Mini 2331 - Touhou UPick: Anonymous Edition (Game Over)

[Aya Shameimaru]

Essentially I am confirmed town and deciding who dies today, and then people figure it out in F3.

You gotta convince me you are town today and find 2 scum in Yuuka Kagerou Kaguya.

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

Essentially I am confirmed town and deciding who dies today, and then people figure it out in F3.

You gotta convince me you are town today and find 2 scum in Yuuka Kagerou Kaguya.

Okay, that clarifies things much more. Why are you confirmed town?

[Aya Shameimaru]

Essentially I am confirmed town and deciding who dies today, and then people figure it out in F3.

You gotta convince me you are town today and find 2 scum in Yuuka Kagerou Kaguya.

Okay, that clarifies things much more. Why are you confirmed town?

I am confirmed to have taken the scum kill with a redirector and shot it at a scum deep wolf in Eternity Larva. It is the only scum we have killed this game.

[Aya Shameimaru]

(This happened night 1. Kagerou strongman vigged Tenshi and I redirected a kill from Koishi by scum onto Larvae.)

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

K, fair enough.

[Aya Shameimaru]

For you especially Reisen, I am conf town because I had every option to murder your slot while we looked for replacement by just saying you die today given I decide who dies. From your PoV you are town so if I were scum here I would essentially just be delaying the game for no reason.

[Aya Shameimaru]

It's a lot to ask from you especially when I am making the final choice today ANYWAY but...

The more you read and give opinions the more it helps me figure this shit out so.

Try hard away, if you can.

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

From a skim of the last few pages I can see my slot is more or less unilaterally scumread, tells me scum see this as the game winning miskill. I don't expect this to be convincing but as a general principle in this type of situation, when everyone is agreeing to a kill they are almost always going to be town. A scum slot being pushed in XYLO is usually going to hae at least some level of hesitation associated with it but the easy miskills usually have nothing defensible about them. Obviously I benefit from knowing my own alignment, but yeah.

also i'm gonna tell you both this, like right now

the other 2 aren't playing.

i'm jsut ruling out Yuuka/Kaguya as a possible team entirely. At MOST one of you is scum. If you're both scum, town has lsot this game anyway because Reisen and Kagerou both just don't wanna be here anymore.

Also this - I cannot claim to have conclusive reads on anyone's alignment, but knowing my own alignment here and the gamestate I'd say youve got it exactly backwards. Given we're on Day 5 and no one has killed scum that points a lot more reliably toward conscious manipulation of the gamestate by scum over a potato team doing. Because while sometimes gamse happen where a potato team wins by doing nothing and having town kill itself, they're pretty rare IME. If you reach this point in the game it's usually because someone has been consciously moving you toward ad kills. Again - no conclusions on anyone's alignment but think your logic here is backwards.

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

For you especially Reisen, I am conf town because I had every option to murder your slot while we looked for replacement by just saying you die today given I decide who dies. From your PoV you are town so if I were scum here I would essentially just be delaying the game for no reason.

It's a lot to ask from you especially when I am making the final choice today ANYWAY but...

The more you read and give opinions the more it helps me figure this shit out so.

Try hard away, if you can.

I'm a big fan of lost causes so I'll do my best here

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

I'm getting tired of waiting for stuff to happen this game. Aya if your kill today is Reisen can you just speed things along and save GIF the trouble of finding a replacement to a 250 page uPick?

Will say in particular though that this feels like someone who is anxious to accelerate the day and end the game and doesn't want a replacement coming in and creating problems for them. I know my predecessor targeted them with their spellcard to make them self target, but yeah. Gut ping.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Aya is just confirmed town because the day would have been over awhile ago if they weren’t lol.

[Aya Shameimaru]

Aya is just confirmed town because the day would have been over awhile ago if they weren’t lol.

lmfao

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

Game reads significantly faster when I can ignore 90% of the posts on a page, at any rate. Finding one town in 3 people isn't so bad.

Initial impression based on the first ~15 pages is Kagerou looks the towniest and Kaguya/Yuuka are both posting in molds I can easily see scum fitting into. Kagerou there seems to be a mindset of actually trying to figure things out, while Kaguya is unmemorable and Yuuka goes off on what feels like a fairly uncharitable push toward Ichirin.

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

eh i'm not really feeling the Ichirin votes

the below post reads as a genuine town reaction to the sudden burst of votes

Oh. I look away for a few minutes and by the time I post again there's 3 people on me.

and while i can see where Ichirin could be perceived as nitpicking at my unexplained read i don't think it was such an outrageous thing to point out. the amount of criticism sie's receiving for it feels incongruent and unwarranted

Koishi's questions from the last page (266 and 270) are contributing to the pile on and egging on the criticism without looking like a genuine attempt to ascertain Ichirin's alignment

and Yuuka specifically felt like she entered into that engagement deliberately looking for a fight by calling Ichrin's posts bad multiple times for reasons i cannot gather from reading the last couple pages

it feels icky in multiple places

VOTE: Koishi Komeiji

i should go back and remember why i was townreading Yuuka outside the initial miller claim

of Clown, Yuuka, and Koishi, i think Koishi looks the worst by a large margin

and deserves more votes for their transgressions

Also caught my eye. Progression to throw shade but divert pressure away.

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

Reisen can you elaborate on your 'ew' pile? Our reads seem to align in that regard but i want to know why you feel that way

Reisen can you elaborate on your 'ew' pile? Our reads seem to align in that regard but i want to know why you feel that way

They aren’t going to be for the same reasons cuz I’m super selfish and the world revolves around me but.

I thought kagerou putting me in their town core off just my ascetic claim was super weird. Marisa piggybacked on but I get their mindset because I’m also predisposed to town reading lighthearted jokey slots especially early in games. So reads genuine.

Kagerous read felt more like my name was thrown in there for the out of the box factor, because that’s just what townies do.

Dai felt more upset that I was being considered townie for doing nothing and I could see that as more scum frustration. So could I can see multiple worlds there.

I don’t think they are together.

i guess i'd join a Kagerou wagon too but i think that read deserves more thought and reevaluation than i am currently capable of

Seems a pretty clear pocket attempt though of course I'm biased, the "i want to know why you feel that way" having the effect of making my predecessor do work to earn Larva's trust. The fact it ends with vting Dai but going "eh, I could do Kagerou maybe" is

noted

.

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

Ah shit I think I know who Kaguya's main is.

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

I wasn't expecting to even recognize anyone but it just sort of happened and it's going to be coloring my read because I think they're an extremely capable scum player.

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

i will be fairly inactive through Monday, other than a few opportunities to post here and there

i plan to reread the game upon my return because i am concerned i have too many townreads and the people i've been not-town reading keep saying things that make me doubt myself which is annoying

i am feeling good about Clownpiece, Sanae, and Marisa for town, in that order

Ichirin is also close to this tier but not quite to the level of the three listed above, for the townie reaction to their wagon that Koishi is still desperately trying to get me to concede could come from scum

i am leaning town on Yuuka still but to be fair this read probably deserves more in depth reevaluation

Tenshi had a solid and imo townie defense to some pressure earlier but has done next to nothing since, so gun-to-head town but i will need more from her to cement that one way or another

Kaguya, Reisen, and Aya are slots i feel nothing about and will be one of my focuses upon reread. i will say i had even had some townpings from Reisen and Aya but nothing strong enough in either direction to make me commit

Dai and Koishi continue to mirror each other when it comes to how i feel about them, as indicated preivously, their early questions and one-off posts came across as surface level and a way to look engaged with the game without contributing anything. however Koishi has dulled that suspicion a bit with our interaction about Ichirin (even though i am growing irritated with being asked the same question in different ways over and over again >_<).

on a similar note i thought Dai's most recent post was great and conveyed the thoughts i found difficult to articulate about Kagerou. basically Koishi and Dai's body of work overall leans scum, but there have been a couple glimmers of towny-ness that shake my confidence

My only fairly solid scum read at this point is Kagerou and even that's pretty...loose? there are some posts that made me feel good on a tone level but i agree with Dai about the bulk of the ISO is pretty fluffy and i see Kagerou has over fifty posts but their actual impact this game does not at all correlate with what i expect based on their high level of activity

from what i can tell there also hasn't been much in terms of reads outside of the Clownpiece scum read (i now see the reads list provided with some interesting takes that i will look into more when i return) which she pretty much refused to elaborate on, and the reasoning she did provide also never sat well with me to begin with and came from the first page. it's difficult for me to buy that into the fact that her opinion on Clownpiece has not changed or evolved since the beginning of the game, especially since Clownpiece is my largest town read, which leads me to believe she is just holding onto it because she needs a strong opinion that goes against the grain

those are all my thoughts for now, please feel free to poke at or ask questions about anything. i am thinking this will be a game where i focus on identifying and locking in town reads and just pushing to eliminate within 'what's left'

VOTE: Kagerou Imaizumi

Given the timing and positioning of this it feels pretty unaligning. Possible Larva was attempting to bus and failing but given threadstate it feels pretty pivotal - momentum on Kagerou was real enough, bussing would be a conscious choice where from what I gather Larva had enough influence they could have pressured elsewhere. I think the general noncommittal nature of the push is setting up for it being a town flip - in general I'd expect a bus to show a little higher confidence level than what was shown.

Only note of hesitation is that if I'm right on Kaguya they'd absolutely bus a partner in that spot on Day 1. But most wouldn't. That's WIFOM at best though.


Got to admit 385 is a big oof regardless of alignment, but. Most scum aren't usually that bold with their reads. One of those cases where having meta would be a significant help.

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

Reisen, Marisa have gone up slightly.

I have reservations about larva. But it’s probably paranoia.

Samae being in a neighborhood with Marisa doesn’t make me feel better or worse.

mmm

[Yuuka Kazami]

Well, Reisen and Kagerou haven’t led any wagons. And at least one of those player’s is scum.

So you are at maximum half right Reisen.

Whether it’s Kaguya actively controlling the eliminations or the scum team really was just out of sight of mind is difficult to know for sure without, you know, the game ending.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Finally, someone quotes my posts.

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

@Kagerou i know you said reading the thread is difficult right now but i am most interested in your detailed reads on Clownpiece and Sanae when you get around to it

well i'd like to preface my Clownpiece read by the fact that i think i'm just not in a position to push people this game so my plan right now is to be a bit more laid back and act smug about it when she flips scum

firstly, that whole argument about numbers and all just kinda dragged on and on and in the end i don't think we even got anything out of it?

then, i get being curious about account generation, but the fact that :
- she went ahead and went with straight up numbers
- those numbers don't really match up with what other people have been told

makes me seem she was worried about finding something to start things off while also not caring very much about asking

Spoiler:

i'd rather keep it vague for now but on top of not looking like they're solving (which granted maybe that's just how i view things) they've been trying to distract people from pushing fowards the game

I had a town lean on page one, and I that has grown to 4. 4 reads on page 7 seems like a pretty solid pace to me lmao.

Also, unsure what the stopping the game from going forward even means, so :shrug:

I kinda didn't know how to put it into words at the time but like, knowing your exact number of townreads on command is weird

the reaction to Ichirin's reaction was also something that hugely bugged me, to go into reasons :

Spoiler:

I am just confused on why you don't seem interested in determining the alignment of the people who voted you.

You started by saying it was town voting you, I asked why we could not be scum voting you (the full scum team part was a joke, but that was the idea), and you responded by not even knowing who was voting you.

I would expect some level of suspicion from someone who thinks that they are currently in serious danger of being miselimed (which I already felt was an exaggerated response to 3 votes), but you actually seem completely uninterested in your voters for some reason.

Complaining that you aren't getting scrutinized certainely isn't a weird look, and while it's kinda dumb, i feel like if Ichirin called for their agressors to be scum, it would just get called OMGUS?
likewise
i'm also of the opinion that scum often looks more intensely for these sort of low involvement slip rather than town, since like, it's one of the only things town can reasonable do under pressure that is actually scummy

i'll also fully admit that this is hugely a gut read and that i'm proud of it (besides upgrading "i think this is scum" to "i think this is null at best" isn't really game advancing content here)

---

As for Sanane, as i've said already, i'm suspicious of her view of Yuuka's claim, , i get she was kinda overblowing here cause blah blah early game we already don't have much info early but that's not really clearing

she's also like really passive? I get not all townies can be at the front of the stage but a lot of her content is "agreeing with other people" and "explaining why she agrees with people"

this is somewhat related but when reading the phrasing of posting, i get huge vibes of "i'm posting for others to look at me in a good light" rather than "i'm posting cause i wanna figure out what's going on"

My only fairly solid scum read at this point is Kagerou and even that's pretty...loose? there are some posts that made me feel good on a tone level but i agree with Dai about the bulk of the ISO is pretty fluffy and i see Kagerou has over fifty posts but

their actual impact this game does not at all correlate with what i expect based on their high level of activity

VOTE: Kagerou Imaizumi

btw i'm very happy with my impact on the game so far so be assured this is intended

If this is scum theater it's expert-level stuff. This all feels like Kagerou is very legitimately appealing to larva and trying to win their favor, going very in-depth into thought process etc. I can get fooled by this type of stuff but it feels significantly more in depth than I'd expect from a scum/scum interaction. A lot of this and their Kaguya read in 420 feel like they legitimately believe in it and are trying to convince people of that. If they're scum it'd be...calculated anti-distancing? Which is not a typical angle for most players. If there was less substance behind it I could see it but it parses as real enough to me.

Possible I'm just jumping to conclusions here but shrug. That's my gut feeling off the initial few pages. Sometimes this stuff is more self-evident in the early game and just gets lost in the noise of pages and pages of nonsense afterward.

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

Well, Reisen and Kagerou haven’t led any wagons. And at least one of those player’s is scum.

So you are at maximum half right Reisen.

Whether it’s Kaguya actively controlling the eliminations or the scum team really was just out of sight of mind is difficult to know for sure without, you know, the game ending.

Well that's speaking from your POV but I have no knowledge of your alignment at all, so it's not like I can do anything with a statement like this.

[Reisen Udongein Inaba]

I have to stop for tonight, back with more tomorrow.

[Yuuka Kazami]

Well, Reisen and Kagerou haven’t led any wagons. And at least one of those player’s is scum.

So you are at maximum half right Reisen.

Whether it’s Kaguya actively controlling the eliminations or the scum team really was just out of sight of mind is difficult to know for sure without, you know, the game ending.

Well that's speaking from your POV but I have no knowledge of your alignment at all, so it's not like I can do anything with a statement like this.

So’s speculation on how scum approached the game.i can’t do anything with that. Unless you sell it. And you didn’t, but took time to disagree with it, probably because it suits your position.