Mini Normal 2329: complex. [game over!]

[Psyche]

gera's claim is scummy too! it's tough to imagine that he wouldn't used his shot N1 or N2.
and his disengagement following his tepid defense of critique is also suspicious. even when i tried to give him a chance to engage w the game beyond arguing his read is credible, he passed.
i do think we don't have to worry too much about the scenario where he's town.
gerascum is worth betting the game on! and we can rest easy knowing just that

[Random Nurse]

Let's launch gera.

Psyche, are you open to Vig'ing Titus? If not who? If you get roleblocked are you going to suspect Titus?

[Random Nurse]

How possible is it that PC could be Scum?

10%?

I trust you all to know about the ins and outs of this but is there literally any possible way I’m given a “PC is aligned with the town” if he’s not actually town? I assumed it was a 100% confirmation.

This assumes you're not lying.

It is very well possible Scum could have that Informed modifier, and that PC could still be Town.

Or you're both Scum.

[Psyche]

I'm fine with yeeting Gera if you don't want to talk further.

I was just really annoyed you thought that was a good post when it was full of vague word salad nonsense and tried to discredit me by claiming I'm being emotional or whatever

it's still a newbie in the end.
my opinion about your take would be that you're evalling too much on whether it's a good post rather than the likelihood that it could have come from scum.
but idk! even if kay turns out to be town i think we'll be divided on how to interpret posts like that one

[Aristeia]

if kay is mafia with hu tao why wouldnt she decide to defend hu tao like that

[Aristeia]

just because shes a newbie to mafia doesnt mean she doesnt know how to discredit people? the entire paragraph could be lifted from a completely different subject matter altogether. in fact little if any of it has to even do with playing mafia.

[Psyche]

Let's launch gera.

Psyche, are you open to Vig'ing Titus? If not who? If you get roleblocked are you going to suspect Titus?

This is really important for you to know:

I

will

shoot Titus if gera flips scum. If my kill resolves and the game continues, you'll know she really was a town roleblocker.
If my kill doesn't resolve, then I was interrupted somehow, and you won't know if it was her ability or another player's.

Titus is committed to roleblocking KayJayQueue.
If the roleblock resolves and kayjayqueue is scum, then no NK will happen. You will know kayjayqueue is scum and can win from there!

If an NK

does

happen, then there are three possibilities:
- Titus did not really roleblock kay (and is scum)
- Kay is scum and sidestepped the roleblock somehow
- Someone besides kay is scum and performed the kill!

But if I also succeed at killing Titus and revealing she is a town roleblocker, then there are fewer possibilities:
- Kay is scum and sidestepped the roleblock somehow
- Someone besides kay is scum and performed the kill!

You should townread kay more strongly tomorrow if the NK happens and Titus is flipped town.
This is because kayscum only avoids being roleblocked under very specific, and unlikely, conditions in that scenario.
That means you should spend D4 and D5 limming whomever is still alive of the unconfirmed players.

Since I am shooting titus and we are limming gera, in this scenario those living players you should lim are Hutao and Ari. In whichever order you want!

[Aristeia]

I just happened to be browsing the banned announcements and checked out Gamma's ban and noticed something pretty interesting

[Aristeia]

viewtopic.php?p=14043610#p14043610

^ this post is what Gamma got banned for

in this game Hu Tao(Scum) basically baited Gamma Emerald(Town) into an emotional over-reaction to fuck around with her

and it reminds me of how Kay claimed I'm being "emotional" in order to discredit me when I responded to Hu Tao's taunting

[Psyche]

How possible is it that PC could be Scum?

10%?

I trust you all to know about the ins and outs of this but is there literally any possible way I’m given a “PC is aligned with the town” if he’s not actually town? I assumed it was a 100% confirmation.

This assumes you're not lying.

It is very well possible Scum could have that Informed modifier, and that PC could still be Town.

Or you're both Scum.

I'll walk through this too.

Hu Tao has claimed that she used a gunsmith ability on PC and found he is a VT.
Before that, kay claimed that she was passively informed on N2 that PC is a VT.

There are two scum alive, so zero, one, or two people are lying right now.
If both Hu Tao and Kay are lying about their roles, then PC is still town because there are only two scum alive -- the two liars.
But maybe one of Hu Tao and Kay are scum and lying about their roles! PC is still town because the player among Hutao and Kay who is not lying really

does

know that PC is town.
Under all possible scenarios, PC is town. Even in the scenario where Hutao and Kay are both fakeclaiming.

[Aristeia]

I think there is a fairly decent chance Hu Tao is just mafia who enjoys fucking with town who are clearly upset about something because it's enjoyable to her and she knows that provoking emotional over-reactions is a good way to discredit people

[Psyche]

also: if tomorrow hutao says she scanned kay N3 and got a scum result, she is

lying

gotta put that out there

[Aristeia]

do you really think hu tao is a gun smith who wanted to self yeet on day one

[Psyche]

i have raised this suspicion after hutao's claim and she has done her best to answer it. will avoid weighing in on it while gera could be town.

[Aristeia]

if gera flips town will you vig hu tao at least

[Psyche]

think town's chances are maxed out in that scenario if i don't commit to a specific shot tonight under the geratown scenario

[Aristeia]

ok would you recommend we vote out hu tao tommorrow if gera flips town here

[Aristeia]

how about this

if gera flips town

you vig me

im town.

nobody will stop you

then after i flip town

listen to me and flip hu tao and kay

[Random Nurse]

No vig Titus.

[Aristeia]

also vig + gunsmith + informed townie + bulletproof ic that cant be killed until n3 is way too many clears for a 13p normal

[Aristeia]

like this setup makes absolutely zero sense on balance.

[Aristeia]

like find me a single mini normal witb 4 potential clearing sources. i really doubt any exist.

[Random Nurse]

also vig + gunsmith + informed townie + bulletproof ic that cant be killed until n3 is way too many clears for a 13p normal

like this setup makes absolutely zero sense on balance.

That's what I'm thinking.

With a BP IC I find it tough to believe there's an Informed townies that clears another player.

[Psyche]

like we can imagine a situation under geratown where scum has to decide tonight between disrupting titus's action and disrupting my action. we want to make that choice as hard as possible

still: under geratown, if my kill succeeds, town's chances of being right will be 2/3. my strategy then would be to reflect on how N3 went, choose the townread you trust most, and then don't vote them out.

if my kill fails, it's 50/50.
but for you, it's not 50/50. you know you're town, or you're scum.
possible solves are titus/hutao, kay/hutao, titus/kay.
i strongly prefer the solve without kay, so if i were in your shoes and town, i'd be pushing the titus/hutao solve. maybe compromise with me for a day and save kay for later.
still, titus probably gets the most attention at that point, even has a result to report.

[Aristeia]

also hu tao claimed gunsmith after saying she wanted to be yeeted on d1 and we should sheep her on naerys the next day

this makes no sense to do.