Mini 692: Boost Mafia (Game Over!)


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Post Post #1300 (ISO) » Sun Feb 15, 2009 10:54 am

Post by Elmo »

Day 3, Vote Count #4 - Lynching

Green Crayons (3) <- Xtoxm, eldarad, Incognito
Xtoxm <- Raging Rabbit

Not voting: Green Crayons, TDC.

Boost Count

Eldarad (2) <- Green Crayons, TDC
TDC <- Raging Rabbit
Green Crayons <- Incognito

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch/boost. Note that, for simplicity's sake, we'll skip the boosting if there's only three still alive.
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Post Post #1301 (ISO) » Sun Feb 15, 2009 11:53 am

Post by Green Crayons »

Green Crayons wrote:I'm not big on reading meta, not because it isn't useful, but because it requires me reading through a bunch of games when I have neither the time nor inclination to utilize what free time I do have to engage in such a mind numbing process. So, for you metaheads out there:
Xtox's town meta basically boils down to being crappy and his scum meta boils down to him being not as crappy?
I'm going to assume that this is the case, Incog?
"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
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Post Post #1302 (ISO) » Sun Feb 15, 2009 11:58 am

Post by Xtoxm »

Try to get over your own crap joke, dickhead.
Smooth as silk when he's scum, and very much capable of running things from behind the scenes while appearing to be doing minimal effort. - Almost50
Xtoxm is consistently great - Shosin
you were the only wolf i townread at endgame - the worst
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Post Post #1303 (ISO) » Sun Feb 15, 2009 12:04 pm

Post by Incognito »

Green Crayons wrote:
Green Crayons wrote:I'm not big on reading meta, not because it isn't useful, but because it requires me reading through a bunch of games when I have neither the time nor inclination to utilize what free time I do have to engage in such a mind numbing process. So, for you metaheads out there:
Xtox's town meta basically boils down to being crappy and his scum meta boils down to him being not as crappy?
I'm going to assume that this is the case, Incog?
It depends on how you define "crappy". I don't think Xtoxm is a crappy town player at all; I think he's definitely off-kilter, he often doesn't think about how his own posts could be perceived by the rest of the town, but other than that, I think he's actually quite good as town. I've seen so many cases where he gets mislynched for weird not scummy behavior but in his last post, he has the entire scum team called out. Xtoxm-scum is lurky and un-analytical scum. So it would be his
scum play
that would be more accurately described as crappy.
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Post Post #1304 (ISO) » Sun Feb 15, 2009 12:09 pm

Post by Incognito »

GC, did you ever finish your TDC analysis?
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Post Post #1305 (ISO) » Sun Feb 15, 2009 12:19 pm

Post by Elmo »

Xtoxm wrote:Try to get over your own crap joke, dickhead.
Yeah, I've let this go for a while, but I think that's enough. Civil from here on, please.
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Post Post #1306 (ISO) » Mon Feb 16, 2009 1:23 am

Post by Green Crayons »

Xtox wrote:Try to get over your own crap joke, dickhead.
I'm not joking. I find your play to be incredibly self destructive and exceptionally unhelpful to any town. You're not supposed to make it incredibly difficult for fellow townies to not want to lynch you because you reek of anti-town behavior. Maybe you should grow some thick skin (this is the internet, after all), realize I'm not being a douche-bag just for the sake of it and actually improve your play style. Over-emotional explosive posts, insulting the town en masse, insulting other players singularly, begging the town to lynch you with the inference that it's because they're obviously inferior to your intellect and so you just can't stand to play in the game any more... Yeah. Wonderful town play right there.
Incog wrote:GC, did you ever finish your TDC analysis?
No. Since I'm going to get lynched because Xtox hasn't even actually voiced a reason, Eld is interpreting for me how I intended to use a phrase without actually citing any example where I used it supposedly how he thought I intended it to be interpreted, and you're just going to lynch me because I already have a wagon on me - well, let's just say I seem to have lost my will to put much effort into the game.

I still stand by Eld being town - his craptastic reasoning notwithstanding. I just hope you won't vig him and you rethink your stances on the RR/TDC relationships with Jahundo.
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Post Post #1307 (ISO) » Mon Feb 16, 2009 7:10 am

Post by Incognito »

You're only at L-1 in a situation where a second person hasn't even been boosted yet and where we're probably at LyLo and your reasoning for not pushing a TDC-case is because your lynch is inevitable? Why do you think eldarad is town?
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Post Post #1308 (ISO) » Mon Feb 16, 2009 7:56 am

Post by Green Crayons »

Incog wrote:You're only at L-1 in a situation where a second person hasn't even been boosted yet
It's not hard to see a hammer and a second boosted person happening pretty quickly. RR is MIA and TDC can easily quick vote and boost with the excuse that he'll be leaving on vacation pretty soon and doesn't want the day to linger on in his absence.
Incog wrote:and where we're probably at LyLo
Not with your ability.
Incog wrote:and your reasoning for not pushing a TDC-case is because your lynch is inevitable?
It's because I'm too lazy to do work when it'll be
your
responsibility to kill the right person tonight. TDC has been an active lurker until today, his apathetic attitude towards being boosted makes it look like he was trying to not draw attention towards himself (if he's pure vanilla it would be optimal play/beneficial for the town for him to dissuade his boost) which is scummish and he's never undergone any serious scrutiny which makes whatever town vibes people get from him over embellished. I could look up examples, but that's time consuming. It's your job to fix this mis-lynch, so you can review TDC's posts with these criticisms in mind. I've resigned myself to the whims of no reasoning, bad reasoning and really bad reasoning. When you see the error of your mistake, I'm just hoping you'll vig TDC or RR since apparently Xtox is hands-off.

Incog wrote:Why do you think eldarad is town?
Green Crayons wrote:
Incog wrote:Green Crayons, can you explain what it was or has been about eldarad's play that had you list him as neutral to begin with and most recently be practically sold on his towniness?
People who I don't get reads on one way or another get a neutral tag stuck to their names. I didn't get too strong of a vibe one way or another regarding Eld in my extensive read through upon replacement. Since that point in time, I think the suspicions of Eld have been confronted, addressed and suffiicently dismissed by Eld to convince me of his town play.
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Post Post #1309 (ISO) » Mon Feb 16, 2009 9:01 am

Post by eldarad »

GC wrote:It's not hard to see a hammer and a second boosted person happening pretty quickly. RR is MIA and TDC can easily quick vote and boost with the excuse that he'll be leaving on vacation pretty soon and doesn't want the day to linger on in his absence.
Agreed. Longer post coming soon.
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Post Post #1310 (ISO) » Mon Feb 16, 2009 11:26 am

Post by Incognito »

1308, Green Crayons wrote:
Incog wrote:and where we're probably at LyLo
Not with your ability.
Right. But you're arguing that your lynch will undoubtedly be a mislynch and you're also arguing that my second suspect is also a step in the wrong direction but you're doing nothing to convince me or anyone else as to why this is the case. You've pretty much packed it in and keep claiming that TDC is one of the remaining scum but haven't taken steps to demonstrate why this is the case.
1308, Green Crayons wrote:It's because I'm too lazy to do work when it'll be
your
responsibility to kill the right person tonight.
This is so epic fail. Am I the only townie in this game? If you think I'm being misguided with my suspicions and you're actually
of the town
you should feel like it's your obligation to try and correct my thinking to lead me on the right track starting with today. We shouldn't even be
thinking
about the night at this time.
1308, Green Crayons wrote:TDC has been an active lurker until today
How do you define active lurking? I've seen no indication of this.
1308, Green Crayons wrote:his apathetic attitude towards being boosted makes it look like he was trying to not draw attention towards himself (if he's pure vanilla it would be optimal play/beneficial for the town for him to dissuade his boost) which is scummish
When did this happen? If you're talking about the Boost-wagon that formed on him during Day 1, I can't think of any reason for TDC to believe that a boost on him
wouldn't
be productive since we hadn't learned the information that Electra provided to us about how some people will not receive effects from a boost until she presented that information to us on Day 2.
1308, Green Crayons wrote:and he's never undergone any serious scrutiny which makes whatever town vibes people get from him over embellished. I could look up examples, but that's time consuming. It's your job to fix this mis-lynch, so you can review TDC's posts with these criticisms in mind. I've resigned myself to the whims of no reasoning, bad reasoning and really bad reasoning. When you see the error of your mistake, I'm just hoping you'll vig TDC or RR since apparently Xtox is hands-off.
Terrible.

What's so bad about my reasoning in particular? I do hope you realize that my reasoning for placing my vote on you has absolutely nothing to do with your claim. I'm voting for you mainly because of your actions around the Jahudo-scum wagon. Interestingly enough, your reasoning for voting Huntress yesterday included very similar reasoning to mine today, which should mean that you do find such actions around a scum-wagon to be rather telling in their own regard. Why have you now classified my reasoning as bad? Did you classify your reasoning for voting Huntress yesterday as bad as well?


I also noticed that you seemed to have read through Minvitational 9 at some point. I feel like that game looks eerily similar to this game in the sense that like this game a Godfather was lynched on Day 1. If you look at the wagon that formed on that Godfather, you'd notice that the first 6 votes that were placed on him were town and the hammering vote was the scum vote. Is there any reason why that game hasn't in any way, shape, or form shaped your thinking about this particular game and the actions around the GF we had here?

P.S. You're now at L-2. I suppose you can start doing stuff.
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Post Post #1311 (ISO) » Mon Feb 16, 2009 12:22 pm

Post by eldarad »

Incog wrote:And no, I don't support boosting one of the vanillas today -- why take the risk when one of the vanillas could easily be scum who could gain some kind of power when boosted? We're in a LyLo situation where we really don't have a large margin of error to be fooling around with boosts on the vanilla claimants. Your suggestion to do so, eldarad, is extremely scummy.
You have me worried now, because you're doing what you did Yesterday - lining yourself up so that vigging me Tonight seems plausible. It's what you did right before vigging Huntress. And it makes me think that you are hedging your bets in case you see dawn Tomorrow, and then have to justify your actions.

So, let's do this right now. We aren't lynching Green Crayons until I'm done.
Some important things to lay down first.
1) I'm pretty sure you're town, although I am not 100% sold on this point.
2) I'm pretty sure you're positioning yourself to vig me, as I mentioned above. Regardless of your alignment, that is a bad thing. Hence the unvote.
2a) Eldarad lynches take weeks. I see no reason to give you a free pass to avoid all that hassle just because you're a vig... :P
3) Boosting a vanilla - and having no effect - will be useful as it very persuasive evidence that your vig kills are the result of your boost, rather than a permanent ability...like what a scum might have. As TDC said, it
proves
nothing but it will make me feel better. And for all we know, vanillas might have the most powerful boost abilities... (yeah, I know, they probably don't...)

We aren't in lylo since you are a town-aligned vig. Right? So we have a reasonable margin of error. Nobody is being complacent here.
eldarad, post 389 wrote:Skillit's wagon grew very quickly. My assessment was that, even if Skillit is scum it was very, very likely that at least one scum was on his wagon. Either:
1) Skillit was town and scum were on his wagon trying to push a townie mislynch, or
2) Skillit was scum and one of his scumbuddies had jumped on as bussing/distancing/going with the flow.
You asked me whether I still believe this to be true. I do.
Do you believe it to be true? Did you always believe it to be true, or has your opinion on this point changed throughout the game?
Incog wrote:What stuck out to me about this post was the way eldarad addressed the two people he was talking about in this post. "Xtoxm, I don't see why TDC is voting you." The wording just strikes me as odd. He doesn't address TDC directly, i.e. "TDC, I don't understand your vote on Xtoxm.". Instead he addresses Xtoxm almost like eldarad himself is viewing the whole thing as a third person and is attempting to plot two people against one another.
I addressed Xtoxm directly because I was trying to engage with Xtoxm. My post #890 was a direct response to:
Xtoxm, post 887 wrote:If you're gonna just lynch me, i'll not bother reading.

Let me know.
This, and other posts by Xtoxm around that time, had a theme of someone who was resigned to being lynched due to either (a) a 'slip' or (b) a perception that there had been a slip regarding the sthar/Xtoxm claim.
Xtoxm wasn't emotionally invested in the game at this point, so Xtoxmscum would have happily just called it a day and given up...but no more or less so than Xtoxmtown.
I was telling Xtoxm that I didn't agree with TDC's vote and I wasn't going to follow it with my own vote.
I'm surprised that that is what you have an issue with.

What do you think about Raging Rabbit reaching an opinion on Electra's alignment without considering whether her claim was genuine? Does that have the ring of truth?
When you were considering Electra's alignment, did you consider whether her claim was genuine? If so, can you explain your thought process. If not, how did you reach an opinion?
Incog wrote:This plotting of people against one another seems like a recurring theme in eldarad's play this game -- during Day 1 he even went so far as to label me/iLord/Guardian as a scum team despite the fact that we had been at each other's necks the whole day with very serious votes on one another. Looking back on it now, it seems to me like eldarad was trying to keep up the paranoia that three townies had with one another which could have been helpful for an eldarad-scum in future days.
OK, OK. I officially retract my Guardian-iLord-Incog scumteam theory...
How likely does that plan sound to you?
If I knowingly attempt to link three townies together, how much traction would that gain with the three townies concerned? Precisely zero, as all three townies would know it to be false, at least with regards to themselves. As a quick example, think about the level of suspicion you had towards Guardian and iLord before and after I drew the link of the three of you in a scumteam. Were you more or less suspicious of them after I made the suggestion? Or did it have no impact whatsoever?
Incog wrote:So that leaves Green Crayons and eldarad, which I think is the scum team we're dealing with here. eldarad's recent vote only makes me feel even better about this -- his vote strongly looks like a bussing vote to me since it's based on such weak reasoning when he previously supposedly couldn't see GC as anything but town.
In what way is "I don't believe his claim" weak reasoning?
You earlier said that we were in lylo. If you believe that, do you think it is likely that eldaradscum would be bussing at this point? How do you explain eldaradscum's switch from gunning for RR - who you believe is town - to GC - who you believe is my scumbuddy?

Can I only be scum with GC? What are the consequences if GC flips town - am I still more likely than not to be scum?
Incog wrote:Also his whole "at least one of the scums must be boosting Incog" theory seems really ridiculous to even bring up; obviously, eldarad, if you're town you should be thinking that. Like TDC pointed out, the only two people who didn't boost me were a) you and b) me (obviously I can't boost myself). Your need to bring this up just looks like a last minute weak attempt to push the idea that you're town.
I hate it when people assume that I am inept.
Yeah, the fact that there are 2 scum on your boostwagon is very significant - it's crucial for me to be thinking about it, and I need you to be thinking about it too because if we mislynch Today
you
get the second bite of the cherry. So I need you to be looking at your boostwagon for possible scum.
Incog wrote:Outside of those votes I haven't seen much from either of the two that would suggest otherwise anyway -- Raging Rabbit strikes me as very tunnel-visioned at times but town nevertheless
Can you elaborate more on your town read of Raging Rabbit please.
You say that he is tunnel-visioned at times but he still gives you a town read. Would you say RR has been scumhunting? Has his scumhunting been confined to relatively few players in detail, or has he touched on all players as being potential scum during the course of the game?

What do you think about my reaction to Huntress' claim (post 699)? Do you agree with my stated opinion there? If not, do you think my opinion - further elaborated in post 712 following a question from you - is sincerely held?
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Post Post #1312 (ISO) » Mon Feb 16, 2009 4:03 pm

Post by Green Crayons »

Incog wrote:Right. But you're arguing that your lynch will undoubtedly be a mislynch
Obviously.

Incog wrote:and you're also arguing that my second suspect is also a step in the wrong direction but you're doing nothing to convince me or anyone else as to why this is the case.
Green Crayons wrote:
Incog wrote:Why do you think eldarad is town?
Green Crayons wrote:
Incog wrote:Green Crayons, can you explain what it was or has been about eldarad's play that had you list him as neutral to begin with and most recently be practically sold on his towniness?
People who I don't get reads on one way or another get a neutral tag stuck to their names. I didn't get too strong of a vibe one way or another regarding Eld in my extensive read through upon replacement. Since that point in time, I think the suspicions of Eld have been confronted, addressed and suffiicently dismissed by Eld to convince me of his town play.
Not entirely sure what else I'm supposed to do. I haven't seen concrete evidence against why Eld is such a grand choice to make that he hasn't been able to easily dispel.

Incog wrote:You've pretty much packed it in and keep claiming that TDC is one of the remaining scum but haven't taken steps to demonstrate why this is the case.
I disagree:
Green Crayons wrote:I'm thinking scum = RR + TDC (I seem to recall RR having some pretty strong support towards TDC whenever the two acknowledge one another, but I need to go back and reread) but Xtox is still in the running to switch out for one of them (another thing I need to go back and reread).
We have six players. Incog, Xtox, GC, TDC, RR and Eld. Incog is automatically out of the running as a scumbag. If we remove myself - because, naturally, I see myself as town for very obvious reasons - as well as Eld, because I think Eld has done a great job at proving himself as town, I have Xtox, TDC, Eld and RR to choose from as the scum pair. As noted in my above quote, I think RR and TDC have shown links to one another.
Green Crayons wrote:And I think I might be putting a vote on TDC. I need to reread his posts to reassure the scum vibes I'm getting, but since I think the scum partner is either Xtox or RR, I would rather go for the constant other player in the scum pair (assuming there are two left, that is): TDC.
Furthermore, as denoted in the above quote, I note that a RR/Xtox scum pair is exceptionally unlikely because of their interaction with one another. That means that a RR/TDC or a Xtox/TDC pairing are the only likely scenarios in terms of a scum team. Since TDC is the common factor of these two scenarios, he's the obvlynch from my vantage point.
Green Crayons wrote:TDC has been an active lurker until today, his apathetic attitude towards being boosted makes it look like he was trying to not draw attention towards himself (if he's pure vanilla it would be optimal play/beneficial for the town for him to dissuade his boost) which is scummish and he's never undergone any serious scrutiny which makes whatever town vibes people get from him over embellished.
Not to mention I've already explained why I think TDC is scummy in and of himself.

Incog wrote:This is so epic fail. Am I the only townie in this game? If you think I'm being misguided with my suspicions and you're actually of the town you should feel like it's your obligation to try and correct my thinking to lead me on the right track starting with today.
I've already explained my positions. I've restated them above. You're trying to get blood out of a turnip, here.

Incog wrote:We shouldn't even be thinking about the night at this time.
When we're at 1-L we should definitely start thinking about night choices to save this town's ass.

Incog wrote:How do you define active lurking? I've seen no indication of this.
I define lurking as not paying attention at all to the game and coming back to the thread whenever it suits you. It's a more generic term that can be applied generally to any player who isn't being active. I define active lurking as not contributing to the thread but checking in on it, so that they can jump in here and there infrequently to feign some sort of activity when they're trying to stay beneath the radar. From near the end of November to about mid-January is what I'm talking about in terms of TDC's posting frequency - he started out in a rush of posts and then dribbled off into lurker territory until pretty much the beginning of today.

Incog wrote:When did this happen? If you're talking about the Boost-wagon that formed on him during Day 1, I can't think of any reason for TDC to believe that a boost on him wouldn't be productive since we hadn't learned the information that Electra provided to us about how some people will not receive effects from a boost until she presented that information to us on Day 2.
If
TDC is a townie then he would have received a PM similar to this:
Patrick wrote:You are an inhabitant of the town.

You win when all anti-town roles are eliminated.
TDC hasn't indicated that his PM contained any hints as to a boost ability. He would have had no reason to believe that he would have given a boost ability if he was actually a vanilla. In fact, since he claimed vanilla, he should have assumed that he was
vanilla
. Nothing special happens to vanillas. Ever. To assume that maybe his vanilla role would somehow become non-existent with a boost is to assume he wasn't vanilla. Why would he have assumed his role could easily become the antithesis of his role? It doesn't make sense, even with Electra's information not known. The logical assumption with a vanilla role is to assume you're a vanilla role.

Incog wrote:Terrible.
Right. So you're saying that by escaping any sort of heat he hasn't been able to slide by without suspicion, thus making whatever town vibes he has been giving off (which I fail to see) unduly legitimate and an false sense of certainty? By not being openly criticized up until this point, he has been given a free pass under the town's radar. Your quick dismissal of this point is naive.

Incog wrote:What's so bad about my reasoning in particular?
Because this is why you're voting me:
Incognito wrote:
1239, Incognito wrote:What do people think about Green Crayons's post 649?
Upon reading the thread, I didn't like this post at all for pretty much the exact same reasons TDC and Raging Rabbit pointed out. The timing was interesting like TDC mentioned -- it came directly after I switched my vote to Jahudo-GF while Guardian and iLord followed suit with their own Jahudo-votes. It really does look like a last ditch attempt to save the power role scum. The content was interesting as well -- I don't think the length of it was necessarily a bad thing since I know that I often find myself producing fairly lengthy cases as town but really the content and feel is what got me. I didn't see much in that post that was based on gut or "feelings", which I think are things town usually need to determine who's scum. It just looked like a post-by-post dissection that relied almost entirely on logic, which isn't necessarily always a bad thing since you
should
use logic to determine who's scum, but I do think it's bad when it's the sole thing you're using to scum hunt and place a vote.
You're faulting me for contributing to the thread
in my replacement post
. I don't know if you noticed, but I was responding to the previous 25 pages that I had just reread. Your big suspicion is that I was trying to voice my opinion on the previous 25 pages that I just caught up on in a helpful, if relatively condensed (considering the breadth of the source material), manner. Lesson to be learned? Don't try to voice your opinion on the previous game material when you replace /in. Excellent.

Incog wrote:I do hope you realize that my reasoning for placing my vote on you has absolutely nothing to do with your claim.
I do realize this.

Incog wrote:Interestingly enough, your reasoning for voting Huntress yesterday included very similar reasoning to mine today, which should mean that you do find such actions around a scum-wagon to be rather telling in their own regard. Why have you now classified my reasoning as bad? Did you classify your reasoning for voting Huntress yesterday as bad as well?
You do realize that Huntress was a townsperson, right? My reasoning was very obviously bad if it ended up fingering a town player. You're not only defending my bad reasoning (and heaven help me I don't know why you would back failed reasoning), but you're using it again. Trying to prove that if it apply bad reasoning enough times you'll eventually maybe luck out? What a less than sensible way to play the game at the 11th hour.

Incog wrote:I also noticed that you seemed to have read through Minvitational 9 at some point. I feel like that game looks eerily similar to this game in the sense that like this game a Godfather was lynched on Day 1. If you look at the wagon that formed on that Godfather, you'd notice that the first 6 votes that were placed on him were town and the hammering vote was the scum vote. Is there any reason why that game hasn't in any way, shape, or form shaped your thinking about this particular game and the actions around the GF we had here?
I only read the last three or four pages. I wanted to see who was scum and mathcam's explanation caught my attention. Outside of what he described, I actually don't know anything else about that game. Thus, I am ignorant of what implication are you trying to suggest.

Incog wrote:P.S. You're now at L-2. I suppose you can start doing stuff.
Har har. I was doing stuff. I just don't like digging through people's old posts. It's more work than I need to do when my lynch is almost all but sealed and there are other townies with eyes of their own in their heads and I've already told them what to look for.



P.S. Happy?
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Post Post #1313 (ISO) » Mon Feb 16, 2009 4:16 pm

Post by Green Crayons »

Green Crayons wrote:
Incog wrote:What's so bad about my reasoning in particular?
Because this is why you're voting me:
Incognito wrote:
1239, Incognito wrote:What do people think about Green Crayons's post 649?
Upon reading the thread, I didn't like this post at all for pretty much the exact same reasons TDC and Raging Rabbit pointed out. The timing was interesting like TDC mentioned -- it came directly after I switched my vote to Jahudo-GF while Guardian and iLord followed suit with their own Jahudo-votes. It really does look like a last ditch attempt to save the power role scum. The content was interesting as well -- I don't think the length of it was necessarily a bad thing since I know that I often find myself producing fairly lengthy cases as town but really the content and feel is what got me. I didn't see much in that post that was based on gut or "feelings", which I think are things town usually need to determine who's scum. It just looked like a post-by-post dissection that relied almost entirely on logic, which isn't necessarily always a bad thing since you
should
use logic to determine who's scum, but I do think it's bad when it's the sole thing you're using to scum hunt and place a vote.
You're faulting me for contributing to the thread in my replacement post. I don't know if you noticed, but I was responding to the previous 25 pages that I had just reread. Your big suspicion is that I was trying to voice my opinion on the previous 25 pages that I just caught up on in a helpful, if relatively condensed (considering the breadth of the source material), manner. Lesson to be learned? Don't try to voice your opinion on the previous game material when you replace /in. Excellent.
I actually misstated the above - I had it typed out before I went back to check if it actually was my replacement post, but got side-tracked and forgot about checking it. It isn't my replacement post (found here), but the reason why I was thinking it was is because it was an extension of my replacement post: it was explaining, along with 583, why I came up with my "leaning scum" list from my "true" replacement post. My memory was spotty (it wasn't the actual replacement post) but it's a post that was an extension of my initial replacement post explaining why I thought the things I did (thus why I was thinking it was my replacement post). I was focusing on Huntress and Jahundo because I had already had them listed as leaning scum (also with RR, I might add) from my initial post.
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Post Post #1314 (ISO) » Mon Feb 16, 2009 4:33 pm

Post by TDC »

Green Crayons wrote:TDC can easily quick vote and boost with the excuse that he'll be leaving on vacation pretty soon and doesn't want the day to linger on in his absence.
No, I couldn't. There was one boost vote missing.
It's because I'm too lazy to do work when it'll be your responsibility to kill the right person tonight.
If you're town, it's your responsibility just as much.
TDC has been an active lurker until today
How about you point out examples of where I was supposedly merely posting for the sake of posting without adding content?
his apathetic attitude towards being boosted makes it look like he was trying to not draw attention towards himself (if he's pure vanilla it would be optimal play/beneficial for the town for him to dissuade his boost) which is scummish and he's never undergone any serious scrutiny which makes whatever town vibes people get from him over embellished.
Same request as for Xtoxm (who never actually followed up on this): Show me one instant where I was actually in "danger" of being boosted.
From near the end of November to about mid-January is what I'm talking about in terms of TDC's posting frequency - he started out in a rush of posts and then dribbled off into lurker territory until pretty much the beginning of today.
I'm not the most frequent of posters, yes. Now show the "active" part.
Why would he have assumed his role could easily become the antithesis of his role? It doesn't make sense, even with Electra's information not known. The logical assumption with a vanilla role is to assume you're a vanilla role.
Which is exactly what I did. I figured I
might
get a bulletproof vest or somesuch, but in general terms, I figured boosting a power role was likely a better idea than boosting me.
Now again, show me where I should've jumped in and said "Don't boost me! I'm vanilla!"
GC, underlined for emphasis wrote:So you're saying that by escaping any sort of heat he hasn't been able to slide by without suspicion, thus making whatever town vibes he has been giving off (
which I fail to see
) unduly legitimate and an false sense of certainty?
Oh, really?
GC, earlier on wrote:--Super-Town--
Electra

--Strong Town--
sthar
TDC
So what did you see back then?

--

I can't really see an RR-Xtoxm pair (and I don't understand why eld thought this was likely, or even most likely). So that either means GC is scum or I'm wrong on eld. I'm willing to take that risk. GC's just squirming now.

If he is indeed scum, I'm not sure about his scum partner.
Unlike Incog he's defended Xtoxm without ever supplying any sort of reason, which implies Xtoxm (whose claim is still shady, but has the meta argument going for him).
I can see where Incognito comes from with eldarad bussing GC.. but I don't see him changing his mind about GC in light of GC's claim as much of a problem.
I don't remember RR interacting with GC, much less than with me, anyway. He's not done anything particularly scummy, the push on sthar at the beginning was a bit odd, but other than that..

Incog's not going to vig Xtoxm - I'd have a slight preference for him to vig RR over eld. That said, if GC is scum, Incog's vig is not make or break anyway.

If GC's town and we exclude the RR-Xtoxm scum team, eld would actually need to be scum, so in this case I'd agree with him being vigged.
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Post Post #1315 (ISO) » Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:02 pm

Post by Incognito »

I used a smaller sized text to make this less long lol. I should have thought of this earlier when I was dueling it out with springlullaby ahha.
eldarad wrote:And it makes me think that you are hedging your bets in case you see dawn Tomorrow, and then have to justify your actions.
eldarad wrote:1) I'm pretty sure you're town, although I am not 100% sold on this point.
You're pretty sure I'm town but yet you still place these two points side by side with one another? What do you mean by "hedging your bets" then?

eldarad wrote:2) I'm pretty sure you're positioning yourself to vig me, as I mentioned above. Regardless of your alignment, that is a bad thing. Hence the unvote.
Regardless of my alignment this a bad thing? If you're actually town and I'm scum, wouldn't it be a
good
thing for me to vig you? Why throw in the "regardless of your alignment" clause?

eldarad wrote:2a) Eldarad lynches take weeks. I see no reason to give you a free pass to avoid all that hassle just because you're a vig... :P
Interesting. When you were town in Satin Doll Showdown, I remember you being extremely self-sacrificing. Heck, it won us the game. Why the change here?

eldarad wrote:3) Boosting a vanilla - and having no effect - will be useful as it very persuasive evidence that your vig kills are the result of your boost, rather than a permanent ability...like what a scum might have. As TDC said, it
proves
nothing but it will make me feel better. And for all we know, vanillas might have the most powerful boost abilities... (yeah, I know, they probably don't...)

We aren't in lylo since you are a town-aligned vig. Right? So we have a reasonable margin of error. Nobody is being complacent here.
Right but what's to stop me from believing that if we lynch incorrectly today, the real scums either have some kind of roleblocker that might be able to stop me from shooting tonight or that they might be able to acquire some kind of roleblocking or un-nightkill ability when boosted? I find it odd how you seem to not even consider this.

eldarad wrote:
eldarad, post 389 wrote:Skillit's wagon grew very quickly. My assessment was that, even if Skillit is scum it was very, very likely that at least one scum was on his wagon. Either:
1) Skillit was town and scum were on his wagon trying to push a townie mislynch, or
2) Skillit was scum and one of his scumbuddies had jumped on as bussing/distancing/going with the flow.
You asked me whether I still believe this to be true. I do.
Do you believe it to be true? Did you always believe it to be true, or has your opinion on this point changed throughout the game?
Early on I remember thinking that the wagon could have been somewhat telling, and I remember asking people to justify their own votes since I felt like the wagon moved from a simple random wagon to a more serious wagon but since that point, I've changed my stance on this. I don't think it's as telling as I initially thought it to be because of the boost mechanic that we have in this game. If Skillit/GC is scum, then any potential scum buddies who may have jumped on his wagon would have realized that he couldn't seriously be lynched until two separate boosts were reached. Therefore it probably wouldn't cause much harm to ride the wagon for a bit and slowly slide off of it when the Skillit-hate died down. If Skillit/GC is town, then the scum would have realized that the town would still have to boost two separate people so the chances could have been quite high at that point for the wagon to eventually dissipate and not lead to a mislynch like they thought it would.

Fair enough to the Xtoxm post that I had an issue with.
eldarad wrote:What do you think about Raging Rabbit reaching an opinion on Electra's alignment without considering whether her claim was genuine? Does that have the ring of truth?
I personally can see where Raging Rabbit is coming from. I, too, didn't really consider whether or not her claim was genuine when trying to determine what her alignment was. If you remember from very early on, I mentioned that I was choosing to reserve my judgment about Electra until I saw more content coming from her. I agreed with the "leap of faith" point that you made early on with respect to her but a large part of the reason why I eventually found her to be town was because of her additional contributions to the game and not because I thought her claim seemed genuine.

Also keep in mind that Electra claimed to be a Vanilla who gained something when boosted. Since I was/am a power role, I had absolutely no clue whether Vanillas could have such a thing. So yeah, my read of her was based largely on her actions rather than determining the genuineness of her claim since I didn't have enough role-based information to do so. I could imagine Raging Rabbit feeling somewhat similarly
especially
if he's actually a vanilla like he claims to be. It's pretty apparent now that Electra
thought
she was a Vanilla but was sorely mistaken. I could certainly see a Raging Rabbit-Vanilla Town thinking "well, my role PM mentions nothing about something happening to me when boosted, so why does hers? I'll judge the rest of her actions to determine whether or not I believe her".

eldarad wrote:As a quick example, think about the level of suspicion you had towards Guardian and iLord before and after I drew the link of the three of you in a scumteam. Were you more or less suspicious of them after I made the suggestion? Or did it have no impact whatsoever?
More suspicious. I became convinced that maybe you were scum with one of them (namely springlullaby/Guardian since you refused to vote for her even though you kept saying that her anger looked fake and chose to vote Crazy instead) and that you were trying to link us so that you could push for a future mislynch on me if he flipped town. So yeah.

eldarad wrote:In what way is "I don't believe his claim" weak reasoning?
You earlier said that we were in lylo. If you believe that, do you think it is likely that eldaradscum would be bussing at this point? How do you explain eldaradscum's switch from gunning for RR - who you believe is town - to GC - who you believe is my scumbuddy?
"Shit. The town's not buying GC's fake-claim. Time to bus him!"

I'm actually curious as to why your vote on him is so dependent on his claim. If he's scum, did you not consider the fact that maybe he and his scum buddy spent last night discussing possible fakeclaims in a potential LyLo situation? Do you think GC just messed up that fake-claim really badly here today? See, I'm actually thinking that if you're scum with GC, you guys didn't really discuss much about fake-claims last night so that when he claimed to be a "psychic", you almost knee-jerkedly responded with a vote.

eldarad wrote:Can I only be scum with GC? What are the consequences if GC flips town - am I still more likely than not to be scum?
You can be scum independently of him, sure.
eldarad wrote:Can you elaborate more on your town read of Raging Rabbit please.
You say that he is tunnel-visioned at times but he still gives you a town read. Would you say RR has been scumhunting? Has his scumhunting been confined to relatively few players in detail, or has he touched on all players as being potential scum during the course of the game?
I covered this a bit previously but a large part of my read of him is derived from his swing vote on a Jahudo-scum GF wagon, and his approach to the game at the start of Day 2 after seeing two dead bodies after Night 1 ended.

Yes, I think he's been scum-hunting. Yes, I think he's touched on all players being potential scum during the course of the game except for maybe TDC, and... I can't really remember his thoughts about Skillit. Admittedly, I'll need to reread those.

eldarad wrote:What do you think about my reaction to Huntress' claim (post 699)? Do you agree with my stated opinion there? If not, do you think my opinion - further elaborated in post 712 following a question from you - is sincerely held?
I remember not liking it very much since I couldn't see what you were getting at and thinking that you were using that as an excuse to lay down the hammer of your potential scum buddy's wagon. Your response in 712 was pretty solid, sure.


No response to GC at this time. Too tired/out of time.
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patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
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Post Post #1316 (ISO) » Thu Feb 19, 2009 3:52 am

Post by Incognito »

Bump?
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
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Post Post #1317 (ISO) » Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:48 am

Post by TDC »

*shrug* Everyone disappeared?

unboost, boost: GC
vote: GC


Definitely no access until Sunday.
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Post Post #1318 (ISO) » Thu Feb 19, 2009 4:50 pm

Post by Elmo »

Day 3, Vote Count #5 - Lynching

Green Crayons (3) <- Xtoxm, Incognito, TDC
Xtoxm <- Raging Rabbit

Not voting: Green Crayons, eldarad.

Boost Count

Green Crayons (2) <- Incognito, TDC
Eldarad <- Green Crayons
TDC <- Raging Rabbit

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch/boost. Raging Rabbit is V/LA; Xtoxm has been prodded.
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Post Post #1319 (ISO) » Fri Feb 20, 2009 1:53 am

Post by Xtoxm »

Response.
Smooth as silk when he's scum, and very much capable of running things from behind the scenes while appearing to be doing minimal effort. - Almost50
Xtoxm is consistently great - Shosin
you were the only wolf i townread at endgame - the worst
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Post Post #1320 (ISO) » Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:10 pm

Post by eldarad »

Part 1 of 2...
Incog wrote:Interesting. When you were town in Satin Doll Showdown, I remember you being extremely self-sacrificing. Heck, it won us the game. Why the change here?
TDC wrote:If GC's town and we exclude the RR-Xtoxm scum team, eld would actually need to be scum, so in this case I'd agree with him being vigged.
A different Day, a different game, I would totally take those odds. In this case though, I'm not prepared to take the risk because there's no backup plan if GC is town - I don't think GC is town, but my scumdar so far has been appalling - as we will lose before dawn.
Also, Incog, Satin Doll was something of an exception...I've never had a townie fake-claim SuperSaint the Day before lylo before. In that specific circumstance it made sense to sacrifice myself that Day in order to guarantee catching scum at lylo.
Also, read any and all of the games where I have been lynched.
Incog wrote:You're pretty sure I'm town but yet you still place these two points side by side with one another?
Yeah. That's exactly what I did, and exactly what I meant.
This is the second complete U-turn you've made in order to create a justification for who you are planning to kill Tonight. I think your are far more likely than not to be town, but it worries me.
I also want to nail you down on what your opinions are.
Incog wrote:Regardless of my alignment this a bad thing? If you're actually town and I'm scum, wouldn't it be a good thing for me to vig you? Why throw in the "regardless of your alignment" clause?
Funny. I was talking about from the town's point of view.
Incog wrote:Right but what's to stop me from believing that if we lynch incorrectly today, the real scums either have some kind of roleblocker that might be able to stop me from shooting tonight or that they might be able to acquire some kind of roleblocking or un-nightkill ability when boosted? I find it odd how you seem to not even consider this.
I considered it and discarded it as unlikely.
If scum have a one-shot ability I would expect them to use it fairly early on the "use it or lose it" principal. They could, for example, have used it on Huntress - they may already have - or on our vig. Certainly I would expect the scum to target a boosted townie and I have seen no indication of a boosted townie being denied the effects of the boost.

I agree with the general sentiment that we should be trying to lynch scum rather than rely on your vig-kill, but I also see that you are looking to vig me Tonight, and I see no reason to treat that any differently than if you were looking to lynch me, especially since such an action could result in us losing the game...
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Post Post #1321 (ISO) » Sat Feb 21, 2009 1:07 am

Post by Green Crayons »

I've been prodded, but I've said pretty much everything I can at this point.

Recap:
Don't lynch me, I'm town.
The reasons to lynch me are: none stated (Xtox), because a post that was an extension of my replacing in summary of review was long-winded and
logical
instead of motivated from the gut (Incog), because I didn't want to quote my role PM (eld) and because he's a scumbag and is piggybacking off of everyone else's vote (TDC).
All of these reasons are
bad
. But I'm speaking to a brick wall, here.
Don't vig Eld, he's town.
I've stated why I think that he's town several times now. There's no legitimate reason to think he isn't town - every suspicion lobbed towards him has been met, explained and dismissed in a very precise and conclusive manner. Suspicion of Eld at this point is baseless and short-sighted.


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Post Post #1322 (ISO) » Sun Feb 22, 2009 4:53 am

Post by eldarad »

Incog wrote:Early on I remember thinking that the wagon could have been somewhat telling, and I remember asking people to justify their own votes since I felt like the wagon moved from a simple random wagon to a more serious wagon but since that point, I've changed my stance on this. I don't think it's as telling as I initially thought it to be because of the boost mechanic that we have in this game. If Skillit/GC is scum, then any potential scum buddies who may have jumped on his wagon would have realized that he couldn't seriously be lynched until two separate boosts were reached. Therefore it probably wouldn't cause much harm to ride the wagon for a bit and slowly slide off of it when the Skillit-hate died down. If Skillit/GC is town, then the scum would have realized that the town would still have to boost two separate people so the chances could have been quite high at that point for the wagon to eventually dissipate and not lead to a mislynch like they thought it would.
Ah. So actually you agree with me (although for different reasons) that GC-scum is mutually exclusive of RR-scum, since if Skillit/GC is scum you would expect one one of his buddies to be on the wagon - and neither Jahudo or RR were.
So do you think that - in the event of GC-town - the scum avoided the Skillit wagon because there was no prospect of a mislynch?
Incog wrote:Also keep in mind that Electra claimed to be a Vanilla who gained something when boosted. Since I was/am a power role, I had absolutely no clue whether Vanillas could have such a thing. So yeah, my read of her was based largely on her actions rather than determining the genuineness of her claim since I didn't have enough role-based information to do so. I could imagine Raging Rabbit feeling somewhat similarly especially if he's actually a vanilla like he claims to be. It's pretty apparent now that Electra thought she was a Vanilla but was sorely mistaken. I could certainly see a Raging Rabbit-Vanilla Town thinking "well, my role PM mentions nothing about something happening to me when boosted, so why does hers? I'll judge the rest of her actions to determine whether or not I believe her".
Right. And do you also see how - given that I had a vanilla role PM and my role gave no indication of being boostable -
Electra, post 10 wrote:I don't have a role, so I'm vanilla, however my role PM says that if I'm boosted, I'll gain information about the town (reworded, of course).
this would have required the scum to take a leap of faith about the existence or otherwise of boostable vanilla townies, or whatever.
Incog wrote:More suspicious. I became convinced that maybe you were scum with one of them (namely springlullaby/Guardian since you refused to vote for her even though you kept saying that her anger looked fake and chose to vote Crazy instead) and that you were trying to link us so that you could push for a future mislynch on me if he flipped town. So yeah.
OK, so...would you say that your reasoning - that I made the iLord-Guardian-Incog link in order to make the three of you suspicious of each other - holds water given that it made you more suspicious of me? How does that theory fit in with the fact that the scum killed iLord that Night?
Incog wrote:"Shit. The town's not buying GC's fake-claim. Time to bus him!"
My attitude towards GC's claim is not conditional on other people's attitudes to it.
Incog wrote:I'm actually curious as to why your vote on him is so dependent on his claim. If he's scum, did you not consider the fact that maybe he and his scum buddy spent last night discussing possible fakeclaims in a potential LyLo situation? Do you think GC just messed up that fake-claim really badly here today?
I don't think GC's claim is consistent with Skillit's attitude towards Electra's claim. I also have a problem with the level of detail GC claims to have received about his role, particuarly when contrasted with the level of vagueness in GC's initial claim in post 1253.
I guess the far more relevant question is: "Do YOU believe GC's claim?"
How does your assessment of GC's claim impact on your assessment of his alignment?
Incog wrote:See, I'm actually thinking that if you're scum with GC, you guys didn't really discuss much about fake-claims last night so that when he claimed to be a "psychic", you almost knee-jerkedly responded with a vote.
The only answer I have to that is to point to my response to GC's claim and note that it is not a knee jerk reaction.
Incog wrote:Yes, I think he's been scum-hunting. Yes, I think he's touched on all players being potential scum during the course of the game except for maybe TDC, and... I can't really remember his thoughts about Skillit. Admittedly, I'll need to reread those.
Wow, so can you think of a reason why RR might wish to avoid antagonising two of the five remaining players in the game?
Actually, he hasn't gone after you for a while either...so what you're actually saying is that he's only really attacked me and Xtoxm, at least in the recent past. Are you still happy with your town-read of RR? Does that town-read hold true if GC flips town?
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Post Post #1323 (ISO) » Sun Feb 22, 2009 6:19 am

Post by Raging Rabbit »

I'm back, will read this epic discussion when I'll have the time.
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Post Post #1324 (ISO) » Tue Feb 24, 2009 4:06 am

Post by Xtoxm »

What are we still waiting for? I thought we had decided on a GC lynch.

Incog, i'd rather have TDC vigged than Eld.
Smooth as silk when he's scum, and very much capable of running things from behind the scenes while appearing to be doing minimal effort. - Almost50
Xtoxm is consistently great - Shosin
you were the only wolf i townread at endgame - the worst

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