Mini Normal 2329: complex. [game over!]

[Political Clout]

looks like kay is the consensus townread. so we are probably safe as long as that read is correct.
if PC/RN can commit to playing along those lines and agree, then we can just decide to let the victory go to kay, whatever her alliance is.

the safe play is to kill kay here. since they were roleblocked and no kill came through. the question isn't wether kay is town read the question is do you believe hu tao's case on town kay or are you town reading kay because of other reasons and for sure believe kay is town. if you do I would like to hear it.

[Aristeia]

looks like kay is the consensus townread. so we are probably safe as long as that read is correct.
if PC/RN can commit to playing along those lines and agree, then we can just decide to let the victory go to kay, whatever her alliance is.

this is why i wanted you to vig me

[Psyche]

aristeia seemed to scumlean gera earlier in the game but now seems to nullread. is this an accurate characterization? if so, what changed?

why do you townread hu tao

hmm. unfortunate reply

[Psyche]

looks like kay is the consensus townread. so we are probably safe as long as that read is correct.
if PC/RN can commit to playing along those lines and agree, then we can just decide to let the victory go to kay, whatever her alliance is.

the safe play is to kill kay here. since they were roleblocked and no kill came through. the question isn't wether kay is town read the question is do you believe hu tao's case on town kay or are you town reading kay because of other reasons and for sure believe kay is town. if you do I would like to hear it.

my thinking is that unfortunately, there's really no way to get any information from the lack of an NK.
even if the NK were disrupted rather than declined, kay could still be town, as this would maximize the ambiguity of our decision today.

[Psyche]

story of the game has been me getting ahead of myself at night and then being ridiculously self-doubting through the day. such a shame.

[Political Clout]

looks like kay is the consensus townread. so we are probably safe as long as that read is correct.
if PC/RN can commit to playing along those lines and agree, then we can just decide to let the victory go to kay, whatever her alliance is.

the safe play is to kill kay here. since they were roleblocked and no kill came through. the question isn't wether kay is town read the question is do you believe hu tao's case on town kay or are you town reading kay because of other reasons and for sure believe kay is town. if you do I would like to hear it.

my thinking is that unfortunately, there's really no way to get any information from the lack of an NK.
even if the NK were disrupted rather than declined, kay could still be town, as this would maximize the ambiguity of our decision today.

the only way nk was disrupted would be by titus which means kay is scum

if it was declined it would be hu tao or ari.

if we are thinking kay is town then we're thinking it's between hu tao or ari.

[Psyche]

maybe you're getting at something. let me think some more

[Aristeia]

this game is pretty much solved already by mech

you can look at every completed mini normal if you don't believe me.

[Psyche]

looks like kay is the consensus townread. so we are probably safe as long as that read is correct.
if PC/RN can commit to playing along those lines and agree, then we can just decide to let the victory go to kay, whatever her alliance is.

the safe play is to kill kay here. since they were roleblocked and no kill came through. the question isn't wether kay is town read the question is do you believe hu tao's case on town kay or are you town reading kay because of other reasons and for sure believe kay is town. if you do I would like to hear it.

my thinking is that unfortunately, there's really no way to get any information from the lack of an NK.
even if the NK were disrupted rather than declined, kay could still be town, as this would maximize the ambiguity of our decision today.

the only way nk was disrupted would be by titus which means kay is scum

if it was declined it would be hu tao or ari.

if we are thinking kay is town then we're thinking it's between hu tao or ari.

so scenarios for N3...
titus RB succeeded and kayjayqueue NK was disrupted
titus RB failed and kayjayqueue NK was declined
hu tao declined NK
aristeia declined NK

is there any way we can discount one of these scenarios?

[Psyche]

The scenario that looks the most attractive to me for discounting is "titus RB failed and kayjayqueue NK was declined". Does anyone else agree?

[Psyche]

Add an NK among the confirmed to tonight's outcomes.
If we look from town perspective, what changes about our reads?
My thinking, carried over from yesterday, is that we probably townread kay more.
And also, one of the confirmed players is dead
so scumkay has every reason to use her kill if an NK happened

But this doesn't seem to help us. Assume titus RB succeeded. The remaining scenarios seem indistinguishable without reads:

kayjayqueue NK was disrupted
hu tao declined NK
aristeia declined NK

[Political Clout]

looks like kay is the consensus townread. so we are probably safe as long as that read is correct.
if PC/RN can commit to playing along those lines and agree, then we can just decide to let the victory go to kay, whatever her alliance is.

the safe play is to kill kay here. since they were roleblocked and no kill came through. the question isn't wether kay is town read the question is do you believe hu tao's case on town kay or are you town reading kay because of other reasons and for sure believe kay is town. if you do I would like to hear it.

my thinking is that unfortunately, there's really no way to get any information from the lack of an NK.
even if the NK were disrupted rather than declined, kay could still be town, as this would maximize the ambiguity of our decision today.

the only way nk was disrupted would be by titus which means kay is scum

if it was declined it would be hu tao or ari.

if we are thinking kay is town then we're thinking it's between hu tao or ari.

so scenarios for N3...
titus RB succeeded and kayjayqueue NK was disrupted
titus RB failed and kayjayqueue NK was declined
hu tao declined NK
aristeia declined NK

is there any way we can discount one of these scenarios?

the claims so far that we know are

roleblocker
vig
mafia doctor
mafia bulletproof immune
ic

claims that haven't flipped are
gunsmith
informed townie

we can maybe assume the gs claim is real based on the vig and mafia doctor

we cannot be certain about the informed townie.

I don't see kjq coming up with the informed role...

Is it even real role? I've never come across something like it before

gera had this to say about it. we should look at geras game to see if this is true. if it is gera and kay don't have high scum equity together? maybe. since nas is new and so is kay. gera also true claimed his role so he might not be used to being scum.

[Psyche]

I'm so confident Naerys flips scum this game. Eliminate me and vote her out tomorrow. I agree with this.

VOTE: hu tao

She's contradicting herself. She does this as scum. She literally I'd saying the thing she did as town last game is now scummy when I do it.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Self-voting

VOTE: Hu Tao

No idea what this means

It's explained in the wiki article. It's a common scumtell.

still don't know how people let NAS get away with this
i feel like this is another reason to just tr hutao

[Psyche]

vote count 1.04

with 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2024-03-04 01:00:00).

yeet

Hu Tao [4]:

Naerys, Klick, Aristeia, Dannflor

Psyche [2]:

Doctor Drew, geraintm

Klick [2]:

davesaz, Political Clout

Political Clout [1]:

Psyche

NotAScum [1]:

Hu Tao

not voting [3]:

Random Nurse

, NotAScum, KayJayQueue

mod notes

meep

flavour

I'm so confident Naerys flips scum this game. Eliminate me and vote her out tomorrow. I agree with this.

VOTE: hu tao

She's contradicting herself. She does this as scum. She literally I'd saying the thing she did as town last game is now scummy when I do it.

dann unvoted after this
i think i'm reasonably confident that NAS was just going for a lim here -- and not a bus

[Psyche]

also, if this vote was just distancing from his bro hutao,
then hutao would have emphasized the vote more in her various "why i am confirmed town" posts these past couple days

so hutao really is pretty much cleared for me

[Psyche]

Game is solved if Hutao can stay alive? Hutao, you're never getting limmed this game, right?

[Psyche]

looks like kay is the consensus townread. so we are probably safe as long as that read is correct.
if PC/RN can commit to playing along those lines and agree, then we can just decide to let the victory go to kay, whatever her alliance is.

the safe play is to kill kay here. since they were roleblocked and no kill came through. the question isn't wether kay is town read the question is do you believe hu tao's case on town kay or are you town reading kay because of other reasons and for sure believe kay is town. if you do I would like to hear it.

my thinking is that unfortunately, there's really no way to get any information from the lack of an NK.
even if the NK were disrupted rather than declined, kay could still be town, as this would maximize the ambiguity of our decision today.

the only way nk was disrupted would be by titus which means kay is scum

if it was declined it would be hu tao or ari.

if we are thinking kay is town then we're thinking it's between hu tao or ari.

so scenarios for N3...
titus RB succeeded and kayjayqueue NK was disrupted
titus RB failed and kayjayqueue NK was declined
hu tao declined NK
aristeia declined NK

is there any way we can discount one of these scenarios?

the claims so far that we know are

roleblocker
vig
mafia doctor
mafia bulletproof immune
ic

claims that haven't flipped are
gunsmith
informed townie

we can maybe assume the gs claim is real based on the vig and mafia doctor

we cannot be certain about the informed townie.

I don't see kjq coming up with the informed role...

Is it even real role? I've never come across something like it before

gera had this to say about it. we should look at geras game to see if this is true. if it is gera and kay don't have high scum equity together? maybe. since nas is new and so is kay. gera also true claimed his role so he might not be used to being scum.

Okay, let's assume the GS claim is real. I am game for that. It's 4 alive tomorrow. Who do we leave hutao alive with?

[Psyche]

Since you and RN both are willing to lim kay, I guess it's safest if we lim ari now after all? She wanted to be vigged anyway -- maybe we correct the mistake now?

[Psyche]

i can't look at any of their isos without wanting to start over from scratch

[Political Clout]

Since you and RN both are willing to lim kay, I guess it's safest if we lim ari now after all? She wanted to be vigged anyway -- maybe we correct the mistake now?

sure that's fine with me.

[Aristeia]

or we can just lim kay today

[Aristeia]

I do wish people would listen to me like just once this game

that would be nice

[Political Clout]

or we can just lim kay today

I'm fine with either or

[Psyche]

I do wish people would listen to me like just once this game

that would be nice

well kay dies tomorrow if you're town. good enough for you?

[Aristeia]

the claims so far that we know are

roleblocker
vig
mafia doctor
mafia bulletproof immune
ic

claims that haven't flipped are
gunsmith
informed townie

we can maybe assume the gs claim is real based on the vig and mafia doctor

we cannot be certain about the informed townie.

for people to believe that there exists in this game:

Vigilante
Gunsmith
IC[Bulletproof Edition]
Informed Townie.

you would have to believe that on Day Three, Town can wake up with four clears [Vig, Gunsmith Inno, IC, Whoever the Informed townie clears]

which is pretty unreasonable for a mini normal

and on top of all this - town also has a roleblocker that can disrupt the mafia nightkill.

this is not a possible setup that can pass review.

You can look at all the mini normals that have already been played you will not find a single one where town can have four clears on day three because its basically unplayable for the mafia.

if you refuse to even do that I'm p much town by play.

if you still refuse to listen to me I guess you can kill me and then flip kay.

or like just listen to me and flip kay.