Mini 2331 - Touhou UPick: Anonymous Edition (Game Over)

[Yuuka Kazami]

I would also like to ask if there is a way I can do this without being obnoxious not because I'm scum and want to avoid pissing people off but because I'd like to conduct myself well. But I'm not really sure how to do that. It's like, I want to smooth the edges of my personal flaws out of a misguided sense of idealism.

Mid game.
No that is a bad idea. Just do it instead of asking for help.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Sure, if you ever want to you know,
engage with the I'm scum thing. I'm here.

Going on to do something much more productive.

A genuine paranoia spiral about Aya and Koishi. My favorite even though it's *horrifically* cliche, isn't or rather shouldn't happen this day phase and won't unless I'm feeling very, very, very

and also I'll just talk myself out of it.


But I am like, an investor that needs to be babied and coddled because I really want reassurance that there is simply *no way* that scum do that. You know in a slow talk way.

Traditionally, I'd like to just talk to Aya and Koishi about it. Talk through the math and why it's obviously a misplay even if the writing was on the wall.

I have bone in my throat about an ego thing with Sanae. But I only want to move past it if it's technical in soundness, not just because it would be mature of me to do so.

If it was Aya + Koishi they'd have to figure out how to justify why the two N1 conftowns aren't getting shot by ELO

[Yuuka Kazami]

Okay.

So, back on day one.

Koishi and Aya are circling the drain right, but nothing is set in stone.
Larvae is in good position to wolf but could be disrupted.
It's impossible to know for sure but I find it very unlikely if it happened in a reasonable fashion that Larvae was the one that did the shooting, it makes more sense to avoid the different roles that could sniff you out.

Actually, and I'm sorry for this, it's just a role issue thing.
I understand there are spell cards, actives and passives and that you can, sometimes use spell cards and actives on the same way.
Does this mean that Larvae could not have done the shot because they gave the fruit to...
sigh someone helped me with this but I forgot again.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Does this mean that Larvae could not have done the shot because they gave the fruit to...
sigh someone helped me with this but I forgot again.

Larva couldn't have shot herself cause you can't self-target. Dango-wise it depends on if maf have inherent multitasking or not

Mechanic Information

• Each spellcard can only be used once, unless mentioned otherwise.
  
• Only one spellcard can be used at a time, unless mentioned otherwise.
  
• Spellcards can be used along with Active abilities, unless mentioned otherwise.
  
• To use a spellcard, PM me as if you would use your regular ability.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Well maybe scum can self-target, it's just Not Normal

[Yuuka Kazami]

Well irregardless, Aya has a situational awareness, they understood the crux of where the pressure was coming form and outwardly resented it. I don't know how anger works for them in particular.

Some part of me thinks it's like, they're calmly writing in their notes PT while blowing up in thread and other times, it's well, actually I think I know the answer here. Probably legit but they can...Sort of divorce it? But it still gets in their gears. They said as much in thread. It's a true/false statement sort of thing, but could be either true or false without an alignment tag attached.

Now, probably Larvae does not like being scum. They could be talked into taking a dive as a surprise as a flounder,
I kind of explained already that I think they tried to channel how they felt overwhelmed by rolling scum by talking about how confusing the names are. But just because there's an emotional propensity for them to want to take the easy way out, that's not something they would actually do without a fuck ton of convincing. They know their general business. They'd put their foot down if they really thought it was a bad idea and mathematically *it is* a bad idea.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

It's impossible to know for sure but I find it very unlikely if it happened in a reasonable fashion that Larvae was the one that did the shooting, it makes more sense to avoid the different roles that could sniff you out.

Aya said she redirected all night actions targeting Koishi to Larva, so Larva didn't need to make the shot in that case

[Yuuka Kazami]

Does this mean that Larvae could not have done the shot because they gave the fruit to...
sigh someone helped me with this but I forgot again.

Larva couldn't have shot herself cause you can't self-target. Dango-wise it depends on if maf have inherent multitasking or not

Mechanic Information

• Each spellcard can only be used once, unless mentioned otherwise.
  
• Only one spellcard can be used at a time, unless mentioned otherwise.
  
• Spellcards can be used along with Active abilities, unless mentioned otherwise.
  
• To use a spellcard, PM me as if you would use your regular ability.

This idea didn't occur to me that you could shoot yourself. I kind of know you can't do that, even though in some scenarios where there's a gambit it would have some advantages outside of partner shot vig claim. or what not.
There's a few ways it could have happened.
1. aya or their partner shot Larvae.
2. Aya used a redirect that Larvae or their partner shot at Koishi.
3. Koishi used a self reflect that Larvae shot at them.

There are advantages and disadvantages and complications galore to any of these options. If you're going to actually do that and work through them. But I don't want to go through them all right now.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Some very good players have shot their partners before.
But most of them don't do it N1. I think. Any one ever experience or has any statistical knowledge about how many scum have shot their partners and how many of those shots were done N1?

Personally I have 0 experience with a scum partner shooting their partner mid game.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'm kinda not interested in the Aya/Koishi cases cause it'll solve itself if they're still alive by ELO with no scumflips

[Koishi Komeiji]

I believe gif has the "all players of the faction" rule informally as well. (As in, all three Mafia have to agree for that sort of play).

[Yuuka Kazami]

I'm kinda not interested in the Aya/Koishi cases cause it'll solve itself if they're still alive by ELO with no scumflips

I don't really think it qualifies as a case because the general groundwork hasn't been done.
the how dunnit, why dunnit, etc haven't been filled. I'm pretty much just looking at it and asking myself if it's possible and if it was possible, how would it have been done and what would the reasoning have been that is within the bounds of reasonableness, ish.

[Yuuka Kazami]

I believe gif has the "all players of the faction" rule informally as well. (As in, all three Mafia have to agree for that sort of play).

That's interesting. I think in general that kind of discussion with the parameters and players involved would always be pretty cordial.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Like where would you even get the confidence for that sort of play.
You take stock of where everybody is and you decide,

Koishi + Aya + larvae.
Koishi + Larvae + ???
Aya + Larvae + ???

The most beneficial is the first. They kind of had each other's backs before so it wouldn't have been much of a factor in making that sort of decision if only one of them is scum. Rather it would not have been a prominent factor in their decision to say I protected X.
It might have gotten them more on their side and they would have been more predisposed to believe it, but how much do you really need to weigh that when you're already a mile ahead. I mean I guess they did say in an elo situation they'd vote Aya over me, but...that only well this whole thing is unlikely just stop getting side tracked and letting that termination process get in the way while you're at it. ...Shouldn't part of me just listen to that voice and, mmm. There's a quote about process of elimination and however unlikely if you run out of other options it was that option. It's hard hard to know where that process stops. Oh well!

Let's do first,
Koishi designs a fake claim because they seem the type to make their own than take the mod's or use their actual role. Early day 1.

Well, thematically, speaking, Aya being a redirector does and does not make sense.
In some ways I guess because like, you're not the focus, other people are, so if someone asks the press a question it's just going to get redirected. and the speed portion of the ability is thematically appropriate. Albeit still up in the air about the Tenshi role block thing. Hopefully, that gets squared away next day phase.
Things progress, you need to flip the script 2 scum alive until end game is better than 1 deep wolf. But this gets into a sort of politics Aya would still need to get back into the swing of things, would they even talk about that in a scum PT? They need to carry, if they go through with it.

1. So motivation. Well if the plan was made when would it have been formulated right after the lock? No, it sticks, it's sticky. Later in the day maybe even night phase, they didn't really pick up until D2. Not really able to know progression speed. Koishi on support.

aside, sometimes silly people think that just because two players talk to each other or hit it off they must be scum with them. This would, largely be the case with Aya and Koishi, which I find doubtful both on a statistical level but also just because I don't like the thinking and it's often wrong but for some reason people get drawn to the reasoning. they're both capable of interacting with partners in good ways. So it's not like they can't be partners together if only looking at the side of things related to, "these players would always avoid each other," it's sadly not that simple. But, one lense.

That first part is kind of reaching on the redirector portion. Speed use, redirect, some other reasoning is at play.

[Yuuka Kazami]

I believe gif has the "all players of the faction" rule informally as well. (As in, all three Mafia have to agree for that sort of play).

Have you ever seen a scum player kill their partner N1? Or have any information there?
@Everyone, same question.
it's not a meta hunt thing,
I just want to do this...sort of empirically.

[Koishi Komeiji]

I've literally killed a scum partner before (with their permission). But day one? Hell no that's stupid. That's a hail Mary play you make to setup one of the final two for endgame.

[Koishi Komeiji]

Cool see you all in 72 hours when Reisen shows up and we play the next hurry up and wait round.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

This game really is just procrastination city

[Koishi Komeiji]

I keep thinking you're Fern from Frieren.

[Koishi Komeiji]

Anyone not named Yuuka need anything from me?

Going to bed soon.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Okay, since nobody has spoken up I'm going to assume that empirically the chances of a N1 scum kill are so vanishingly rare that it would be statistical malpractice to act on it. If I lose to it,

oh well! Guess somebody had to make history with an insane gamble at some point.

[Yuuka Kazami]

So, moving on from my paranoia spiral,

there's Kagerou, Dai, Reisen, Marisa, Kaguya.
2 scum.

Let's arrange it.

So for Dai the way they bailed bothers me, but I also know I'm projecting there because, as mentioned I've had that role before and I pretty much either don't use it, or communicate with everyone about using it beforehand to avoid surprises and miscommunication. But I think I'm probably uniquish in that approach.

For a more sober look their head space was that it was the Aya and koishi show.

But that didn't stop them really, they said it but they still did things while acknowledging wagons weren't really in their control.

The head space could have been used in lieu for something to do, rather it could have been artificial inflation for post count and activity and then they found motivation to do more than nothing about it. They didn't really seem to progress much in terms of reads. I still think their position is weird for some them. But rather than ust looking at words, we pretty much have somebody that knew they were vulnerable and whisked themselves out. They were in the lower pool of eliminations. I'm not sure if it was statistically the right move to just take themselves out of the equation now for a reduced chance of us hitting scum when it just points them in a more vulnerable position tomorrow. They pretty much have tomorrow to hawk whatever they're going to sell in terms of reasoning for the action.

[Yuuka Kazami]

I'm not sure if Reisen's question about whether Dai is going to return is suspicious or not.
At face value it just says they aren't partners and aren't informed. Why did you ask that question Reisen?

Their posts at the start of this day phase feel different in length. So maybe something internal is happening there, this is an invitation if there is something internal happening there to explain it.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Why is Larvae's factional ability a bicycle horn.
Is that information denial or did they just not have one?

[Yuuka Kazami]

Asking mod.

I guess tomorrow I'll pay more attention to people.