She might be scum, but probably isn't.
We win because we can eliminate ari and then hutao OR eliminate hutao then ari without losing.

my conclusion: i should shoot titus tonight instead of ari/hutao

[Aristeia]

if titus is mafia she is almost certainly a mafia roleblocker and will block you

the only world where your shot goes off is if Titus is town or you're aiming at town.

[Psyche]

that's maybe another reason to aim at her!
but yeah ill redo the thinking

[Psyche]

interesting factor: a jailkeeper could both stop titus's RB and prevent my kill if i target titus

[Psyche]

If gera is scum and my kill fails while titus is a scum roleblocker, here's the worst case scenario:

D3
currently 6v2
we lim in the unconfirmed -- maybe gera,
he flips scum, 6v1

N3
i target titus, but my kill attempt fails
titus maybe roleblocks kay -- fails to interrupt a night kill because {scum-kay has a way around a roleblock} OR {titus is scum and RBd me}
someone among the confirmed -- maybe me! -- flips town, 5v1

D4
5v1, we have two lims until we lose!
there is 1 scum in the 4 surviving unconfirmed of {hutao, ari, kayjayqueue, titus}

potential explanations for the NK's success + failed vig:
- titus is scum and RB'd me
- kay is scum but got around Titus's roleblock AND interrupted my kill (jailkeeper)
- hutao is scum and RB'd me
- ari is scum and RB'd me

So kay is softconfirmed town. She might be scum jailkeeper, but that's it.
Win is no longer guaranteed, since town can mislim twice (e.g., ari then hutao).

[Psyche]

while it's possible, i don't think it's

especially

likely that titus is a roleblocker under the scenario where she's scum
the main thing is that scum must have known that dannflor wouldn't report a PR result/action the next day
lots of roles can do this -- e.g., rolecop, jailkeeper, tracker, gunsmith, motion detector, etc.
and that information could have been gained from another slot, too -- e.g., gera

the jailkeeper possibility is a little scary. mafia jailkeepers are apparently uncommon though. and i don't think it actually accounts for town power that well here given that it would actually make my vig role more powerful by sometimes keeping me from shooting an ally (the scenario where i vigshot the same person that mafia are jailkeeping). if town is very powerful, datisi would assign scum roles that are more reliably pro-scum.
so my leaning is that we should ignore the scenario.

[Psyche]

im thinking we should end the day by next page

[Aristeia]

i think you're using way too much effort on what if gera is mafia and not enough on who the team is if gera is town.

[Aristeia]

i guess i just expected to talk about reads and how the game worked and like who you think is mafia instead of night action mechanics for 5 pages its so boring.

[Psyche]

i have spent a lot of posts obsessing over this, but ultimately it feels as difficult (and pointless?) as imagining a game where NAS is town did yesterday
in that scenario, i think me and titus just make our best guess with our night abilities and then the town has to decide across the 3 (or 4) unconfirmed still alive.
i should be a little cagey about who i'll shoot in that scenario. it's probably obvious that it won't be kay and that i'm definitely pondering hutao, but that's as far as i should probably go.

[Psyche]

i can give you pro/cons for each read though? since im sort of mixed on everyone i guess it won't actually be that telling for predicting my shot

[Psyche]

What gave it away?

you jumping off naerys to vote PC even though you thought she was lockscum
you not really re-evaluating after naerys elim
your "scumread" of PC that just mysteriously vanished for no reason
you buddying Random Nurse because he has the awareness level of head of cabbage
you showing absolutely no fustration with RN whatsoever despite him just being completely delusional
you not voting me even though you're posturing you think I'm mafia
you defending titus/drew on lol grounds and never re-evaluating the slot after they had the shadiest wagon hop on ever into Naerys
you never re-evaluating the Naerys read even though she did like thirteen different contortions
you cared too much on the initial push on d1

can someone outside ari/hutao help clarify if there's anything to any of the charges levied here? i guess ideally kay would do it but i would never be so bold to ask a specific person

I think this shows Ari is highly likely to be town.
However
I think these postulations are inaccurate and/or forcing reads to fit the narrative of the specific theory. I UNDERSTAND Ari’s getting from point A to B and making this list but she’s pushing her personal feelings about some of these situations onto Hu. We can’t largely base scum theories on why someone is doing something/it being different from what one person would do/is doing/is feeling in the same situation. I believe a lot of this was fueled by emotion and wanting to find a scumtell or 5.

re: kay, i think this is an example of a pretty convincing post as far as townreading goes. the question sort of came out of the blue and offered an out for her to pass on it. she didn't need to reply, she didn't need to go into this much detail, she didn't need to make an actual substantive contribution -- she could've played "i'm not sure" and done a review of pros/cons. instead, she outright townread you and then critically analyzed your post anyway. hard to imagine coming from scum, particularly a newbie. all but impossible for me.

[Psyche]

could you have managed a reply like 2172 as scum?