Newbie 694 (over)

[GIEFF]

Amished, I'm about ready to just vote for FL. Are you on board with that? And you, ham?

[hambargarz]

No, I'm not on board with that, not yet anyway.
I really need FL and (more importantly for me) CC to say something.

We are at lylo, I have to be as sure as possible.
There's no deadline so we can afford to wait

[GIEFF]

Vote: fuzzylightning

I have no desire to wait for replacements. Bus or defend, ham; it's up to you.

[CarnCarn]

I'm still around (not dead). Been busy with RL, etc. Limited time to really do much reading, but I think I got the main points that need to be addressed:

Amished's doc claim sounds genuine (I believe it). Especially with no counter, and me being RB'd. That's basically another innocent as far as I know, which is good because we are in LyLo.

Right now, I'm thinking hambargarz/fuzzylightning scum team, with outside possibility of GIEFF/fuzzylightning scum team.

I'm surprised GIEFF has decided to so boldly throw out a vote in LyLo, without really saying why he thinks fuzzy is definately scum (as I have done with my scenarios above). Maybe a wild scum gambit bussing his buddy?

In any case, I'm fine with a fuzzylightning lynch because I'm pretty sure he's gotta be scum for this game to make sense:

Vote: fuzzylightning

[CarnCarn]

Unvote: fuzzylightning

Actually, I just realized that fuzzylightning has not posted yet, so it's possible that Amished is lying about doc claim. What I saw as lack of counterclaim in my quick read could just be fuzzylightning-doc's absence. I would also encourage GIEFF to unvote until fuzzylightning (or replacement) posts, as there is no rush here.

[GIEFF]

unvote

[GIEFF]

CC, I trust Amished's claim, and I trust your claim, as it came when you couldn't be sure there wasn't a real cop if you were scum. That leaves ham and FL.

[CarnCarn]

CC, I trust Amished's claim, ... That leaves ham and FL.

This is definately what I'm leaning towards, too. If fuzzylightning

does

claim doc... well, we see what happens then (I have a few ideas, but I don't want to really discuss them until fuzzylightning claims).

[hambargarz]

CC, I trust Amished's claim, and I trust your claim, as it came when you couldn't be sure there wasn't a real cop if you were scum. That leaves ham and FL.

CC's claim was given when he was close to being lynched. I wouldn't be so trusting of his claim given the context. From a scum perspective he was already going to be lynched and a cop claim would be one of the few things that could save him. If there was another cop who counter claimed CC, then it makes no difference to CC as he was going to be lynched anyway. It actually benefits a scum-CC as it would out the cop for his partner.

---------------

I'm might be going out on a limb here, but a CC/Amished scum pair isn't that far fetched. I can imagine how the discussion between the two happened last night...

• Amished: Hey CC, looks like the town is believe you're cop claim.
  
  CC: Yea, I think I'm more safe. You on the other hand may be under suspicion tomorrow. You should claim Doc, that way we can kill MR, confirming my cop investigation. I'll claim I was roleblocked which will help support you're Doc claim. On top of that I don't have to give a result from last night's investigation, thus leaving the town with less information.
  
  Amished: Brilliant idea, stupid town, they will all fall for it. this is too easy.

------------

[hambargarz]

Actually reading through what I had written, I was thinking, since we are at lylo, CC could have just faked a guilty result on another townie and won the game before the town realised they lynched an innocent.

hmmm, on the other hand, that would have sparked a confrontation between the target and CC, which may compromise CC. But I don't think this is likely. Because of this, I've changed my mind, maybe CC's claim is to be believed

but this doesn't clear Amished.

[GIEFF]

If CC is the real cop, then Amished is the real doc.

[CarnCarn]

If CC is the real cop, then Amished is the real doc.

Not necessarily; waiting on fuzzylightning.

[GIEFF]

You are right, CC. What I should have said was:

"If CC is the real cop, then there is a doc."

I just think that if FL was the doc, he would have claimed by now. He has posted 6 times in other games since Amished's doc claim.


If FL does claim doc, and if you are the real cop, then I think we win (assuming the fake-doc claim is the goon, not the roleblocker).

If FL claims doc, then either he or Amished is scum. However, the fake-claim is likely to be the goon rather than the roleblocker, as fake-claiming is risky. Therefore, ham would be the roleblocker, and if we lynch the roleblocker today (again, assuming you are the real cop), then we win.

After a RB-lynch, you would get to investigate either Amished or fuzzy tonight, and the real doc would be on you, to ensure you live to tell the town your results. I would be killed (as mafia killing the real doc would obviously implicate them as the fake doc, and you would have doc-protection), but your investigation results would mean a win in 3-way lylo.

[hambargarz]

If CC is the real cop, then Amished is the real doc.

Hmmm that's true
So that leaves a GIEFF/FL scumpair
but it doesn't make sense given GIEFF's close lynching of CR.

So the only pairs left that it could be is FL/CC or GIEFF/CC or Amished/CC
With Amished being a real doc.

Hmmm CC. Hmmm, going to re-read for a second to check something
be right back

[GIEFF]

So that leaves a GIEFF/FL scumpair
but it doesn't make sense given GIEFF's close lynching of CR.

I didn't actually lynch him though, did I? Couldn't GIEFF-scum say "I plan on lynching FL" but then decide to lynch Xtoxm anyway? It's not likely, and would be seen as scummy, but the possibility is there, and if you were town, you would not rule it out in this manner, saying "the only pairs that could be left are..."

I think you just don't feel as though you can force a lynch on me, and you don't want your scumbuddy to get lynched, so you are avoiding the possibility of a me/FL scumpair, as if you said you believed it, you would likely have to support a lynch of FL. Every other pair contains a townie you think you can force a mislynch on.

So the only pairs left that it could be is FL/CC or GIEFF/CC or Amished/CC
With Amished being a real doc.

I don't understand. Are you saying that if Amished ist he real doc, these are the possible pairs? Why does one of these pairs have Amished in it, then? And why is CC in all these pairs? CC being the legit cop is what ensures there is actually a doc, and if CC is mafia, then we are no longer 100% sure there is actually a doc.





FL, if you don't have time for an in-depth post, and if you can read this, please just tell us your role.

[hambargarz]

Ok I'm back from reread. Was checking something on CC, but as it turns out was a red herring..

I didn't actually lynch him though, did I? Couldn't GIEFF-scum say "I plan on lynching FL" but then decide to lynch Xtoxm anyway? It's not likely, and would be seen as scummy, but the possibility is there, and if you were town, you would not rule it out in this manner, saying "the only pairs that could be left are..."

I didn't rule out this possibility because you can't rule out any possibilities. I'm just choosing the most likely. This is the main reason why I was asking you questions about what you think about CR being scum. I was trying to get you're position on CR to enforce/reduce this possibility. I'm also taking you're call to lynch FL today into account. I should have been clear, when I mention CR or FL, I really mean CR/FL as in they are interchangeable.

I'm not against an FL lynch, if everyone wants to lynch him, thats fine with me (it ensures that at least 1 townie is on board with it). But I'm hesitant because we are at lylo and you (GIEFF) are a suspect in my books and want him lynched.

I don't understand. Are you saying that if Amished ist he real doc, these are the possible pairs? Why does one of these pairs have Amished in it, then? And why is CC in all these pairs? CC being the legit cop is what ensures there is actually a doc, and if CC is mafia, then we are no longer 100% sure there is actually a doc.

Oops, typo. I had edited the line before and not fixed the last line.
It's supposed to read...

.. only pairs left could be FL/CC or GIEFF/CC with amished being real doc
or Amished/CC (with both claims being fake as per post 958)

The reason why all the pairs have CC in it, because the only other pairs are
FL/GIEFF (which I have already discounted above) and Amished/GIEFF
but this last pair doesn't make sense, because CC would be a real cop and therefore Amished would have to be a real doc.

So you see, CC is looking quite likely from where I'm standing

+1 FOS: CC

This of course will all change if FL comes out with a counter doc claim, but I think this is very unlikely.

[hambargarz]

I'm about to vote CC actually.
But have to wait for FL on the off chance he will counter claim. I would also like the town to check my logic and see if it's correct.

[hambargarz]

Oh I forgot the combination of Amished/FL scum pair
this doesn't make sense either because CC would have to be a real cop which means either Amished or FL would have to be a real doc.

[GIEFF]

I am fine with you voting CC, as it is impossible for Amished/FL to be the scum pair (as it would mean CC is the real cop, which means there IS a doc, which means ONE of Amished or FL has to be town).

If you're scum, there can't be two more scum who pile on, and if CC is scum, then good choice.

[GIEFF]

I'm not against an FL lynch, if everyone wants to lynch him, thats fine with me (it ensures that at least

1 townie

is on board with it). But I'm hesitant because we are at lylo and you (GIEFF) are a suspect in my books and want him lynched.

Don't you mean 2 townies?

[hambargarz]

Don't you mean 2 townies?

Unless I count myself, but that doesn't really help me, I should have said at least 1 other townie on board with it.

I think CC is a better target than FL though.
Amished? your thoughts?

[Amished]

I'm not sure if I like the gravitating away from the lurker (so far). I assume that GIEFF was correct that he's posted elsewhere, so as he's not picked up the prod (which specifically stated that the game was slowing, and everyone should post) I'd like his role, and an explanation before we do anything.

What I'm primarily confused with though, is your actions, ham. Up until ... a couple of hours ago, you were thinking the same way I was about CC's claim, and how it'd still be a heck of a risk to expose yourself. You've even discounted possibilities (Me/FL just looking back recently) due to the fact that you thought that he was the cop. I'm failing to see how voting for somebody you so recently thought was cop, in a LyLo situation is beneficial. I get the impression that you've been rereading some of CC's posts, so if you saw something in his behavior, wouldn't it be better to discuss since we are in lylo, then the town could see for themselves if it holds weight or not?

I don't know if the attempted lynching of FL by GIEFF really discounts them as a scumpair (seems to be your main/(only?) point against it. It could be a case of busing, setting him up for tomorrow's lylo if we do get a scum today, and I fail to protect the right person. Then, if he did bus FL, he'd be in excellent position to pick off the rest of us as he would've been the first to vote him in a lylo.

A lot has happened recently, and I still say that missing 20% of our population is a terrible situation to be in. I want FL (or yet another replacement... FL hasn't contributed that much yet, though it'd be hard to catch up to all almost 1000 posts that we have) back asap so we can judge his reactions and hopefully we'll see where it goes from there.

[hambargarz]

I don't see what's confusing about my actions.

I'll go through the possible combos

Amished/CC

- possible

Amished/FL

- not possible since GIEFF and I are not the doc and CC says he was roleblocked

Amished/GIEFF

- unlikely for the same reasons, will be proven impossible for sure if FL claims VT

CC/GIEFF

- possible

CC/FL

- possible

FL/GIEFF

- possible, but I'm leaning away from it because GIEFF was pushing his lynch, (was GIEFF bussing? maybe, but I don't think it's likely)

So here are the possible pairings
Amished/CC, CC/GIEFF, CC/FL, FL/GIEFF

Looking at it purely statistically, thats a 75% chance CC is scum.
Add on top of this GIEFF's actions against FL (bussing maybe, but risky play given FL's lurking), and GIEFF's actions throughout this game which everyone appears to have agreed as being pro-town. CC is clearly the better choice.

How can you argue with that? I don't know how you could have given that response Amished. It is as if you are turning a blind eye to the facts I have presented against CC (defending CC?). You have only disputed that an FL/GIEFF pair is not "unlikely" (Amished/FL is not possible) which is wierd, because I thought GIEFF is quite low on you're scumlist.

If my logic is wrong somewhere I would like someone to point it out, in case I am tunneling. Unless FL throws things with a counterclaim or someone points out a flaw in my logic, my vote will probably go to CC

BTW: I was reading back on CC's posts to check an inconsistency with his reporting, but as it turned out, there was no inconsistency. My previous argument against CC for his wishy washy posting and fence-sitting behaviour still stand however.

[GIEFF]

If you did not discount the FL/me pairing, then CC, FL, and myself would appear equally often in your possible scum pairings, i.e. in 60% of them.

You should not discount the FL/me pairing. Bussing in 5-player lylo is a valid strategy, and I would not rule it out if I were scum.


Your entire statistical argument for voting CC is based on the fact that you discounted the FL/GIEFF pair, which, as I said, I think is because you don't think you can force a lynch on me, and because you don't want to have to lynch FL.

I don't buy the reasons you have given for discounting the FL/GIEFF pair.

[hambargarz]

But I haven't ruled out the possibility of FL/GIEFF pair

The possible pairs are
Amished/CC, CC/FL, CC/GIEFF and FL/GIEFF
Ignoring my reads on you, That's still 75% chance CC is scum.