Mini 701 - That's a Wrap! (Game Over)

[orangepenguin]

I am leaning towards vollkan scum though, FYI.

I know, I am the biggest flip-flopper in the world.

[Ectomancer]

I liked post 899. You should post like that.

[Ectomancer]

Alright, some things that need to be talked about.

Mykonian, what are your parting thoughts?
Vollan, what are your parting thoughts?

Both of you are dead. There may be a delay if we hit town today, but you are both dead.

[vollkan]

I dont agree with the criticism of Mykonian's play surrounding a CC. His play is consistent with someone trying to get scum lynched without being forced to counterclaim.

Which is nonsense play because:
1) Chance of lynch without CC = tiny; and
2) Delayed CC = less believable
3) Risk of CCing under suspicion = WAY less believable

Vollkan: this is the second game I've played with you. This is the second time you've claimed doctor. The first game you were lying. Naturally, that leads me to be suspicious. The fact that you drew attention to your previous doc fakeclaim seems to be very WIFOMic behavior.

1) One past fakeclaim does not a meta make
2) My behaviour is not WIFOMic. Not once have I made the WIFOM argument "I revealed my history which makes it less likely I am scum". As I said, I revealed the history, to my own detriment, to avert the charge of concealment.

Right off the bat, Mykonian was aggressive against the doc claim

Which is exactly what we would expect from Myk-scum when Orto had also been expressing doubts.

Also, the previously mentioned post about "when there is no doc." Common power roles tend to downplay the possibility of them being in the game as a way of taking the spotlight off themselves.

Yes, but he said that AFTER my claim. Why in god's name would doc-Myk say that in a situation where he should very clearly have been able to see the risk of it coming down to a credibility battle between myself and himself. It only makes sense if he hadn't contemplated a doc claim - ie. IF HE WAS SCUM.

As such, suggesting that there is no doc is a massive tell and breadcrumb of BEING the doc to me.

*facepalm*

I had second thoughts of mykonian. I thought for sure he was scum because of the delayed counter claim, and just the weirdness of it, but I am not so sure anymore,

especially with the way vollkan is acting.

The way I am acting? Explain.

Vollan, what are your parting thoughts?

Masons are confirmed town, but should still be taken critically.
Spyrex is very very likely town and every argument presented against him thus far is absolute crap. When I come up dead and am flipped (if I'm not lynched, I am almost certainly going to be NKed), know that I will be turning in my grave if anybody pursues Spyrex based on any of the garbage presented against him so far.
SL and DJ are scummy
TDC and Ixfij I am neutral on, but I worried because I don't have any clear read which suggests a lack of material
Ecto is neutral for me.

[SpyreX]

I'm not understanding this new wave of absence of criticism for the play around the CC.

What purpose does it serve to beat around the bush - especially after..ohh.. almost half the town expressed Volkan wasn't going to get lynched without a CC. Even if, at that point, you were hesitant wouldn't the next post be "Fuck it, I'm the doc."

(As an aside, I would have probably lynched Volk even with my pro-town feelings if Myk had immediately CC'd.)

Instead, letting it go until Myk was becoming the lynch choice - it reeks of desperation. I mean, going from probably screwed to a 50-50 chance of surviving the day (and guaranteeing the other scum doesn't get lynched tomorrow AND getting a PR killed to boot) is about the best bet as scum when you think you're boned.

Not immediately CCing when you KNOW someone is lying really, really bothers me - it doesn't make sense, to me, as town behavior.

[ortolan]

Masons are confirmed town, but should still be taken critically.
Spyrex is very very likely town and every argument presented against him thus far is absolute crap. When I come up dead and am flipped (if I'm not lynched, I am almost certainly going to be NKed), know that I will be turning in my grave if anybody pursues Spyrex based on any of the garbage presented against him so far.
SL and DJ are scummy
TDC and Ixfij I am neutral on, but I worried because I don't have any clear read which suggests a lack of material
Ecto is neutral for me.

Can we have more on that? I'm particularly curious about why DJ is scummy and why Ecto, TDC and fixij are neutral.

[vollkan]

I'm not understanding this new wave of absence of criticism for the play around the CC.

What purpose does it serve to beat around the bush - especially after..ohh.. almost half the town expressed Volkan wasn't going to get lynched without a CC. Even if, at that point, you were hesitant wouldn't the next post be "Fuck it, I'm the doc."

(As an aside, I would have probably lynched Volk even with my pro-town feelings if Myk had immediately CC'd.)

Instead, letting it go until Myk was becoming the lynch choice - it reeks of desperation. I mean, going from probably screwed to a 50-50 chance of surviving the day (and guaranteeing the other scum doesn't get lynched tomorrow AND getting a PR killed to boot) is about the best bet as scum when you think you're boned.

Not immediately CCing when you KNOW someone is lying really, really bothers me - it doesn't make sense, to me, as town behavior.

Spyrex, you're an oasis of sense; you know that?

Can we have more on that? I'm particularly curious about why DJ is scummy and why Ecto, TDC and fixij are neutral.

Meandering accusations against myself and Spyrex: eg. Spyrex as evasive and me as cherrypicking. See my posts for more detail.

Ecto, TDC and Ixfij are neutral because, by and large, they haven't been using much craplogic or anything else especially objectionable to me. That said, I think TDC and Ifxij in particular have flown under the radar more so than Ecto, which makes Ecto somewhat less worrisome for me.

[ortolan]

and who do you think is scummier out of DJ and SL?

[don_johnson]

myk was on the block, but i don't remember him being a definite lynch when volkan claimed.

volkan: why did you bring up another game? you say you didn't create the wifom, but you actually did. it is as null a tell as the breadcrumbing, but it certainly casts doubt on your motivations.

also, you were accused of cherrypicking because you did it. there was nothing meandering about the case against you.

[SpyreX]

Spyrex, you're an oasis of sense; you know that?

Just like you've been. Of course, thats why if I'm wrong about Myk I both applaud and am pissed at you for being scum.

myk was on the block, but i don't remember him being a definite lynch when volkan claimed.

When he(volk)

claimed

- no, not slam dunk: but definitely a major contender. At the time of the claim (assuming no CC) it was going to really be you or Myk based on the flow of things. Attacking before the CC pushed it immediately to him being the lynch choice - hence, the claim.

and who do you think is scummier out of DJ and SL?

Do tell, Volk. I want to see who wins the Miss Scum pagent.

[SpyreX]

Just because I'm awake and there's not too much going on some raw conjecture:

This, for whichever of them is scum, seems like a bad play to me. Taking out the doc to sacrifice 1/2 of the scum day one and in the process confirming a town (assuming they hit a mason and not after the softclaim or anyone else) isn't going to be a solid trade. Also, if they opt to hit a mason then fix gets free reign (assuming no RB) to do what he wants AND its gambling there are no power roles.

And that is in the best case scenario (for scum) that we mislynch now and they're not forced to hit the doc OR risk 3/8 confirmed tomorrow. At that point, its almost a raw numbers game where we could lynch randomly and have a high chance of winning.

So, yea, regardless I think we've a more than average chance of winning this (assuming 2 and not 3 scum). Even with 3, its an odd tradeoff but a more understandable one.

[vollkan]

and who do you think is scummier out of DJ and SL?

Hard to say. I mean, SL hasn't posted in a long while so it's a little hard to gauge a direct comparison. For their behaviour, they would both be good lynches (though obviously Mykonian is the best by far). Forced to choose, I'd pick SL if only because DJ has been able to explain the Spyrex part of his things, albeit with the tawdry excuse about it being general, whereas SL's arguments were subjective puff from beginning to end.

myk was on the block, but i don't remember him being a definite lynch when volkan claimed.

See Spyrex's comments on this.

If my claim was accepted, it was either going to be Mykonian or yourself, and don't forget that I had my vote on Mykonian so that's what I would have been pushing.

volkan: why did you bring up another game? you say you didn't create the wifom, but you actually did. it is as null a tell as the breadcrumbing, but it certainly casts doubt on your motivations.

In the other game (Iceman Mafia) I fakeclaimed doc as scum.

It would be wifomic if I had brought it up and said something like:

vollkan-scum has no motivation to bring up that game, so that should be a towntell

But I didn't do that.

The reason I brought up the other game was because, if I didn't, I knew I would get howls of rage from people accusing me of trying to hide that game.

In other words, my reference to the game is completely a null-tell and I only did it to protect myself against a potential accusation.

also, you were accused of cherrypicking because you did it. there was nothing meandering about the case against you.

You might very well think that, but I've argued my point on this already.

[don_johnson]

If my claim was accepted, it was either going to be Mykonian or yourself, and don't forget that I had my vote on Mykonian so that's what I would have been pushing.

why should i not forget this?

[vollkan]

If my claim was accepted, it was either going to be Mykonian or yourself, and don't forget that I had my vote on Mykonian so that's what I would have been pushing.

why should i not forget this?

Because I suspected both you and Mykonian, but my vote was on him. In other words, he couldn't rely on me going after you on consensus.

[mykonian]

Last thoughts

There are people who seem to see how I played. There is one that only keeps talking about how bad my counterclaim was. Well I know that now, won't do it again. But there are more people that think it is a bad play, but still see that I would do it as doc. However, Spyrex can't. Yet spyrex has been close to vollkan all the time, would scum do that? Spyrex you confuse me here.

Don would have done some massive distancing by now, so apart from far from optimal play, he actually is probably town.

I forgot most about SL

TDC and mrfixij. Have been reasonable most of the game.

Ecto. I had a protown feeling here all the game.

O, and I missed the masons: confirmed.

[TDC]

vollkan: Your suspicions do not seem to take into account that the second scum would need to be mykonian's partner.
Is there anything you have noticed about connections between anyone and mykonian?

[vollkan]

vollkan: Your suspicions do not seem to take into account that the second scum would need to be mykonian's partner.
Is there anything you have noticed about connections between anyone and mykonian?

I haven't been looking for connections, no. That's something I tend to do after I get one scum confirmed, and I haven't had the time to do that sort of analysis since Mykonian claimed.

[ortolan]

would you care to now? ~

it would be ever so helpful before your lynch/nightkill

[vollkan]

Right-o

Basically, an entry for each player re Myk. Kind of PBP-ish, except focussed on relationship rather than on normal scumtells

Mykonian to other players

(I will do the other way around next post)

DJ

Nothing on any of DJ's antecedents. As far as I can see, the first substantive mention of DJ is in post 74, so that's where I am beginning from (I have tried Ctrl+Fing "DJ" and "don", and that's the first I cna find. Anyway,
528: Thinks DJ's Spyrex case is going nowhere (well duh!)
530: Asks DJ to explain his reasons for suspecting Spyrex.
538, 540: wants DJ to reread before continuing
571: Says his "observation on don is way from strong" - not sure what that means. Rejects DJ's Spyrex case, and criticises it for mostly just coming from the first few pages. But no attack or anything on DJ for it. He also accuses Spyrex of OMGUSing DJ for attacking DJ for the attacks. This is the first post that, I think, is supporting of DJ/Myk; reason being that Myk avoids any alignment-based comment on the implications of the crap case, and also makes a dodgy chainsaw defence of Spyrex (note: It is not dodgy because it is chainsaw. It is dodgy becasue of the abuse of "OMGUS" to attack Spyrex's legitimate arguments against DJ's crappy "case")
584: Votes DJ and asks for question answers on the quotes from Spyrex.
Repeats this questoin for the next few posts
671: Says he is on Spyrex's side wrt DJ and that DJ is "completely attacking the wrong person".
673: This comes after I asked Myk: "Do you think DJ is scummy?" He says: "If mrfixij wasn't so obviously hiding, don would be my first choice." This is an intersting answer because, of course, Myk had his vote on DJ at this point and had been fairly critical of DJ. I don't get why Ixfij's "obvious" (was it?) hiding was enough to dislocate this.
679: Hmm...This one is quotable for posterity's sake:

I think don should know that his case is rubbish, while he says now that he actually did. The case against spyrex was a dead one, and it would be very scummy if he had kept it. I've got to reread the situation to see if my vote on don is justified. In case not: mrfixij, you will see my vote back on you.

I note this because I am very interested to see if this stance varies over time.
700: Asks DJ to reread and stop coming up with "caseless" votes. Gives a new top three of: Don, Mrfixij, Ecto.

Important:

Owing to basic distancing norms, this makes it somewhat less likely that TDC and Spyrex are scum. Why? Because scum will very typically, in my experience, include their buddy/s on a list of suspects. It's a form of mild distancing and enables them to flip targets to bus without appearing inconsistent.
711: Now this is interesting. This is the post which contains the point which pulled my Myk suspicion over the line:

Spyrex´s action (asking for a deadline) was very scummy. And he points out what we all know about vollkan: his post are close to unreadable, and most of it tells nothing about the game. Vollkan uses subjective arguments. I haven's checked out the post don mentioned, but I believe him on that. Simply because I felt it before. I don't think vollkan-scum is to good for using strawmanning. As long as you don't get caught it is fun, isn't it?

What's interesting is that he is so prepared to take DJ's arguments on faith, when DJ is, by all indications, extremely suspected by Mykonian. This is a scumtell in and of itself (opportunistic support). Is it a relationship tell? Harder to say; it makes sense as scum-Myk to town-DJ so I am treating it as a relationship null for now.

733: Apparently, DJ deserves Myk's vote "much more" than me; and, apparently, "He only makes empty statements"; and "it is not like he is close to being as scummy as don". Couldn't agree more.
744: Says DJ is scummiest in the game, mentions that he voted twice and hasn't strung a coherent case.
746: Says DJ was following Ixfij (above distancing thing says this increases likelihood of Myk/DJ or Myk/Ixfij). Repeats the argument against DJ re no case.
761: Votes DJ, for the lack of cases and the whole "gambit" shamozzle
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Conclusions: Two main things consistent with them being buddies:
1) The fact that Myk's professed level of suspicion didn't match his argumentation - Myk consistently had high levels of suspicion on DJ, but never engaged in any leading critical analysis of DJ. It began with just questioning, and even by the end, Myk's "case" was the absence of cases by DJ and the atrocious "gambit" thing. Quite simply, it has the appearance of suspicion without pushing DJ toward a lynch.
2) The dodgy chainsaw (again, I use the word 'dodgy' to indicate that it is not the chainsawing itself which is problematic, but the poor logic)
3) The list of three "suspects" included DJ.

[don_johnson]

this is an interesting piece of conjecture. these opinions, however, are based on the fact that you are not scum. at this point, we can't even be sure that either of you is town.

mykonian has been hammering me as hard as you have from the beginning. funny how the fact that i did not vote for spyrex is irrelevant to my defense, but now you seem to point out that you were not voting for me. you didn't produce very much in the way of pushing a lynch on mykonian, in fact, to me it appears that you left your vote on him for just such a reason. it is plain obvious that i will be lynched, so why would my scum partner come out of the shadows to prevent it? if anyone, you have shown the propensity for attacking me from a safe distance. mykonians voting pattern is erratic, but it is consistently erratic, and his vote on me comes from way back. again you talk about "distancing norms" as though you have some sort of strategy figured out. the mathematical fact is that scum are no more likely to distance than they are to buddy up in this particular game. when i looked up "finding the doctor" in wiki, it clearly states that the doctor is the most powerful town role and should be kept hidden until the last possible moment, and that that fact often results in situations like this one. if you want to play by the book then we'll play by the book.

vote: volkan

i cannot see this one sided agenda, coupled with breadcrumbing and a premature claim as town behavior.

[mykonian]

mod, can we have a votecount?

I would love to hear more of vollkans opinions on other people. I know you liked to attack don, I want you to say something about your scumbuddy too. Now you are missing some persons

[Rage]

Vote Count - Day 1

With 10 alive, 6 votes is majority.

mykonian - 2 (Spyrex, vollkan)

vollkan - 4 (ortolan, don_johnson, mykonian, springlullaby)

Not Voting - 4 (orangepenguin, mrfixij, Ectomancer, TDC)

vollkan

is at L-2, two votes from a lynch.

[SpyreX]

There are people who seem to see how I played. There is one that only keeps talking about how bad my counterclaim was. Well I know that now, won't do it again. But there are more people that think it is a bad play, but still see that I would do it as doc. However, Spyrex can't. Yet spyrex has been close to vollkan all the time, would scum do that? Spyrex you confuse me here.

Its not a function of "as doc". Considering this is a mini normal, the chances of a duplicated PR are minimal. Hence, as ANY PR I can't see stringing along a CC until you start getting votes versus power-dropping the CC immediately and watching someone get hung.

1.) The chances of a claimed PR that has a very high chance of being in the game (doc, cop, etc) getting hung without a CC day one is infinitesimally small.
2.) The chances of Volkan getting hung IF you had immediately counterclaimed are very high (this is true REGARDLESS of the alignments of either of you).
3.) Waiting like you did lends a lot of credence to the idea that you are doing it as a last ditch effort to survive.

In addition, I have had problems with parts of your play throughout the day versus my infatuation with Volkan's (including the potential secret hammer). So, the logic around the claim

and the fact you have been scummier

make me more comfortable with you.

Like I said though, regardless this outcome is going to be a net negative for the scum so I'm cool either way.

[mrfixij]

vote: vollkan

I already explained myself before. I just didn't want to cut off discussion with a hammer.

VOLLKAN IS NOW AT L-1!!!

[mykonian]

So don't hammer until he has talked about everyone. There will be some use in it, even if it is wifom.