Mini Normal 2327: Bird Species (Game Over)

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Post Post #21 (isolation #0) » Fri Feb 16, 2024 4:25 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 16, Black wrote: VOTE: Snow

Let's melt this noob

(Welcome to the site! :])
Thank you Black. I take from your welcoming message that this is a very friendly and enjoyable place!
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Post Post #30 (isolation #1) » Fri Feb 16, 2024 4:39 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 18, gob wrote: VOTE: black

Lets get rid of Black. Unironically. She is a good scum player and too hard to catch.
Is she also a good town player? If no, your point makes sense. If yes, we can give her a chance and execute only if there are no other options.

Seriously. She has been good and friendly to me so far and I don't want to eliminate her without reason.
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Post Post #56 (isolation #2) » Fri Feb 16, 2024 5:11 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 45, Naerys wrote:
In post 44, Aristeia wrote: I'm asking you why you're assuming he's town who wants to kill you for being good at mafia rather than mafia trying to push you for an excuse
good point, Aristeia feels towny thanks to this post
agree
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Post Post #57 (isolation #3) » Fri Feb 16, 2024 5:15 am

Post by Snow2697 »

BTW, is there anything we deduce from the text on Snowy Owl?
3 threats (human activity, climate change, decline in species they hunt) = 3 scums?
Or based on your experience here it's just a text with no hints?
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Post Post #110 (isolation #4) » Fri Feb 16, 2024 9:05 am

Post by Snow2697 »

Will we have a morning newspaper/description with night events or smth like that? Or just "X is dead".
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Post Post #116 (isolation #5) » Fri Feb 16, 2024 9:24 am

Post by Snow2697 »

My take on this. Don't know players here. See 4 votes vs Black and 2 votes vs Got. Don't think that previous games or bad feelings are valid elimination reasons. Even if one lost a game before, let's respect scum game. Look, we all will be scums at some point.
So, not ready to vote vs Black due to this. But I accept that sometimes players vote or take other steps at game start based on previous games. May be I am guilty for this too!
See a couple of other conflicts, but cannot take side in those. Tend to vote for "no elimination".
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Post Post #118 (isolation #6) » Fri Feb 16, 2024 9:30 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 114, Hu Tao wrote:
In post 110, Snow2697 wrote: Will we have a morning newspaper/description with night events or smth like that? Or just "X is dead".
How familiar are you with the game of mafia? Like besides this site?
Used to play classic face-to-face mafia (10 persons). Liked it, but could not afford late night parties. Played around 5 forum mafia games recently with different rules and set-up.
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Post Post #119 (isolation #7) » Fri Feb 16, 2024 9:32 am

Post by Snow2697 »

VOTE: [/no elimination]
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Post Post #124 (isolation #8) » Fri Feb 16, 2024 10:23 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 121, SmileyDude1 wrote:
In post 119, Snow2697 wrote:
VOTE: [/no elimination]
In general it's worse for town to no-eliminate.

This is probs not the best explanation as to why, but think of the elimination as a town-controlled killing source. Scum have the ability to kill players during the night eliminating from the game and getting them one step closer to winning by doing so. Given that most of us here are town the elimination serves as a way to counter scum night-kills given that the town can generally agree on who scum is. Therefore it's going to be a bad idea to forgo that in most situations as town.
Right, but this is now an overly random voting (at least for me). I have never played a forum mafia game where people voted before night 1. Hope we will have more date at day 2.
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Post Post #130 (isolation #9) » Fri Feb 16, 2024 10:38 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 128, gob wrote: Look i hate to break the news to you Snow but… Black was probably pre-pocketing you. She was nice so you dont lim her in these exact scenarios.
Don't worry Gob, I will be careful with Black...
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Post Post #137 (isolation #10) » Fri Feb 16, 2024 10:57 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 131, Hu Tao wrote:
In post 119, Snow2697 wrote:
VOTE: [/no elimination]
Why do you think this is the best option?
No info on night moves. Don't know people. Town won't lose if no one is eliminated at night 1. Seems like best option for me under circumstances.
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Post Post #154 (isolation #11) » Fri Feb 16, 2024 10:41 pm

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 149, SirCakez wrote:
In post 115, Hu Tao wrote:
In post 113, shaddowez wrote:
In post 105, Hu Tao wrote: I think cakes vote seemed weird though. And nurses post seemed forced that I quoted. I'm fine with either of them being the elimination so far
What do you find weird about the cakes vote? Do you still think that in context of their interactions?
Just that he says he's sheeping gob, but gobs vote really was just based off past experiences not this game
gob is that good, I had to sheep him
Why do you think Gob is town, not scum?
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Post Post #157 (isolation #12) » Sat Feb 17, 2024 2:20 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 133, Hu Tao wrote: Never mind my question, this answers it. Do you find anyone that seems fake so far?
I don't like votes vs Black.
Gob started with previous experience (looked like a fear or revenge vote for me), but then read Black's text(s) as scummy (I don't).
Cakez switch votes from T1 to Black (no matter whom to lim? smells scummy for me) explaining that he followed Gob (I usually don't follow others that early, some people do, so alright, but why not wait until Gob's vote if it is so authoritative?), but then claimed that Black is scummy (again, don't see it).
Other 2 votes (NotAScum and T1) with little to no reasons. Interestingly T1 did not target Cakez for quick vote switch, but also went after Black.

If Black is townie, can there be 3 scums in this group of 4? Unlikely. 2 scums? Yes, may be. But probably at least 1 scum there.
If Black is scum, can there be 2 scums in this group? Quite unlikely. 1 scum - may be, to distance from Black. No scums - also possible.

There is a reasonable chance that in any scenario we have at least 1 scum between these 4, but there can also be none (as well as 2), so I don't think that this warrant a change in my vote.

Things here seem to rest on how we see Black. OMGUS arguments against her don't look plausible. She has not switched her vote to one of those 4. (I would have probably done so had I been in her position.) Why has not she? Townie who wants to test people's reaction to this train? Scum who doesn't want to attack the train, since there is (are) fellow scum(s) there? All quite speculative at this stage.

Travelling for the rest of the day, so will not be until late at night.
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Post Post #375 (isolation #13) » Mon Feb 19, 2024 9:29 pm

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 331, gob wrote:
In post 330, Black wrote: How confident are you that I'm scum?
like 50/50

I am more so just removing you to avoid the headache.
A 50/50 scum for me is someone neutral, neither scum nor town. Do I take it right that you have abandoned your case that she is scum?
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Post Post #376 (isolation #14) » Mon Feb 19, 2024 9:31 pm

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 154, Snow2697 wrote:
In post 149, SirCakez wrote:
In post 115, Hu Tao wrote:
In post 113, shaddowez wrote:
In post 105, Hu Tao wrote: I think cakes vote seemed weird though. And nurses post seemed forced that I quoted. I'm fine with either of them being the elimination so far
What do you find weird about the cakes vote? Do you still think that in context of their interactions?
Just that he says he's sheeping gob, but gobs vote really was just based off past experiences not this game
gob is that good, I had to sheep him
Why do you think Gob is town, not scum?
Cakez, why do you think Gob is town, not scum, and is worth following?
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Post Post #377 (isolation #15) » Mon Feb 19, 2024 11:11 pm

Post by Snow2697 »

A couple of thoughts. Sorry for this long post. First, description of moves as I see then.

1 - Black wrote about Gob:
Post Post #199 (ISO) » Sun Feb 18, 2024 9:37 pm
If he's scum then I think one of NotAScum/T3 is also scum helping with the push

2 - STD revoked his vote vs Gob, so Gob had only 1 vote then.
Post Post #202 (ISO) » Mon Feb 19, 2024 1:41 am
VOTE: no elimination

3 - SmileyDude1 and Naerys criticized T3.

4 - Black voted vs T3 with no additional reasons.
Post Post #222 (ISO) » Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:39 pm
VOTE: T3

5 - after some exchange Black switched vote to Gob
Post Post #236 (ISO) » Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:45 pm
Actually yeah I don't think gob says this if he's town. No shot
Both scum wins I got against gob recently he claimed his teammates threw the game. He didn't give me or the other scum any credit at all. And now suddenly he's trying to act like he thinks I'm some scary scum player that needs to go immediately
VOTE: gob

6 - then Black asked STD to join her vs Gob, e.g.
Post Post #241 (ISO) » Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:02 pm
Help me fade gob

7 - STD returned his vote vs Gob, Gob had 3 votes
Post Post #263 (ISO) » Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:46 pm
VOTE: gob

8 - Naerys unvoted Gob
Post Post #266 (ISO) » Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:48 pm
UNVOTE:

9 - Aristeia wrote to Black that "if you're mafia your scumteam would be like one of t3/notascum[leaning towards NAS] and maybe hu tao?" and then "I really doubt STD/Black are S/S from their interactions"

10 - STD unvoted Gob
Post Post #283 (ISO) » Mon Feb 19, 2024 9:04 pm
...
VOTE: no lim

11 - Black asked Aristeia "Why didn't you help me push either of them when I voted for them"

So:
- I don't understand why Black did not criticize Cakez in 1.
- I didn't quite like her vote vs T3 in 3. She called T3 a possible scum assuming Gob is scum. But she goes after T3, not Gob. I read it as an attempt to build a train vs T3. By then Gob had only 1 vote (Naerys) and SmileyDude1 with Naerys already criticized T3. Would be reasonable to assume that a train vs Gob would not succeed and T3 is a more promising target.
- Not sure I understand her switch to Gob in 5. No further votes vs T3, thus let's return to Gob?
- She then pressed for votes vs Gob. After reaching 3 votes, Gob's train collapsed.
- But her phrase in 11 suggests that she was ready to push NotAScum as well. Again ignoring Cakez.
- If Black is town, her moves can be explained. E.g. she did not quite care whom to target from her opponents, since she felt unsafe herself. But I cannot explain her silence on Cakez. Especially when Cakez switched votes and did not answer questions on "why Black is scum" and "why Gob is town and worth following".
- If Black is scum, Cakez could be her fellow scum. Or a town whom she wished to bring on her side.
- I would not exclude completely that Black and Cakez are both scums. For instance, after Black and Gob had 4/3 votes, Gob wrote a post which could be read as an attempt to somewhat ease the tension.
Post #265 (ISO) » Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:48 pm
i know youre good and i respect you and your play. I dont really disrepect anyones play tbh. Even though i think im the best ofc.
- Another thing is why train vs Gob has collapsed so quickly.

Black, can you comment on the above?
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Post Post #570 (isolation #16) » Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:50 pm

Post by Snow2697 »

I was away, so sorry for radio silence. Will read the threads and write my thoughts today.
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Post Post #590 (isolation #17) » Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:23 am

Post by Snow2697 »

My set-up so far.

Black - neutral. Disagree with her on some things. Primarily her interpretation of her wagon and Cakez. But she can have her views. Can be town or scum.

Gob - neutral, but somewhat more scummy than Black. Defended Cakez and T3, though seems ready to change mind on Cakez. Someone said he can act scummy even if town, don't think this has been disputed. Liked a couple of his posts. Was consistently on train vs Black until it became more or less clear that it won't succeed. Vis-a-vis Black: both can be town or one of them can be scum, both can be scums (though less likely).

Aristeia - neutral. I have changed view on her #44. At first I thought it to be a townie message. Now I think it was rather an anti-Black move (read her #38, #40 and then #44 increasing pressure) which (not Gob's opening) actually led to a train on Black. Only Gob's vote before and 4 thereafter. I also read her #279 as another push on Black. Vis-a-vis Black: likely one of them is scum, both can be town (less likely), both unlikely to be scums.

Cakez - most scummy IMO. Described why don't like his vote vs Black. Now he voted with Black (whom he thought was scum) against T3 (with whom he voted vs Black herself) while Gob (whom he followed vs Black and who, he said, is good, thinks T3 is town). Does not make a lot of sense to me. Think that there is at least 1 scum between him and T3.

T3 - scummy. Interestingly the only person who voted vs him and with whom he takes issue is Cakez. Can be ignorant townie trying to defend. Can be scum with Cakez trying to distance from him.
Note that Cakez gave, I think, the 3rd vote vs T3 based on ISO. T3 also agreed that his ISO is bad. So, both can be scums, who decided that Cakez should go against T3. Though both Cakez and T3 as scums can be too good to be true.

Hu Tao - townish. Liked her votes vs Cakez and T3. PLayed vs NotAScum. Defended Black.

NotAScum - neutral. Very inactive. Can be lurking scum.

Random Nurse - neutral. Inactive. Can be lurking scum.

Naerys - townish. Not very active, but agree with some things she said. Seemed to defend Black vs Gob, disliked T3 in the beginning.

Save The Dragons - townish. I actually like his reading of Aristeia's #44, which differed from mine then. Did not go vs Black, but did not quite join her vs Gob. Felt his "no-elim" vote at that stage was a thoughful decision.

Shaddowez - townish. Liked his reading of Aristeia's #44. Most townish players for me with STD.

SmileyDude1 - townish.
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Post Post #618 (isolation #18) » Sat Feb 24, 2024 4:53 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 615, Hu Tao wrote: I'm still fine with t3 but I'm okay switching if needed.

Snow who do you scumread the most?
I've set out my thoughts in #590.
In brief, Cakez seems most scummy to me followed by T3, but 2 scums there can be overly optimistic. Also Black and Aristeia look neutral, but I think there is 1 scum between them.
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Post Post #637 (isolation #19) » Sun Feb 25, 2024 3:20 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 636, gob wrote: Seems like we should lim one of me and black to get the most out of today.
Do you think that you cannot co-exist with Black in this game?
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Post Post #668 (isolation #20) » Sun Feb 25, 2024 8:23 am

Post by Snow2697 »

I liked post 666 by Gob.
I felt T3 is scummy, since Cakez voted for him and then switched to Black (scummy IMO), but T3 did not criticize Cakez for this and rather joined him vs Black.
What I liked in particular about Gob's post is that Gob has an option in mind that I am scum. I ISOed all posts a while ago, including mine. Felt that I can be seen townish, but that I really did not do anything to be 100% town. I had even a thought that those who call me town might be buying me.
Gob - do you agree that Aristeia was pushing Black and that there is a scum between Black and her? So that we can limit "RN/Shaddowez/Black/Ari" pool to "Black/Ari"?
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Post Post #669 (isolation #21) » Sun Feb 25, 2024 8:23 am

Post by Snow2697 »

BTW how do you make a clickable link to "post number"?
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Post Post #679 (isolation #22) » Sun Feb 25, 2024 10:28 am

Post by Snow2697 »

I have considered whether I should change my no-elim position now that there are more moves and data and I have formed a view on which players look scummy.
To put it other way, if I see someone scummy, why don't I vote for his/her elimination.
I have 4 issues here.
1 - Cakez and T3 look scummy to me based on my interpretation of their moves. But if Black is scum, then Cakez and T3 should be credited, not criticized for their votes. Black can be scum and town in my set-up.
2 - If Black is indeed town, a good candidate would be Aristeia. But again, if Black is scum, Aristeia looks very townish for pushing a scum.
3 - I don't like to make a D1 vote where so much depends on the status of one particular player.
4 - another approach can be to vote for a passive player. But I do not think that such a harsh step is required at D1 and that voting for a lurk would give a lot of data.
So, I would keep my no-elim vote unchanged.
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Post Post #683 (isolation #23) » Sun Feb 25, 2024 11:22 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 681, Aristeia wrote:
waiting for the mafia to kill us all is a game losing strat

you need to vote to kill mafia to win

if you do not vote you cannot win
It's my approach for this D1 voting. I don't think that town will loose if no-one is limmed today.
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Post Post #684 (isolation #24) » Sun Feb 25, 2024 11:22 am

Post by Snow2697 »

Will be back in some 6 hrs.
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Post Post #787 (isolation #25) » Wed Feb 28, 2024 5:00 am

Post by Snow2697 »

Agree with Hu Tao that Cakez seems to be a vig kill. First, he got 4 votes at D1. There could have been a push against him at D2. Eg I have thought (mistakenly) that there is a scum between T3 and Cakez. Had Cakez survived, I would have played against him. Second, Cakez kill lets us know that all D1 votes came against towns. This is helpful for our today analysis. Alive Cakez would have made things unclear. Don't see a lot of sense in scums killing Cakez.
If so, this leaves us with a scum shot on Ari. She was pushing Black. An attempt by scums to help scum Black (or to compromise town Black)?
Don't agree with shaddowez' assumption in [ post] 754 [ /post] that T3 wagon contained 2 scums. It could be that 2 scums were in Cakez wagon (to distance themselves from a mislim) and thus they did not kill Cakez (to play against him) and killed a townie on the T3 train (to compromise other members of the T3 train). I am more inclined to look closer at Cakez wagon for scum search.
Don't quite understand Gob's point in [ post] 757 [ /post]. How is this relevant if both Cakez and T3 were townies?
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Post Post #793 (isolation #26) » Wed Feb 28, 2024 5:32 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 788, shaddowez wrote:
In post 787, Snow2697 wrote: It could be that 2 scums were in Cakez wagon (to distance themselves from a mislim) and thus they did not kill Cakez (to play against him) and killed a townie on the T3 train (to compromise other members of the T3 train). I am more inclined to look closer at Cakez wagon for scum search.
In post 730, Hu Tao wrote: SirCakez (4) - Save the Dragons, T3, Hu Tao, gob
Unless you don't believe gob's claim, you're saying that both StD and Hu are scum, there's no "searching".
I don't rule out that Gob is scum.
Note that he does not suspect voters for Cakez.
BTW same with Black - her suspects are all from T3 wagon.
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Post Post #798 (isolation #27) » Wed Feb 28, 2024 5:38 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 797, Black wrote: Gob can't be scum here
Why?
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Post Post #800 (isolation #28) » Wed Feb 28, 2024 5:44 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 799, Black wrote: There is an unaccounted Vig kill. If gob is lying about being the Vig then the real Vig would counterclaim


Do you read his as claim to be Vig? I have thought from D1 that this is just his eccentric "Gob's" play.
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Post Post #805 (isolation #29) » Wed Feb 28, 2024 5:57 am

Post by Snow2697 »

I am the Vig. I killed Cakez. Gob is scum.

VOTE: Gob
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Post Post #812 (isolation #30) » Wed Feb 28, 2024 6:08 am

Post by Snow2697 »

I tried to explain in my . 2 wagons, one against a townie, need to understand who is on the 2nd for D2 analysis. I have figured out that Cakez would be under fire at D2 anyway.
Don't understand Gob's motive. At first I even did not realise he was claiming Vig's role. Probably to find out who is Vig. But why a scummy me would have made a claim to challenge Gob-Vig if no-one is really pushing me?
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Post Post #815 (isolation #31) » Wed Feb 28, 2024 6:14 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 813, NotAScum wrote: Awfully quick of Black to vote gob without giving the guy a chance to explain. Also I doubt a real vig would outright claim vig when they can just kill the imposter during night
I cannot kill at N2. Had I remained silent and been killed at N2, Gob's claim would have been unchallenged.
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Post Post #817 (isolation #32) » Wed Feb 28, 2024 6:16 am

Post by Snow2697 »

Why did you wait to claim vig? I guess you had to discuss it in the pt first
[/quote]
Don't understand your last sentence.
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Post Post #819 (isolation #33) » Wed Feb 28, 2024 6:20 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 815, Snow2697 wrote: I cannot kill at N2. Had I remained silent and been killed at N2, Gob's claim would have been unchallenged.
Probably wrong at my N2 kill. Had I been killed at N2, my status would have been disclosed and Gob would have been challenged. But yes, cannot kill at N2.
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Post Post #843 (isolation #34) » Wed Feb 28, 2024 7:08 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 842, Naerys wrote:
In post 805, Snow2697 wrote: I am the Vig. I killed Cakez. Gob is scum.

VOTE: Gob
You could have just send him to his funeral at next night, if you are the vig.
No, cannot kill at N2.
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Post Post #872 (isolation #35) » Wed Feb 28, 2024 8:21 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 870, NotAScum wrote: gob makes a lot of tongue in cheek posts. I didn't even take his cakez claim seriously at first
So did I at first. But he did not retract his "kill Cakez" statement. And Black and Shaddowez, may be Hu Tao, seemed to take his statement as a vig claim. So I thought I had to challenge.
BTW, I still consider it possible for Black and Gob to be scums.
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Post Post #874 (isolation #36) » Wed Feb 28, 2024 8:27 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 796, gob wrote: I agree with Black that i think there is wolf on noth wagons.
However, there is 100% a wolf on the mislim wagon. Its possible the Cakez wagon is all green
On Gob's fellow scums, I find it noteworthy that Gob claimed that Cakez wagon can be all green. Makes no sense to me. Why would 2-3 scums in the T3's wagon then kill Ari who was also in that wagon? This would increase the likelihood that a day vote pick from T3's wagon would hit a scum. I find it more likely that at least one Gob's fellow scum is in the Cakez train.
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Post Post #906 (isolation #37) » Wed Feb 28, 2024 6:12 pm

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 905, SmileyDude1 wrote:
In post 902, Save The Dragons wrote: What if there are two vigs who both shot cakez
Had a similar thought earlier today.

It's not impossible for that to have occurred (AFAIK duplicate roles in regular normal games are fine), though I do find it highly unlikely. I feel like double vig in a mini is somewhat rare, and I think in the cases where that does occur it's usually like one odd one even where they can't both shoot within the same night. Then add the odds both shoot into the same person and it very much goes into "have to see it to believe it" category for me
UNVOTE:
Interesting. IMO Cakez was an obvious vig target, so a double vig shot would be very possible. Cakez looked scummy, was target of the 2nd D1 train and would be a D2 candidate anyway.
What troubles me is why would a scum claim a vig role to provoke a CC. Or this can be scum Gob's play? I also did not quite like Black from the D2 exchange.
Will need to think it over. What do others think?
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Post Post #911 (isolation #38) » Wed Feb 28, 2024 7:42 pm

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 907, Naerys wrote: Gob spent day 1 hard pushing Black and then somehow vigs Cakez? I dont see much logic there
There can be some logic.
The set up favours vigging Cakez. There was an initial train on Black, but Cakez and T3 trains happened simultaneously, so Cakez status would be more helpful, and Cakez could be under fire on D2 anyway.
Further, if Gob is vig, I would treat his D1 push on Black more like a fear vote. You can explain a D1 fear vote, but a N1 fear vig kill looks more problematic.
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Post Post #912 (isolation #39) » Wed Feb 28, 2024 7:45 pm

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 910, Random Nurse wrote:
In post 902, Save The Dragons wrote: What if there are two vigs who both shot cakez

I don't like this line of thought.

I don't see how there'd be two Vigs in a 13-player game. Doesn't fit.
Can it be that town has 2 vigs at the expense of lifting another power role?
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Post Post #920 (isolation #40) » Thu Feb 29, 2024 3:04 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 914, SmileyDude1 wrote:
In theory yes, in practice the big problem is both of you are claiming to have shot Cakez here. Skimmed through a good chunk of the mini archives (up through post 7) and while I did see double vig on occasion, in every instance they were gated so that they couldn't both shoot on the same night (and this was looking through a time where what was considered "normal" was less strict than what it is now).

viewtopic.php?t=29549
This is the link, would need to finish skimming later to be sure (have to leave for work in a second), but atm both of you being town vigs that shot the same night seems like it'd be unprecedented. It seems more likely that one of you/gob is just scum here imo
9 theoretical options and my takes on them.

1. We both are vigs killing on N1. Very unlikely.
2. Gob is townie who has decided to cover a real vig. I am a real vig. Would not exclude this.
3. Gob is vig and I am townie who has decided to cover him. N/A.
4. Gob is vig and I am scum. N/A.
5. Gob is townie covering a real vig and I am scum. A real vig or a 2nd killer is in the game. N/A.
6. Gob is scum and I am vig. May be.
7. Gob is scum and I am covering a real vig. A real vig or a 2nd killer is in the game. N/A.
8. We both are scums. A real vig or a 2nd killer is in the game. N/A.
9. Gob is townie on fishing expedition (which leaves me as a real vig/real vig cover/scum). Don't know Gob enough, but sounds a bit eccentric.

Any other options?

I have quickly gone through the link with previous games. If there is a Vig and a scum is killed (presumably by the Vig), then town win/loss ratio is roughly 29/17 games. My biggest issue with scum Gob was his false claim rationale. It can be that after 2 town kills on N1 scums have made a decision to disable a Vig. Though the above town win/loss ratio does not seem to be that big to require a false claim.

My next problem is that, if I take it right, Gob is not playing against me after my CC, but rather attacks Black. And Black wants to lim Gob.
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Post Post #921 (isolation #41) » Thu Feb 29, 2024 3:05 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 917, Black wrote:
In post 916, NotAScum wrote: I seriously doubt there's two vigs in a game of 13. Not saying it's impossible, but the chance is astronomically small. I'm more inclined to believe snow here, mafia are more likely to fake claim first than to counter claim to the real role. But one thing in that case is, other than by guessing, how did gob figure out the vig killed cakez?
If gob is scum then he knows the scum team killed Ari
I do not understand why a vig would kill Ari.
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Post Post #923 (isolation #42) » Thu Feb 29, 2024 3:07 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 921, Snow2697 wrote:
In post 917, Black wrote:
In post 916, NotAScum wrote: I seriously doubt there's two vigs in a game of 13. Not saying it's impossible, but the chance is astronomically small. I'm more inclined to believe snow here, mafia are more likely to fake claim first than to counter claim to the real role. But one thing in that case is, other than by guessing, how did gob figure out the vig killed cakez?
If gob is scum then he knows the scum team killed Ari
I do not understand why a vig would kill Ari.
And equally why scums would kill town T3 who already got trained on D1.
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Post Post #929 (isolation #43) » Thu Feb 29, 2024 3:13 am

Post by Snow2697 »

NotAScum asked a question: "How did gob figure out the vig killed cakez".
You answered this question: "If gob is scum then he knows the scum team killed Ari".
So, your answer assumes that Gob is scum, since otherwise he could not have known who was N1 vig victim.
I disagree with you. There is no reason IMO why scums would kill T3 and why a vig would kill Ari. Therefore an no-vig town Gob could have figured out who killed whom.
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Post Post #940 (isolation #44) » Thu Feb 29, 2024 3:26 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 931, Black wrote:
In post 929, Snow2697 wrote: NotAScum asked a question: "How did gob figure out the vig killed cakez".
You answered this question: "If gob is scum then he knows the scum team killed Ari".
So, your answer assumes that Gob is scum, since otherwise he could not have known who was N1 vig victim.
I disagree with you. There is no reason IMO why scums would kill T3 and why a vig would kill Ari. Therefore an no-vig town Gob could have figured out who killed whom.
If gob is town then he would have had to guess, but I don't think he's town
I see, but the way I have read you is that this Gob's correct guess proves that he is scum. But he could have guessed correctly as non-vig town. This is not rocket science. So, his guess does not prove a lot, it is just your position on Gob from other sources that makes you think he is scum.
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Post Post #941 (isolation #45) » Thu Feb 29, 2024 3:27 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 935, Black wrote:
In post 933, NotAScum wrote: Because some townrole could've 1-2 shot modifier. What is also suspicious is rather than voting snow, gob is voting black. Feels like distancing. Why would a real vig won't vote a fake vig? There's something else going on here
You don't seem to be considering the possibility that scum!gob wants to push town!me because Snow is a gated Vig that can't shoot tonight. He's not as big of a threat. The scum team still needs to figure out who the other town PRs are so it makes perfect sense for scum!gob to try and push me up to a claim here
With this I agree, this is a real possibility.
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Post Post #942 (isolation #46) » Thu Feb 29, 2024 3:29 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 938, Black wrote: Regardless, if you were actually a Vig here you would have shot me. 1000% no question. You spewed all that crap about me being too good as scum and being afraid of me and saying I absolutely have to die because I'm a threat. There is no world where town!you shoots Cakez over me

Gob is scum here guys. His actions don't match his words or thoughts at all. That's because they're fake thoughts
I agree with you that you were on D1 train too, so it would make sense for vig!gob to kill you.
Why do you not consider that he is covering a real vig?
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Post Post #944 (isolation #47) » Thu Feb 29, 2024 3:37 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 939, Black wrote:
In post 937, gob wrote:
In post 935, Black wrote:
In post 933, NotAScum wrote: Because some townrole could've 1-2 shot modifier. What is also suspicious is rather than voting snow, gob is voting black. Feels like distancing. Why would a real vig won't vote a fake vig? There's something else going on here
You don't seem to be considering the possibility that scum!gob wants to push town!me because Snow is a gated Vig that can't shoot tonight. He's not as big of a threat. The scum team still needs to figure out who the other town PRs are so it makes perfect sense for scum!gob to try and push me up to a claim here
??? im not pushing you to claim here lol. Im trying to lim you
What do you think getting me to E-1 would do? It would force me to claim. Trying to fade me and trying to make me claim is one in the same
At what point on D1 were you at E-1 stage? I think at most you've got 4 votes (Gob, Cakez, T3, NAS).
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Post Post #1063 (isolation #48) » Thu Feb 29, 2024 9:06 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 1034, Random Nurse wrote: Gob + Black + Hu Tao?
Could be. Makes sense to me.
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Post Post #1069 (isolation #49) » Thu Feb 29, 2024 9:29 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 1037, Hu Tao wrote: Snow was lock town since day 1 imo. If he's scum I'll be shocked
I have read the exchange. A couple of thoughts.

Re the quote above. How can I be lock town since D1? Townish? Probably. But look, it's my first game here. No-one knows me, my meta (if any), how I play as scum or town, how I play when I have time and when I don't, when I understand the rules and process and when I don't, when I am engaged or not. And so on.
Now imagine that I am scum. Would anything I have done or written on D1 be inconsistent with my scummy self?

What puzzles me is that Gob warned me that Black was trying to pre-pocket me. Now I am called lock town. No warning from Gob. RN is right that Gob-Black conflict is a theatre?

I think this is my issue for now. If Gob is town, he attacks Black. And Black is adamant at limming him. Which compromises Black. If Gob is scum, their conflict looks artificial and this compromises Black as well. Even more IMO. For instance, I CC-ed in part because I felt some pressure from Black's posts and thought that I should not be believed had I delayed. So, if Gob is scum who wanted to frame a vig, then Black could have had a role in that process. So one way or the other Black can be scum.

I don't think that we are now at ELo stage. There is approach that at no-ELo stage you leave a pair of conflicting players (2 cops etc.) in the game, analyze the set-up and who are remaining scums and eliminate a 3rd player. I therefore think that an idea to lim Black or anyone else has some merit.

I have had a busy day and go to bed now. Will think it over tomorrow.
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Post Post #1070 (isolation #50) » Thu Feb 29, 2024 9:32 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 1064, Hu Tao wrote:
In post 1063, Snow2697 wrote:
In post 1034, Random Nurse wrote: Gob + Black + Hu Tao?
Could be. Makes sense to me.
I trusted you
Yeah, but you could be scum who knows my status.
I don't know yours, so I have to consider all options.
But look, you can be town and I can be mistaken just as I was when suspecting T3-Cakez.
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Post Post #1071 (isolation #51) » Thu Feb 29, 2024 9:32 am

Post by Snow2697 »

In post 1064, Hu Tao wrote:
In post 1063, Snow2697 wrote:
In post 1034, Random Nurse wrote: Gob + Black + Hu Tao?
Could be. Makes sense to me.
I trusted you
Yeah, but you could be scum who knows my status. I don't know yours, so I have to consider all options.
But look, you can be town and I can be mistaken just as I was when suspecting T3-Cakez.
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Post Post #1102 (isolation #52) » Thu Feb 29, 2024 8:40 pm

Post by Snow2697 »

If we mislim Gob today, D3 can be ELo. Whom will we (or you w/o me) lim then? Cannot think of anyone better than Black. We are locked in a Black-Gob-me triangle now. This is a factor for limming Black now. There are others.
Gob's story is wierd. Joking about being vig and not expecting a real vig to come out?
Between Gob and Black, I would vote for Gob.
If he is town and Black or someone else is mislimmed on D3, Gob's game and my N1 shot will cost town this game. So be it.
If he is scum, there is no ELo tomorrow. Good. Time to look around.

VOTE: Gob
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Post Post #1653 (isolation #53) » Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:47 pm

Post by Snow2697 »

Had fun, thank you Ausuka for modding and everyone for the game.
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Post Post #1663 (isolation #54) » Tue Mar 12, 2024 9:19 pm

Post by Snow2697 »

My preference would be a picture, name and a couple of interesting facts for easy to reading.
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Post Post #1664 (isolation #55) » Tue Mar 12, 2024 10:32 pm

Post by Snow2697 »

** easy reading **

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