Illumina wrote:Kairyuu: Trust me, I could refute your points for another couple pages -- but when it comes down to it, we're butting heads on a single issue, and inundating the thread with our debate probably isn't going to be helpful. Our points have pretty much been laid out, you're not asking any new questions. I see where you're coming from, though: so I'll restate what I've already said. [insert my earlier argument here]
Okay, let's take a close look at this. First, Illumina is trying to shut down Kairyuu's questioning, which is technically evasion. This is, of course, a scumtell, but I'm trying some new techniques this game (causation analysis), so let's delve into the possibilities of WHY Illumina is trying to shut down debate.
Is there a potential pro-town rationale for avoiding debate in addition to the obvious scum one? Yes - a town player may feel that they have answered all questions posed to them to the best of their ability.
Does Illumina appear to be shutting down debate for that reason? Yes on the surface, not if you read between the lines. There are two reasons that Illumina is explicitly using to request avoiding debate with Kairyuu: "it won't be helpful" and "you have no new arguments" (implying that he(?) thinks that he has satisfactorily answered Kairyuu's questions). Let's take a closer look here:
"It won't be helpful" - This argument looks scummy to me, for two reasons. One, it's a wrong conclusion using generally accepted Mafia theory - general thought is that discussion helps the town by forcing scum to commit to positions. Second, the mindset I'm reading from this is "go away, I don't want to have to commit the time to rebut your arguments", which is NOT a pro-town mindset - rather, it's a mindset I would expect more in scum trying to fly under the radar.
"You have no new arguments" - This is pricking my scumdar on three levels. First, the very fact that Illumina chose to use "you have no new arguments" rather than "I feel I have answered your arguments" suggests a level of contempt for Kairyuu's case, which in the method I'm trying out is a scum mindset. Second, I don't see any frustration in Illumina's post when I would expect a town player who feels that they have answered all points against them to be very frustrated when those points keep getting brought up. That suggests that
Illumina's indication that she has answered all of Kairyuu's arguments is insincere
, which, if true, negates the possibility of Illumina's defense being justified by a town mindset. Third, note the placement of the "I see where you're coming from, though: so I'll restate what I've already said." at the end of the sentence. I'm reading that as a naked attempt to try to avoid a fight (and therefore scrutiny) - and THAT is NOT a town mindset [/quote]
Vi: You're just prejudiced because I won =P. Honestly, though, your points are reasonable, especially since my debate with Kairyuu has stalled.
Null tell - I could see town or scum admitting that another player has good points on them if they thought that was the best form of defense.
So here's my take on things so far.
I find it plausible that Veerus assumed the presence of safeclaims. It could have been a slip on his part, sure, but I had a safeclaim in my last game run by Nat, and it seems like Veerus had similar experience in past Mind Screw games. I can see why people caught on to it, because it seems like a good tell -- but I'm assuming the presence of safeclaims too, until proven otherwise. So it's noteworthy, but a fairly neutral tell in my book.
Again, doesn't look town to me. Note the sheer number of weasely words and phrases in this post - "It could have been a slip on his part, sure"; "I can see why people caught on to it"; "So it's noteworthy, but a fairly neutral tell in my book", etc. That doesn't read like genuine town indecision (especially since, in my experience, town leans toward one side of the issue when they aren't sure) - I'm seeing the mindset of scum trying to avoid taking a position (which they can be attacked for if said position is unpopular) and leaving themself an option to take whichever side of the argument becomes more popular later.
Note: This *could* also indicate a mindset of trying to keep a partner away from pressure subtly, so as not to get called on it if/when he comes up scum...
hp[leaves] is an interesting situation. It's not totally unreasonable that the note was randomly distributed, but it's interesting that no one (presumably town-aligned) has admitted to also not having it from the start. I also tend to doubt that he suddenly thought to check it, although I'm not discounting that as a possibility.
Again, note the sheer weaseliness and refusal to take sides on hp [leaves] - "not totally unreasonable", "interesting", "tend to doubt", "not discounting that as a possibility". There's two clear mindsets I'm seeing here": not wanting to be pinned down to a positions, and not wanting to pick a fight. Wait, no, there's a third: not wanting to scumhunt. I DO NOT see town taking this kind of position.
My initial impression of the debate between tajo and Vi seems like two townies fighting, but I'll be taking a closer look at that.
AGAIN, playing both sides. AGAIN, the probable mindsets are "avoid being pinned down" and "avoid fights".
I'm also unsatisfied with MSSK's reasoning. Specifically, his take on hp, the scuffle between Kairyuu and I, and the argument between populartajo and Vi. MSSK: pick two of those and tell me what you think, with at least four sentences for each.
This doesn't feel like genuine interest in MafiaSSK's actions - it could be, but I don't think so. Note the use of the word "unsatisfied" and the lack of specificity about WHICH PARTS of MSSK's reasoning don't satisfy him.
The mindset I'm seeing here is, instead, is a combination of asking questions to simulate scumhunting (implying a desire not to get caught not scumhunting) and trying to draw attention to MafiaSSK in the hopes that he will be lynched (not quite as sure about the latter). Neither of those comes from a pro-town mindset.
But then, given this post I don't think that Illumina is playing from a pro-town standpoint.
Unvote, Vote: Illumina
UnFoS, FoS: Illumina
Now let's try it again, this time with you telling me