Mini 692: Boost Mafia (Game Over!)

[Raging Rabbit]

Apart from the fact that I fail to see how anyone can call this a scum ability, if I don't hammer a townie in lylo, then i'm not scum.

Pure BS. If you're scum, using your double vote today could only force a no lynch, at which point you get one NK and we'll know you're scum tomorrow. I need to rethink things before I vote you, Iceman turning town was quite a shocker, but I'm likely to do so.

Getting a bit paranoid about Incog, his choices make sense both as vig and as scum who pulled off an awesome fakeclaim. The way things look, though, I think I'll give him the benefit of the doubt - not willing to stake the game on an Incog lynch, and if he's town boosting him is the obvious choice since it can be the difference between lylo and just lo if we mislynch today.

I'm leaning town on TDC and GC, so prior to my reread I support either a xtoxm or an eldarad lynch.

Boost Incog, boost TDC

.

[Elmo]

Day 3, Vote Count #1 - Lynching

Not voting: Green Crayons, Raging Rabbit, TDC, Incognito, eldarad, Xtoxm.

Boost Count

Incognito (3) <- Xtoxm, Green Crayons, Raging Rabbit
Xtoxm <- Incognito
Eldarad <- Green Crayons
TDC <- Raging Rabbit

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch/boost.

[Xtoxm]

Apart from the fact that I fail to see how anyone can call this a scum ability, if I don't hammer a townie in lylo, then i'm not scum.

Pure BS. If you're scum, using your double vote today could only force a no lynch, at which point you get one NK and we'll know you're scum tomorrow. I need to rethink things before I vote you, Iceman turning town was quite a shocker, but I'm likely to do so.

Getting a bit paranoid about Incog, his choices make sense both as vig and as scum who pulled off an awesome fakeclaim. The way things look, though, I think I'll give him the benefit of the doubt - not willing to stake the game on an Incog lynch, and if he's town boosting him is the obvious choice since it can be the difference between lylo and just lo if we mislynch today.

I'm leaning town on TDC and GC, so prior to my reread I support either a xtoxm or an eldarad lynch.

Boost Incog, boost TDC

.

You refuse to take those goggles off even when you're proven wrong?

[Xtoxm]

Apart from the fact that I fail to see how anyone can call this a scum ability, if I don't hammer a townie in lylo, then i'm not scum.

Pure BS. If you're scum, using your double vote today could only force a no lynch, at which point you get one NK and we'll know you're scum tomorrow. I need to rethink things before I vote you, Iceman turning town was quite a shocker, but I'm likely to do so.

Getting a bit paranoid about Incog, his choices make sense both as vig and as scum who pulled off an awesome fakeclaim. The way things look, though, I think I'll give him the benefit of the doubt - not willing to stake the game on an Incog lynch, and if he's town boosting him is the obvious choice since it can be the difference between lylo and just lo if we mislynch today.

I'm leaning town on TDC and GC, so prior to my reread I support either a xtoxm or an eldarad lynch.

Boost Incog, boost TDC

.

And no, alone "me and my buddy" have 3 votes, we can't force an NL, or lynch, but Incog knows i'm town, and with his help, "me and my buddy" have 4 votes.

[Raging Rabbit]

And no, alone "me and my buddy" have 3 votes, we can't force an NL, or lynch, but Incog knows i'm town, and with his help, "me and my buddy" have 4 votes.

You'd need Incog and your buddy to vote someone, first.

You refuse to take those goggles off even when you're proven wrong?

I already said yesterday that you and Iceman were very scummy independently, first, and seemed connected, second. I was wrong about Iceman, but if the same situation came up again in another game - i.e a player I find scummy fakes a post restriction, then claims cop, and says he had forgotten about his role despite replacing in a day before nighttime - I'd lynch said player without thinking twice. Just not Iceman, perhaps, since he proved a bad enough player to do so as town. Being proved wrong about one particurlar lynch does not mean I need to throw everything I know about the game out the window. There's still the matter of your claim contradicting sthar's to an extent I can't bring myself to believe is excusable by a difference of interpertation.

[Xtoxm]

I in no way contradicted by predecessors claim, so stfu about it and atleast get some proper reasoning before you lose town this game.

[TDC]

boost: Incognito
boost: eldarad

--

Incognito: Why so sure about Xtoxm? I don't get it.

--

Xtoxm: I might be missing something, but if you don't hammer with your double vote it doesn't tell us anything, because if you DID hammer, Incognito would just vig you over night. A town lynch does not immediately end the game at this point.

--

As for mass claim, assuming Incognito gets another shot, we're not quite in LyLo, more Ly/VigLo. Either way, mass claim probably is a good idea.

--

I'm thinking scum = RR + TDC (I seem to recall RR having some pretty strong support towards TDC whenever the two acknowledge one another, but I need to go back and reread)

Why is RR "supporting" me more significant than me "supporting" eld?

[Raging Rabbit]

I in no way contradicted by predecessors claim, so stfu about it and atleast get some proper reasoning before you lose town this game.

We've been over this so many times by now, I doubt playing dumb's gonna work.

[eldarad]

Checking in.

I do not object to a massclaim.
I am worried that Incog is getting a free-pass, and that he could be scum. The bit that worries me most is how he maneuvred himself into a position late Yesterday where "vigging" Huntress would be plausible for him, even though he had previously expressed very good reasons why she could not be scum.

I also note that Incog has been boost-hammered. At least 3 of those people must be townies if Incog is mafia. But for that fact, I would have voted for Incog in this post.

I am going to go back and look at the possibility/plausibility of TDC-scum.

[Xtoxm]

I'm nigh on certain TDC is scum.

I pondered, momemtarily, Incog being scum, but scum having that vig is way too overpowered. He

has

vigged two PR's, and gotten another lynched, so I think scum just want him around more than Volkan. They were both as unlikely a lynch as each other (~0).

[eldarad]

I also considered the idea that the scum fancy their chances with Incog as vig. But given the amount of power people are bigging up our vig as having, why is Incog still alive?

Why NK the "information" role rather than the vig?
I don't expect an answer to that question, but it's weighing on my mind.

[Xtoxm]

Perhaps they thought the information would be more damaging. Perhaps they wanted people to become sus of Incog...Who knows. I don't think that's the important bit. I just can't see Patrick giving scum a vigilante, who even starts off with an extra kill of his own, so he can prove it, in a normal 12 player Mini. The vig, when he proves himself, is pretty much certain to become trusted, and boosted, and I can't see that from a setup balance standpoint.

[Xtoxm]

Plus, if Incog was scum, he doesn't have to call me town. He could have pretended he wasn't getting this read on me. He's pretty much the only thing preventing my mislynch...Actually, that's probably it. The scum want town to think I have killed Incog, cos he's the only one calling me town. Surprised I didn't think of that earlier, actually.

[Incognito]

TDC and anyone else questioning my Xtoxm read: Have you NEVER played with anyone so often that the person could literally post the word "Hi!" and from that moment onward, you'd know if he was town or scum just from that one post? (I'm exaggerating a bit but you get the idea.) There are at least 7 or 8 players on MS (Xtoxm included) that I feel like I've played with often enough that I could read them almost instantaneously. I actually find it kinda funny that Green Crayons claims that sthar8's play is what's sold him on Xtoxm's towniness but with me, it's actually

Xtoxm's

play that's sold me on his towniness. As long as I'm in this game, I will NOT be 1) voting Xtoxm or 2) vigging Xtoxm. So, to the scum, I know you were really, really hoping that Xtoxm would be a viable mislynch or misvig but that's not gonna happen as long as I'm around. kthx.

eldarad: You're seriously claiming that a vig is a more powerful role than an information role?

Further, I can think of plenty of reasons why a scum would keep me around. For example, if either TDC or Raging Rabbit is scum, they could have easily thought they could persuade me into lynching or vigging someone of their choosing since I

had

been so sold on them being town from the moment they joined the Jahudo-scum wagon. If

you're

scum, you could have left me alive to plant this seed of doubt that you're planting now. As you can see this is all WIFOM, so it's probably best if you leave this out of the conversation. If you really think I'm scum, then vote for me or make a case against me. Do you think my play here looks or feels dissimilar from my play in Satin Doll?

[Green Crayons]

If Incog was anything but vig he would be a sk. Any scum group with a godfather and an extra kill is game-breaking. However, I think the probability of Incog being a sk is next to nil - I never really had any suspicion of him and his vig claim really helped cement the town notion towards him that I was forming.

Why is RR "supporting" me more significant than me "supporting" eld?

For starters because I don't see Eld as a scumbag and I see RR with a strong potential for being one. Secondly, because the interaction between RR and yourself has been almost non-existent (from what I can remember, off hand), but when it occurs, it always seems like RR is giving you some sort of support or praise.

The scum want town to think I have killed Incog, cos he's the only one calling me town.

Reading this made me think of mathcam's strategy (as scum) in Minvitational 9:

In any case, the way I implemented this was, at least at the start, to kill the scummmiest player still alive. Later this morphed into maintaining what I would later postulate were scum's motives -- leaving alive only one natural target to be lynched. By the time this "natural target" came around to be me, I hoped to be able to argue that this was scum's likely plan, and to urge people not to fall into their trap.

Not saying this is the case, but by putting yourself in an bad position, then highlighting the poor position you have placed yourself as a mafia tactic to frame you is exactly the strategy ScumCam attempted to utilize in the minvitational. Reading your above quote instantly made me think of Mathcam.

I actually find it kinda funny that Green Crayons claims that sthar8's play is what's sold him on Xtoxm's towniness but with me, it's actually Xtoxm's play that's sold me on his towniness.

That's because I don't have a history with Xtox. I found Sthar's play to be quite town - Xtox's, not so much. However, one thing I'm 99% convinced of is the fact that you're town. Your constant contention that Xtox's bad play is just Xtox being town (which is, I think, as how your defense of Xtox has summed up) is what is keeping me from rethinking my evaluation of sthar.

[Xtoxm]

<3 Incog

Wanna sexorcise?

[TDC]

Have you NEVER played with anyone so often that the person could literally post the word "Hi!" and from that moment onward, you'd know if he was town or scum just from that one post? (I'm exaggerating a bit but you get the idea.)

No. But then, the biggest amount of games with the same person I have is.. two.
If Xtoxm is THAT easy to read, then it shouldn't be too hard to explain where he dropped his "Hi! I'm town!"-tell, so that someone who has never played with him before can understand it. Or is it really just a feeling?

[Raging Rabbit]

For Incog to be scum there has to be another explanation for the second N1 kill, and the only one I can see is that sthar was his partner and got an extra kill due to being boosted. Incog attacked sthar quite strongly early d2, though, I need to see how likely that was to be distancing/bussing. That would still require

both

non-GF scum to get an extra kill when bossted, though which is sorta overpowered.
TDC I'm almost sure is town, just a strong feeling that he's playing the exact solid and kinda quiet town game he played in Cop Central. GC trying to pass me having that read as a scumtell is very weak.

So the three others left are xtoxm (pretty sure he's scum, and won't get vigged tonight), eldarad (leaning scum) and GC (neutral).

I think I'm ready to

vote xtoxm

.

[Xtoxm]

See Incog? I said yesterday...It doesn't matter his alignment...He has to die.

Vote RR

[Raging Rabbit]

It doesn't matter his alignment...He has to die.

Guys, xtoxm is scum. Seriously. What would town ever say this about

anyone

this late in the game?

[Xtoxm]

Why would town ever go against their confirmed town vig?

[Incognito]

Why would town ever go against their confirmed town vig?

Xtoxm, I'm only a vig. Not a cop. I can be wrong just like anyone else can be wrong (I've proven that twice already with my kill choices).

TDC, it's mainly a feeling, though there are a lot of other factors that I'm looking for also that I've seen here (for example his "I don't care if you lynch me" attitude that he's expressed a number of times, his 100+ posts in this game, his double, triple, and quadruple posts, his Golden scumdar [he was right about both icemanE

and

Huntress.]). I think Ripley in the first mini normal I modded very accurately described a player in that game, and I think the description he used to describe that particular player very much applies to Xtoxm as well:

[...]in general such open and unguarded play is much more typical of a keen newbie town who hasn't yet learned the dangers of being unguarded and who s way more interested in scumhunting than in watching their words too closely.

Mind you, Xtoxm obviously isn't a Newbie any longer, but I think the way he plays the game very much matches this description. He pretty much "blurts out" whatever's on his mind at the time without really thinking about the ramifications of what he might be saying. His attitude oftentimes costs him his life in games

(Xtoxm, just how many times

have

you been mislynched anyway?).

An Xtoxm-scum, on the other hand, is very much an IIoA scum. He'll comment on anything and everything except for the game itself and will very rarely express his thoughts on the players. In this game, he's (very concisely as per usual) let us all know who he's suspicious of and who he thinks is town and so far, he's been accurate with his town choices at least (Huntress and icemanE were both town like he thought). Obviously you don't have to take any of my word for this: you can go through his games on your own if you'd like too. And if you're still doubtful about my ability to tell the difference, here's a vote that I made in a past Newbie Game on page 3 of that thread with a completely serious vote on what ended up being an Xtoxm-D1-lynched-scum. From what I've seen, I really don't think his (scum) playstyle has changed all that dramatically from that point to now.

[Xtoxm]

I've been meaning to work that out sometime, actually. I think it's something like 90% of my town games. I'll take a look through tonight.

[Xtoxm]

The numbers i've come up with are rather confusing.

From my counting, lynched 20 times, vigged 7 times, of 44 town games. So 45% lynch rate, or combined 63%.

I've been a confirmable power-role a few times, but not enough to compliment 63%, so the numbers don't agree with my memory.

[Raging Rabbit]

Why would town ever go against their confirmed town vig?

1. Incog isn't confirmed town.
2. This argument is about as good as "the guy the scum NK'd thought I was town!"

Please enlighten me - this late in the game, how can it possibly be a good choice for town to lynch someone they don't think is scum?

his Golden scumdar [he was right about both icemanE and Huntress.]).

Did it occur to you that buddying up and expressing a town read on the guy that screwed up so bad he's about to get lynched regardless might be a plausible scum tactic?