Mini #704: Hunchback of Notre Dame, Game Over

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Regular probability says destructor is lying scum. But my own thinking leads me to believe there is a good chance destructor is telling the truth and Mizzy was the Traitor.

Axelrod is cleared, I believe ort's claims, and CR/Kore is semi-cleared. So now from my point of view, the two remaining scum are probably Urza and ThAdmiral, who happens to be my top two suspects for the majority of this game.

[ThAdmiral]

I was also thinking that (about the traitor thing). Is anyone else glad mizzy is dead anyway, regardless?

I'd still be interested to see what destructor has to say.

[Korejora]

I don't understand the gambit. A vigilante (which could have even been the traitor) doesn't seem worth a mafia death. Why the suicide?

If there is any possible way destructor is not lying, I don't see it. At all.

[ortolan]

Let's see what destructor has to say.

[ortolan]

Is anyone else glad mizzy is dead anyway, regardless?

LOL

[Axelrod]

How is Destructor not lying?

He claims he got "scum" on CC, who flipped town. This means he's lying scum of insane right there, no other possibilities, yes?

He got "town" on Mizzy, who flipped town. This means he's lying scum - unless Mizzy was, in fact, the Traitor role, which will show as "town" to any Cop, Sane or Insane, and will also show as "town" upon death?

And no roles are revealed on Death. Did I mention that this game is sucky before?

Frankly, I don't see how we let him live here. I did my Maths wrong yesterday (doh), so right now there are 7 of us with still a potential 3 scum. If there are three scum and we miss-lynch, we just lose. If, we got the traitor already, then we don't lose, but we don't

know

if we got the Traitor until Destructor is dead. If he comes up town, then we got the Traitor. Plus we get the benefit of whatever inspector he got last Night.

So a Destructor Lynch means, worst case, that tomorrow there will be 3 town and 2 scum. That, at first blush, seems easily the safest thing to do.

[destructor]

I don't understand the gambit. A vigilante (which could have even been the traitor) doesn't seem worth a mafia death. Why the suicide?

If there is any possible way destructor is not lying, I don't see it. At all.

If Mizzy hadn't have been the Traitor, this conversation wouldn't even be happening.

Why is it more likely that I'm lying than telling the truth? The argument that there was a lack of motivation for scum to claim Cop at that point is a good one - Mizzy was already going to be lynched and there would be little to be gained by fake-claiming besides scrutiny. I was hesitant about claiming until Batt did, at which point I realised that the best play was to claim immediately.

Or another way, why is it more likely that Mizzy was a Townie and not the Traitor? Her biggest contribution to the game was getting into a spat with ort. She was wishy-washy, said she didn't like to vote until she was "sure" about things, yet called me scum with the vaguest case we saw all game. I also pointed out how her comments about my claim at the end of yesterday were telling of her alignment and how she named ThAd, Urza and MM as scum then backtracked when I mentioned that she was still voting for

me

.

Frankly, I don't see how we let him live here. I did my Maths wrong yesterday (doh), so right now there are 7 of us with still a potential 3 scum. If there are three scum and we miss-lynch, we just lose. If, we got the traitor already, then we don't lose, but we don't know if we got the Traitor until Destructor is dead. If he comes up town, then we got the Traitor. Plus we get the benefit of whatever inspector he got last Night.

So a Destructor Lynch means, worst case, that tomorrow there will be 3 town and 2 scum. That, at first blush, seems easily the safest thing to do.

See above, re: why I would fake-claim and Mizzy revealing that she wasn't Town by saying she

"thought

I was lying. Your plan is total overkill that will put the town into a precarious 3-player end-game in Day 6 as opposed to having 1 scum left tomorrow and the 2 lynches you need to find them without fail.


As for my result:
"Town" on ThAdmiral.
Last scum is Urza or MM, leaning Urza.

Vote: ThAdmiral

[Thestatusquo]

What is your reasoning for not thinking carncarn was the traitor and mizzy and theadmiral are in fact innocent?

[destructor]

I got a "Mafia" result on CarnCarn but he flipped Town, so he couldn't have been the traitor. (Set-up rule 3)

[Axelrod]

I don't understand the gambit. A vigilante (which could have even been the traitor) doesn't seem worth a mafia death. Why the suicide?

If there is any possible way destructor is not lying, I don't see it. At all.

If Mizzy hadn't have been the Traitor, this conversation wouldn't even be happening.

Why is it more likely that I'm lying than telling the truth? The argument that there was a lack of motivation for scum to claim Cop at that point is a good one - Mizzy was already going to be lynched and there would be little to be gained by fake-claiming besides scrutiny. I was hesitant about claiming until Batt did, at which point I realised that the best play was to claim immediately.

Or another way, why is it more likely that Mizzy was a Townie and not the Traitor? Her biggest contribution to the game was getting into a spat with ort. She was wishy-washy, said she didn't like to vote until she was "sure" about things, yet called me scum with the vaguest case we saw all game. I also pointed out how her comments about my claim at the end of yesterday were telling of her alignment and how she named ThAd, Urza and MM as scum then backtracked when I mentioned that she was still voting for

me

.

Frankly, I don't see how we let him live here. I did my Maths wrong yesterday (doh), so right now there are 7 of us with still a potential 3 scum. If there are three scum and we miss-lynch, we just lose. If, we got the traitor already, then we don't lose, but we don't know if we got the Traitor until Destructor is dead. If he comes up town, then we got the Traitor. Plus we get the benefit of whatever inspector he got last Night.

So a Destructor Lynch means, worst case, that tomorrow there will be 3 town and 2 scum. That, at first blush, seems easily the safest thing to do.

See above, re: why I would fake-claim and Mizzy revealing that she wasn't Town by saying she

"thought

I was lying. Your plan is total overkill that will put the town into a precarious 3-player end-game in Day 6 as opposed to having 1 scum left tomorrow and the 2 lynches you need to find them without fail.


As for my result:
"Town" on ThAdmiral.
Last scum is Urza or MM, leaning Urza.

Vote: ThAdmiral

Frankly, at this stage of the proceedings, with NO visible dead scum, I'd be thrilled with a 3-man end game day after tomorrow. You ought to be too, since you'd be auto NK tonight if you were telling the truth and you would not be getting any more investigations anyway.

Lynch you -> 6 players (pretty much guaranteed 4 town 2 scum).
Scum NK - > 5 players (3 town, 2 scum)
If you flipped town, Lynch thAdmiral - > 4 players (3 town, 1 scum)
Scum NK -> 3 players.

The last two town will just have to figure it out. God willing I won't be one of them

[ThAdmiral]

well that does it for me.

vote: destructor

if he's not scum then this game is screwed and town had no chance anyway.

[destructor]

You ought to be too, since you'd be auto NK tonight if you were telling the truth and you would not be getting any more investigations anyway.

Only that I'm all but entirely certain that we'll inevitably win if we lynch ThAd today.
Lynch ThAd -> 6 players (1 scum, 5 town)
NK -> 5 players (1 scum, 4 town)
Proceed to lynch MM and Urza over Days 5 and 6.
Game over! Town wins!

Winning in Day 6 will essentially come down to a coin flip if both Urza and MM are still alive. That is, there's a 50% chance the town loses.

if he's not scum then this game is screwed and town had no chance anyway.

Hi ThAd-scum. If you are town, how could I possibly not be scum?

[Axelrod]

Incidentally, it would appear we are back to Batt. having prevented a kill as the explanation for the lack of kill Night before last (as opposed to a RB of Mizzy).

While that looks good for me and all, it actually puts Ort. back into play as possible scum. It would have been quite the gambit for him to come out against Mizzy the way he did, however, if he were scum just trying to buss somebody - without knowledge that Destructor was going to claim a Cop result? Really, he'd only even possibly do this if him and Destructor were a team, I'm thinking.

Which might be another reason to lynch Destructor. It's still way the safest thing to do.

I am liking his responses quite a bit, however, and thAdmiral has been scummy for a long, long time....Do we trust him and risk the epic fail? I'm torn.

[Korejora]

OH. Oh. ohhhh. Now I see. And feel better. But now I also see the gambit. Also, I don't quite see how I'm 'semi-cleared'...?

I feel like Mizzy was the traitor, due to the manner of her going - she repeatedly and adamantly insisted that she would flip town, as if it were all-important, disregarding other options such as, oh, I don't know, helping the town, or trying to convince the town of her innocence.

This still doesn't necessarily clear destructor, and I find it somewhat unlikely that he'd happen to hit scum. Although less useful, I'd feel better about trusting him if he had found a townie.

...having said that, I reeeeally want to believe he's not lying. ._.

[ortolan]

destructor's claim is still plausible to me.

It has to be said though- if he is telling the truth then Mizzy was the traitor, which means we're already down to 2 scum. Which means if we mislynch destructor we will still have another day. If we lynch ThAdmiral then we might just be handing the win to scum. There's also the fact I haven't found ThAdmiral particularly scummy all game (despite what others have said)- his lurky minimal posting is the same as what I saw in assassin in the hospital when he was town, and I haven't disagreed with most of his positions IIRC.

So I think a destructor lynch is the safest option.

While that looks good for me and all, it actually puts Ort. back into play as possible scum. It would have been quite the gambit for him to come out against Mizzy the way he did, however, if he were scum just trying to buss somebody - without knowledge that Destructor was going to claim a Cop result? Really, he'd only even possibly do this if him and Destructor were a team, I'm thinking.

I don't understand your argument. Are you saying I was trying to bus Mizzy or destructor? I didn't attack destructor and I don't see what possible motivation I could have for "busing" Mizzy if she was the traitor and I was mafia.

[ThAdmiral]

I'm thinking now that mm has to be scum with destructor.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

I think the reward from nailing ThAdmiral-scum is much greater than the small risk of destructor-scum, so

Vote: ThAdmiral

[destructor]

This still doesn't necessarily clear destructor, and I find it somewhat unlikely that he'd happen to hit scum. Although less useful, I'd feel better about trusting him if he had found a townie.

In my mind, the last two scum could only have been from MM, ThAd and Urza, so I had a 2/3 catching them last night.

And with terrible timing...

Mod:

I'm going to be on LA for about three weeks. I can try to get on once every few days, depending on whether or not I can find free wireless hotspots. heh. If this is a problem, I can help you find a replacement or something. =/

[ortolan]

I think the reward from nailing ThAdmiral-scum is much greater than the small risk of destructor-scum, so

Vote: ThAdmiral

You'd better come up with something better than that if you expect us lynch him and potentially throw away the game.

I'm thinking now that mm has to be scum with destructor.

It's looking increasingly likely.

[ThAdmiral]

Good.

What do others think.

[Korejora]

I think it would be cool if we could get some role flavour, and hear Urza's opinion of the situation.

[Thestatusquo]

Fuck this game.

[destructor]

I think it would be cool if we could get some role flavour, and hear Urza's opinion of the situation.

I was just going to suggest this.

I'm Dom Claude Frollo. My flavour says that while I have my flaws, I am not evil and I have a kind heart. I have a lot of scholarly knowledge and this makes me more privileged than most.


I'm seriously confused as to why anyone is thinking that MM's vote or ThAd makes it more likely that he's

my

scum-buddy as opposed to bussing

his

buddy.

I don't get what Urza's doing.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

You'd better come up with something better than that if you expect us lynch him and potentially throw away the game.

I've already explained why I believe destructor. This means I believe his investigation on ThAdmiral. Then add in the fact that I was highly suspicious of ThAdmiral the entire game, I feel confident about my vote.

[ortolan]

I don't get what Urza's doing.

Agreed, he is still a very good contender for scum regardless of whether you're lying or not. His acting all "frustrated with himself" isn't helping anyone, least of all himself look town.