Mini 692: Boost Mafia (Game Over!)

[eldarad]

Funnily enough, I dreamt about this game last night, and woke up with a strong urge to boost GC and lynch Xtoxm...

I also want Incog to fully justify why he wants to vig me, so that everyone can see his reasoning.

[Green Crayons]

Funnily enough, I dreamt about this game last night, and woke up with a strong urge to boost GC and lynch Xtoxm...

No amount of scepticism and criticism has yet enabled me to regard dreams as negligible occurrences. Often enough they appear senseless, but it is obviously we who lack the sense and ingenuity to read the enigmatic message from the nocturnal realm of the psyche. ... Nobody doubts the importance of conscious experience; why then should we doubt the significance of unconscious happenings? They also are part of our life, and sometimes more truly a part of it for weal or woe than any happenings of the day.

Outside of that, I'm waiting for RR's catch up and Incog's promised imput on my musings.

[Incognito]

I haven't been prodded yet, but I'm posting to let you all know I haven't forgotten about you. It's been a busy few days for me, but I'll have a (real) post in tomorrow.

[Raging Rabbit]

I finished reading page 52 and unfortunately don't have the time to catch up further, but I'll be extremely surprised if the last two scum aren't among Xtoxm, eld and GC, and eld is more likely than GC. That whole "the scum must be two of the Incog boosters, and hey, let's boost a vanilla today!" just reeks of scum.

[Raging Rabbit]

Read up, I'm liking eld less and less and GC is looking better. More later.

[eldarad]

That whole "the scum must be two of the Incog boosters, and hey, let's boost a vanilla today!" just reeks of scum.

How does it reek of scum? Which bit?
Do both parts individually reek of scum, or is it the combination that reeks of scum? HOW do they reek of scum?

How does "two of the Incog boosters are scum" differ from your stated position that the scum are amongst {people who aren't you and Incog}
What makes your opinion fine, but my opinion scummy?
I'd also like to hear how your opinion has changed since. What things have I done that make you think I am more scummy than before? How is GC less scummy?

Since you now think GC is town and you are voting for Xtoxm, I assume you approve of the plan - you know, the one that I dreamt - to boost GC and lynch Xtoxm.

[Raging Rabbit]

Do both parts individually reek of scum, or is it the combination that reeks of scum? HOW do they reek of scum?

Both are individually somewhat scummy, and the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

How does "two of the Incog boosters are scum" differ from your stated position that the scum are amongst {people who aren't you and Incog}
What makes your opinion fine, but my opinion scummy?

Simple - I never demanded the entire town to recognize the two last scum must be among everyone but the near confirmed an myself. You're smart enough to know full well that there's no reason for anyone who isn't seeing things from your prespective to agree, and therefore your use of that argument is likely contrived.

As for pushing for a boost on vanilla, it's a completely unnecassary risk at a near LYLO situation, and since you're simultaneously trying to get everyone to think of you as confirmed, I'd say it's fairly obvious you're indirectly pushing for your own boost. And that, off course, is a huge benefit for scum-you and a very questionable one for town-you. So, it's a play much more likely to be attempted by scum.

I'd also like to hear how your opinion has changed since. What things have I done that make you think I am more scummy than before?

I just answered that.

How is GC less scummy?

His last couple of posts give off a town vibe to me, especially 1321. I'm still not sure about him, but he's mostly a suspect through process of elimination since Incog and TDC I'm pretty sure are town, so if I'm wrong about either you or Xtoxm he's the only other plausible scum.

Since you now think GC is town and you are voting for Xtoxm, I assume you approve of the plan - you know, the one that I dreamt - to boost GC and lynch Xtoxm.

No, I support boosting and lynching Xtoxm or boosting and lynching you. There's no reason to take a risk with GC, and even if I was to decide I want to boost a claimed vanilla I'd push either TDC or myself over GC.

I wonder what MS dreams look like.

[Incognito]

Okay so here's Part 1 of my owed post. I'm gonna try to just type this up quoting as little as possible. This thread has enough quote blocks as it is.

Responding to Green Crayons:

Okay, so you've indicated why your suspicions boil down to Xtoxm, Raging Rabbit, and TDC and you've further broken those three down into the pairings that you see as the most likely (RR/TDC and TDC/Xtoxm). To arrive at these two pairings, you've used evidence based off of interactions that you noticed particularly between Raging Rabbit and sthar8/Xtoxm (Raging Rabbit has consistently pushed for the lynch of this role since around Day 1). What about the D1 wagon on scum though and the interactions shown there between your remaining candidates for scum and the only known scum we have in this game so far? Have you factored that into your decision at all? Do you see evidence that would suggest that RR/TDC likely bussed Jahudo?

Re TDC: Okay, so again you've basically re-stated that you think TDC has been actively lurking and you've pointed to a specific time period where you think this active lurking was especially prevalent. I've read through TDC, and I never got an active lurking feel though, so I think if you're really going to want to try and convince me and everyone else that TDC is guilty of what you're calling him out for, you might want to pick out a few posts that better illustrate this.

Re your TDC-boost-Vanilla comments: I still can't see any reason why TDC would or should have known that a Boost would have no effect on him even if he has the same Vanilla Role PM that was provided to us by the mod. Here is the opening passage from the mod's first cutscene:

Each day, through a combination of strange herbs, placebo effect, and possibly some other force, you can choose to make two of your number stronger and more intelligent. The precise effects are untested and mostly unknown, and great care should be taken not to aid your enemies, but properly used, this could provide your village with the edge it needs to ensure peace again.

To me, it looks like the mod was trying to be as non-descript as possible so that we wouldn't be able to figure out which players or roles in particular had the ability to get boosted. If I had been a Vanilla, I probably would have assumed that if I was boosted I might gain something from the boost too. Here was a comment coming from the game's only known vanilla on the first page:

Additionally, didn't Patrick give us the vanilla town PM? It said nothing about powers after boosted. It'd be kind of odd for vanillas to be different from the mod example.

The above seems to imply that iLord thought that if he got boosted, maybe he would still gain a power since the only thing he seemed to find weird about Electra's claim was the fact that she had a

specified

ability when boosted even though she was claiming Vanilla. He confirmed my thoughts here too:

I get what you're saying about your role, but it just seems weird and inelegant to include vanillas that don't know their boost power, and vanillas that do.

Again, iLord's feeling seems to be that even though he's Vanilla, he thought he might gain a power if he's boosted. And finally we have this:

My proposed strategy is for us to just play normally, and then choose two people to boost after we find our lynch, based on how they played during the day.

This is iLord's proposed strategy for playing the game. Based on the above, I highly doubt iLord would have jumped out and said "no guys don't boost me. I don't think it's gonna work" if he had developed a Boost-wagon on him.

Also, Green Crayons, did you even follow the link to your Post 649? Your Post 649 wasn't your replacement post. It was the post where you laid out the massive case against Huntress in the face of a mounting Jahudo-wagon. In between your

real

replacement post and your 649, you spent part of that time debating a bit with Raging Rabbit who was at the time your top suspect. Then you withdrew your suspicion of him and made 649 to illustrate your case on Huntress.

I'll respond to eldarad soon...

[Elmo]

Day 3, Vote Count #6 - Lynching

Green Crayons (3) <- Xtoxm, Incognito, TDC
Xtoxm <- Raging Rabbit

Not voting: Green Crayons, eldarad.

Boost Count

Green Crayons (2) <- Incognito, TDC
Eldarad <- Green Crayons
TDC <- Raging Rabbit

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch/boost. I am

setting a deadline

for Saturday, 14th March 21:00 UTC, which is 14 days, 23 hours and 36 minutes from this post. No majority before deadline means no lynch.

[Raging Rabbit]

For the record, until electra revealed her information I too was sure I'd gain something from being boosted. I don't think this contradicts me being vanilla at all.

[eldarad]

No, I support boosting and lynching Xtoxm or boosting and lynching you. There's no reason to take a risk with GC, and even if I was to decide I want to boost a claimed vanilla I'd push either TDC or myself over GC.

RR, Green Crayons has not claimed to be a vanilla - so my point is that if you think GC is probably town then it makes sense to boost him as he is the only remaining "power" available to the town.
I realise that you forgot/did not realise that GC has claimed. Does that information change your answer?

[Green Crayons]

What about the D1 wagon on scum though and the interactions shown there between your remaining candidates for scum and the only known scum we have in this game so far? Have you factored that into your decision at all? Do you see evidence that would suggest that RR/TDC likely bussed Jahudo?

Admittedly, no. I haven't really payed too terribly much attention to the end of D1 activities in such a light. This game has been massive and the hard fact of the matter is that I (nor anyone else, really) cannot find or use every action within the universe of this game to factor into our equations as to who is scum/innocent. This does not discount the importance of your question, just merely why I have not asked myself to contend with this aspect of the game. In short, it simply just hasn't crossed my mind.

But your question is a very generic one (would scum buss their GF on D1?) and I don't know if there are any specific qualities in this games that would help someone determine their opinion to this question outside of their generic response ("Yes, scum would be willing to buss their GF D1"/"No, scum would not do such a thing"). Are you suggesting there are actions that can be seen that would point an objective observer to an answer more likely than the other for RR/TDC (because if so, I'm all ears)?

Also, Green Crayons, did you even follow the link to your Post 649? Your Post 649 wasn't your replacement post. It was the post where you laid out the massive case against Huntress in the face of a mounting Jahudo-wagon. In between your real replacement post and your 649, you spent part of that time debating a bit with Raging Rabbit who was at the time your top suspect. Then you withdrew your suspicion of him and made 649 to illustrate your case on Huntress.

Also, Incog, did you even read my follow up post 1313 here? Context is everything. I explained that I my replacement post listed had Huntress, RR and Jahundo as leaning scum, and my two follow-up posts were focused on explaining why I felt as if these players deserved my scrutiny. In fact, in my replacement post, I said:

This is mostly just pure feeling from posts I've seen. I'll be using this template to base my further review of the thread, but I thought I would at least contribute my general sentiments towards what kind of vibes I'm getting from players.

Which is why I followed it up with 559, where I voiced my lengthy suspicions of RR at the time. And then why in 563 I told RR:

For now I'm just wonderin' why isn't GC voting me.

Because as of now you're the only person from my "leaning scummy" list that I've pulled direct examples of why I feel that you're scummy (the list being compiled based solely off of my feelings from an initial read-through). I don't want to vote prematurely if I find that, as a whole, one of the other two I have as scummish are a better place for my vote.

That said,

unvote

. I initially thought my previous spot-holder wasn't voting, but I double checked and apparently my/their vote had been cast.

...I was wanting to hold off voting before I explained my suspicions behind Jahundo and Huntress. But before I did that I needed to follow up with my RR's suspicions in 583 for the sake of being thorough.

Also, the post you called into question comes after 612, where I once again voice my support for the Jahudno/Huntress suspicions while explaining that it's a complicated game and a daunting task to replace in on page twenty something.


So, by the time that we

do

get to 649, I'm simply continuing with what I said I was going to do in my very first replacement post: explaining my suspicions of the three scummiest players (in my eyes at the time). As I finished with RR, I moved on to Huntress. And since the deadline was only three days away at the time, I put my vote on Huntress before being able to explain in detail (as I did earlier with RR and there with Huntress) my suspicions of Jahundo. I did, however, add this at the end of my 649 post:

vote: Huntress

. I'll need to do a reread of Jahudo tonight/tomorrow if I can find time to do so, but I don't recall him being more scummy to me than Huntress. I do, however, feel comfortable enough with either being lynched today, so if I find that Jahudo is more lynch-worthy than Huntress I'll switch over.

It wasn't that Huntress was more suspicious than Jahundo, or the other way around. It was just that I only was able to put the large amount of time and effort into dissecting my suspicions of one of those players, and it just so happened to be Huntress. At the same time, I was still open to a Jahundo lynch because in my initial read through of the game I felt as if he, Huntress and RR were all leaning scum.

Which actually puts your beef with my 649 (it being so "logical" and not based off of "gut") in a bit of perspective. I did my read through of the game and it was "...Mostly just pure feeling from posts I've seen" (that's my quote, from my replacement post) that led me to suspect RR, Huntress and Jahundo. It was only after that initial read through where my gut told me who to look at more closely did I turn to a more logical approach. Your criticism of my 649 play takes it completely and totally out of the context of my introduction, approach and activity within the game during that time period.

[Raging Rabbit]

No, I support boosting and lynching Xtoxm or boosting and lynching you. There's no reason to take a risk with GC, and even if I was to decide I want to boost a claimed vanilla I'd push either TDC or myself over GC.

RR, Green Crayons has not claimed to be a vanilla - so my point is that if you think GC is probably town then it makes sense to boost him as he is the only remaining "power" available to the town.
I realise that you forgot/did not realise that GC has claimed. Does that information change your answer?

Hmm, that does change things. We need to decide whether possibly granting GC an extra power if he's scum is worth the track he gains if he's telling the truth. I'd say it's a good move if we lynch right and a far too risky one if we mislynch, but we can't know that in advance.

[Xtoxm]

Er, no.

We're lynching GC. More votes, thnx.

[eldarad]

Hmm, that does change things. We need to decide whether possibly granting GC an extra power if he's scum is worth the track he gains if he's telling the truth. I'd say it's a good move if we lynch right and a far too risky one if we mislynch, but we can't know that in advance.

Right. It will give us a pseudo-cop investigation as the only people with powers will be GC, Incog, and scum. So we'll either catch scum or confirm an innocent.
Having a confirmed innocent in lylo is a good thing, as you know.
Which is why I don't expect GC to last through the Night...but I also think it is useful to force the mafia's hand. If GC does survive the Night we're going to have WIFOM to cope with...but I'm happy to deal with that.

We're also able to distinguish between the mafia kill and the vig kill in the Night message, so if Incog vigs GC he'll have a lot to answer for.

So this is where your town-read on GC becomes important. Plus, if you really think that the scumteam is eldarad-Xtoxm then you have to lynch Xtoxm Today - since Incog is never going to vig Xtoxm but he is very likely to vig me. If Incog is alive at lylo do you think the town will be able to lynch Xtoxm-scum?

vote Xtoxm

Not boosting GC because Xtoxm has an additional vote and is therefore able to hammer GC once we reach a boost majority.

[Xtoxm]

I don't know how far you think you going to get without the confirmed townie's support.

[Xtoxm]

Seriosuly, Incog isn't gonna lynch me. So if I was scum, my "scumbuddy" just has not vote me, then we win at night.

[eldarad]

I don't know how far you think you going to get without the confirmed townie's support.

What do you mean by that?

[eldarad]

whoa...it's like you answered my question before I asked it...

Seriosuly, Incog isn't gonna lynch me. So if I was scum, my "scumbuddy" just has not vote me, then we win at night.

Well then that may be a judgement call that Incog has to make immediately before deadline.
The bonus being that, if Incog does hammer at dealine in preference to no-lynch, and you flip scum, Incog will know who to vig.

[Raging Rabbit]

This exchange makes me doubt the eldarad-Xtoxm scumteam very much, which forces me to rethink things. I need to review the early game again, but doubt I'll find the time in the next few days. Xtoxm-GC is a possibility, I guees.

[TDC]

Hey there, had no access all last week, but this week's place actually has wifi (though 5€/hour *ugh*). Will try to check in once a day.

I saved the recent pages and will read soon.

[Incognito]

In response to eldarad, like I mentioned, I don't put much stock into the early Skillit-wagon. If GC is town, do I think the scum avoided the wagon? Clearly not. The only person who avoided the wagon of the remaining living people is Raging Rabbit and unless we're dealing with a scum team of two, then even in the event of an RR-scum that would mean a one on, one off type of thing happened early on with that wagon.

OK, so...would you say that your reasoning - that I made the iLord-Guardian-Incog link in order to make the three of you suspicious of each other - holds water given that it made you more suspicious of me?

If you're scum, you'd have no way of knowing I was a power role let alone a vig so you'd have had no clue on Day 1 whether or not Guardian would have survived the night and would have been available for me to continue attacking during Day 2.

How does that theory fit in with the fact that the scum killed iLord that Night?

Given the fact that iLord played

the

major role in Jahudo's lynch, a you-scum would figure that it would be highly unlikely that I'd go after him the next day since he'd be practically confirmed town in my eyes.

I guess the far more relevant question is: "Do YOU believe GC's claim?"

Well, I'm voting him and still pushing for his lynch, so I guess that would mean I don't believe his claim. The point is his claim isn't the only reason I'm voting him and disbelieving him. There were things I noticed in GC's play outside of claim stuff that I found scummy. Your suspicions of GC seem completely related to his claim which seems odd to me.

And finally about my town read of RR, yeah, I still think he's probably town.

vote Xtoxm

Not boosting GC because Xtoxm has an additional vote and is therefore able to hammer GC once we reach a boost majority.

Really, really dislike this vote for obvious reasons. I wish I was a dayvig right about now. Who do you think is Xtoxm's most likely buddy?

@Green Crayons:

Part of your TDC-suspicion was based on the fact that TDC didn't attempt to push the early TDC-boostwagon off of himself despite the fact that he's now claimed Vanilla. What do you make of eldarad's recent suggestions of pushing for the boosting of a Vanilla? Do you think this makes him look scummy?

[Incognito]

Xtoxm, if you'd like a GC-lynch, you need to also boost him. I don't think you're boosting anyone atm.

[Xtoxm]

Boost GC

[Incognito]

Am I just hallucinating or is the whole of 1339 really scummy?