Mini #704: Hunchback of Notre Dame, Game Over

[Mizzy]

Oh, and, quick question. Why would I claim something dangerous like 1-shot vig when I could have claimed something safe like a second doctor or roleblocker?

[Korejora]

Because that's your actual role?

[Mizzy]

Because that's your actual role?

Yes, correct. Note that I am not a scum 1-shot vig, I am a townie one-shot vig. If I had been a scum vig, I'd have wasted no time and killed someone immediately, leaving a night with 2 kills. Which hasn't happened.

[ThAdmiral]

I'm Back.

ThAd, what has Urza's done to look the most town?

A few people seem to think that urza coming out with bold statements and setting up potential 1-2 lynches makes him seem scummy, but I wholeheartedly disagree. I can't remember a time scum has come out so strongly and put their in-game reputation on the line, and I challenge others to do so.
Also I basically agree with him fully about mizzy.

Because that's your actual role?

Yes, correct. Note that I am not a scum 1-shot vig, I am a townie one-shot vig. If I had been a scum vig, I'd have wasted no time and killed someone immediately, leaving a night with 2 kills. Which hasn't happened.

This is false logic.
I could also see reason to hold back the ability to hit the town with a double whammy later in the game to get the win one day quicker.


I still think mizzy is the correct play, however the batt claim has changed things somewhat.
I don't like suggesting this but we could just tell mizzy to kill someone of our choosing tonight instead of lynching her.
would you agree to that mizzy?

[Mizzy]

I don't like suggesting this but we could just tell mizzy to kill someone of our choosing tonight instead of lynching her.
would you agree to that mizzy?

I would, yes, but there is the chance that the scum have a roleblocker or doctor which would nullify my vig kill.

[Urzassedatives]

Oh, and, quick question. Why would I claim something dangerous like 1-shot vig when I could have claimed something safe like a second doctor or roleblocker?

Ironically this is a textbook example of wifom.

[destructor]

I'm a Cop.
N1 - Mafia on CarnCarn. He flipped town - I am Insane (see rule 3).
N2 - Town on Mizzy - She

is

Mafia.

Town:
1 2-shot Roleblocker
1 Doc
1 Insane Cop
6 Vanilla

That's pretty powerful. I would count on the scumteam having a Roleblocker. It's night 2 now and the RB may have used both shots already, in which case I can guarantee another investigation tonight if Batt protects me. Even if I'm blocked, at least we'll know for certain if a scum RB is in this setup.

I thought from the get go that if a Vig was in this setup it'd be scum given that the Mafia could lose by Night 1 if they (not including the Traitor) were lynched and Vig'd, which seemed unreasonably swingy. If Mizzy is a Vig it's entirely possible that her kill was blocked or stopped last night or that Batt stopped her kill in Night 1. On the other hand, she's fake claiming altogether and has successfully outed the town's powers.

Batt, who did you protect N1?

[Battousai]

N1

Batt protects Machiavellian-Mafia
Ort blocks roflcopter
Destructor investigates CarnCarn (guilty)

N2

Batt protects Axelrod
Ort blocks Mizzy
Destructor investigates Mizzy (innocent)

[Mizzy]

How ironic that the person I most suspect as scum should claim cop and say he investigated CC, who I said I felt was the traitor.

I don't believe destructor for a second.

What a desperate bid to get me lynched. And you know why? Because with my help, town could win in ONE NIGHT.

[Mizzy]

Oh, and by the way, since this basically ensures I get lynched and town goes into lylo:

Scumteam = destructor, Urzassedatives and ThAdmiral.

I expect a whole lot of apologies when I die and come up town. My email is mizziness@gmail.com and my AIM is Tiasale. I seriously better see some fucking I'm-sorries.

[ortolan]

Well, one of us is lying.

FYI It was already obvious to me that Mizzy was going to claim vig, had she said anything else I would have voted for her immediately.

She said she hadn't used her ability to date (I believe, I can't find the post now but I'm sure she did), which meant she obviously wasn't cop/doctor or even another roleblocker

I believe the following will necessarily result in a scum-lynch by LYOL (I don't see how today can be LYOL):

Lynch Mizzy today

If Mizzy flips town, destructor is scum, lynch tomorrow- Battousai/Axelrod are cleared.

If Mizzy flips scum, then Battousai protects destructor

If destructor dies overnight, Battousai is scum

If destructor doesn't die then he will have investigated someone else.

Either way I believe we have dead scum either today or tomorrow. What are opinions of the plan?

[ortolan]

What a desperate bid to get me lynched. And you know why? Because with my help, town could win in ONE NIGHT.

What? How?

[Korejora]

Theoretical problems:

Mizzy flips mafia.
The surviving mafia (or traitor) is a roleblocker.
They block the doctor and kill the cop, causing us to kill the doctor.

We still kill a mafiate in this case, but lose all our power roles and could be left with 3 town vs 2 mafia.

Mizzy flips town.
The mafia has a vigilante.
They kill two players - probably the doctor and his confirmed town.

We lose immediately in this case if there is a traitor present, although that is a worst case scenario.

Notably, if the traitor is already dead, these are not as disadvantageous, and they aren't especially likely in and of themselves.

There are other possibilities, too, but I think those are probably the worst two, and I have to go.

[ortolan]

About your first point: taken, but I'd like to see you do one of your probability calculations for whether there is a scum roleblocker (you can do it either if there's an additional scum role-blocker or if I'm the scum roleblocker and I lied about using my roleblocks )

Your second point is an issue regardless of whom we lynch, is it not? The only way to overcome it is to no-lynch.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

I find destructor's claim to be a lot more believable. His guilty on CC is strongly linked towards his aggressive play towards CC. Plus destructor was one of the people who immediately voted Mizzy at the start of today.

So I think Mizzy is lying, and her emotional appeals are not helping her cause.

Vote: Mizzy

[Mizzy]

What a desperate bid to get me lynched. And you know why? Because with my help, town could win in ONE NIGHT.

What? How?

I think destructor is lying. That's why I think desperate. And ort is right, I had already softclaimed Vig a long, long time ago. This should not have been a new concept.

[ThAdmiral]

Well, one of us is lying.

FYI It was already obvious to me that Mizzy was going to claim vig, had she said anything else I would have voted for her immediately.

She said she hadn't used her ability to date (I believe, I can't find the post now but I'm sure she did), which meant she obviously wasn't cop/doctor or even another roleblocker

I believe the following will necessarily result in a scum-lynch by LYOL (I don't see how today can be LYOL):

Lynch Mizzy today

If Mizzy flips town, destructor is scum, lynch tomorrow- Battousai/Axelrod are cleared.

If Mizzy flips scum, then Battousai protects destructor

If destructor dies overnight, Battousai is scum

If destructor doesn't die then he will have investigated someone else.

Either way I believe we have dead scum either today or tomorrow. What are opinions of the plan?

It is the right play. With all the roles in the open it is really the only thing we can do.

[Axelrod]

So, Destructor is either (1) telling the truth and Mizzy is scum, or (2) he's lying, which will become evident immediately after the Lynch, leading to his own death tomorrow. As scum, this would seem a stupid thing to do, especially since Mizzy was the leading candidate to get lynched even before he claimed.

Only way it seems he would possibly do such a thing is if he though the scum could win it all

tonight

with a mis-lynch today. Checking to see if that is even possible - we have 9 alive with a minimum 6 town and a max 3 scum. If one of the scum was a vig. then they could get 2 kills tonight. that would make it 4 town tomorrow. Destructor still gets toasted. That leaves a max 2 scum, and one of them is the traitor who the other doean't even know.

I'm not seeing the gambit here.

Which makes this an easy:

Vote: Mizzy

Batt. ought definitely protect Destructor, and is probably dead tonight, but he's done his job well.

[destructor]

If Mizzy flips town, destructor is scum, lynch tomorrow

(2) he's lying, which will become evident immediately after the Lynch, leading to his own death tomorrow.

Whatever she flips, she is definitely Mafia.

Note that Mizzy's reaction to my claim is not to say that I am lying, but that she

thinks

I'm lying. As town, she could not possibly be anything short of certain about the honesty of my claim.

[Battousai]

I'm not sold on Destructers claim, and I will protect whoever I like. I probably will be killed, so it doesn't matter anyways. I would rather protect Axelrod to make sure he makes it through. But you never know.

[Korejora]

Your wish is my command, gypsy-o'-mine :Þ

Assumptions:
- Mizzy is lynched today.
- Mizzy flips mafia.
Requirements:
- The mafia have a power role (1/2)
- The role is a roleblocker (1/3)
- The roleblocker is a surviving mafia player (8/15)
- The roleblocker still has blocks left (3/4)*

*Assuming the roleblocker has a 50/50 chance of blocking versus not blocking.

1/15 chance.

@Axelrod: I wasn't aware we were living in a magical world of unicorns and rainbows where mislynches don't cause death...?


P.S.: wait what, Batt? You think he'd lie about being a cop just to get his scumbuddy lynched?

[Korejora]

(ebwop)

Depending on how the moderator created the setup, the chance of there being a roleblocker in the first place could be 1/4 instead of 1/6, which raises the odds to 1/10.

[petroleumjelly]

Day Three Vote Count #5: End of Day Three

5 Mizzy (Urzassedatives, destructor, ThAdmiral, Machiavellian-Mafia, Axelrod)
2 Urzassedatives (ortolan, Battousai)
1 Destructor (Mizzy)

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lynch, and

3

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is January 31, 9:59 pm CDT.

Not Voting – 1 – Korejora

~

Tempus edax, homo edacior*

; which I should be glad to translate thus: time is blind, man is stupid.

* Time is a devourer; man, more so.

Mizzy, Town, has been lynched!

It is now

Night Three

. Choices are due by January 26, 9:59 pm CDT.

[petroleumjelly]

Time is the architect, the nation is the builder.

Man is the destroyer.

Battousai, Town, has been killed!

It is now

Day Four

. With

7

alive, it takes

4

to lynch and

3

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is February 9, 11:59 pm CDT.

[Thestatusquo]

meh.

I hate this game.

I have been wrong the whole fucking game.

Just lynch me already.