Newbie 694 (over)

[Xtoxm]

What do you hope to achieve by that, Gieff?

[Xtoxm]

Claiming VT should not factor into your decision of whether or not Xtoxm is scum.

No. Nothing anyone says should factor into your decision. We should roll dice.

[GIEFF]

Claiming VT should not factor into your decision of whether or not Xtoxm is scum.

No. Nothing anyone says should factor into your decision. We should roll dice.

My point is that scum would claim VT in your spot as well. I find it odd that Amished decided to believe that you are town just because you said you are VT.

I also find it odd how quickly both Amished and ham were to believe the cop claim.

[hambargarz]

The way I see it, Xtoxm is the target for lynch as I am inclined to believe CC's claim in the absence of a counter claim.

If this is true, I would predict a roleblock on CC and an NK on MR. If we have a doc it will be a hard decision between the two due to WIFOM. Not to mention a whole WIFOM situation tomorrow if CC and MR are alive.

If Xtoxm is lynched and flips town, would we be willing to lynch CC? (rhetorical question)

[Xtoxm]

Because clealry, this setup is garanteed to have a cop present.

[hambargarz]

Because clealry, this setup is garanteed to have a cop present.

That's the reason for the rhetorical question, If you flip town, CC's role isn't confirmed. Would any one be willing to lynch him? My guess is it will be the same situation as today.

One way of looking at it, is if we lynch CC, we at least learn more about other players.

[GIEFF]

The way I see it, Xtoxm is the target for lynch as I am inclined to believe CC's claim in the absence of a counter claim.

If this is true, I would predict a roleblock on CC and an NK on MR. If we have a doc it will be a hard decision between the two due to WIFOM. Not to mention a whole WIFOM situation tomorrow if CC and MR are alive.

If Xtoxm is lynched and flips town, would we be willing to lynch CC? (rhetorical question)

Why is that a rhetorical question?

What would Xtoxm flipping town have to do with CC? I think you were the first to say the following (in post 738)

Given the recent postings, I'm convinced now that if CC is lynched and flips town, Xtoxm is probably very likely to be scum. And if Xtoxm is lynched today and flips town, CC is very likely to be scum.

I am not at ALL convinced of this. When pressed by me on this point, you said

No I'm not sure, both could in fact be town.... Given the recent exchange between the two, both of them being town is unlikely in my opinion. I would like to give the whole story of why I think this, but this would help the scum more than the town and I believe that discussion is getting a bit ahead of ourselves anyway.

Two townies could easily think each other are scum. I don't see whatever it is you see, nor do I see how posting it would help the scum. Could you at least explain WHY you think posting it would help the scum?


CC, I would like to hear what you think about the strategy of lynching you to prove or disprove your cop claim.

[Xtoxm]

I somewhat doubt he'll endorse it.

[CarnCarn]

Because you are useless to the town now, CC, what do you think about us lynching you to verify your claim?

Bad plan. Here's what would happen:
If there is no doc, MR dies.
If there is a doc (and scum would know because they would have an RB), they just kill someone else with a good chance that they kill the doc (2 scum + not MR, 6 alive = 1/3 chance the NK kills the doc). Admittedly, the doc could then switch to protect someone else, but then so could the scum switch back to killing MR, and so forth (circular thinking).
Anyway, if we lynch scum today, we have a 25% chance of lynching RB, in which case my power would be useful again. (Odds of having RB = 1/2, odds of lynching RB given scum = 1/2; Odds of both = 1/4)

[GIEFF]

I somewhat doubt he'll endorse it.

Do you endorse it?

[Xtoxm]

My first reaction was no, then I thought maybe the cop claim doesn't really change much. But I don't really care so much anymore.

[hambargarz]

Why is that a rhetorical question?

It's rhetorical because there is no right answer to it. Both yes and no would be justifiable

Two townies could easily think each other are scum. I don't see whatever it is you see, nor do I see how posting it would help the scum. Could you at least explain WHY you think posting it would help the scum?

Glad you asked, given the current VT claim from Xtoxm I can now say what I was thinking. Given Xtoxm's quick and decisive attack on CC combined with his tendency to call people to claim roles led me to believe Xtoxm to be a possible cop. Mentioning this earlier would have been anti-town as I would be giving away potential cop tells.

CC's recent claim and Xtoxm's inability to counter claim now casts his behaviour in a different light.

I conceded that both being town was a possibility. The reason it was unlikely is because of Xtoxm's "odd" certainty that CC was scum. If Xtoxm is town, he is quite experienced and we should take his opinion with alot of weight, which means CC was very likely scum (add to this my own suspicions which I outlined in my case against him). If CC is town, then Xtoxm would be very likely scum because of said, "odd" certainty and rushing/pushing for a mislynch.

CC, I would like to hear what you think about the strategy of lynching you to prove or disprove your cop claim.

I don't think it can ever be proven (short of lynching CC) without going into WIFOM.

[hambargarz]

EBWOP: regarding the first part, the question is also rhetorical because I'm making the point that Xtoxm flipping town, probably wouldn't change the town's opinion on CC compared to what they think today.

[GIEFF]

My first reaction was no, then I thought maybe the cop claim doesn't really change much. But I don't really care so much anymore.

If your first reaction was no, then why didn't you unvote?

If Xtoxm is town, he is quite experienced and we should take his opinion with alot of weight,

He led the town to a mislynch on day 1, party because you took his opinion with a lot of weight. As I said much earlier today, I think a new strategy is in order.




Xtoxm, please explain the cop tell you saw from insanepenguin.

[Xtoxm]

I conceded that both being town was a possibility. The reason it was unlikely is because of Xtoxm's "odd" certainty that CC was scum. If Xtoxm is town, he is quite experienced and we should take his opinion with alot of weight, which means CC was very likely scum (add to this my own suspicions which I outlined in my case against him). If CC is town, then Xtoxm would be very likely scum because of said, "odd" certainty and rushing/pushing for a mislynch.

I'm usually pretty good at finding scum, but I am by no means perfect. I've been wrong.

[Xtoxm]

If your first reaction was no, then why didn't you unvote?

Because the only place I would have moved it to was me.

And if anyone had hammered, and he'd been cop, that pretty much confirms them as scum anyway. 1 for 1 is a good trade for the cop.

Xtoxm, please explain the cop tell you saw from insanepenguin.

I don't even remember saying this. I don't know what I saw. I cannot remember.

[GIEFF]

If your first reaction was no, then why didn't you unvote?

Because the only place I would have moved it to was me.

And if anyone had hammered, and he'd been cop, that pretty much confirms them as scum anyway. 1 for 1 is a good trade for the cop.

Xtoxm, please explain the cop tell you saw from insanepenguin.

I don't even remember saying this. I don't know what I saw. I cannot remember.

Do you think CC is scum right now? If not, who are your top 2 suspects?

[Xtoxm]

CC and CR I guess. Nothings really changed. Why?

[GIEFF]

Just want some clues if you flip town.

I thought you were suspecting CC and MR? What changed since you said this:

Infact i'm leaning a bit more away from CR and towards CC-MR pair. He's still a long way above the rest though.

Why is CR back in the mix over MR now, if you think the cop report is fake?

[Xtoxm]

Uhh, a lot. You haven't been paying attention...

The cop claim changes little, if he's lying, it doesn't really say much about MR. If he's town then yeh obv he's clear.

[magicrabbit]

What is the current vote count?

And does anybody think there is a realistic shot of lynching somebody besides CC or Xtoxm?

[Amished]

Back, and to GIEFF, I said that if everyone was telling the truth I pretty much knew who the scum were. Admittedly, that's a huge if.

I guess I'm leaning towards thinking CC is telling the truth with the cop claim. I thought that a 50/50 chance of sacrificing themselves to draw out the real cop is a bad idea. Just like xtoxm said, losing a scum for a cop is a bad deal for scum. It's a hell of a gambit, probably something that I wouldn't do as scum if I were in their place. Also, with ham's points about xtoxm wanting to know roles, and xtoxm not claiming cop, wouldn't that make him even more like scum? Then a lot of this is wifom (hammer me already, you bums! (paraphrased)) which a scum might try, especially given who was left that wasn't voting for him. Though it could be a pretty obvious attempt to draw out a newbie scum... DAMN YOU MAFIA! Ok, I'm just getting frustrated at the circles inside of circles who aren't really circles but are pretending really really hard.

To MR: I'm pretty sure it's
xtoxm: 2 (CR and CC)
CC: 2 (MR and xtoxm)
MR: 1 (amish)
With ham and GIEFF not voting.

I doubt the way we go it's possible for anybody else to be a lynch target today while still having enough discussion to suit all of us. (I'm assuming this is true) that if an IC gets "demoted" of sorts if they self hammer, but with that sole exception of preventing a no lynch, that the no lynch is that bad. Which I can see, as it gives scum a free night kill, and all the same issues are still raised with the current cast of characters. Back on the teeter-totter, I'm leaning towards an xtoxm being more of a better target to lynch over CC.

[hambargarz]

I guess I'm leaning towards thinking CC is telling the truth with the cop claim...
...
To MR: I'm pretty sure it's
xtoxm: 2 (CR and CC)
CC: 2 (MR and xtoxm)
MR: 1 (amish)
With ham and GIEFF not voting.

If you believe the cop claim, why is your vote on MR?

Also, with ham's points about xtoxm wanting to know roles, and xtoxm not claiming cop, wouldn't that make him even more like scum?

What I meant was xtoxm tendency to ask roles and his push for CC's case once it was raised with an "odd" certainty was what made me suspect a cop. His recent VT claim, has changed all this. So now it just looks scummy. See what I mean?

Also the business with the "hammer me bums!" is WIFOM, that's why I've avoided commenting about it. (Although asking for ones own lynch is anti-town on Xtoxm's part and introducing the WIFOM around it is a bit scummy. I don't see a towny player having a motive for acting that way)

[GIEFF]

Vote Amished

[hasdgfas]

VOTE COUNT:

Xtoxm(2): ClockworkRuse, CarnCarn
magicrabbit(1): Amished
CarnCarn(2): Xtoxm, magicrabbit
Amished(1): GIEFF


Not Voting: hambargarz
7 alive, 4 to lynch

Deadline in

3 days

at approximately 11 PM EST.