Mini 2331 - Touhou UPick: Anonymous Edition (Game Over)

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

By my count, we have one miselimination regardless of if two people die or not? How does that factor? What are you worried about?

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

1f1?

If we lim someone here and Marisa comes out with a guilty we don't have time to lim both the guilty and Marisa

If we no lim we have time to lim both

I see what you're saying now. Then I hope Marisa can reconsider whether explaining the guilty ruin it. If not, that's a harder decision.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I also doubt a protect circle like that should happen. If it does, great. Dai and Yukka are forced to kill Reisen which limits their pool to me. I'd rather just lim scum but your point is well taken. It's be much better taken if we knew Marisa was indeed claiming cop. If she wasn't limming today is ideal but she may not even know.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

How does a no lim buy us enough time though? Either way, if the target flips town, scum!Marisa would claim a misinterpretation and so would town her.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

How does a no lim buy us enough time though? Either way, if the target flips town, scum!Marisa would claim a misinterpretation and so would town her.

If Marisa's guilty flips town she gets flipped 100% of the time. Having the time to flip both means that scum Marisa can't fake a guilty to force a winning 1v1

I'm not comfortable with that. Scum can frame a guilty target. I'd rather just lim in my solve. Nothing about that prevents the night action order.

We can then force the suspicious people to vote if we're wrong or Marisa has a guilty.

What do you think of my solve, setting mech aside?

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I'm not even sure what precisely one of my actions does. What if I target the same target as Marisa and accidentally clear scum? What if my action looks guilty but isn't? All I know is that I steal an object related to them and negative things can happen. (Ftr, that's my stealing the camera from Aya n1, and Riesen is ascetic day 2).

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I don't care if I'm leashed to either Dai or Yuuka to prevent such an issue. If we're going to let outed scum go to break the game, we need a plan from all angles.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Ask the mod, not the thread.

The wording is deliberately vague

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I'm not asking other people to explain my role. They can't (except for Aya saying what happened n1 to their role related to a camera). I know zilch about the possible guilty action. I don't want to be overzealous about hitting scum that I mess the game up.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I was about to say sorry, but I can't follow you into that assumption Kaguya.
But let me change that, because I wasn't aware that they were pulling from spell cards specifically from the game instead of just making up spell cards that fit the theme.

you've gone into the format breaks before and used it to push Marisa.
Let's see, without getting mod killed, how close we can determine the thematic elements fit the abilities in terms of a spell card and how rigid these rules are across each player's role pm.

This doesn't feel right. This feels like you're searching for a way to break the guilty.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Then why do you need information at all? Why don't you just lay yours on the table?

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I'm confused.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

What relevance does this have?

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

This is very unlikely to be helpful now. It requires heaps of speculation. It

might

be helpful in elo. To even establish this would require Marisa to establish the exact details of their roleblock. If you were fine with defending yourself against a guilty, why the heavy mech speculation now?

There's plenty of social interactions.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

This is very unlikely to be helpful now. It requires heaps of speculation. It

might

be helpful in elo. To even establish this would require Marisa to establish the exact details of their guilty to avoid the roleblock allegation. If you were fine with defending yourself against a guilty, why the heavy mech speculation now?

There's plenty of social interactions.

Ebwop

I had multiple thoughts in my head at once

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

If I wanted to criticize how inefficient people are, I could make a full time job out of it.

That's essentially what I do. We're at 5k posts. Anything that doesn't find scum is a problem.

I don't see how going through every role for links in flavor when most of us haven't seen the show helps. You have a notes PT.

My door is relevant for actual hunting.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Kaguya, mech aside, who is scum?

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Kaguya, mech aside, who is scum?

I'd rather not set mech aside while it's still useful, thanks. Pure readswise completely divorced of mech I'd probably put the kill list as Kagerou -> Marisa -> Yuuka/Reisen.

Where's Dai?

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Smh why?

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I don't think scum would decide to come out with an ability that lets them unalive themselves and say they're gonna actively try to use it and then actively uses it to get killed, especially cause she wasn't really in any danger positionally that'd warrant trying a delaying tactic like that (if I'm assuming she'd always try to rezz as scum)

I'm fucking sorry but the Dai not in danger universe doesn't match with the Koishi n1 shot. Dai would have been an alternative to Sanae but Dai essentially commutes for the phase.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I mean if it wasn't for the start of D3 Dai would essentially be going from "middle of the POE" to "kill immediately"

And what happened there?

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

The level of positional danger I'm talking about is e.g. Sanae d1 where the only reason she survived is cause she claimed she could treestump herself at night

Have you considered that you're too scared of repeating the past you're letting scum go?

What are the odds of two similar abilities both being town?

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I mean if it wasn't for the start of D3 Dai would essentially be going from "middle of the POE" to "kill immediately"

And what happened there?

I was temporarily holding back me being in the Clownpiece hood for reactions and she came back and called me out for being in the Clownpiece hood and not saying anything after like 24 hours of the day starting (since the self rezz is on a timer)

So she ruined your method of scumhunting and you're giving townpoints? Not believing something's useful is one thing but...

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Fair.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Ok I read from d3 to 170. I am even more convinced Yuuka scum. Arguing scum self target mech and nothing in Larva's iso is a load of horseshit. Yuuka also puts themself smack in the middle on Dai.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

*snarkless*
I don't agree with the reasoning that overlapping roles increases the chance of one of the players being scum. This is based on personal experience and observation.

Why do you think overlapping roles are more likely to have one of the players being scum?

respond to this please.

In the case of death, it's because we don't have protection roles. Plus Dai revived, so they skipped investigatives which you don't seem concerned with.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

If it wasn't for Marisa pretty obviously being the scum spellblocker I'd be voting Kagerou rn just fyi

Factional ability of Dai is my bet tbh.

This is frustrating.

I case perfectly the scumteam and we go into pointless mech.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

We don't have protection roles.

Redirects aren't doctors and bps.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

*snarkless*
I don't agree with the reasoning that overlapping roles increases the chance of one of the players being scum. This is based on personal experience and observation.

Why do you think overlapping roles are more likely to have one of the players being scum?

respond to this please.

In the case of death, it's because we don't have protection roles. Plus Dai revived, so they skipped investigatives which you don't seem concerned with.

My spellcard let me doc multiple people
Koishi is a confirmed bodyguard
Sanae had a doc spellcard
Tenshi had a BP spellcard
Clownpiece had a Non-Consecutive Commute active

Gone.
Blocked.
Can't self kill and doc.
Can't cop and commute.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Frankly. I am just going to leave for a bit. We are wasting time Kaguya but you need to do this nonsense to eliminate scum. We shouldn't outguess a mod.

I'm open to entertaining the plan of no limming solely because it might accelerate the end of what should be an autowin if we don't throw it.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Blocked.

What do you mean by this

Factional block by scum presuming.

Every town role has a downside.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Blocked.

What do you mean by this

Factional block by scum presuming.

Every town role has a downside.

Why are you assuming scum have a factional block instead of it being an active/spellcard?

Redacted part of Larva flip.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Kagerou not to pull you off the dai/yuuka team but what do you think about kaguya?

Possible to consider only after Dai flips. Not mech cleared but they are solving just not in a smart way.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

And look good doing it, that’s the point of doing it.

idk why people aren't getting this: She only looked good cause I held back the hood, therefore for it to be better than just not suiciding she'd need to have predicted I'd hold back the hood

Eli5 please

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I still don't get how any of that is relevant. Dai had two nightshots FoSing her. They're an investigation target. I don't see how a Clownpiece hood has any relevance.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Deadline:

(expired on 2024-04-07 14:43:23)

We should be deciding now if we're no limming or if we're gonna try to kill someone here

I'll make it simple.
Dai》》》》》》Yukka > No Lim

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I'll leave Kaguya, but I fully intend to use this account after this game to show you and everyone else that I can and do solve on a social level. Furthermore, that my social solves stand with the best of them if I get engagement and feedback.

My opinions are known so the ball is in conftowns court.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

1. I have solicited engagement, especially from you. You've said my request is political.
2. Transparently false, as shown by the debacle where I forgot Clownpiece was dead. I looked at Eternity's posts with fresh eyes.
3. My confidence increased over time with more data.

You're perfectly welcome to look at Eternity's posts and the VCs for a different conclusion but making walls that are nothing but discredits repeatedly are going to have the opposite effect. I will check back in a few hours to see if there's anything you'd like to talk about that's game related.

Now, I'll go back to leaving the thread for a few hours. Maybe more if I sleep.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Koishi, might as well put your vote down. If you're right and no mass, at least we get info.

Be back in an hour.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

You're sick. Aya's sick. Kaguya wants to put mech above all else. Marisa's more content with playing hero and ditching.

All Dai and Yuuka have to do is plug their ears. Bonus is claiming I'm political or whatever.

My pleas to engage my theories can't have you feeling better. My pleas won't get Kaguya out of a mech tunnel. They can't bring Marisa back for IRL.

It's personally annoying to come into a 5 thousand post game and get no engagement. Most of it is IRL but the least you can do is vote somewhere as a last will of sorts.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Well looks like I have more resetting to do.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Asked. I’m at work so I’ll be popping in and out.

The mod did forget me to send my theif result last night.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I want to understand everything I did before I act.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

VOTE: Yuuka

I did visit Yukka. Got feedback that they're scum.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Why do you think you received a message saying I was scum? You seemed careful of unexplained information yesterday. Today you’re less cautious, why?

Because I got a message stating you're scum.

I'm less cautious because the mod told me you're scum.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

UNVOTE: Yuuka

I forgot

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I need to review. I plan to do so in elo unless deadline goes to Monday. I need to file taxes and had a work emergency.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

At this point, a full reset is in order. My NKA was clearly wrong. Tbh, not a fan of Yuuka not giving a reason why Dai is town but I could realistically be the frame with the Dai kill.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Is scum by PoE a thing in melo.
I guess low key I do that but to me the idea of PoE in melo is scary. And it just makes it hard to figure out if you’re afraid of interacting/casing them in case they mess up or they as the remaining town turn against you.

Like metaphor time: you gotta treat it like watching a chess engine sack their queen for a hidden checkmate in 17. It's not a "human" move, in most cases sacking your queen (not sorting Reisen in ELO) is suboptimal, but in this specific case it's more optimal for me specifically because I know I'm town.

It's very specifically a playstyle divergence. You've slaved your vote to Aya so the only thing you can really do is solve, I'm openly deciding to get Aya to vote in a way that maximizes town winrate and as a result this kind of stuff is gonna happen

I don't like viewing this as a chess match here. There's deduction but we should not act like a chess match in melo/elo without solid information. Everyone should be considered.

I have concerns about that. I have been strategic though when I know something. The 1 v 1 I can take but if you're town, that's gg.

I have concerns about Yukka for what I feel was whiteknighting and just our absolute failure to communicate. I work with strict rules and miscommunication happens.

I have concerns about Riesen mechanically. I also have concerns about defenses of them by others.

I have concerns about Marisa's quadvote and the clear that wasn't. I have mistaken a clear that wasn't.

I may have to fall back on VCA but that might out my identity.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Loading kagerou.exe

Lol coincidence

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Kaguya, if you're town, there's something that should give you pause on me. Dai had a mound of evidence against them (even though Dai was town). Why would scum!me shoot my main suspect with one elimination to go effectively ruining my credibility?

You talk a lot about strategic moves and that one doesn't make sense.

It also doesn't make sense not to resort Riesen here.

I'm agreeing with Yuuka as of now, but far from locked in. Yuuka/Riesen can also be a thing. Tbh, I can see Reisen with anyone.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I'm also concerned by the lack of consideration of Marisa here minorly.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Scratch that last one. Marisa's dead.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Dai had a mound of evidence against them (even though Dai was town). Why would scum!me shoot my main suspect with one elimination to go effectively ruining my credibility?

I townread Dai pretty heavily, what was even the case there? Actually probably doesn't matter compared to how likely Dai was to getting limmed. I'm phoneposting rn, what were the Dai stances before the shot?

Dai fmpov had none and all the dead suspected Dai so maybe I'm not the best judge. I didn't hear a single reason to townread Dai.

I think Dai was killed to frame me tbh rather than Dai's reads.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

If you look closely, what I was doing wasn't mechsolving (not that good at it) but flavor solving (touhou nerd) and it's where the disconnect is coming from you.

Like yes, in hindsight I should have realized that if the game needs Reisen to be a spellblocker GIF can fudge the flavor enough to force it through. I wasn't thinking in those terms though, I was thinking in the "ok she's Reisen/Flandre/etc., what design space would their flavoring let them strictly occupy" and came to the conclusion that a strict interpretation of Reisens flavoring wouldn't let her Spellblock while a strict interpretation of Flandres flavoring would let her perform something that'd look like a spellblock by destroying Sanae's spellcards and this short-circuited the question of "ok what if we fudge the flavoring a little"

Simple thing though...names can be different. See my passive.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Honestly, at the current pace winning a 1v1 with kagerou would also be trivial.

I’m trying to say this and I want to say this again. I really, really, really want you to case Reisen and tell me why they’re scum or hell, I’ll take a revelation and Reisen is town and I’m scum with Kagerou over this.

I think EoD yesterday does this. It was a rushed lim that no one thought through to protect Riesen. The analysis was supposedly if Marisa voted, she'd control the lim. If we had the opportunity to think, we'd just leash her not to use it. She suspected Riesen.

If Marisa had suspected town, then letting her use it is not a problem as she dies in elo if wrong. If Marisa had suspected scum, then she couldn't dare vote.

If Marisa was scum, why randomly trade herself?

Scum definitely made that play.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Which is odd for Kagerou, a player who has allegedly viewed things through a strategic elimination not to pick up the proper play from both sides there.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

**Kaguya

Screw similar names

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Kagerou are you saying that the proper play yesterday was to leash Marisa yesterday?
Is that really the correct one without the value of hindsight? Our negotiating position is largely, “if you don’t kill who Koshi/Aya says today or let it play out how we want you to” we’ll kill you tommorrow.

But What about a sacrifice play or the Marisa scum team had a shot(or some ability like it) or Marisa just goofed as scum because they were sick and forgot to push it through?

In retrospect, yes. I should have realized, that the wagon went through too easily, more people than usual were present and could push it through.

Marisa probably even sick would not have popped it and then forgot to vote immediately. There was a lack of tension there.

But not claiming it before hand was…sigh.
And, of course saying they had an objective guilty on me was also sigh.

I dunno. From my perspective there wasn’t a very high chance they were town faking a guilty on me and I didn’t think they were bluffing with that pop of an ability plus misreading their own ability, I know that people have had trouble interpreting their abilities, but that one in their role pm was pretty explicitly worded. It wasn’t easily missed.
So, very weird.

Oh well.

If scum Marisa did push a lim through, she died tomorrow unless she bussed. All quadvotes are disabled in melo/elo (mod quoted it somewhere) so scum couldn't have won the game there.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Ngl, I find it brilliant play in a town Reisen world for Kaguya to play this way.

Why?

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Honestly, at the current pace winning a 1v1 with kagerou would also be trivial.

Sitting at Kaguya = Reisen > Kagerou.


I have to figure this out. /:

It feels like you're arguing from a position that's assigned to you rather than analyzing.

Riesen's off limits. Why?
We must be in a 1 v 1. Why?
Yuuka feels like an afterthought. Why?


Fmpov, I know one of you must be scum. There's a remote chance you both are (unlikely). There's no harm in looking at every setup.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I'm not voting and I'll be out this weekend.

My order (from scum to town)

Riesen



Kaguya

Yuuka

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

How does Kagerou talk about optimal play last day phase and then come into this day phase voting me out the gate.

How.

I can be logical and forget things at the same time. Logic is only as good as the input, which is why I welcome being checked.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Their wording implies that they would have tried to to leash Marisa if given the chance, but when they posted they didn't discourage anyone going after Marisa or take the reins in regards to Marisa's play that day phase, they were just like, "Oh wow that's interesting, excuse me everyone I'll just be over here, figuring out what my role does!"

I had zero expectation of a speedlim.

I wanted to understand myself before even having an opinion.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Yuuka this isn’t working I’m just townreading kagerou more.

Typo?

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Yuuka this isn’t working I’m just townreading kagerou more.

Typo?

?

Why in the world would you TR me?

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

@Kagerou:
1. Delegating responsibility to stop a wagon is, in those circumstances, largely indistinguishable from "I could have totally stopped them, but, as scum, why would I interrupt the town when they're making a mistake? oh, role so shiny"
2. Please respond to why forgetting my role made your play more logical in a melo situation.

1. You can't stop a freight train you don't expect to come.
2. If you forget you notify each visitor is scum, then you see guilty, vote guilty.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

For the record, I am going along with Aya decides the lim. I'm not sure it's the best.

Aya picks one of us to vote first instead. That's a 50% chance to hit scum. Then, even if wrong, a town would have a 2/3 chance of hitting scum at random.

Once the 1 v 1 is declared, then Aya picks the lim with input.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

2. If you forget you notify each visitor is scum, then you see guilty, vote guilty.

What did burglary give you from Yuuka

Sunflower

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

The recent push against Reisen and the incredulity they’re being town read, isn’t really coming up elsewhere. They don’t *sound* like they think they deserve to be scum read for their play.

But when they talked to Reisen they implied they should’ve been. Albeit I’m not clear on exactly what they thought Reisen should be scum reading them for

That's misconstruing what I said. I felt they were most likely scum, so I want their reasons for townreading me to assess.

Yuuka, what's your solve?

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I'll be back later tonight.

Aya, can you bold anything relevant?

Are you following my plan?

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

It's a skill thing, depends how good the town are at finding the town and how good the scum are at hiding it after that discussion + how easy it is to convince town to vote wrong.

From a pure numbers pov, 60% town voice, is worse than 100% town making the choice.

... It's still 100% town making the choice, just with more data.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Got the prod. Reading Aya's ISO

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

If Kagerou lurks to deadline and/or doesn't get replaced I might literally scream

I'm just pretty over this game. I can't find the town in the three. Gun to my head it's Yuuka but I don't know.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I'm in an emergency work project. Be back in a few hours. In the meantime, I am of the opinion to kill Reisen. Sorry my performance could be better.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Aya's posting up a storm in that dead thread.


fffffffuuuuu

never going to live this down if I fuck up here.

Honestly, I'd be a little sus of me based off yesterday but I think Reisen just hammerred before I would and thought I'd be too gone.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Okay, if you don’t want to try that is your prerogative.

I’m not interested in forcing you to play mafia unless it involves some guarantee I’ll listen. If affirmation is what you want out of mafia instead of getting it right for the sake of getting it right: Or winning for the sake of winning. That’s cool.

No, I just know how this tends to go. You've telegraphed your intentions.

I -did my job-. I got it right, but only because I decided it was more important to follow the word of someone who played the game far longer than I had. And honestly if the roles were reversed and I were in your shoes, I probably follow the word of the clear here as well. No resentment but don't ask me to dance for you when your mind's made up.

Why would you be "dancing for her" if you felt she could be scum here? Doesn’t your mind sound made up or do you just know she's town?

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I'm in an emergency work project. Be back in a few hours. In the meantime, I am of the opinion to kill Reisen. Sorry my performance could be better.

Got it, Reisen is already voting you.

VOTE: Reisen

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Yuuka, while I appreciate direct opinions with citations as solving, it's not useful for me to assess what your concerns are. I'd like to be efficient with my time and not waste it on irrelevant things. I spend a lot of time filtering evidence on what I think is relevant but ultimately you're the judge with that decision.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Games of mafia can always be pointless, there's no guarantee that you'll win or be able to persuade someone, that's part of the challenge of the game.

This is a major part of why I play. An anonymous game does fuel my interest for this reason despite me possibly being obvious.

It also trains me to understand how others think.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Yuuka, while I appreciate direct opinions with citations as solving, it's not useful for me to assess what your concerns are. I'd like to be efficient with my time and not waste it on irrelevant things. I spend a lot of time filtering evidence on what I think is relevant but ultimately you're the judge with that decision.

Can you point to any posts that you think demonstrate that Reisen is scum. Or any posts that you've made that demonstrate you are town?

@Reisen, same question.

I'll answer this a bit broadly on the Reisen scum question and it bleeds a bit into why I'm town. Kaguya never considered Reisen and would never consider Reisen yesterday even as a hypothetical. They consistently pushed me which reeked of going for the win.

As for demonstrating I'm town, I've made mistakes but they've decisions that show a thought process that can be tracked. Posts not made by me are harder as I don't know the intent behind them just that they're good.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

VOTE: Reisen

Sorry, I just can't make it through all the way with this lizard voice in my head from Disco Elysium telling me to, "vvvote R-reisen, they're scumsss."

It just won't quit.

GG, I am very sorry if I'm wrong. It takes a lot for me to skip ahead like this. I really, genuinely, hope I did enough.

Good game.

*bites nails*

We won. Thank you for not omgus tunnelling. I know I was highly flawed and honestly didn't deserve to win.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

Oh, and I'm sorry for my behavior this game. I need to learn not to snap at people or belittle them just because I'm frustrated, confused, or want them to show me that they're town.

We've all done it. Not perfection. I have no hard feelings and I hope you can forgive me.

[Kagerou Imaizumi]

I'm not proud of my performance this game. Due to reality and other issues, I don't think it helps either. I'll be staying hidden.