Mini 666 - This Could Be Mafia - MOD ABANDONED

[EGL]

negative vote: tajo

Let's see what this does.

[EGL]

Yeah I would bet that Muerrto killed Tony (e. coli from a tainted tomato) and mafia killed tajo.

[ShadowGirl]

Sorry for pasting the stats again. Playing IRC and didn't expect anyone else to post.

So, that means we still have some mafia out here... Bugger. I was hoping for some mafia to flip. A SK doesn't tell us much. :/

[EGL]

Do we still have negative votes? We could see if we can bring back Tajo.

[ShadowGirl]

Negative votes make someone unlynchable for the day, not bring someone back.

[EGL]

Oh. Where does it say that?

[ShadowGirl]

JimmyBot, Pet Rock, Cannot Be Lynched, Day 1

We tested it out on Jimmy on D1.

[EGL]

Okay thanks. I'm still trying to get caught up.

[competentpsycho]

So, whatever was preventing the reveals is gone...

Muerrto, Tainted Tomato (

Roleblocking

Serial Killer), died Day 2

maybe Muerrto was responsible - unless he got to target 2 people at night

So, does that mean the second kill was made by Muerrto?

Yeah I would bet that Muerrto killed Tony (e. coli from a tainted tomato) and mafia killed tajo.

Not necessarily - Tony was a weak doc - he could have protected scum also. But the ecoli makes it seem like SK kill was likely.

[Master Ruck]

Ok, I'm still here but I've been busy with other stuff and other games. I'm all caught up in them, though, so this is the last one and after that I don't have to re-read loads of stuff again for a long while. Will do big catch-up tomorrow.

[Tom Mason]

Are there even Positive/negative votes now?

I was under the impression that system was destroyed with the Energizer Bunny on Day 1.

[Battousai]

There are no positive/negative votes, that was D1 only.

Since there is a SK in this game, I would think in a 12 player setup there are 2 scum left unless town has more powerroles. So with 8 players left, statistically we have a 1 in 4 chance to lynch scum today and if we fail, a 1 in 3 chance tomorrow.

I also am going to assume Muerrto killed Muerrto killed Tajo, since Tajo's death is a likely SK method. That means scum killed Tony and not Tajo. I don't have the time tonight, but I'm going to go look at vote records tomorrow.

[EGL]

There are no positive/negative votes, that was D1 only.

Since there is a SK in this game, I would think in a 12 player setup there are 2 scum left unless town has more powerroles. So with 8 players left, statistically we have a 1 in 4 chance to lynch scum today and if we fail, a 1 in 3 chance tomorrow.

I also am going to assume Muerrto killed Muerrto killed Tajo, since Tajo's death is a likely SK method. That means scum killed Tony and not Tajo. I don't have the time tonight, but I'm going to go look at vote records tomorrow.

I think you mean you're assuming Muerrto killed Tony because

E Coli

fits more with a

tainted tomato

than dog bite or singing to death do.

[Battousai]

Well looking back, the only case that has been submitted towards someones guilt for awhile (where both the voter and the votee are still alive) is pickemgenius's vote on Grimmy. So, could you refresh us on your conviction of Grimmy's guilt?

[Master Ruck]

I think everyone here is forgetting the full details of a weak doctor. Yes, he could have been killed by scum/SK, but the weak doctor is automatically killed if they protect any mafia members. It's possible that, in his random choice to protect someone, he picked scum and died because of it. The lack of either other kill could be down to a bulletproof or proper doctor stopping the kill.

[EGL]

I think everyone here is forgetting the full details of a weak doctor. Yes, he could have been killed by scum/SK, but the weak doctor is automatically killed if they protect any mafia members. It's possible that, in his random choice to protect someone, he picked scum and died because of it. The lack of either other kill could be down to a bulletproof or proper doctor stopping the kill.

I'm not forgetting that. Actually, I think we're probably both right, since it did say "a big dose of death/e. coli." But I think the E. Coli is evidence he was killed by the tainted tomato (Muerrto) unless you think maybe he tried to protect the tainted tomato?

[Master Ruck]

I think everyone here is forgetting the full details of a weak doctor. Yes, he could have been killed by scum/SK, but the weak doctor is automatically killed if they protect any mafia members. It's possible that, in his random choice to protect someone, he picked scum and died because of it. The lack of either other kill could be down to a bulletproof or proper doctor stopping the kill.

I'm not forgetting that. Actually, I think we're probably both right, since it did say "a big dose of death/e. coli." But I think the E. Coli is evidence he was killed by the tainted tomato (Muerrto) unless you think maybe he tried to protect the tainted tomato?

That may be the case, but I still reckon it's more likely he aimed to protect scum and died because of it. I don't think he would die if he protected a SK as they're neutral, not scum. Also, while it may be a somewhat flimsy argument in a game of mafia, I'm sticking with the idea that he protected scum as occams razor dictates that option is far more likely than scum getting lucky and killing the doctor.

[competentpsycho]

I think everyone here is forgetting the full details of a weak doctor. Yes, he could have been killed by scum/SK, but the weak doctor is automatically killed if they protect any mafia members. It's possible that, in his random choice to protect someone, he picked scum and died because of it. The lack of either other kill could be down to a bulletproof or proper doctor stopping the kill.

No, I didn't forget. But it's just that the flavor makes it sound like the tainted tomato and his death were connected (the whole E. Coli thing).

[ShadowGirl]

I think everyone here is forgetting the full details of a weak doctor. Yes, he could have been killed by scum/SK, but the weak doctor is automatically killed if they protect any mafia members. It's possible that, in his random choice to protect someone, he picked scum and died because of it. The lack of either other kill could be down to a bulletproof or proper doctor stopping the kill.

No, I didn't forget. But it's just that the flavor makes it sound like the tainted tomato and his death were connected (the whole E. Coli thing).

My thoughts. And just off the top of my head as to who he would protect (probably Tajo) I don't think he would have hit scum with a protect. This is just speculation, of course.

[competentpsycho]

Also, while it may be a somewhat flimsy argument in a game of mafia, I'm sticking with the idea that he protected scum as occams razor dictates that option is far more likely than scum getting lucky and killing the doctor.

Missed something about your post: Funny that you mention that it is unlikely that scum killed him when it is also unlikely that a roleblocker blocked one of the kills. The more likely option is that Tony and tajo in some combination were killed by scum and SK, as Tony more likely protected a town player. There is also the chance that he protected scum AND was killed by scum or SK.

And by the true definition of Occam's Razor - the argument with the least assumptions is usually the best - since we can take out the assumption that there is a roleblocker and that he got lucky enough to block a kill and the assumption that Tony targeted the scum (which is less likely than him randomly picking town) the more likely option I mentioned above would be the most likely.

Now if you mean to say you would like to look into his past posts to see if he hinted at who he would be protecting then I don't blame you as this could be good information against that person since there is a chance that he DID target scum, but I am saying that is not the more likely situation.

[competentpsycho]

My thoughts. And just off the top of my head as to who he would protect (probably Tajo) I don't think he would have hit scum with a protect. This is just speculation, of course.

If I were Tony I wouldn't have protected tajo as I didn't think scum would kill him. I still don't know why they did. And if he did breadcrumb who he would be protecting he could have been trying to use his role as an investagative one, in which case he would have TRIED to target scum, avoiding tajo.

[Master Ruck]

Also, while it may be a somewhat flimsy argument in a game of mafia, I'm sticking with the idea that he protected scum as occams razor dictates that option is far more likely than scum getting lucky and killing the doctor.

Missed something about your post: Funny that you mention that it is unlikely that scum killed him when it is also unlikely that a roleblocker blocked one of the kills. The more likely option is that Tony and tajo in some combination were killed by scum and SK, as Tony more likely protected a town player. There is also the chance that he protected scum AND was killed by scum or SK.

And by the true definition of Occam's Razor - the argument with the least assumptions is usually the best - since we can take out the assumption that there is a roleblocker and that he got lucky enough to block a kill and the assumption that Tony targeted the scum (which is less likely than him randomly picking town) the more likely option I mentioned above would be the most likely.

Now if you mean to say you would like to look into his past posts to see if he hinted at who he would be protecting then I don't blame you as this could be good information against that person since there is a chance that he DID target scum, but I am saying that is not the more likely situation.

True form of Occam's razor has pretty much left me without a case now, so I reckon I'll do as you said by looking back on him and seeing if anything crops up. Also, my bad on not seeing the points made on weak doc. I really didn't bother doing a full re-read so I missed that stuff.

[Master Ruck]

Well I looked through all of Tony's posts and skimmed the rest, and post 570 is the only one I could really see that may give any indication as to who he may have protected. At this point, though, I'm going to admit that I could be wrong and he was scummed to death instead.

[ShadowGirl]

My thoughts. And just off the top of my head as to who he would protect (probably Tajo) I don't think he would have hit scum with a protect. This is just speculation, of course.

If I were Tony I wouldn't have protected tajo as I didn't think scum would kill him. I still don't know why they did. And if he did breadcrumb who he would be protecting he could have been trying to use his role as an investagative one, in which case he would have TRIED to target scum, avoiding tajo.

Why not? He did claim a PR, weak as we all may think it to be.

[Battousai]

Mod: Can we get a prod on pickemgenius?

Of course.