Mini #704: Hunchback of Notre Dame, Game Over

[Mizzy]

ortolan has no power, so he doesn't make much of a night target. If there were any other claims, I missed them.

Did he use both? I missed that part if he said he used both blocks.

[ThAdmiral]

The other problem, of course, is something like the following: if the mafia saw ortolan's claim and was like,

lol gaiz, he said hes gonn block sum1 tonite, lets no-kill so teh town thinkz it was coz of his RB!!!!1!!

then Urzassedatives's plan is exactly what they

want

us to do. I suppose that could imply that Urza is trying to lead us into the trap, but as I understand it, he made the suggestion based on a generally successful policy regarding night information; it's not that unreasonable and is likely to have been brought up regardless. We should probably consider it based on how likely we think Mizzy or ortolan is to be in the mafia, and whether we think the mafia would bet their nightkill on this gambit.

I highly doubt they would. With three scum still around they would have left themselves open to a high chance of one of them being blocked anyway and then winding up on the chopping block. In fact it works out to actually be less likely for them to be "caught" if they did kill (1/9 - since only one of them would have sent the kill in) than if they didn't! (3/9).

Also, I think it's kind of silly that Mizzy came up with a roundabout way of role-claiming, and then did it in her next post without anyone really agreeing to it. The idea of claiming role vs nonrole without claiming the role itself seems weird to me, too. If the player is scum, (s)he gets to have the cake and eat it too: the town doesn't want to lynch because it's a claimed power role, but the night actions can be made up after the fact because the town has no idea what they should be. If the player is town, the town will have no idea what the actions were in the first two nights if the player dies, which is especially a concern in Mizzy's case, where she is the only claimed power role.

True. Claiming role or non-role really only helps the mafia.

which leads me to...

considering mizzy already claimed "pro town power role" (lol, scum claim if I've ever seen one)

So true.

Like I said I'm quite sure mizzy is scum.

[Mizzy]

What, and letting myself get lynched is pro-town? Damn, you guys are dumb. Scum are completely going to win this one. We might as well throw in the towel at this point.

[ortolan]

Orto, are you effing kidding me? You get a no kill on the night that you RB someone and you don't want to lynch them? You want to lynch someone completely different?

Are you kidding me?

There are possibilities that make it POSSIBLE that Mizzy is town, but they are extremely unlikely. I just can't fathom how a RB would have a block on a night there was no kill and not go after that person? And not even wagon that person. What the hell? Do you have any clue how to play mafia? Are you a fucking idiot?

lol. I was more than happy to wagon Mizzy. Then you made Post 650, where you suggest we should lynch Mizzy and if she flips town, me also. If, as you say, you've found me pro-town all game, I don't know why you'd even be speculating that I was lying. It also happened to be perfectly consistent with the idea that scum tried to set me up. If this is the case you're guaranteeing your win by setting up Mizzy to be lynched, and then me. This is aside from the possibility of a doctor in the setup.

I highly doubt they would. With three scum still around they would have left themselves open to a high chance of one of them being blocked anyway and then winding up on the chopping block. In fact it works out to actually be less likely for them to be "caught" if they did kill (1/9 - since only one of them would have sent the kill in) than if they didn't! (3/9).

I don't think so, it probably wasn't that hard for scum to guess whom I would target. I almost chose another target to Mizzy because of similar WIFOM-related reasons.

[destructor]

im conflicted right tnow.

Im thinking if we're going to masscaim it should be when we're actually at lylo.

first benefit of doing it role/vanilla is we get how many powers claim and can know if scum are fake-claiing. If that's al we want to know, then there is no benefit in full claiming besides considering setup balance stuff.

I dont like the idea of finding another explanation for the lack of kill. If both ort and Mizzy were telling the truth, then anothe town power stopped the kill last night and I don't see why we should be forcing them to out themselves, especialy if they're a doc. so not sure why thats being suggested

Still don't like urza's mizzy->ort comment since the setup clearly allows for mtiple roles that can stop kills

[Battousai]

Did he use both? I missed that part if he said he used both blocks.

I went back and looked. He claimed he RB'd roflcopter N1.

Destructor: I don't think it is a viable option to massclaim at LyLo. What if it comes down to Player A or Player B is scum? We get a 50/50 chance of getting it right. Whereas if we do it a day before we will have a 100% chance of getting it right, eventually.

I'm against massclaim and I think instead of voting Ort or Mizzy because of last night, find something else to vote them or someone else, because we do not have enough evidence to lynch either based on that alone.

Also, is no one going to list the most pro-town player? This is so the potential doc can claim who they protected last night.

[Mizzy]

Also, is no one going to list the most pro-town player? This is so the potential doc can claim who they protected last night.

That would be you, Batt. I would bet money that you're the most pro-town in a lot of people's eyes.

[Urzassedatives]

@ 677: Defeatism is another strong scum tell in my book. A town player doesn't make arguments like "OMG WEVE LOST NOW IF YOU LYNCH ME." because they typically have a good argument to make. Scum very often fall back on appeals to emotion.

@Orto: I only said that to get the town confortable with lynching mizzy. The odds that you are both telling the truth (as run by kore, but I had vaguely already done something like that in my mind) are so slim that mizzy should almost 100% be lynched today, as she is almost certainly scum. I would put the odds on mizzy being the liar about 85% and you being the liar about 15%.

@Destructor: Remember that my comment only makes me scummy if both mizzy and orto are town, therefore in your opinion my alignment is dependent on mizzys alignment. If Mizzy comes up scum, you can't find me scummy for the comment because there's no way I was trying to set up a 1-2 lynch if the first player lynched is scum. Therefore we should lynch mizzy before we lynch me because there is a good chance she is scum and if she isn't there's a good chance orto or i am scum. Therefore mizzy is the best lynch from likely to be scum perspective and from information perspective.

@batt: I am confused. You think mass claim at lylo is bad, and mass claim today helps us out, but you are against mass claim in general. Could you explain that last post more fully.

@Everyone: I think we at the very least need to push for a mizzy claim. Thoughts on this?

[Mizzy]

@Everyone: I think we at the very least need to push for a mizzy claim. Thoughts on this?

I already claimed as much as I am going to claim. Stop role-fishing. Stop being obvscum, while you are at it.

[Thestatusquo]

lol? Straight up pressuring someone to claim has all of a sudden become role fishing?

I am not fishing.

I want you to claim.

Role fishing is trying to coax a claim out of someone without asking for one, or make someone say something which might make the other player say something that might make you able to guess their role.

Something like

"I wonder if the cop targeted X last night"

is role fishing.

"I think you are scum and I want you to claim because of that"

Isn't.

Add strawmanning in order to make someone attacking you look bad to the list of scumtells you keep dropping.

[Mizzy]

I'm still not claiming anymore than I already have. And post on the right account, damnnit.

[Urzassedatives]

So you admit you were strawmanning to make me look bad?

Also, why does it matter which account I post under? Seems like you're choosing some very unimportant things to talk about because you know I'm destroying you on the important issues.

[Mizzy]

So you admit you were strawmanning to make me look bad?

Also, why does it matter which account I post under? Seems like you're choosing some very unimportant things to talk about because you know I'm destroying you on the important issues.

You already made yourself look worse than Tammy Faye Baker. And no, I feel that you were rolefishing (trying to get a specific role from me when I have already refused.) You can disagree, but that's how I see it.

It matters because it makes it hard to check for posts on search and whatnot. My annoyance at your double-account posting has nothing to do with the game itself.

[Urzassedatives]

What you "think" doesn't matter.

Role fishing has a very specific meaning. Asking for a claim, and attempting to pressure to a claim has another, completely separate meaning.

For you to conflate the two, when under pressure, means something to me, because you are an experienced player who I am damn sure knows the difference. That means your conflation has a specific purpose. You are attempting to make me look bad by deliberately confusing two things that are very separate.

But I think that us commenting back and forth on this has reached its maximum level of use, so I am going to step out of the thread for a bit and let other players comment on what just happened.

[petroleumjelly]

Day Three: Vote Count #3

2 Mizzy (Urzassedatives, destructor)
2 Urzassedatives (ortolan, Battousai)
1 Destructor (Mizzy)

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lynch, and

3

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is January 31, 9:59 pm CDT.

Not Voting – 4 – Axelrod, Korejora, Machiavellian-Mafia, ThAdmiral

[ThAdmiral]

I think ortolan or urza are the most town.

If I had to choose one to protect it would be urza though.

vote: mizzy

[Axelrod]

Well, Mizzy's attitude is coming across as all wrong to me. Too hostile, too defeatist, and, incidentally, not enough questioning of

what happened to the scum kill

. I mean, if it wasn't stopped because you got RBed, then what? That would mean someone in the

town

is sitting on information that might possibly save you, and you don't seem to care.

I'll try a mini review in a bit, but it's looking more and more like that's where my vote will go.

[Korejora]

I approve of a Mizzy lynch. If she flips town, I'll forgive ortolan, because that's what goats are for.

[Battousai]

Urza: I'm against a mass claim at LyLo as scum can use it to put a townie on the chopping block along with scum. That would change the chance of a mislynch to 50%, whereas the day before would change the chance to correctly lynch scum to 100% the second day if there was a mislynch previously. I'm against a half claim, as the only possible reason for Mizzy and Orto to be town is a successful doc protect (assuming another roleblocker would have already came out and said who they blocked last night). A half claim would tell the scum who the doc is. Now a full claim today would result in forcing Mizzy to roleclaim (as her reason for not telling us her power is to protect a third powerrole), and outing a doc or a vig. Or it would result in Mizzy still not roleclaiming and no one claims a powerrole. The first one is we gain more info, but it would result in finding scum less likely than the second. If there is a doc, he/she would have to have enough trust in the town (with a confirmed innocent if Mizzy is found town) not to mislynch the next day.

Out of everybody, I think Axelrod is the most protown. He has made the least amount of posts that have striken me as more likely coming from scum. Now would others please give us the most protown player (1), so the potential doc can hide who he/she protected last night. So far its:

Axelrod- N/A
Battousai- Axelrod
Destructor- N/A
Korejora- N/A
MM- N/A
Mizzy- Battousai
Ort- N/A
ThAd- Urza
Urza- N/A

I think it might actually be best if the town lynch Mizzy today. I'm pretty sure the scum aren't going to kill her (she's one of them, alive adds WIFOM). If she turns up scum- good. If she turns up town- doc claims and we will have 2 confirmed (if the doc is believed) making the 2 scum we have to lynch to hide among 3 townies.

[Urzassedatives]

I am not going to give a most pro town player as I think thats far too helpful to the scum.

Here's a list of people I'm generally comfortable with the assumption that Mizzy is scum:

Orto
thadmiral
Kore

Given that mizzy is town:
Thadmiral
batt
kore

[Mizzy]

Like I said, I'd rather be lynched than have the doc or whoever killed, so go ahead. But unless the doc is successful again, we will be in lylo tomorrow. I HIGHLY suggest you guys think (you know, with your brains?) before you act tomorrow.

[Battousai]

How does it help the scum more than town? By giving the one person you find more town, it be like giving the scum some info on who is most townie (so far its all been different so its not much info) and in exchange taking the chance to get a CONFIRMED player at LyLo (if Mizzy is town).

Axelrod- N/A
Battousai- Axelrod
Destructor- N/A
Korejora- N/A
MM- N/A
Mizzy- Battousai
Ort- N/A
ThAd- Urza
Urza- Korejora

[Nuwen]

please don't put words in my mouth.

I did not say that I find kore the most town, I said that she is on both lists of players I am comfortable with. You'll notice the admiral is on both lists as well.

It helps the scum because it essentially helps them hand pick their end game, and assures us that while one player who is collectively considered "the most townie" does get through to end game (IF there is a doctor, which we cant be sure of) the scum can make sure that they are paired with the townie player who was collectively considered the least likely to be town. it also doesn't give us that much benefit. I trust the doctors judgement and don't feel the need to supplement it with my own.

[Thestatusquo]

and that was me. I'm at college with another girl who plays on this site (nuwen) and am currently in her room on her computer. Much lulz involved here. Carry on.

[WANDERINGSOPHIST]

And that was me posting on my main account instead of my alt account.

Many lulz here.


hi Mizzy.