Open 913 - This Game Started as an April Fools' Joke - Postgame

[Thomith]

Sup.

I'll be catching up over the next day or so.

If anyone has something they want me to focus on specifically let me know.

[Thomith]

Black I don't think you ever answered me about what you see as ming lying

He potentially lied about agreeing with Daisy

Why potentially?

[Thomith]

Moros why do you townread ming?

You've defended ming a lot but never really explained why you believe him

i don't know. he says things and they make sense to me and i believe them. i just do.

Make sense as in you agree, or make sense as in you understand what's being said and think that makes him town?

[Thomith]

i don't think i'm happy with this gamestate

What makes you not happy about it?

[Thomith]

I'm fine with a ming or moros fade

Without getting full context yet, no matter how either flip, it sounds like ming flipping may give more information than Moros.

[Thomith]

I guess scum!moros could be prepping for a town flip on ming and trying to use that to gain leverage tomorrow but like, just saying it believes him doesn't rly do enough for that. It's also always gonna be somewhat of a risk defending your counterwagon that usually pings me as a p townie thing to do cause it's actively not self-preservational (if that's a word lol), even if it doesn't rly feel like a read that's gonna convince others.

This thought ran through my head too

In fact

VOTE: Moros

Like this 100% was my thought process when questioning, but I think this requires a ming flip to be able to sort properly.

[Thomith]

I'm fine with a ming or moros fade

Without getting full context yet, no matter how either flip, it sounds like ming flipping may give more information than Moros.

What additional info would it give?

Ming feels like a polarising slot. Polarising slots give information if they flip town or scum, as

usually

scum end up on either side of the arguments in some capacity, or at the very least, usually don't all end up with the exact same stances, which potentially makes the game easier to solve down the line.

[Thomith]

VOTE: Black Ranger

[Thomith]

I'm fine with a ming or moros fade

Without getting full context yet, no matter how either flip, it sounds like ming flipping may give more information than Moros.

What additional info would it give?

Ming feels like a polarising slot. Polarising slots give information if they flip town or scum, as

usually

scum end up on either side of the arguments in some capacity, or at the very least, usually don't all end up with the exact same stances, which potentially makes the game easier to solve down the line.

VOTE: Black Ranger

What changed between these two?

I (maybe wrongly) assumed that the ming "lying" argument to mean he was probably scum was being pushed heavily to a point where I felt uncomfortable voting there, because it felt like an easy thing scum may have just focused on to get a mislim.
ming also did seem to be solving in posts such as 442/443 seemed like genuine town frustration, and posts such as 444/493/516/517 seemed solvey in nature, whereas Black Rangers posts didn't seem like there was an attempt to solve, so I decided to vote what I thought was more likely to flip scum instead.

[Thomith]

black ranger's ISO is a bit comical
It's very very detached from the game and I can't say it's towny
ive stuff to do rn but ill look into it in like aqn hour

i've decided that black ranger's detached gameplay is more scummy than towny
it feels like actively trying to avoid having to do anything

I can see this being a fabricated "progression"

Why does it seem fabricated?

[Thomith]

Can I suggest we forget/ignore the cop result for the time being (as much as possible)
There were two kills last night so it's possible there will be two again tonight which could result in one of them dead, solving the other.
In the meantime we can discuss who to vote (neither of the two) with them both in the mix to maximise spew
Then if csf is shot we have someone to vote, and if not we can just vote her

It seems way too early for this to be a worthwhile scum gambit from light_ganski as it'll inevitably be a 1 for 1 if CSF flips town, and way too convenient for CSF to be claiming Doctor. I believe the guilty on CSF.

Given CSF could die tonight by SK/vig we probably want to have a consensus on who we want to vote in a 'CSF flips scum tonight' scenario.

I'm gonna go reread CSF's posts; Daisy's take on the quoted post in 564 above seems plausible though.

Oh so if CSF survives the Night, we vote her, but if she doesn't we vote someone else?

[Thomith]

I'm just gunna run through numbers to see if there may have been any reason for a fake Cop guilty don't mind me.

I doubt it, just wanna see.

[Thomith]

Night 1 -IF WE ARE IN AN SK WORLD
11 Alive
7 Town
1 SK
3 Scum

2 Die tonight - maybe both town if we have a SK?

Day 2
9 Alive
5 Town
1 SK
3 Scum

Night 2 (If Cop Guilty Faked)
8 Alive
4 Town
1 SK
3 Scum

SK has to kill scum N2 in this hypothetical

Day 3
6 Alive
3 Town
1 SK
2 Scum

If my math isn't wrong we probably need to eliminate correctly today to avoid a worst case scenario of becoming at "ELo" during Night 2? Would still feel like a crazy gambit for a fake guilty so I'm not too sure if this worst case scenario world is right - I feel like it assumes too much.

[Thomith]

I'm just gunna run through numbers to see if there may have been any reason for a fake Cop guilty don't mind me.

I doubt it, just wanna see.

Is a red rolecop possible?

No rolecops in this setup.

[Thomith]

No SK Scenario
Night 1
11 Alive
8 Town
3 Scum

Day 2 - Assuming a potential vig 1) is not One-Shot and 2) shoots the guilty and its fake
9 Alive
6 Town
3 Scum

Night 2 - if CSF isn't scum then obviously we would get light-ganski
6 Town
2 Scum

Yeah this probably is only endgame if there is an SK world over a Vig world, so it would be a huge gamble for scum to assume it's an SK (only a 50% shot from memory). Cop is probably real imo.

[Thomith]

569 feels a bit like light setting up to say this was all just a reaction test later. Whatever she says, don’t let light back out of her cop claim later

I'm just gonna make this absolutely clear

This is not a reaction test

Any crumbs per chance?

[Thomith]

Think it's obvious but I voted Black Ranger

[Thomith]

I didn't trust myself enough to crumb without just outing myself

Fair enough.

[Thomith]

i don't see any reason to disbelieve light's claim here. i'm currently likely to vote for ming again if csf is nightkilled barring anything major changing my mind tonight.

because of the way the phases work differently here, and us being in ELo or MeLo potentially not being immediately obvious because of that, I just wanted to run the numbers to check there wasn't a scenario where a scum fakeclaim couldn't just cause a win, but yeah, there's one exact scenario where that would screw us, but it would require scum to take a huge gamble that I doubt we are ever in that world.

light_ganski's posting today regarding the guilty seems genuine too.

[Thomith]

i do not think it makes sense for scum!Black to switch up her opinion on me so suddenly

why doesn't it make sense?

it would've taken no effort to get rid of me at all and in my opinion she would've been one of the least suspicious on the wagon, so there wasn't really any reason for her to get off if she's not genuinely solving

ofc the alternative explanation would be that black always intended to move off of ming if possible, and black ranger was the easiest target when she couldn't get enough traction on morose

I need to think about this

Are you considering ming and I as partners here? I'm confused

I believe that's the claim yes - that you swapped off of ming to try and create a new wagon to save him, with the assumption you are both a scumteam.

Tbh me following you without giving a real explanation should realistically be more suspicious imo.

[Thomith]

I still believe this was Black trying to protect their buddy in Awesome, and if Awesome is town I could easily see Black going for the mis lim that gives less info

This feels like Drew is trying to position himself to fade me regardless of Ming's alignment

Ok, why is Daisy really trying hard to clear you if Ming is town then?

I'm not sure really. What does this have to do with you thinking I'm scum regardless of Ming's alignment?

I think you are scum with either Ming or Daisy, but I would seriously doubt that Daisy and Ming are scum together

Could you elaborate on why?