Mini #704: Hunchback of Notre Dame, Game Over

[Urzassedatives]

And that was me posting with the wrong alt account.

hi mizzy.

[Mizzy]

I just stabbed a teddy bear.

Hi, urza.

[Korejora]

You made me spit apple juice on my dog.

[ortolan]

Battousai you seem a reasonable choice for towniest (think it's redundant in my case but hey)

MM and Korejora do you have anything to say? MM expressed a desire against a mass-claim but not much else, Korejora did some maths on roles/actions but I'm not sure of her position on a Mizzy or alternative lynch at this stage. At least please comply with Batt's softclaim request of your towniest (to both of you).

[ThAdmiral]

Just letting you know I will be away for the next 2 days.

[Korejora]

Battousai's idea has a lot of leaps and assumptions that are not dependable. I will need a more solid reason that it will help the town more than the mafia to state my #1 town outright.

To be sure, I would prefer to lynch Mizzy. I am still withholding my vote because most of the town doesn't seem to be done discussing the situation.

[Mizzy]

It would probably be a really good idea to discuss what will get done tomorrow. I have accepted that I'm the lynch, and I'm okay with that. Mostly. However, a lot of you are banking on me flipping scum, which I won't, and there should be a back-up plan. (You can blah blah argue about that all you want, but that's what's going to happen. I'm not saying that to prevent my lynch, I'm saying it because it's damned true.) Who will you look at? What actions will take place?

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

At this point, I think the Mizzy is the obvious play for today.

And my #1 town player is Batt.

[Korejora]

Who do you want us to look at, Mizzy? If you flip town, we will know that we can trust what you said and use against the mafia.

Unless you're the traitor, I guess. Still, FWIW.

[Mizzy]

Who do you want us to look at, Mizzy? If you flip town, we will know that we can trust what you said and use against the mafia.

Unless you're the traitor, I guess. Still, FWIW.

I would highly suggest looking at the following people:
Urzassedatives
ThAdmiral
Machiavellian-Mafia

In that order.

[Thestatusquo]

How about reasons? Other than "Those are the three people that most want me lynched right now."

[Mizzy]

How about reasons? Other than "Those are the three people that most want me lynched right now."

If you're going to have more than one account and use them, the least you could do is be less lazy and post in the right one.

Urza should be a no-brainer. Everything he suggested and posted about the ort claim and what should be done to me has screamed scum. I would feel that way no matter who the target was.

TheAd and MM are more subtle. I find that neither one has done or said very much of late, and I feel very little commitment in their posts. At this stage of the game, flying under the radar is anti-town. In fact, the read I have on both of them is so completely the same, I have trouble not seeing them as scumbuddies.

[Battousai]

How about reasons? Other than "Those are the three people that most want me lynched right now."

Why are you lessening Mizzy's list of scum/look at tomorrow? Of course you and ThAd have posted your conviction in Mizzy being scum, but MM has only said that Mizzy should be the play today (along with a few others).

Axelrod- N/A
Battousai- Axelrod
Destructor- N/A
Korejora- refuses
MM- Battousai
Mizzy- Battousai
Ort- Battousai
ThAd- Urza
Urza- refuses

Oh no, looks like I'm going to be NK'd tonight /sarcasm

[Urzassedatives]

Batt, are you saying asking Mizzy to give reasons behind her suspicions is anti town? If so, why? If not, why are you attacking me for it? It seems to me that a cursory glance at who mizzy attacked today and who she now thinks is most likely to be scum are very strongly correlated to who has been attacking her. Go back and look if you think I'm wrong.

Her suspicions are only important if a) she flips town, and b) she provides valid reasoning for them. If she doesn't do a then there's too much wifom to interpret them, and if she doesn't do b) then we will not be able to reason through her suspicions and will not be able to determine if she's completely mistaken in them...

It seems important than to me to force her to give reasoned answers about why she suspects people.

Do you disagree?

[Battousai]

I sure do agree. But to get the outcome desired, a simple "Could you please elaborate?" would suffice. But by saying her reason was, "Those are the three people that most want me lynched right now" throws at her list unnecessary suspicion and doubt. Since her suspicions are only useful if she's town, throwing suspicion on them isn't the way to go since we are assuming she flips town (to plan for tomorrow if its worstcase and LyLo.

So in short, I agree with the goal, not the course.

[Urzassedatives]

That's fair enough, I suppose.

[Korejora]

Could you be more specific regarding Urza? "Screaming scum" is a little too vague for me to work with. Even if you think it's obvious, I feel like it would help to have it on record so your unspoken opinion doesn't get second-guessed and therefore possibly manipulated by the mafia. Also, does anyone other than Battousai have your blessing?

Batt, no offense, but I'm gonna lol pretty hard if you die tonight, after saying that.

[ortolan]

Could you be more specific regarding Urza? "Screaming scum" is a little too vague for me to work with. Even if you think it's obvious, I feel like it would help to have it on record so your unspoken opinion doesn't get second-guessed and therefore possibly manipulated by the mafia. Also, does anyone other than Battousai have your blessing?

I'd like to hear the answer to this too, could be very useful.

[Mizzy]

Could you be more specific regarding Urza? "Screaming scum" is a little too vague for me to work with. Even if you think it's obvious, I feel like it would help to have it on record so your unspoken opinion doesn't get second-guessed and therefore possibly manipulated by the mafia. Also, does anyone other than Battousai have your blessing?

Batt, no offense, but I'm gonna lol pretty hard if you die tonight, after saying that.

These are just from today:

Guys, this is really simple.

We lynch mizzy and then tomorrow if she's town we lynch orto.

come the fuck on.

Said without the thought of consequences. It's not hard to guess, looking at the numbers and lynch history, that we are pretty close to lylo. Suggesting something like this is anti-town at best. He's not a noob, so he ought to know better than suggesting that we do something like that at this stage in the game. Only scum would benefit from this.

then perhaps it's time for a mass claim to determine if there's any other explanation for what happened?

Only scum would benefit from a mass claim. (ThAdmiral was up for the mass claim, too, scumpoints for him.)

Guys, if we mass claim we will figure out if mizzy is scum or if there is another plausible explanation for last night, and thats ridiculously important because we need to lynch right today or tomorrow.

Now he's trying fear tactics to get the town to do what he wants, and this is after he suggested that we lynch poorly twice in a row and got smacked for it.

GUYS STOP FLINGING YOUR VOTES AROUND AND THINK.

We have a RBed player on a night where there was no kill, and generally that should dictate that she or Orto are scum.

The only reason this could be not true is if there are confounding factors caused by other power roles.

I think from my position it's pretty clear that I didn't mess with the kill in any way last night.

Let us mass claim and lynch intelligently, not do this "LOL URZA THINKS MIZZY IS SCUM VOTE: URZA"

Which pretty much seems to me to be what the case is. Erm... Excuse me, it was "scummy as hell"

hard to defend against, that. But I think I've very clearly laid out my position here, and I would be hard pressed to find a reason it's scummy.

So, challenge to the people who are voting me: what about my position is scummy. That is, what is the significant anti town motivation for what I have just laid out. It must be a doozy to be "Scummy as hell"

Then he comes out with this piece of work. He knows he did something scummy and going on the aggressive about it. He even adds in the (bolded) softclaim which even if he's scum wouldn't be a lie.

2) It's true, however, considering mizzy already claimed "pro town power role" (lol, scum claim if I've ever seen one) the damage is miniscule, and I've already explained that since we NEED to lynch right today or tomorrow, the benefits of knowing for sure that mizzy is scum or if there's another possibility is drastically important to us, and outweighs outing power roles, because at this point we don't need pro town power roles, we need dead scum. it's as simple as that.

Let me translate:

"I'm going to dismiss her role claim as obvscum so that when we lynch her and she was telling the truth, I can just point back to this and say, "Hey, I thought her claim was false for sure!" I mean, hell, the town's fucked up this much so far, maybe they'll just be blind as bats and let us do this if I make it sound like they'd be retarded to do otherwise."

Only a dipshit would not realize that protective power roles can lengthen the game by days. By carelessly tossing aside power roles at this stage, and gladly sacrificing one, he's not only weakening the town but helping them get one kill closer to winning.

[Axelrod]

Anyone else feeling that this little tiff between Urza and Mizzy is sounding

just

a bit staged?

Mizzy: if you have accepted your lynch, and you are, in fact, a "pro-town power role" then ought you not be telling us what role you are and what you have done with it this game? Wouldn't that be the townie thing to do?

[Urzassedatives]

These are just from today:

Guys, this is really simple.

We lynch mizzy and then tomorrow if she's town we lynch orto.

come the fuck on.

Said without the thought of consequences. It's not hard to guess, looking at the numbers and lynch history, that we are pretty close to lylo. Suggesting something like this is anti-town at best. He's not a noob, so he ought to know better than suggesting that we do something like that at this stage in the game. Only scum would benefit from this.

Pretty sure I was definitely thinking of the consequences. As I've already explained the point of this is not to set up a 1-2 lynch (which is only a point against me if mizzy comes up town) but mainly to get the town to lynch mizzy who I was pretty sure was scum. Also, as has already been stated by me, the math that supports them both telling the truth is miniscule. I grant that its a possibility, but not a large one, and mafia is probabilistic. The probability tells us that one of orto or mizzy is scum.

then perhaps it's time for a mass claim to determine if there's any other explanation for what happened?

Only scum would benefit from a mass claim. (ThAdmiral was up for the mass claim, too, scumpoints for him.)

Please tell us why "Only scum would benefit from a mass claim." Warrant your assertions, please.

Guys, if we mass claim we will figure out if mizzy is scum or if there is another plausible explanation for last night, and thats ridiculously important because we need to lynch right today or tomorrow.

Now he's trying fear tactics to get the town to do what he wants, and this is after he suggested that we lynch poorly twice in a row and got smacked for it.

Actually, that post is providing the reasoning for why "mass claim benefits the town" If the consequences ARE what I am stating them as, then it's not fear tactics to state them. Do you think I'm missrepresenting the consequences? If so, how?

GUYS STOP FLINGING YOUR VOTES AROUND AND THINK.

We have a RBed player on a night where there was no kill, and generally that should dictate that she or Orto are scum.

The only reason this could be not true is if there are confounding factors caused by other power roles.

I think from my position it's pretty clear that I didn't mess with the kill in any way last night.

Let us mass claim and lynch intelligently, not do this "LOL URZA THINKS MIZZY IS SCUM VOTE: URZA"

Which pretty much seems to me to be what the case is. Erm... Excuse me, it was "scummy as hell"

hard to defend against, that. But I think I've very clearly laid out my position here, and I would be hard pressed to find a reason it's scummy.

So, challenge to the people who are voting me: what about my position is scummy. That is, what is the significant anti town motivation for what I have just laid out. It must be a doozy to be "Scummy as hell"

Then he comes out with this piece of work. He knows he did something scummy and going on the aggressive about it. He even adds in the (bolded) softclaim which even if he's scum wouldn't be a lie.

And here all I am doing is asking the people attacking me to clearly state why. I am not necessarily sure why that's scummy. If you recall batt even responded to this post with clearly laid out reasons which I responded to. How is asking what you need to defend against scummy, again?

Secondly, I am not soft claiming. I am saying that I did not do anything to stop the kill from happening. The purpose of this is not to defend myself, but rather pretty clearly for people to take into account when they calculate the probability of you and orto telling the truth. This "case" looks like you're trying to find things I've said and deliberately taking them out of context and spinning them so that they "Might" seem scummy.

2) It's true, however, considering mizzy already claimed "pro town power role" (lol, scum claim if I've ever seen one) the damage is miniscule, and I've already explained that since we NEED to lynch right today or tomorrow, the benefits of knowing for sure that mizzy is scum or if there's another possibility is drastically important to us, and outweighs outing power roles, because at this point we don't need pro town power roles, we need dead scum. it's as simple as that.

Let me translate:

"I'm going to dismiss her role claim as obvscum so that when we lynch her and she was telling the truth, I can just point back to this and say, "Hey, I thought her claim was false for sure!" I mean, hell, the town's fucked up this much so far, maybe they'll just be blind as bats and let us do this if I make it sound like they'd be retarded to do otherwise."

Only a dipshit would not realize that protective power roles can lengthen the game by days. By carelessly tossing aside power roles at this stage, and gladly sacrificing one, he's not only weakening the town but helping them get one kill closer to winning.

pardon me if your experience is different from mine, but 9/10 of the time when someone claims "Pro town power role" when under pressure, it is because they're scum. I have played over 50 games on this site and others and literally almost every time I have seen that claim, it has been from scum. Town literally don't do it. This is me disbelieving your claim. I am not sure how disbelieving someones claim is scummy. This seems to fit in pretty well with my observation that you are finding people who attack you scummy.


WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT.

Now you're claiming a protective power role? You claimed not to have used your power last night, so I'm pretty sure thats a complete and utter lie.

I don't understand that last passage at all if you're NOT claiming a protective role. Basically it seems like you're trying to raise the impact of lynching you arbitrarily, even though we know damn sure you're not a protective role. So either way you're being dishonest here...

Can we please lynch her already?

[Urzassedatives]

Anyone else feeling that this little tiff between Urza and Mizzy is sounding

just

a bit staged?

Mizzy: if you have accepted your lynch, and you are, in fact, a "pro-town power role" then ought you not be telling us what role you are and what you have done with it this game? Wouldn't that be the townie thing to do?

First part doesnt make much sense given the fact that orto would also have to be in on it.

second part I agree with whole heartedly.

[Mizzy]

Mizzy: if you have accepted your lynch, and you are, in fact, a "pro-town power role" then ought you not be telling us what role you are and what you have done with it this game? Wouldn't that be the townie thing to do?

I am not going to tell what role I am because when I die, I will only come up as my alignment. I don't want the scum knowing any more about the set-up than they already do. And I already said what I did with my role.

[Mizzy]

Pretty sure I was definitely thinking of the consequences. As I've already explained the point of this is not to set up a 1-2 lynch (which is only a point against me if mizzy comes up town) but mainly to get the town to lynch mizzy who I was pretty sure was scum. Also, as has already been stated by me, the math that supports them both telling the truth is miniscule. I grant that its a possibility, but not a large one, and mafia is probabilistic. The probability tells us that one of orto or mizzy is scum.

Did you also consider the possibility that ort is not a pro-town power role? Or that if you are wrong then town loses?

Please tell us why "Only scum would benefit from a mass claim." Warrant your assertions, please.

How can a mass claim help town? By "validating" role claims? A mass-claim can't do that. All it can do is out who the remaining power role is, who I feel we need

alive

in order to win.

Actually, that post is providing the reasoning for why "mass claim benefits the town" If the consequences ARE what I am stating them as, then it's not fear tactics to state them. Do you think I'm missrepresenting the consequences? If so, how?

I think you are scum who wants the town to listen to you so that you win faster, because that's exactly what your "plans" will cause.

WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT.

Now you're claiming a protective power role? You claimed not to have used your power last night, so I'm pretty sure thats a complete and utter lie.

I did no such thing. You said "we don't need pro town power roles" and clearly we have a protective role out there who has already spared one live.

[Korejora]

What? ...

I don't see how your role could have any effect on the setup whatsoever. As far as I can tell - assuming you die today - the only motivation to find out your role, and conversely, for you to hide your role, are, respectively, curiosity and spite.