Mini #704: Hunchback of Notre Dame, Game Over

[Urzassedatives]

Guys, this is really simple.

We lynch mizzy and then tomorrow if she's town we lynch orto.

come the fuck on.

[Mizzy]

The thing is, I didn't do anything to be blocked, so what's there to say? I already said I'm not scum. Counter claiming would be retarded. Ort can't prove he's telling the truth, either. This whole thing is here-say and hurt the town a great deal.

[Mizzy]

Guys, this is really simple.

We lynch mizzy and then tomorrow if she's town we lynch orto.

come the fuck on.

Do that and you lose a whole lot.

[Mizzy]

Sorry for the triple post, but actually, if you do what Urza suggests, we'll lose. If you lynch me, there's lylo, and if ort is telling the truth and you lynch him, which I think he is, town dies. Your choice, gang.

[Urzassedatives]

then perhaps it's time for a mass claim to determine if there's any other explanation for what happened?

[Mizzy]

then perhaps it's time for a mass claim to determine if there's any other explanation for what happened?

I don't like that because then the scum would know exactly who to kill. If we do mass claim, we should do it with role and not-role, but never with role names. My 2-cents.

[ortolan]

Also, I find it suspicious Ort has called Mizzy out. There are a few reasons for a lack of a NK. There is a possibility of a successful doc protection according to the rules. I would think you would have thought of this instead of A) Outing yourself as roleblocker, B) Potentionally taking us to LyLo with you as a lead canidate for lynch if Mizzy is actually town.

First of all, as has already been pointed out, I claimed at the start of day two. Secondly, I already realised this. I was hoping Mizzy would respond in a way that guaranteed I'd hit the right target and she was scum. She hasn't.

And, yes, there are *multiple* other suggestions for why the kill might not have gone through.

There's that I role-blocked Mizzy who was the mafia player meant to kill that night.

Scum might deliberately have submitted no-kill. I see this as unlikely but not impossible. This would work either way with me being town or scum- I might have deliberately not put in a kill to frame Mizzy, or scum might deliberately not have put in a kill so that I got a fake result. I honestly wouldn't think this to be particularly likely though, I would think scum would want to take advantage of every night-kill they can get. But it is something to consider.

Or; there is a doctor who protected whoever the intended kill target was.

We don't know which of these is the case.

Urza is scummy as all hell in light of this.

First he says:

Guys, this is really simple.

We lynch mizzy and then tomorrow if she's town we lynch orto.

come the fuck on.

If for example, either of my second or third explanations are true, then in fact both Mizzy and I are town and this would GUARANTEE a mafia win from two more mislynches.

Then he also rolefishes for the doctor:

then perhaps it's time for a mass claim to determine if there's any other explanation for what happened?

Vote: Urzassedatives

[Axelrod]

Guys, this is really simple.

We lynch mizzy and then tomorrow if she's town we lynch orto.

come the fuck on.

Come on nothing. I know that you know that there are other possibilities, so why are you acting like this is some kind of open/shut deal?

[ThAdmiral]

I'm for the mass claim idea.

Although I'm fairly confident mizzy is scum.

[destructor]

I'm trying to work out if massclaim is the best play right now. We'd out any remaining town powers but we'd also be forcing scum to claim

something

. I'm not sure what we stand to realistically gain through it, though. Thinking...

I'm willing to make a case on Mizzy since she makes sense as scum. For a start, why is she voting me? She only responded to some of what I asked her yesterday and seemed to completely ignore other parts. Her vote on me today is sloppy and I don't like that she did it despite what was pending from her case yesterday.

I think Mizzy is scum, but Urza's reaction is surprising for the reasons everyone else has said. Mizzy flipping town doesn't necessarily incriminate ort at all.


Batt, I didn't think your early play was great at all, but I unvoted you after you really upped your contribution. It wasn't your defence against my vote as opposed to your improved contributions that led me to unvote and I think that's completely reasonable. Your later play trumped my issues with your early play.

I was wrong about CC, but I still don't believe his FOSes were sound, or that the explanations he gave us were completely sincere. You didn't seem to have a problem with my case yesterday, so I don't think you should have one with it now.

[Axelrod]

If we were going to mass claim, we should start with a simple claim of "role/vanilla" without saying

what

role you are. That would be just to get the overall numbers out there. There's potential benefits to a claim like that, and also risks.

We could also lynch Mizzy without any claims. If she came up town, then tomorrow we'd pretty much have to have all the claims immediately upfront. And

someone

would have some 'splaining to do.

I don't think everyone has even checked in yet, however, so we shouldn't go any farther with any kind of plan until that happens.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

I don't like the mass claim idea, whether it's full claiming or role/vanilla claiming.. 75% of the original players are still alive. It should be done in a later day.

[Mizzy]

destructor, I gave a case on you that is, in my opinion, far more solid than the OMGUS "case" you have on me. I responded to what I saw, and if I missed something, you are more than welcome to point it out and I will respond to it. I have already given reason upon reason for voting you. You can "not like it" all you want, but your quick vote was far, far scummier than anything I have done. Don't screw the game over for the rest of the town by focusing on someone who you simply "don't like."

Since there's a chance I won't be around tomorrow, I'm going to claim now. I'm claiming not only because I might be away tomorrow but also because we probably have a doc and I would much rather die myself than have a doc killed.

I'm a

pro-town power role

but I am NOT going to say what role I am, so don't bother asking. I did not attempt to use my power last night.

[Battousai]

Unvote

I'm still suspicious of you destructor, but in light of Urza play... Also, yesterday I was sure CC was scum, I was willing to take any vote on him.

Urza, I was giving you a pass for awhile, which I shouldn't have, because when you came in so many people piled on. But after your play today, I'm having doubts.

Vote: Urza

[Urzassedatives]

Orto, are you effing kidding me? You get a no kill on the night that you RB someone and you don't want to lynch them? You want to lynch someone completely different?

Are you kidding me?

There are possibilities that make it POSSIBLE that Mizzy is town, but they are extremely unlikely. I just can't fathom how a RB would have a block on a night there was no kill and not go after that person? And not even wagon that person. What the hell? Do you have any clue how to play mafia? Are you a fucking idiot?

And seriously, mizzy? the ol' BUT SCUM WOULD KNOW WHO TO KILL fear mongering? It's acknowledged that town and scum get advantages from mass claims, you're an experienced player who knows this. However, I just brought up a very important benefit of mass claiming in this instance- we would know for sure if you're scum. This as a benefit highly outweighs outing power roles, as we NEED to lynch right today or tomorrow or we lose the game. Now, I understand that you have a very good reason for not wanting us to do this- You're scum- but I know the rest of the town won't see it that way.

Guys, if we mass claim we will figure out if mizzy is scum or if there is another plausible explanation for last night, and thats ridiculously important because we need to lynch right today or tomorrow.

[Urzassedatives]

GUYS STOP FLINGING YOUR VOTES AROUND AND THINK.

We have a RBed player on a night where there was no kill, and generally that should dictate that she or Orto are scum.

The only reason this could be not true is if there are confounding factors caused by other power roles. I think from my position it's pretty clear that I didn't mess with the kill in any way last night.

Let us mass claim and lynch intelligently, not do this "LOL URZA THINKS MIZZY IS SCUM VOTE: URZA"

Which pretty much seems to me to be what the case is. Erm... Excuse me, it was "scummy as hell"

hard to defend against, that. But I think I've very clearly laid out my position here, and I would be hard pressed to find a reason it's scummy.

So, challenge to the people who are voting me: what about my position is scummy. That is, what is the significant anti town motivation for what I have just laid out. It must be a doozy to be "Scummy as hell"

[Battousai]

1) Your initial post on this page said "lets believe ort and lynch Mizzy. If Mizzy is town then lets lynch Ort." It is damn well possible that there are other roles out there and other circumstances that would make both of these players innocent. To me, as scum, you are setting up back to back mislynches in order to win.

2) If there is another powerrole out there that blocked/deferred the kill last night, it would be best for scum to figure out who in order to kill them (aka a doc would think that who they protected is town and thus: confirmed innocent. Actually a role/no role claim would be worse if this was the scenerio.

3) Only after Mizzy called you out on your idea did you come up with the mass claim. That suggests you were happy with lynching Mizzy today and Ort tomorrow without mass claiming...

[Urzassedatives]

Major ++ town points to batt. That was well reasoned. Allow me to respond.

1) I was initially willing to believe ort and not mizzy because I have generally been finding ort townish all game. Please look at my posts from day 1. I am aware of the

possibility[/b] of other roles being able to confound the system. But I do not think it likely. It simply just does not happen often in mini games that there are two separate explanations for kill not happening. So why I acknowledged the possibility that there could be another explanation, I am a very percentage oriented player and I decided that mizzy was our percentage lynch for today.

2) It's true, however, considering mizzy already claimed "pro town power role" (lol, scum claim if I've ever seen one) the damage is miniscule, and I've already explained that since we NEED to lynch right today or tomorrow, the benefits of knowing for sure that mizzy is scum or if there's another possibility is drastically important to us, and outweighs outing power roles, because at this point we don't need pro town power roles, we need dead scum. it's as simple as that.

3) This is because it didn't occur to me that people would actually give credence to the remote possibility that they were BOTH telling the truth It's seriously very very very unlikely, but if we need a mass claim to convince the town that one of them is scum, then so be it. We need dead scumz, pretty much right now.


To Batt: Actually, I'm starting to get a bad taste in my mouth about how that whole thing went down. It was like, both players should theoretically have a very strong desire to lynch each other, but neither of them seem to. Orto comes out and says his result, and then immediately tries to get people to not vote mizzy, and then votes for someone else. Mizzy never attacks orto, which I guess is explainable if she is town, but ortos behavior makes no sense to me.

[Urzassedatives]

Mach: We don't HAVE a later day? we have two days at most. We need to figure this out NOW.

[Battousai]

We have exactly 2 days in worst case scenerio. We will have 3 days if neither the town or scum use their vig kill (if there is one). So ya, I'd rather not bank on the third day.

This game has got to be one of the harder games I've played on the site. The amount of scum mistakes is equal to the amount of town mistakes so it is getting hard to figure out who is who.

Urza: What if someone comes out and claims doc (as roleblocker would mean that either Mizzy or whoever the roleblocker blocked is scum)? That would mean it is possible that Mizzy and Ort are both town and the scum now knows who are all the town powerroles while the town gains nothing. Mass claiming, even role/no role, is completely out, IMO.

The only other explanation for the lack of the NK that is reasonable is a successful doc protect. In case the doc gets killed tonight, maybe we should all list the towniest person (other than self) so we have a confirmed innocent the next day?

[Mizzy]

Urza, you sound more and more like excited scum and less and less like scared town to me.

Remember that in this game, we can have 1, 2 or 3 of any power role listed on the front page, in ANY combination. We could have 1, 2 or 3 docs, 1, 2 or 3 roleblockers, or whatever. Do the math.

[Korejora]

Do the math! Yes! I love doing the math.

If you two are both town and aren't lying, then for there to be a confounding town role, we must assume:
- The town has three power roles (1/3)
- The role is one of the currently living town players, ignoring ortolan and Mizzy (4/7) which changes based on the traitor (5/7)
- The role is a doctor, or the role is a role-blocker and the player chose* to act (1/4 + 1/8)
- The player chose* the correct target (1/8)

*Player choices are assumed to be random.

So there's a 1/96 chance, which increases to a 1/82 chance if we've killed the traitor

Although player choices aren't actually random, I don't see any game dynamics that would significantly tip the odds, and I'd prefer to chuck out that possibility as too slim unless someone shows me one. Or tells me that I'm awful at math.

...

The other problem, of course, is something like the following: if the mafia saw ortolan's claim and was like,

lol gaiz, he said hes gonn block sum1 tonite, lets no-kill so teh town thinkz it was coz of his RB!!!!1!!

then Urzassedatives's plan is exactly what they

want

us to do. I suppose that could imply that Urza is trying to lead us into the trap, but as I understand it, he made the suggestion based on a generally successful policy regarding night information; it's not that unreasonable and is likely to have been brought up regardless. We should probably consider it based on how likely we think Mizzy or ortolan is to be in the mafia, and whether we think the mafia would bet their nightkill on this gambit.

MODDDD Mister PJ sir, can mafia choose not to kill in this game?

Also, I think it's kind of silly that Mizzy came up with a roundabout way of role-claiming, and then did it in her next post without anyone really agreeing to it. The idea of claiming role vs nonrole without claiming the role itself seems weird to me, too. If the player is scum, (s)he gets to have the cake and eat it too: the town doesn't want to lynch because it's a claimed power role, but the night actions can be made up after the fact because the town has no idea what they should be. If the player is town, the town will have no idea what the actions were in the first two nights if the player dies, which is especially a concern in Mizzy's case, where she is the only claimed power role.

[Mizzy]

Also, I think it's kind of silly that Mizzy came up with a roundabout way of role-claiming, and then did it in her next post without anyone really agreeing to it. The idea of claiming role vs nonrole without claiming the role itself seems weird to me, too. If the player is scum, (s)he gets to have the cake and eat it too: the town doesn't want to lynch because it's a claimed power role, but the night actions can be made up after the fact because the town has no idea what they should be. If the player is town, the town will have no idea what the actions were in the first two nights if the player dies, which is especially a concern in Mizzy's case, where she is the only claimed power role.

I want the scum to have to think on this NK coming up. Do they kill power role A or power role B? If they kill A, then it makes B look like scum, but B could be more dangerous left alive. Ahh, decisions for them, no?

I am also not the only claimed power role, and I took no actions on any night as of yet. Better?

[petroleumjelly]

Day Three: Vote Count #2

2 Mizzy (Urzassedatives, destructor)
2 Urzassedatives (ortolan, Battousai)
1 Destructor (Mizzy)

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lynch, and

3

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is January 31, 9:59 pm CDT.

Not Voting – 4 – Axelrod, Korejora, Machiavellian-Mafia, ThAdmiral

Mod Note: The mafia can choose to no-kill if they so desire, just as a 1-Shot and 2-Shot roles do not have to use their abilities the first nights possible.

[Korejora]

ortolan has no power, so he doesn't make much of a night target. If there were any other claims, I missed them.