C9++ April Fools
read the setup- what happens in the case of a tie in votes? A: broken randomly
half asleep first post bad
86 bad post
Cee Mirage seems town
112 bad post- link to Black agreeing with Hu Tao
note 118. Then if Moros didn’t die, Elements probably not scum but scum feared Elements was actually telling the truth
experience feels scummy again on p6
128 Black+Moros not paired
133 Moros throwing a scum partner into its pool of 'scumreads'?
note CSF’s 153+158
lmao at Cee Mirage’s parody of Ranger’s catch-up on page 7
182 Imaginality defends CSF
186- oh is it, experience?
189 Cee Mirage point to look back at?
192 the 'queen' feels like Black and Titus aren’t partnered
193 interesting but i also townread CSF so maybe NAI
211 Think about OopsieDaisy’s reaction
214 why does CM doing Ranger’s reads preclude Drew from doing them?
Page 9 etc. Black Ranger lurking
229 interesting post, but Ming was just VT
230 good Imaginality post
231 oh really Elements? Backing out?
234 OD fail (lmao overdose)
Black feels different and townie (from before) (:
241 yep I agree Black
242 I also somewhat agree Black
244 funny post
145 from CSF=? Hmmmm
247 good CM post
249 bad LG post
266 CSF soft defending Imaginality?
20 second gap 288 to 289 Black active townie?
293 AIRPORT PLANE SCUM SCUM OMG OD SCUM?
316 probs NAI but idk
321 Elements is just sheeting black. Elements/Imaginality might be the scum team.
Black/ha not the scum team based off of 325 not being synced up
329 Moros wanted to vote Imaginality, Imaginality might be the sk.
341 experience not SK/vig
345 Cee Mirage slips to be Aureal!
353 Imaginality would now rather have Ming than Moros
355 Oh really OD? You liked Imaginality’s posting?
358 interesting anti-OD point from awesome
371 reply to this with "he’s smart (:"
375 Alianna crumbing the night action lmao
381 meh vote from halfasleep
393+394 extremely lazy from Experience
421 note the (potential
)accuracy here. maybe Imaginality is SK after all
422 well it’s not me!!
433 could be interesting to analyse, tho idk what to make of it
435 Elements is disengaged
@Cee Mirage‘s 439: maybe, maybe
P19 Black not noticing Aureal‘s altslip is interesting
475 reply with 'yes' (@484 AHAHA town?)
478 Drew‘s pro-black point noted
498 spooky vote from Experience
499 and 500 20 second delay, kinda scummy for not being instantaneous as don’t need to let Alianna get the pagetops this game.
502 bringing CSF somewhat back into the limelight feels +town for OD(Imaginality mentioned this in 607 and I agree (: )
510 potential day 1 VC
503-520 opportunistic from OD?
534 RIP CM
537 end of n0
554 weird from OD, cos like, of course you should vote there!…
560 elements diverting from CSF
561 OD hedging
575 Elements diverting off their buddy?
577 the fact Imaginality isn’t considering 1-shot vig here probably gives them SK equity
587 Elements spreading confusion
598 OD probably not the vig/SK
603-604: that was quick, experience!
605 weird inconclusive hedging from Experience
607 yeah this is a good post from imaginality
614 reply with "yeah me three"
622 interesting Imaginality anti-elements point. He also agrees again that OD/CSF don’t seem to be paired
624 LG declares Imaginality as locktown. So why Imaginality not been nked?
634 well cited by OD
640 weird list from elements. why not offer a read either way to the light+CSF situation? and why only have two tiers: “can vote” and "Won’t vote tomorrow"? Is there no differentiation between anyone in the first tier? Even the "tomorrow" in the second tier feels hedgey.
641 OD had forgotten halfasleep existed. not many posts from her so fair. idk if this is AI but maybe is slightly towny to point out she forgot HA existed
665 etc. others are reading Black as town, too
667 cool idea from Imaginality, as it is of benefit to the town it might be coming from the mindset of town!Imaginality.
669 pointing this out is a bit strange from experience mefeels but idkkkkk
673 woahh so true I’ve been doing something similarrrrr
695 experience saying "I think" is maybe also kind of hedgeyyyyy
698 experience pushing for who Ming voted feels pretty good though
714 and before Black vs Drew kinda maybe just feels like TvT
718 viva la wifom from CFS (:
727 "lead the town" feels towny from Black (: )
740 interesting from Drew. Did Black nk him or is she being framed?
Imaginality improving their posting n1 as alluded to by OD in 638 could have been acting scummier/nuller n0 to avoid being NKed (source: see what happened to Cee Mirage
)
P30 Black annoyed at Drew scumreadimg her but idk what to make of it
752 "It’s just not a good read" sounds kinda frustrated towny maybe but probs NAI
769 OD following up on HA‘s AMA
771 772 3 minute gap then is interesting but then HA does semiaccuse OD
793-795 were towny from OD tho
809 Imaginality seems like a good post
810 Ming‘s last words: go for Elements and OD
816 potential Mason crumb but as they’re friends, unlikely
820 end of n1
835+837 feel true from Black
840 true dat from Imaginality
855 reply to the last bit with "It‘s not"
864 OD wondering how to hunt an sk feels genuine. +865 is a good thing
869 Imaginality might be having a bit too much fun talking about serial killers
878 Black remembering to come back to that post feels honest and towny
883 reply with dont think about it too hard, beyond us probably not being SK because that’s too fun a role to pass up
886 Black certain that there are 2 mafia left is interesting
895 reply to the end with "don‘t do that"
899 reply to the end with "not a good lim"
900 might be towny to come back a lot later and correct it but could also be panicky scum so idk
919 reply with "I agree"
923 sk!Imaginality might be gathering people‘s thoughts to help know who to NK
I like 931 from Black here
934 could be a good point from Black, unless it was preplanned from Black+CAF team feels pretty valid
Black reaction to my entrance feels kinda towny, scum!her might be scared and cowering in a corner. And in general I think there is a genuine desire to solve coming through more so than ever this time.
924 HA not considering 1scum 1 so left is weird. Imaginality above (in post 923)at least said "E.g." to leave some to the imagination
Claimed votes:
d1:
Black Ranger: light, OD, CSF, Thomith, Imaginality (666), Black (768), Ming (783)
Ming: HA (591), experience (604)
Black: Drew (600)
Confirmed by experience in 659
d2:
Daisy: Black (823)
Ming: OD (824), Light (828), Imaginality (831), Experience (849), HA (867)
I think Light’s claim is true (not SvS). It’s entirely possible an unclaimed 1-shot cop with a random green check would decimate her when she claimed 1-shot cop.
Let C be the number of cops rolled
C~B(7,0.15)
P(C=0)= around 0.4
P(C=1)=7C1(0.15)(0.85)^6=0.3960
P(C=2)=0.2097
P(C=3)=0.0109
If C=1, she would be hard CCed. If C=2 she would be likely CCed, as 2C almost 20 times as likely as 3C. So it’s a very risky gambit mefeels. So why wasn’t Light killed yesterday? *insert spiderman meme about no u no u for the light kill* or they guessed she was one-shot or just generally wanted to cause paranoia
For scum setup stuff:
Let T be number of vanilla townies rolled.
T~B(7,1/2)
a priori:
P(TTTTTTT)= 0.0078
P(TTTTTT)= 0.0547
P(TTTTT)= 0.1641
P(TTTT)= 0.2734
P(TTT)= 0.2734
P(TT)= 0.1641
P(T)= 0.0547
P(-)= 0.0078
