Mini 718: DICTATOR Mafia {Game over!}

[MonkeyMan576]

I think the town is beginning to see my side of the argument, and rightfully so.

I think a lot of the town is on the fence between me and Gorrad, and doesn't actually want me dead, per se. Gorrad seems intent on getting me executed no matter what evidence there is against him or anyone else. I, on the other hand, wasn't strong on a Gorrad execution until after his reaction to my overthrow attempt. Gorrad's reaction seems to suggest some premeditation on how to get the town on his side.

[SiestaGuru]

Hummm, well now that was intresting...

In case a execution somehow goes before a overthrow if it was never seen by a mod or if im somehow still the dictator, im going to follow 2 of the rules (4 votes against mm, and the overthrow). So:

Execute: MonkeyMan576

If that doen't work, well, theres not much else I can do.


(the 4 votes would be by me, gorrad, moratorium, carncarn)

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

First dice roll is MonkeyMan's, 1~11 = overthrow

Original Roll String: 1d20

1 20-Sided Dice: (20) = 20

Second dice roll is Gorrad's, 1~7 = overthrow

Original Roll String: 1d10

1 10-Sided Dice: (6) = 6

Third dice roll is orangepenguin's, 1~17 = overthrow

Original Roll String: 1d20

1 20-Sided Dice: (5) = 5

The person with the most recent successful overthrow becomes the new DICTATOR.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

orangepenguin is the new DICTATOR! He may execute 24 hours after his overthrow post.

MM, deadline extention to give SiestaGuru a chance to do something?

Extension request denied.

Also, both MonkeyMan's and SiestaGuru's execution attempts failed.

[SiestaGuru]

Orangepenguin it is...

Im not too sure what to tink about that, he hasent shown much of himself. Maybe we could make korlash the dictator by ordering jazzmyn to overthrow followed by a korlash overthrow.. Id feel much more comfortable with him as our dictator.

Or is orange fine by you guys?

[Moratorium]

We have to stay with orangepenguin now. If we overthrow, Machiavellian-Mafia might not return in time to settle the overthrow attempt and still have enough time for the dictator to execute. As it stands now, orangepenguin, a very lurkish player, will only have a 12 hour window on Saturday (from 7am which is 24 hours after he became dictator to 7pm which is deadline) to execute. So it's highly possible that we will miss an execution based solely on someone not showing up.

Again, we have to stay with orangepenguin because we are out of time. If he is overthrown now, it is an obvscum move.

So we're in a terrible spot, and depending on a player that hasn't contributed all that much to the game.

I'll be honest, we town have lost control of this game. I put the probability of scum winning at something like 90% right now. I'm not giving up, but things look terrible.

We're in

Zugswang

. The compulsion to fix the situation we're in has a high probability of putting us in a worse situation.

I'm a damn prophet.

[Moratorium]

orangepenguin is the new DICTATOR! He may execute 24 hours after his overthrow post.

Wanted to confirm what I was saying about running out of time, but spotted this instead. orangepenguin's overthrow attempt was near midnight Friday morning, not at 7am Friday morning (which was when M-M resolved it). So orangepenguin has from midnight tonight until 7pm tomorrow to execute.

19 hours. Hope you don't have something to do Saturday, orange.

[Moratorium]

I am actually hoping all 3 of ours fails, and Siesta remains.

And here's the math on this, because I found this statement utterly ridiculous when I read it.

1st overthrow: 55% success
2nd overthrow: 70% success
3rd overthrow: 85% success

Chance of 1st overthrow failing: 45%
Chance of 1st and 2nd overthrow failing: 13.5%
Chance of 1st, 2nd and 3rd overthrow failing: 2.025%

The chance on all three of the overthrows failing is approximately 1 in 50. This was your plan?

[SiestaGuru]

Yeh I thought it was kindda stupid aswell. But he never stated that was his plan, he was just hoping for it. I guess having hope at only 2% odds is possible.

If it was his plan to keep me in the dictator position, he wouldnt have overthrown himself since it only decreases the odds. But obviously, having a 85% chance of not having gorrad/mm as our dictator is a better option then giving me a extra 11% chance of keeping the power (according to your calculations).

[Gorrad]

Here's the thing- majority wants MM dead. That's been established. He's overthrowing to save himself, I'm overthrowing to, I dunno, make it so the majority is actually followed. If the majority of the town wanted me dead, I'd take it like a man. But they don't, so I'm going to overthrow to make sure what the town wants happens.

As for if Jazz or Korlash was scum, that's a valid point, except that if they didn't follow majority, we'd know and execute them tomorrow. I wouldn't take that risk as scum.

Also, I checked with the mod- multiple overthrow attempts can be made at the same time.

Post 435 should confirm that he's scum. He's trying to kill someone not majority voted to save his own skin. MM, if you're town, stop trying to weasel out of it.

[Gorrad]

Whoops! That post was made not seeing any of page 19. Page 19 doesn't change my points, but this should explains why I said some of what I did.

We can't overthrow at this point. OP, a post of intent would be nice.

[SiestaGuru]

Here's the thing- majority wants MM dead. That's been established. He's overthrowing to save himself, I'm overthrowing to, I dunno, make it so the majority is actually followed. If the majority of the town wanted me dead, I'd take it like a man. But they don't, so I'm going to overthrow to make sure what the town wants happens.

As for if Jazz or Korlash was scum, that's a valid point, except that if they didn't follow majority, we'd know and execute them tomorrow. I wouldn't take that risk as scum.

Also, I checked with the mod- multiple overthrow attempts can be made at the same time.

Post 435 should confirm that he's scum. He's trying to kill someone not majority voted to save his own skin. MM, if you're town, stop trying to weasel out of it.

Actually, you are the number 2 suspect among players. Since hes not going to execute himself, he would obviously execute the number 2 suspect.
I find this argument very weak gorrad, and it really makes you look alot more suspicious. I might even say it makes you as suspicious as MM.

[MonkeyMan576]

The idea that I should take being executed "like a man", knowing I am town, is a very anti-town statement from Gorrad.

[CarnCarn]

I don't see how the town lost the game. A no execution is a bad scenario, but that's better than lynching a townie, in my opinion. It doesn't mean the mafia has won the game altogether.

No execution is not better than lynching a towie who is so suspicious. By not executing you, we keep you around later in the game when we NEED to execute scum and we still have all of your issues to sort out.

No execution today is not an option we can afford. Anyone who overthrows to prevent an execution from occuring today will be scum in my eyes.

[MonkeyMan576]

I don't see how the town lost the game. A no execution is a bad scenario, but that's better than lynching a townie, in my opinion. It doesn't mean the mafia has won the game altogether.

No execution is not better than

lynching a towie who is so suspicious

. By not executing you, we keep you around later in the game when we NEED to execute scum and we still have all of your issues to sort out.

No execution today is not an option we can afford. Anyone who overthrows to prevent an execution from occuring today will be scum in my eyes.

I'm not suggesting a no execution is good. And suspicious townie is still a townie. And yet you think I should still be executed, and it sounds like you know I'm town. Slip of the tounge there?

FOS: CarnCarn

[CarnCarn]

I'm a damn prophet.

No, part of this whole cascade of overthrows is on your shoulders.

But, reading back, SG's overthrow was much worse:

I think mora is right, and since he has failed Im attempting the same thing, im absolutely not convinced that carn is scum, but its best to take as few risks as possible.
I better not fail aswell...

overthrow: CarnCarn

Using another player's (who was widely considered to be town at that point) reasoning to overthrow, when you don't even think I'm scum? This is something I want to hear answered in more detail.

@Monkey: You SHOULD still be executed. You are not confirmed town in any way to anyone else (assuming for a second that you are town). Your FoS is pretty ridiculous because is no way was I actually saying I thought

you

were town.

[Korlash]

Can I switch my vote to Gorrad?

[Moratorium]

No, part of this whole cascade of overthrows is on your shoulders.

Agreed.

[Gorrad]

Here's the thing- majority wants MM dead. That's been established. He's overthrowing to save himself, I'm overthrowing to, I dunno, make it so the majority is actually followed. If the majority of the town wanted me dead, I'd take it like a man. But they don't, so I'm going to overthrow to make sure what the town wants happens.

As for if Jazz or Korlash was scum, that's a valid point, except that if they didn't follow majority, we'd know and execute them tomorrow. I wouldn't take that risk as scum.

Also, I checked with the mod- multiple overthrow attempts can be made at the same time.

Post 435 should confirm that he's scum. He's trying to kill someone not majority voted to save his own skin. MM, if you're town, stop trying to weasel out of it.

Actually, you are the number 2 suspect among players. Since hes not going to execute himself, he would obviously execute the number 2 suspect.
I find this argument very weak gorrad, and it really makes you look alot more suspicious. I might even say it makes you as suspicious as MM.

Gods, I'd be doing this even if I wasn't #2. He's trying to go against majority decision to save his own hide, and I'm trying to stop that. How in the nine rings does that make ME scummy?

And MM, if a townie is on the chop block, they should accept it, not throw things into chaos like you did. Make a final case on people, one that people can look back on to see your views, and be done with it.

[Moratorium]

If you see something you don't understand, ASK! If you have any questions feel free to PM me directly.

I've probably asked M-M more questions about his moderated games than any other moderator so far, and he's probably sick of me now, but I'm just going to "play by the rules", as it were...

MM, deadline extention to give SiestaGuru a chance to do something?

Extension request denied.

Mod: The length of a day is specified in the rules...

1. Each day will last a maximum of 25 real-life days, or 600 real-life hours, which is approximately 3.5 weeks.

...but there are no details about Extension requests. Are we to interpret Special Rule #1 (i.e. "maximum") as meaning that your default position is to

deny all extension requests

?

I suspect the answer is something like "Yes, and see Special Rule #10", but I'm trying to figure out whether the request was denied because SiestaGuru was no longer the dictator (and the extension was regarding allowing Siesta more time to make a decision), or whether it was just a sweeping general policy.

[Moratorium]

How in the

nine rings

does that make ME scummy?

[CarnCarn]

Guys, guys, I have an idea: execute MM, use special police to take out Gorrad (if monkey flips town). If Monkey flips scum, choice (protect/kill) is up to the dictator. This way, we don't have to waste time debating Gorrad tomorrow if monkey's execution doesn't go the way we think.

^^This is what I would have done as dictator, btw.

[SiestaGuru]

I'm a damn prophet.

No, part of this whole cascade of overthrows is on your shoulders.

But, reading back, SG's overthrow was much worse:

I think mora is right, and since he has failed Im attempting the same thing, im absolutely not convinced that carn is scum, but its best to take as few risks as possible.
I better not fail aswell...

overthrow: CarnCarn

Using another player's (who was widely considered to be town at that point) reasoning to overthrow, when you don't even think I'm scum? This is something I want to hear answered in more detail.

@Monkey: You SHOULD still be executed. You are not confirmed town in any way to anyone else (assuming for a second that you are town). Your FoS is pretty ridiculous because is no way was I actually saying I thought

you

were town.

You were at the time in the vague undecided area of my mind, so even though I wasnt conviced that you were scum, I felt the odds were a bit over the average. Maybe this opinion was influenced a bit by moratoriums posts ( I was leaning a bit more to you being towny before his post) since I felt pretty confident about him being town, bur arent we supposed to take note of good arguments supplied by townish players?

Who in his right mind would want a dictator who is as suspicious as you were? So I figured someone had to overthrow you after mora failed. Id rather overthrow myself then wait for shady characters like gorrad or mm to overthrow.

Besides, I was hoping that if I succedeed, the rules I had thought of already would be good enough to prevent a overthrow. This unfortunatly turned out to be false as we have learned by now, but at the time it sounded like quite the idea to me.

The only things I regret, is not overthrowing before Mora did so and not being there to execute MM when vote #4 was cast.

[Korlash]

I suspect the answer is something like "Yes, and see Special Rule #10", but I'm trying to figure out whether the request was denied because SiestaGuru was no longer the dictator (and the extension was regarding allowing Siesta more time to make a decision), or whether it was just a sweeping general policy.

Depends actully. We could force the mod to give us an extension by accusing him of favoring scum. However that could have the downsides of game abandonment or modkills. Technically the 24 hour rule combined with a no extension policy is favoring scum as it gives them a chance to make it impossible for town to be able to lynch, which... ever since the first game of mafia has been town's only real weapon.

It should be any overthrow attempt carries with it an extension of enough time to make sure they will hav the chance to execute. An overthrow made 2 hours before the deadline should have a 24+ deadline extension acompany it. (theoretically 48+ but I wouldn't push it too much)

However the mod could also argue the rules were common knowledge and so if the town allowed itself to get into a situation like this it's our own fault... In which case all we can do is bitch and moan...

Gods, I'd be doing this even if I wasn't #2. He's trying to go against majority decision to save his own hide, and I'm trying to stop that. How in the nine rings does that make ME scummy?

Holy crap he has the God's on his side... Quick! Someone call Thor, I have him on speed dial. He should be able to clear this up...

What makes you scummy is an overthrow attempt being made without even knowing who the dictator was. This has countless reasons attached to it. I mean for all you knew you were overthrowing SG, in addition you also gave room for me, jazz, and look at that Orange to take the seat with a higher %. AND this close to deadline means that once someone becomes the new dictator the odds of keepign it are nearly... whats the word... right is it 100? 100 right? Yeah, pretty high odds.

So you gave room for scum to take it, at a time where scum would keep it, and you had no idea who the dictator even was when you ovrthrew... Impatience and anti-town behavior... Does that answer your question?

Guys, guys, I have an idea: execute MM, use special police to take out Gorrad (if monkey flips town). If Monkey flips scum, choice (protect/kill) is up to the dictator. This way, we don't have to waste time debating Gorrad tomorrow if monkey's execution doesn't go the way we think.

^^This is what I would have done as dictator, btw.

It's not a bad idea... however as with all choices there are risks and downsides... If both Gorrad or Monkey are town, town will probably lose entering tomorrow...

[Moratorium]

Technically the 24 hour rule combined with a no extension policy is favoring scum as it gives them a chance to make it impossible for town to be able to lynch, which... ever since the first game of mafia has been town's only real weapon.

This essentially is the driving idea behind my question.

Although I'm simply assuming that the game has been balanced to take account for it if such a "

L

ast

D

ay

O

verthrow

D

eadzone" (I'm trademarking this...) does exist, I'd still like to know how the rules should be interpreted.

LDOD

, baby.