726 - Mind Screw Gaiden, Game Over

[Tarhalindur]

Actually, do we still have mods?

If no, we may have bigger problems on our hands - no point wasting more time here if we're mod-abandoned. I'll poke MM in the morning.

In other news: I was mulling over the 2-scumgroup scenario recently, and I've been missing something bloody obvious. I want veerus to answer this question, NOW: veerus, do you or do you not think that there is more than one scumgroup in the game? If undecided, tell which possibility (1 Mafia or 2) you consider more likely.

[veerus]

I'm not sure what to think. Nat's comment and FL's subsequent reaction to it makes me think that there is another faction present. Whether it's another mafia or a cult, I do not know. What do you think about that scenario, Tar?

[Natirasha]

Sorry, my dad has a tumor or something and has been at the hospital all weekend. I'll do a massprod and vote count now.

[Natirasha]

"Grass Grows, Birds Fly, Sun Shines, and brother, I hurt people."

[quote="The Fifteenth Vote Count(aka the "Freakin' Force-a-Nature" Vote Count"]Vote Count
Illumina():
Tarhalindur(1): veerus
Populartajo():
Isacc():
Natirasha(1): Illumina
MafiaSSK():
veerus():
UnofficialRulerofEveryone():
GMan(3): Isaac, UnofficialRulerofEveryone, MafiaSSK


FoS Count
Illumina():
Tarhalindur():
Populartajo():
Isacc():
Natirasha():
MafiaSSK():
veerus():[/quote]

[MafiaSSK]

Keeping my vote. Nat/Tar lynch tomorrow. I'm curious to see what happens when we lynch Gman.

[populartajo]

Prodded. When is deadline?
SSK, really? G-man is not a player. Its a name of a player. Its like lynching Mao. It doesnt make sense.
Im willing to go Tar/Nat even though I havent read as much as I like. Will try to do it before deadline.
Also I think we have only 1 mafia group and a number of neutrals. Thats what the three number distributions showed us at the beginninf of the day, right?

[UnofficialRulerOfEveryone]

I'm glad to lynch Tar/Nat...

Does this game still exist?

[Tarhalindur]

Keeping my vote. Nat/Tar lynch tomorrow. I'm curious to see what happens when we lynch Gman.

So you want to no-lynch? Because that's what would happen in any of the original Mind Screw games if you tried to lynch a role name...

Actually, I need to PBPA you. If this is single-scum, you're one of 2 good candidates for being Mafia (in multi-scum you're likely the last scum of forbiddanlight's faction). I still haven't forgotten your little "we should lynch Tar because he *might* be Mafia with a possible bonus kill" D1.

I'm not sure what to think. Nat's comment and FL's subsequent reaction to it makes me think that there is another faction present. Whether it's another mafia or a cult, I do not know. What do you think about that scenario, Tar?

Let me be more blunt here.

1) Do you think that there is a surviving scum faction with three members in it?
2) Do you think that I am a member of that faction? If so, given that your case relies on me being scum with forbiddanlight, how do you propose that forbiddanlight's group still has three members?

Think carefully about your answers.

[MafiaSSK]

Keeping my vote. Nat/Tar lynch tomorrow. I'm curious to see what happens when we lynch Gman.

So you want to no-lynch? Because that's what would happen in any of the original Mind Screw games if you tried to lynch a role name...

And this is what I wanted to see. Thank you for saying what would
happen. Now then back to Nat/Tar lynch.

Unvote, vote Nat

[UnofficialRulerOfEveryone]

So, we are going for the mod-lynch? Whatever...

Unvote ; Vote: Nati

[Isacc]

Yeah, I guess the G-man thing won't work, esp with Tar's confirmation that it would result in a no-lynch in his games. That said,

Unvote

.

I'm in support of the mod-lynch, but I can't help but feel against the lynchee being Tar. Maybe I am unaware of his meta, but I didn't see him as being heavily anti-town thus far...

I am gonna try doing a reread to see if there are better leads. More later.

[veerus]

Let me be more blunt here.

1) Do you think that there is a surviving scum faction with three members in it?
2) Do you think that I am a member of that faction? If so, given that your case relies on me being scum with forbiddanlight, how do you propose that forbiddanlight's group still has three members?

Think carefully about your answers.

1. I don't know as there isn't enough information. It could be a cult or another scum faction or Nat just fucking with us.
2. No, I think you're a member of FL's faction which lost 2 players so far though arguably Nat is back in as Kinetic's role, but that what we'll find out with today's lynch.

And on that note..

unvote; vote: Natirasha

I would like to see you hammer, Tar.

[Isacc]

Veerus...I'm pretty sure you just made the hammer vote...

Can't anyone use basic math?

[veerus]

By my count, I'm only the 4th vote on him putting him at L-1

[Illumina]

That's correct, Nat is at L-1. I'm going to

Unvote: Nat

so that we can have veerus hammer.

veerus: you think Tar is scum with FL and Kinetic? I've said this before, but that's a little hard to believe. You're saying he bussed both of his buddies that early in the game? Given this, I think you're just desperate to kill off the scum detector that's been a thorn in your side.

[Tarhalindur]

Let me be more blunt here.

1) Do you think that there is a surviving scum faction with three members in it?
2) Do you think that I am a member of that faction? If so, given that your case relies on me being scum with forbiddanlight, how do you propose that forbiddanlight's group still has three members?

Think carefully about your answers.

1. I don't know as there isn't enough information. It could be a cult or another scum faction or Nat just fucking with us.
2. No, I think you're a member of FL's faction which lost 2 players so far though arguably Nat is back in as Kinetic's role, but that what we'll find out with today's lynch.

And on that note..

unvote; vote: Natirasha

I would like to see you hammer, Tar.

GOT YOU.

There was a reason why I advised you to think carefully about your answer, you know.

You've been missing a very big problem with your case. Given that the original count was 4-2-3, that means that either there are 3 anti-town neutrals or there was a 3-man scum faction at the beginning of D2.'

Let's assume, as you have, that the second scumgroup is a faction. This means that either hp [leaves] was a member of the second faction (in which case Kinetic wasn't actually dead on D2, which I doubt D2) and it shouldn't even matter, because either Nat became Kinetic or Kinetic - who, as a Cylon, has a fairly good chance of being metalviggable), or there is a surviving 3-man anti-town faction in the game. If there is a three man scumgroup in the game, then we NEED to lynch from the unrevealed group today (in faction-LYLO, the smaller scumgroup counts as town).

THAT was the bloody obvious realization that prompted this line of reasoning.

Let's put it this way - I'm damn sure that either one of fl's group (which should be smaller) is Nat or Kinetic OR that fl's group has only 1 scum. Even if fl's group has 2 survivors, we should be able to take out one of them today (we lynch Nat, I take a potshot at Kinetic). Either way, they are NOT the main threat if we have a scum faction with three surviving scum.

Here's the kicker, though - I don't actually think this exonerates me at all. I'm fairly sure there ISN'T a second scum faction (mainly because Vi claimed Serial Killer-miller and came up town, and if we were counting factions he should have shown up as a seperate faction in the Count of Monte Cristo). I suspect that we're dealing with 1-2 Mafia (depending on Nat) and 2 neutrals from separate factions. Setup theory is as follows:

- Count of Monte Cristo showed town-scum-neutral
- MafiaSSK is Mafia (given his attack on me for "we can't afford to possibly let the scum have an extra kill" D1 and pushing the bad GMan lynch today); either he is last scum or Nat was recruited to Mafia (or, I suppose, Kinetic could have the Lain mechanic...). He's one of only two players in the game whose play now is consistent with Mafia alignment, and the other (veerus) has recently convinced me that he is not Mafia (considering his attack is based on me being Mafia - Selective Scumhunting says he's likely not Mafia).
- Isacc is G-Man and Serial Killer, based mainly on his attack on me D2 (centering around me being a specific character, and a character I suspect is neutral), coupled with what I suspect is a missing kill D2 and my Isacc roleblock D2.
- hp [leaves] was a Cult Recruiter and recruited veerus D1 (note that my metalvig replaces my roleblock, rather than supplement it).

(Note: Last two may be flipped, but I doubt it.)

How this would explain the Count of Monte Cristo result:
4 town: Tarhalindur, Illumina, tajo, UROE (UROE is the biggest stretch here given malthusis's inactivity, but he's reading town right now)
2 Mafia: forbiddanlight, MafiaSSK (Nat resurrected at end of day)
3 Neutral: Vi (Miller), Isacc (GMan-SK), veerus (Cult Recruit)

I would prefer that Isacc hammer today. I will hammer if necessary (read: majority wants it - current count is 3 for, 4 against, 1 unknown). My roleblock target today should be fairly obvious.

Vote: Natirasha

[Illumina]

I'm okay with having Isacc hammer.

[Isacc]

Fourth vote is lynch isn't it? There are only seven of us...

Unless Nat counts towards the lynch...but I didn't think that was the case, as he has no vote.

Also, I'm starting to agree that Tar seems to be pretty inconsistent. He wants me to lynch now? Didn't he want to kill Veerus a few posts ago? Seems kinda flip-floppy to me. Which reminds me...

I think we are forgetting something:

Tar lynch should answer some questions, methinks. Can't say much more than that though.

This + Tar pushing for so many different people dying is starting to make me favor the Tar hammer.

That is, if we hadn't already reached the hammer, which I think we did.

[Isacc]

- Isacc is G-Man and Serial Killer,

based mainly on his attack on me D2 (centering around me being a specific character, and a character I suspect is neutral),

coupled with what I suspect is a missing kill D2 and my Isacc roleblock D2.

If I remember correctly, when I made that attack, you said it was reasonable (or something to that extent). Now, you find me suspicious for it?

[Natirasha]

"Look at this. Just caved in your skull, bats still dry. No clumps of hair--nothin'.

I'd say you have 3 days to deadline.

And nows probably not the greatest time to say this, but I just realized I'm a dumbass. You know that post with the magical numbers? It was supposed to be 4-2-2. Sorry for this inconvenience.

[quote="The Sixteenth Vote Count(aka the "The Shamwow's Vince is secretly the Scout!" Vote Count"]Vote Count
Illumina():
Tarhalindur(0):
Populartajo():
Isacc():
Natirasha(4): MafiaSSK, UnofficialRulerofEveryone, veerus, Tarhalindur
MafiaSSK():
veerus():
UnofficialRulerofEveryone():
GMan(0):

FoS Count
Illumina():
Tarhalindur():
Populartajo():
Isacc():
Natirasha():
MafiaSSK():
veerus():[/quote]

[Illumina]

Isacc: the problem with wanting to kill Tar because Nat said it might be a good idea is that he could be mafia with perfect knowledge of the game. He did the same as town before, and he may have taken over Kinetic's spot. That's why we're lynching him today.

I still favor either veerus or Isacc hammer today. Tar has shifted around a lot, but he's also caught both scum, if the 4-2-2 is to be believed. Let's make a choice before deadline, though, people.

[veerus]

I'm confused.. 4-2-2 at that stage would've made no sense since we had 9 players. I think this is mod WIFOM in an attempt to cover his ass since he is now part of the mafia.

[Tarhalindur]

<snip>

I'd say you have 3 days to deadline.

And nows probably not the greatest time to say this, but I just realized I'm a dumbass. You know that post with the magical numbers? It was supposed to be 4-2-2. Sorry for this inconvenience.

</snip>

The drop in the third group actually makes things much simpler - I daresay hp [leaves] counted in the third group and Nat forgot (that's either a robot Mafia or a count of Neutrals, still leaning towards the latter since SKmillerVi should show up on the count somewhere). Count today is probably 4-1-1 or 4-2-1, depending on whether Nat is now town or Mafia.

Veerus (or maybe Isacc) is neutral, MafiaSSK is Mafia, Natirasha is probably Mafia.

[Tarhalindur]

I'm confused.. 4-2-2 at that stage would've made no sense since we had 9 players. I think this is mod WIFOM in an attempt to cover his ass since he is now part of the mafia.

There *were* four kills that went through D1 (Nat hammered, Zwet nuked by Supersaint kill, hp [leaves] killed by my hand, Kinetic died for unknown reasons).

Two new relevant possibilities: Kinetic has the Lain mechanic and Nat forgot he was supposed to be invisible (if so it's DEFINITELY 2x scum faction, with faction 1 being a robot Mafia) OR Nat resurrected as G-Man.

[UnofficialRulerOfEveryone]

I agree with Tar's latest analysis of the setup speculation...

At this point, I support an Isacc hammer.