Mini 692: Boost Mafia (Game Over!)


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Post Post #750 (ISO) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 2:30 am

Post by Elmo »

Day 2, Vote Count #1 - Lynching

Huntress <- sthar8

Boost Count

TDC (2) <- Raging Rabbit, sthar8
eldarad <- TDC
Raging Rabbit <- Incognito

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch/boost. Prodding will probably restart within about a week. In the meantime, hope you all have a happy new year!
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Post Post #751 (ISO) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 3:06 am

Post by eldarad »

Huntress wrote:If the scum had a booster it would be a reasonable assumption for them to make that the town had one too, so the more info they could get about who people were willing to boost, the better.
I disagree. I don't think it is at all reasonable for the scum to assume that any power roles they have are also present in the town.
In fact, I would say the opposite. If the mafia received a Boost ability then they have received a power that is not much good to the mafia in and of itself, but is confirmable.
That is a fairly common thing to happen, and I wouldn't expect a mafia in that scenario to expect to see a similar pro-town Booster given the fact that the whole game revolves around the town having the ability to collectively boost people during the Day.
Huntress wrote:You asked me that question because I hadn't said who else I was willing to boost. In hindsight I can see a possible motive for it. Even if the scum don't have a booster of their own they might have guessed at the existence of one.
I asked you the question because you had avoided expressing an opinion on who you thought should be boosted - although you were vocal in criticising the current boost choice(s).
Huntress wrote:I was implying that they might want the information to help decide on a night kill, not a boost.
OK, I can see how scum would want to know who was thought to be pro-town by other townies in order to inform their kill choice. But they get that anyway - Elmo posts regular boost-vote counts.

I'm only half-way through thinking about Huntress' claim in the light of the Night-kills, but the idea that Huntress is scum with a confirmable ability is very persuasive.
~~~
sthar8 wrote:Eldarad: how could we test electra's information reliably?
We could boost someone 3 times.
Now, I recognise that the presence of potential roles like, say, a roleblocker (boostblocker?) could distort this, as could us boosting a scum 3 times...as they would lie to confirm Electrascum's information.
But then if we boost someone else 3 times and they still have the power activated then we've just caught two scum.

So it is testable, even if it isn't easy. But that is good enough for me.

~~~
Incog's claimed vig-kill has a ring of truth about it. Even if he did kill a doc ;-)
boost Incog
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Post Post #752 (ISO) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 7:31 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I got to page 10, skimming the whole Incog - SL thing. Notes:

sthar's claim seems shaky given his original posting. For one, sthar, I'd like to know how you "narrowed down your potential powers to two options", and why you think proving your double vote will in any way confirm you?

Considering Jahudo's response to the SL - Incog, I strongly think it was town - town.

Skillit's acting odd but the quick development of his wagon suggests he's a townie.

eldarad is looking much worse than I remembered. FZ is noncomital and not really scumhunting, and therefore scummy as well. Along with Jahudo they make a good possible scumteam.

Crazy was very dodgy, especially his big recap post, but given Huntress' claim we should at the very least give her some more time. Need to reread the end of the day to come up with a better opinion on her.

electra is probably town. TDC as well, possibly moreso.

Considering Incog's useful power and electra's info, I think the right play is to
boost: Incogito
and direct the second vig kill he's probably going to get as well as the lynch.

My vote will go to one of Iceman, eldarad, sthar, barring some drastic revealation. Will continue my read later.
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Post Post #753 (ISO) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 7:33 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Also, eldarad's above post is really scummy.
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Post Post #754 (ISO) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 8:48 am

Post by Green Crayons »

Huntress wrote:I was implying that they might want the information to help decide on a night kill, not a boost.
So you're suggesting that regardless of if the scum have a night-booster role ability they would not only assume that the town would have such a role but that you had that role and that you would boost whoever your second choice would be so they might as well kill that player so Eld went about trying to fish for your potential boost night target? ... Really?

Incog wrote:I think they begin with the ability they would normally have but might possibly gain a perk if boosted (I guess this could be compared to Electra's claimed information).
Didn't Electra claim mimic this lack of an ability until boosted?

Rabbit wrote:And everyone gets "an ability above and beyond the standard town mechanics for a game" when boosted, so no, that's not a PR (well, according to electra's info it's not everyone, but I still assume most people do and you didn't have that info before anyways).
Patrick wrote:
Special Notes


...

Don't try to determine alignments according to which names, if any, appear in lynch scenes; that's just flavour. Don't try to determine alignments based on wording of role PMs; it's useless in this game and I don't like it as a tactic. Below is a sample role PM. At least one of these exists in the game:
Sample Role PM wrote:You are an inhabitant of the town.

You win when all anti-town roles are eliminated.
Electra isn't the only one who already told us this information. We had it before the game started.

Rabbit wrote:and why you think proving your double vote will in any way confirm you?
sthar wrote:I think that the best use of my role is to claim now and alleviate any suspicions that my new power might be a kill.
This was before Incog outed himself. He has already stated why he would want to display his ability - to show people (namely you) that he wasn't a boosted killer as you suggested from post one of Day Two. It seems odd that you would set up a potential scenario where sthar would be the guilty party and then when sthar suggests a way to show that your scenario isn't true you fault him for it.

Rabbit wrote:Also, eldarad's above post is really scummy.
I felt the exact opposite after reading it. I agreed with all he had to say, except for the last bit concerning Electra's information. It's true that the suggested tactic is the only way to (currently) test Electra's information, but the number of variables that would need to align just right to ensure a viable outcome are too independent of our control to ensure success. Other than this poor suggestion, I don't see how you have come to the conclusion that the entire post was scummy.
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Post Post #755 (ISO) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 9:17 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

GC wrote:Electra isn't the only one who already told us this information. We had it before the game started.
That does not in any way imply that ordinary "inhabitants of the town" gain no benefit from being boosted.
GC wrote:This was before Incog outed himself. He has already stated why he would want to display his ability - to show people (namely you) that he wasn't a boosted killer as you suggested from post one of Day Two. It seems odd that you would set up a potential scenario where sthar would be the guilty party and then when sthar suggests a way to show that your scenario isn't true you fault him for it.
Having a double vote today doesn't necassarily prove he didn't get an extra boost kill - though in light of Incog's claim we know that likely wasn't the case. Besides, the phrase "confirm" implies, to me at least, that he thought proving his claim will somehow prove he's innocent, not only that he did not get an extra NK.

As for eldarad's post - the first part seems like rationalizing a predecided conclusion that Huntress is scummy, the suggestion regarding Electra is terrible and likely playing straight into scum's hands, and the last part with the wink smiley just gives me the shivers.
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Post Post #756 (ISO) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 1:02 pm

Post by Incognito »

Green Crayons, [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=1418822#1418822]in his 754[/url], wrote:
Incog wrote:I think they begin with the ability they would normally have but might possibly gain a perk if boosted (I guess this could be compared to Electra's claimed information).
Didn't Electra claim mimic this lack of an ability until boosted?
Yes, but there's a dramatic difference: Electra claimed to be
Vanilla
who happened to have this "clause" somewhere within her role PM that informed her of what would happen when she was boosted. sthar8 has claimed to be a
Power Role
whose power only works upon being boosted. There's a dramatic difference there and coupled with certain things that I noticed in his Day 1 play, which I plan on pointing out when I finally stop being lazy during the holidays, it makes me extremely suspicious of him.
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Post Post #757 (ISO) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 1:14 pm

Post by sthar8 »

Incog wrote:sthar8, according to your sig you've completed 5 games of forum Mafia on here. How much forum experience do you have outside of MS? How many games have you read just for the heck of it? In how many of your games on here and outside of here have you seen Day 1's where exactly both of the competing lynch wagons happened to be on scum?
This seems to be largely irrelevant and mainly fallacious to me, but I'll answer anyway.

I have played no forum mafia outside of MS. I have read
many
games for fun. I cannot recall any games where there were exactly two viable wagons on day 1 and both of them lead to scum. Do you have a logically valid point?
Incog wrote:Also, I might as well reveal why I'm suspicious of sthar8's claim. Judging by Guardian's reveal as Doctor and judging by my own role, I really don't think true town power roles need to be boosted in order to gain their abilities.
You based your alleged NK on such speculation and killed a doctor. I based one of my suspicions yesterday on such speculation and he flipped townie. Does this not tell you something?
eldarad wrote:We could boost someone 3 times.
Now, I recognise that the presence of potential roles like, say, a roleblocker (boostblocker?) could distort this, as could us boosting a scum 3 times...as they would lie to confirm Electrascum's information.
But then if we boost someone else 3 times and they still have the power activated then we've just caught two scum.
In addition, since our boosts are public information, electra-scum could just kill the boostee after the second time. This wastes a significant amount of time for no probable gain. I'm not saying I disbelieve electra, or think her any more scummy than I did yesterday, but I don't think this information is very confirmable at all.
RR wrote:That does not in any way imply that ordinary "inhabitants of the town" gain no benefit from being boosted.
No, but the fact that my role PM was different suggests to me that my power is above and beyond the standard town mechanics for a game, in the same way that cop, doc, and bulletproof townie are above and beyond a normal vanilla PM.
RR wrote:For one, sthar, I'd like to know how you "narrowed down your potential powers to two options"
I considered the flavor of the hints in my PM, and compared it to a list of roles in the wiki. Two seemed to fit more than others.
RR wrote:why you think proving your double vote will in any way confirm you?
Why are you so intent on quote mining my posts?

For the record, in my personal (irrelevant) opinion, proving that I am a double voter should increase the probability that I am town, as I believe that double voting is a very powerful scum ability that doesn't appear to fit well with what we know of the setup. In support of this, my second vote is anonymous, which means that the drawback of accountability is removed from any mislynch engineered using the vote. Without accountability, the ability is no longer restricted to only being useful in LYLO. As I have claimed my vote, the potential for abuse goes down significantly.
RR wrote:given Huntress' claim we should at the very least give her some more time.
To do what, exactly?
RR wrote:eldarad is looking much worse than I remembered.
I still don't see this, and it keeps coming up. Can you elaborate?
RR wrote:Having a double vote today doesn't necassarily prove he didn't get an extra boost kill
Wait, what? Are you suggesting that it'd be plausible for me to be double-voting, extra-killing scum, in a mini? Damn, you caught me. I'm also bulletproof, investigation-proof, and I've got three roleblocks per night.

I think we're wasting time right now.

I'm not sure what to think about Incog's claim. It is exceptionally plausible that he would have vigged guardian, but I'm very wary of an SK false claim. Also, vig powers seem to be very swingy, and I'm not really inclined to trust Incog after he vigged guardian for what was very clearly just poor play. Scum frequently try to disguise a case against poor play as genuine suspicion, especially early day 1, and Incog's attacks on SL fit the bill perfectly. Furthermore, Incog's support seems to always coincide with a player reducing their suspicion of him, and his major arguments always seem to have an element of "and this player doesn't like my play." Would it be viable to boost Incog in order to have him suicide before LYLO?

Unless someone can come up with a plan to test huntress's alignment, she is a very good lynch.

Iceman is also a definite possibility, but inactivity over the holiday is nonindicative, so I'll wait for him to come back and provide some content.
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Post Post #758 (ISO) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 1:19 pm

Post by Incognito »

After that response, I can't see you as anything
but
scum.

Vote: sthar8
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Post Post #759 (ISO) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 1:22 pm

Post by sthar8 »

EBWOP: missed Incog's post.

I really don't see what the difference is between electra's role and mine, except that she gains information while I gain a power.

And since neither you nor RR can be bothered to expand on your vague suspicions, I guess I'll just wait until I have something to respond to, rather than arguing on gut.
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Post Post #760 (ISO) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 1:50 pm

Post by Green Crayons »

Incog wrote: Electra claimed to be Vanilla who happened to have this "clause" somewhere within her role PM that informed her of what would happen when she was boosted. sthar8 has claimed to be a Power Role whose power only works upon being boosted.
Rereading the whole Rabbit/sthar exchange dealing with how to classify sthar's role, it's quite obvious that there were some lines crossed. He qualified himself as a power role that needed to be boosted to have the power, but also acquiesced to the notion that he was a vanilla whose power came about when he was boosted.

For example:
sthar8 wrote:
RR wrote: Also, sthar, you're saying you're basically vanilla that gets double vote if boosted, right?
sthar8 wrote:I'm a double voter. I have a second, secret vote that I PM to elmo in order to use.
I don't know how to be more explicit.
It's looks to me that sthar is using both "vanilla with boost ability" and "boost abled role" as one and the same. Reading his exchange with rabbit left me with the notion that he's a role who has a power if boosted. That's it, regardless of how you slice it.

That said, I think this is running dangerously close to Patrick's warning which nobody seems to be heeding: "Don't try to determine alignments based on wording of role PMs; it's useless in this game and I don't like it as a tactic."


And, uh, can you at least explain your suspicions so that everyone can actually see the reasoning behind this vote so that we can see just how fabulous (I'm assuming, since sthar's apparently obvscum) the logic is?
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Post Post #761 (ISO) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 2:27 pm

Post by Incognito »

sthar8, [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=1419215#1419215]in his 757[/url], wrote:I have played no forum mafia outside of MS. I have read
many
games for fun. I cannot recall any games where there were exactly two viable wagons on day 1 and both of them lead to scum. Do you have a logically valid point?
Right, so in your experience of both reading games and playing the five games you've played on here, you have never, not
once
, seen a situation where the two competing Day 1 wagons happened to be on scum. I've played in 18 games on here, moderated 4 games on here, played in a number of games off of here, moderated a number of games off of here, and read numerous games on here and elsewhere and guess how many instances I've seen where the two competing Day 1 wagons have been on scum. Exactly zero.

The point I'm getting at is judging by these raw numbers (you've just provided your numbers, and I've now provided my numbers), I think it's safe to say that the probability of two competing Day 1 wagons both being on scum is relatively low. I'm not saying that it's completely impossible for Huntress to be scum here, but I don't want to lynch her today because I think the probability of her being scum simply based off of these numbers is relatively low. Instead of analyzing the wagon that formed on Jahudo and seeing whose vote looks the most terrible, you've decided to just continue voting for Huntress thereby completely ignoring the wealth of information that could be buried in wagon analysis and thread/interaction analysis on
known scum
. Do you not think this is useful information?
sthar8, [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=1419215#1419215]in his 757[/url], wrote:You based your alleged NK on such speculation and killed a doctor. I based one of my suspicions yesterday on such speculation and he flipped townie. Does this not tell you something?
Nice strawman. No, I didn't base my NK completely on that speculation. You know better than that. It should be obvious judging by the length of time I spent trying to convince everyone that Guardian was scum that there was much more to my NK decision than that. I pointed out that particular speculation to let everyone know one of the many factors that went into my NK choice. Further, a lot more information has been drawn from the point that you were speculating on iLord's scumminess to this point now. We're not on Day 1 any longer where nothing is known; we've gathered some information from the dead now.
sthar8, [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=1419215#1419215]in his 757[/url], wrote:For the record, in my personal (irrelevant) opinion, proving that I am a double voter should increase the probability that I am town, as I believe that double voting is a very powerful scum ability that doesn't appear to fit well with what we know of the setup. In support of this, my second vote is anonymous, which means that the drawback of accountability is removed from any mislynch engineered using the vote. Without accountability, the ability is no longer restricted to only being useful in LYLO. As I have claimed my vote, the potential for abuse goes down significantly.
What if, by being boosted, you've actually gained a second double vote thereby allowing you to use this second double vote at a critical situation like LyLo? I think all power roles in this game begin with the ability that they were given from the start and have the potential to gain an additional ability upon being boosted. You've claimed to be a power role so why should we ignore the possibility that perhaps you
were
a one-shot double voter but now that you've been boosted, you've actually gained another double vote thereby making you a two-shot double voter?

Here's what I don't like about your explanation for why you should use your second vote today: apparently, you have the ability to
control
exactly when you want to use this second vote by shooting a PM to Elmo about when and where you want to use this ability. According to you, it's
not
a forced vote at all. You claim that you want to get rid of this ability now because you don't want the pressure of the swinginess it could bring in a LyLo situation. But according to your own explanation,
you don't even have to necessarily use it!
It's not a forced vote; it's a vote that YOU control by sending a PM to Elmo. What kind of pressure could you possibly have in LyLo given what you've just said about your own completely controllable vote?
sthar8, [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=1419215#1419215]in his 757[/url], wrote:Would it be viable to boost Incog in order to have him suicide before LYLO?
You've brought forward this ridiculous suspicion that I'm an SK and in the very same sentence, you want to actually produce a Boost-wagon on me so that I could suicide at some point during LyLo? For serious? If you genuinely believe that I'm an SK and you're really a pro-town player, why would you even want to waste an entire boost on me when you could direct that boost towards someone who you suspect is pro-town and simply lynch me?
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Post Post #762 (ISO) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 2:32 pm

Post by Incognito »

Green Crayons, read this please, which was in response to sthar8:

What if, by being boosted, you've actually gained a second double vote thereby allowing you to use this second double vote at a critical situation like LyLo? I think all power roles in this game begin with the ability that they were given from the start and have the potential to gain an additional ability upon being boosted. You've claimed to be a power role so why should we ignore the possibility that perhaps you were a one-shot double voter but now that you've been boosted, you've actually gained another double vote thereby making you a two-shot double voter?

Here's what I don't like about your explanation for why you should use your second vote today: apparently, you have the ability to control exactly when you want to use this second vote by shooting a PM to Elmo about when and where you want to use this ability. According to you, it's not a forced vote at all. You claim that you want to get rid of this ability now because you don't want the pressure of the swinginess it could bring in a LyLo situation. But according to your own explanation, you don't even have to necessarily use it! It's not a forced vote; it's a vote that YOU control by sending a PM to Elmo. What kind of pressure could you possibly have in LyLo given what you've just said about your own completely controllable vote?

This is just an extract of my post 761 above. It should answer your questions.
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Post Post #763 (ISO) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 3:24 pm

Post by Incognito »

Incognito wrote:You've brought forward this ridiculous suspicion that I'm an SK and in the very same sentence, you want to actually produce a Boost-wagon on me so that I could suicide at some point during LyLo?
EBWOP, btw, that should be
before
LyLo, not during. Sorry about that.
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Post Post #764 (ISO) » Mon Dec 29, 2008 4:29 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

sthar wrote:In addition, since our boosts are public information, electra-scum could just kill the boostee after the second time. This wastes a significant amount of time for no probable gain. I'm not saying I disbelieve electra, or think her any more scummy than I did yesterday, but I don't think this information is very confirmable at all.
Or even without electra being scum, they can just kill the boost-ee the third time around if they don't want the info proven. This is also a potential good method of making sure already boosted scum are boosted again, so if eldarad turns scum I'll be looking at sthar and electra.
sthar wrote:No, but the fact that my role PM was different suggests to me that my power is above and beyond the standard town mechanics for a game, in the same way that cop, doc, and bulletproof townie are above and beyond a normal vanilla PM.
Well, double vote does the town little good in the vast majority of situations. You could argue that even the average vanilla townie is likely to gain something more useful out of a boost, though given electa's info that's doubtful.
sthar wrote:For the record, in my personal (irrelevant) opinion, proving that I am a double voter should increase the probability that I am town, as I believe that double voting is a very powerful scum ability that doesn't appear to fit well with what we know of the setup. In support of this, my second vote is anonymous, which means that the drawback of accountability is removed from any mislynch engineered using the vote. Without accountability, the ability is no longer restricted to only being useful in LYLO. As I have claimed my vote, the potential for abuse goes down significantly.
I think the opposite, in fact -- the nature of this setup implies boosts should be influencial, and a double vote is significantly more powerful in the hands of scum - especially a
secret
one, I can't see any way in which it's more helpful than a public double vote in the hands of town. Therefore, your claimed power makes more sense for scum to have. You claimed your vote because you figured it'll somehow confirm you.
sthar wrote:To do what, exactly?
Boost people that don't get NK'd, obviously.

I still don't see this, and it keeps coming up. Can you elaborate?
Will try to when I finish rereading. Latest post sends up red lights in its own right.
sthar wrote:Wait, what? Are you suggesting that it'd be plausible for me to be double-voting, extra-killing scum, in a mini? Damn, you caught me. I'm also bulletproof, investigation-proof, and I've got three roleblocks per night.
I'm suggesting you could've had that double vote option to start with, and got an extra kill due to being boosted. Given Incog's claim, this is now pretty irrelevant though.
Would it be viable to boost Incog in order to have him suicide before LYLO?

Unless someone can come up with a plan to test huntress's alignment, she is a very good lynch.
Why would Incog the SK
ever
commit suicide? Why not just use his kills to the town's benefit and lynch him if we eventually decide he's scum?

Huntress also has a good pro town power, and like Incog said is unlikely to be scum with Jahudo (I never saw such a situation either). You seem intent on killing anyone caplable of improving our night game.


Incog brings up excellent points in 762, especially the second part - how exactly does such a vote cause you pressure?
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Post Post #765 (ISO) » Tue Dec 30, 2008 9:44 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I'm up to page 20 in my reread, these 10 pages were dominated by endless Incog/Guardian debates and thus not all that useful, but I did pick up stuff that increased my suspicion of all three suspects I picked up before (sthar, eldarad, Iceman). I need to reread the end of day 1, then I'll place a vote.
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Post Post #766 (ISO) » Tue Dec 30, 2008 4:28 pm

Post by Raging Rabbit »

Right. I'm calling the scumteam of Jahudo + Iceman + either sthar or eldarad, more likely sthar. I have lots of notes which I could try organizing into a proper case, but I'd like to hear everyoe's thoughts on that first.

Vote Iceman
.

Also, I'm a bit unsure with my boost on TDC. Could you link us to some finished scum games of yours, TDC? Your play strikes me as similar to your town performance in Cop Central, but it's possible you play exactly like that as scum as well.

Huntress is probably not mafia , given the way the end of yesterday played out. Happy with my boost on Incog, there's almost no way he can be scum with Jahudo given their play yesterday, unless both are brilliant actors.
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Post Post #767 (ISO) » Wed Dec 31, 2008 1:29 am

Post by eldarad »

Raging Rabbit, post 752 wrote:eldarad is looking much worse than I remembered. FZ is noncomital and not really scumhunting, and therefore scummy as well. Along with Jahudo they make a good possible scumteam.
What is FZ?
Raging Rabbit, post 755 wrote:As for eldarad's post - the first part seems like rationalizing a predecided conclusion that Huntress is scummy
The first part is directly addressing Huntress' stated opinion as to why I might have asked her who she would have boosted.
Do you think Huntress has a point here or do you think she is on the wrong track?

You are correct that I have thought further about Huntress' claim. And, having switched my vote at the end of Day 1 away from Huntress in order to hammer Jahudo I think it is reasonable for me to do so.

The point I make about the Boost ability possibly being a useless but confirmable role for the mafia is a good one and you shouldn't dismiss it so easily. That isn't to say that Huntress is mafia, but it is one piece of the jigsaw.

As I said, there is a lot to think about Huntress' claim, not least because of the consequences of assuming Huntress is scum. There are a number of factors suggest that Huntress probably isn't mafia - for example:
- the existence of two wagons on scum at the end of Day 1 seems unlikely
- Huntress-scum would have had to boost and kill iLord; possible but wastes the key advantage of the Boost ability - ie being confirmable

There are more factors at play, which is why I said I need to think on it further.
Raging Rabbit wrote:the suggestion regarding Electra is terrible and likely playing straight into scum's hands
You seem to be saying that I am suggesting this [
boosting someone 3 times
] as a course of action that we should take. I am not.
eldarad, post 731 wrote:The fact that the information is testable is enough for me to not want to test it, if that makes sense.
Raging Rabbit wrote:and the last part with the wink smiley just gives me the shivers.
Incog killed our doc. Do you not think that is worth mentioning, even if we do think he is a vig?
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Post Post #768 (ISO) » Wed Dec 31, 2008 2:01 am

Post by TDC »

While Electra's information is not really testable right now, a mass claim without any plain vanillas would hurt her credibility a lot. (I am assuming that if what she says is true, vanillas that do not know about their boost are not boostable.. though that's just speculation).

Huntress.. I still think a booster role would be a good scum role (with two boosts per day already being in the town's hand) and her boosting of the dead guy is convenient. (And even a Tracker confriming that she did that would not help a lot since she could just have submitted the kill.)
Her being the competing wagon to Jahudo is a plus though.

Incognito killing Guardian makes sense. Not sure whether an SK makes sense in this kind of game.

--

sthar8: What was the second power you thought you might have? (And was the first actually the double vote, or did you think it was something different?).

--

Incognito: I would not put it beyond the mod to create functionally equivalent roles (vanilla with known boosts and power roles that only work upon being boosted) and call them differently.
Why would sthar8 not make his own life easier and claim to be "vanilla that gets a double vote when boosted"?

As for your claim, I understand you right that you claim to have started out as one-shot vig, and every boost gives you another shot? (With, according to Electra, a maximum of three shots in total). As much as I'm aware that you thought Guardian was scum.. Why use your one (and unless you're boosted it could very well be your only) shot night 1? I doubt you feared to be nightkilled.

--

Electra: How exactly does your boost work, do you need to be boosted again to receive new information, or do you now receive information every night?

--
Raging Rabbit wrote:Right. I'm calling the scumteam of Jahudo + Iceman + either sthar or eldarad, more likely sthar. I have lots of notes which I could try organizing into a proper case, but I'd like to hear everyoe's thoughts on that first.
I don't really remember anything about Iceman or his predecessors. Did he enter the picture via Jahudo's posts or on his (or his predecessors') own?
Also, I'm a bit unsure with my boost on TDC. Could you link us to some finished scum games of yours, TDC? Your play strikes me as similar to your town performance in Cop Central, but it's possible you play exactly like that as scum as well.
You can look them up in my wiki.
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Post Post #769 (ISO) » Wed Dec 31, 2008 7:47 am

Post by Incognito »

eldarad, [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=1421345#1421345]in his 767[/url], wrote:As I said, there is a lot to think about Huntress' claim, not least because of the consequences of assuming Huntress is scum. There are a number of factors suggest that Huntress probably isn't mafia - for example:
- the existence of two wagons on scum at the end of Day 1 seems unlikely
- Huntress-scum would have had to boost and kill iLord; possible but wastes the key advantage of the Boost ability - ie being confirmable
I agree with the first example, but I strongly disagree with the second. In my experience, scum are more likely to choose a dead player as their "power role" target since the dead player will be unable to confirm or deny that the ability had any effect on them. There's another reason I disagree with the second example, but I'll refrain from going into that.

Also, I should note that I'd like to make a slight edit to my competing D1 wagons on scum theory that I proposed to sthar8; I have in fact seen
one
example where two competing D1 wagons did happen to be on scum . Either way, I think the comment still applies for the most part: the probability is still low. I'll look closer into Huntress interactions with Jahudo, but I think from my recollection of the game, icemanE and sthar8 are much more worthy targets for a D2 lynch.

TDC, in his 768, wrote:Incognito: I would not put it beyond the mod to create functionally equivalent roles (vanilla with known boosts and power roles that only work upon being boosted) and call them differently.
Why would sthar8 not make his own life easier and claim to be "vanilla that gets a double vote when boosted"?
Yes, I wouldn't past the mod either, and I generally don't like lynching people based on role claims anyway. I've seen too many situations where people ended up lynching other people soley based on the fact that a claimed role doesn't make sense and the lynch victim ended up being town. This is why I keep making it a point to say that I
did
have issues with his D1 play; if I didn't have issues with his D1 play, I probably wouldn't pursue this issue this strongly since I'd think his claim, though weird, might still come from town.

I still think he owes a major explanation for why he thinks his completely controllable ability might be a bitch for him to deal with in LyLo.

As for your second question, he was the first person to propose the mass claim strategy pretty much from the opening gates of the game. Claiming vanilla who happens to get a double vote when boosted would seem extremely sketchy at this juncture - why would a vanilla player ever suggest mass claim? As scum, he'd be pretty much forced to insist that his role is a power role; there'd be pretty much no way around it.
TDC, in his 768, wrote:As for your claim, I understand you right that you claim to have started out as one-shot vig, and every boost gives you another shot? (With, according to Electra, a maximum of three shots in total). As much as I'm aware that you thought Guardian was scum.. Why use your one (and unless you're boosted it could very well be your only) shot night 1? I doubt you feared to be nightkilled.
I'm only speculating about the "boosting giving me another shot" portion as I mentioned previously. It's not explicitly mentioned in my role PM as to what will happen if I'm boosted. The phrasing of the role PM leads me to believe that I may gain additional bullets upon being boosted because it makes it a point to mention that I
began
the game with a single bullet.

As for your second question, there were a few reasons for this:

1)
I strongly support the belief that a vig should try and shoot at every opportunity with the possible exception of Night 0 and of course, being careful around near-LyLo situations. I fully intended to claim today no matter what in the hopes of getting boosted and possibly gaining another bullet so that I could shoot again Night 2. I figured we could do some sort of a town-directed vig shooting for tonight so that we could potentially get two lynch opportunities out of today. I basically went into last night not under the mindset of a one-shot vig but rather under the mindset of a two-shot vig.

2)
Even if I'm wrong and I
don't
get an additional bullet, I figured using a boost on me that ends up having no effect and trying to boost someone else who seems town would be better than boosting two people who just
seem
town when one could potentially be scum. I really think there should be no question here about whether or not I'm town for various reasons. An SK suggestion is absurd given the circumstances and the timing of my claim.

3)
I actually
did
have a slight fear of being night-killed. I realize I was under a good deal of scrutiny yesterday, but I was the first vote on Jahudo and I pretty much kicked off the late D1 wagon on him while never wavering on my position on him. He, too, supported my lynch for a good portion of D1. I figured scum wouldn't target a boosted town player out of their fear of possible doc protection so they would target one of the more influential town players on the Jahudo-wagon. I thought that if iLord was town that would leave me or him since he was the one who created the case against him while I actually kicked off the wagon.
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Post Post #770 (ISO) » Wed Dec 31, 2008 8:03 am

Post by Green Crayons »

Boost: Incog
. Because of:
1) I strongly support the belief that a vig should try and shoot at every opportunity with the possible exception of Night 0 and of course, being careful around near-LyLo situations. I fully intended to claim today no matter what in the hopes of getting boosted and possibly gaining another bullet so that I could shoot again Night 2. I figured we could do some sort of a town-directed vig shooting for tonight so that we could potentially get two lynch opportunities out of today.
I remember walking away from my initial reread with feeling as if he was town, and coupled with the fact that there's no reason for me to disbelieve his claim or suspect any of his later play I don't see why he shouldn't be boosted. I strongly support town directed vig kills - maybe the player with the second highest vote tally at the end of the day or something of that sort.

I still think sthar is town.
My read of Eld is more town than not.
I remember Ice/predecessors as striking me as anti-town when he was last brought up (by Incog, I think), but I need to do a reread to ensure this feeling.
I still don't like Huntress but I'm starting to feel as if she's playing more antitown than scummish.
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Post Post #771 (ISO) » Wed Dec 31, 2008 10:54 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

eldarad wrote:What is FZ?
I meant FL, Fuzzylightning. Z's have a tendency to stand out to me.
The first part is directly addressing Huntress' stated opinion as to why I might have asked her who she would have boosted.
Do you think Huntress has a point here or do you think she is on the wrong track?
She is, you're right about that first part. But it still appears that you're using Huntress' power role claim as further reason to throw suspicion her way, which I dislike. Huntress being scum requires her to have claimed her role going head to head with her godfather's soft power claim, and also a scum booster makes little sense if she can just boost the same guy her team NK's. I think the claim definitely goes towards clearing her, and you trying to make it look the other way around is scummy.
eldarad wrote: The fact that the information is testable is enough for me to not want to test it, if that makes sense.
It doesn't. Trying to test the 3rd-boost-is-useless thing enables the scum to just NK the guy the third time around, creating a WIFOM trap we have no way of solving. It is therefore not practical to test it, which shouldn't make you think it is true - electra-scum could have easily figured our optimal stragegy is not to try and test it, and therefore felt safe making it up.
eldarad wrote:Incog killed our doc. Do you not think that is worth mentioning, even if we do think he is a vig?
The the way you phrased it makes me uncomfortable, though. You sound pleased.

TDC wrote:I don't really remember anything about Iceman or his predecessors. Did he enter the picture via Jahudo's posts or on his (or his predecessors') own?
Both. Not outlining my case yet, though, I want to hear him analyze the game first.
TDC wrote:You can look them up in my wiki.
I will when I'll have the time.


Incog should be an obivous boost today. I suggest we start discussing potential targets for him along with our lynch targets.
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Post Post #772 (ISO) » Fri Jan 02, 2009 1:54 am

Post by Green Crayons »

I'm going up to North Carolina for the weekend. My internet access will be spotty at best until Monday.

I doubt this will affect the game much, since we seem to be still recovering from the holiday season, but just a fyi.
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
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Post Post #773 (ISO) » Fri Jan 02, 2009 9:31 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I'm a bit worried by this fall in activity. Iceman especially should've really posted by now.
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Post Post #774 (ISO) » Fri Jan 02, 2009 10:23 am

Post by Huntress »

I haven't been able to find time over the last few days to really look at this game but I should have time to catch up now. I'm going to re-read Jahudo first and then review my case against Eldarad as he is my top suspect at the moment.

@ TDC: What are your reasons for choosing to boost Eldarad? A glance at your posts shows hardly any comment on him; just a brief comment when you boosted him right at the beginning of the game and a statement later that you don't see the case against him and still have him as likely town.
.

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